Hot Topic 2016 DRAFT

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Jesus wept.....

Just get a skilled mid in this year's Turkey Shoot draft.

Yes, has to be a mid, preferably with pace because we have so many one paced players, can win contested ball and clearances but do some outside running as well.

If we opt for Taranto over Brodie, I would like to pick up Luke Bunker with #48. Such a natural inside instinct.

 

[thylacine60]

how the **** do you people know so much about never-heard-of teenagers? bunker? luke - billy - bunker? respect........

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

how the **** do you people know so much about never-heard-of teenagers? bunker? luke - billy - bunker? respect........

 

[RudyBlue]

There isnt a Darcy Parish in this draft, infact this draft apart from McLuggage there isnt really anyone who blows your hair back. Skills all round arent great. Theres good players atm thats about it.

Id take Parish as well unfortunately we can only choose from whats in front of us.

Could well be a draft where lots make it but not many go on to become superstars

 

[thylacine60]

nice! lovely disposal and quality clearance work - unbelievably he featured in just about every piece of footage............

 

[Blubagger71]

[



Exactly, good to excellent foot skills are minimum prerequisite for a top 5 pick.
It would be absurd if a player were to look great finding the pill and then botch up the kicking.

Who said his footskills are poor? That's a big call.

 

[Jimmae]

Believe it not I actually rate Phillips. He showed some promising signs last year. Tall, mobile, athletic and a fairly decent kick...which he demonstrated against Essendon earlier in the season. With more opportunities I can see him turning out alright. No doubt we need more ruck depth but I can see Phillips assuming the no. 1 role soon.

Odd that out of nowhere you've decided to pick my comments as an opportunity to discuss Phillips.

At GWS he was the 4th ruck, and he had some promise, then he ****ed his hamstring pretty severely and was out for an entire season. He's never been the same since.

No longer anywhere near as mobile, but his leap is still good (quads/glutes/calves vs. hammy I suppose). First sprint is OK, but the repeat sprints and change of direction are now garbage. I just don't see him getting another contract if that continues.

Here's him pre-injury, bar the snap at the end:


That's not the bloke we had running around this year, and giving him a contract extension for what he was is the same level of savvyness that saw us cling to Warnock for 6 years.

SOS - The Real Test

While SOS was at GWS, he never needed to draft anyone from pick 30+

Last year, apart from SOSOS, all other picks were in the top 20 (Not counting the Rookie Draft)

In years to come, when we reanalyze the 2016 draft, we will get the first indication as to the skill set of SOS as a recruiter.

My formula, to determine a "Pass" mark for a draft is based on games played for mid round picks in the first 3 rounds:

Example:

Pick 9 - 150 Games
Pick 27 - 100 Games
Pick 45 - 50 Games

More games above these indicators is a bonus, not to mention 4th round + picks. Other factors to consider is quality of games.

I really look forward to seeing who we take with the 4 picks we have in the 3rd and 4th rounds. I hope we don't take the easy option of acquiring DFA with these picks

Keep in mind SOS did have picks after 30 at points, as well as rookie picks (including 2 rookie picks last year). Someone rightly brought up DFAs too.

Close to 80 live picks expected at draft



Reckon we could easily do six.

Glad you're coming around to this.

Setterfield, Perryman, McCreadie, Sproule, Mutch

If Setterfield and Perryman are bid on in the first round, as I suspect they will, GWS will have to go into deficit, if they want to acquire anyone else from their Academy

CFC Pick 5 bid of Setterfield, if they match it, all but wipes out pick 15 & 37
AFC or PAFC could bid on Perryman with 13 or 14, all but wipes out their other 6 picks

Unless they use pick 2 for Setterfield, which they may do.

At 25, I prefer B. Cox, Sproule a close 2nd

I rate McCreadie & Mutch, late 2nd, early 3rd

I would take Sproule with 25, GWS wouldn't have the points if they were looking at taking Setterfield and Perryman early

GWS will leave 11 list spots open for 7 picks (you've left out Lynch in your discussions, he seems a more likely prospect than Dawson Simpson or Downie). Additionally, they have an extra future 2nd next year even when you account for the one they traded away. I think they'd be happy to scorch those a little if it gets them Sproule, Macreadie and Mutch.

They'll delist their final 4 uncontracted players and perhaps sign two back up again after the draft (or pick some kids at the bottom of the draft, say pick 80 odd). They've crashed back to earth with their list balance, but getting those 7 kids will make up for whatever they do with their final 2-4 senior list spots.

AFL.com have an article saying that they expect 75-80 selections to be may in this years draft.
Showing the depth and evenness on offer this year, with the previous two years only producing 60-65 per year.
Also said that Hawthorns first selection is at pick 88, but that pick could turn into pick 66 as clubs use up selections on FS and academy players.
Does this mean our later picks 63,66,70,81 also could come in as much as twenty selections?

Pick 88 will come in a bit, but not to 66, at least not on academy bids alone. We'll have to wait and see how many more players wind up delisted to get an idea of live picks.

As I've said above, GWS will likely see 11 picks get consumed in the process of claiming 7 players, so that's 4 spots, similarly Collingwood will chew up an extra spot for each Father-Son prospect, so that makes 6. GC might have a couple of picks created when matching bids (Bowes @ 3, Scheer @ 12-15, for example), so that takes it back down to 4.

Then there's Jarman, Waterman, and some other Brisbane and GC candidates. Expect those maybe add up to 2 more out of the order. All of those will likely be bid on before 48, certainly before 55 (after which matching bids is free due to a fixed discount), so look for our 4th round picks to slide up 5-7 slots, but I don't see many people passing or leaving themselves out of the first 4 rounds at this stage.

 

[thylacine60]

I don't deserve to clean that post's toilet - respect jimster......

 

[Pafloyul]

under-rated movie - made in qld - pretty cheaply - poor script & lynda stoner - had a mate who was an extra - think they paid him in pineapples

I was lining it up but thought - nah! (Olivia Hussey is good value, though.)

 

[thylacine60]

I may be over-rating my use of the term 'under-rated' - as big a piece of shit as was ever made.

 

[Stig O'Hara]

Beats the arse off facebook.

How many kids did I miss in Year 10. 1980??

Seriously, **** off, you got fat and your other half looks like a horse.

Why look me up??

 

[thylacine60]

so that's a no to the reunion?

 

[Pafloyul]

 

[Stig O'Hara]

so that's a no to the reunion?

****, hell, no.

Never, ever, go back.

Honestly.......I push the like button on the photos from all sorts of obvious Europe.

My Brother Jack.

It's not even that good a book, but when he gets up on the roof, and everyone is the same.....

 

[thylacine60]

should make an appearance, Numbers - you might win voted most likely to make an appearance whilst ****ed up

 

[Stig O'Hara]

At least I'm interesting.

 

[Old navy]

Odd that out of nowhere you've decided to pick my comments as an opportunity to discuss Phillips.

At GWS he was the 4th ruck, and he had some promise, then he stuffed his hamstring pretty severely and was out for an entire season. He's never been the same since.

No longer anywhere near as mobile, but his leap is still good (quads/glutes/calves vs. hammy I suppose). First sprint is OK, but the repeat sprints and change of direction are now garbage. I just don't see him getting another contract if that continues.

Here's him pre-injury, bar the snap at the end:


That's not the bloke we had running around this year, and giving him a contract extension for what he was is the same level of savvyness that saw us cling to Warnock for 6 years.


Keep in mind SOS did have picks after 30 at points, as well as rookie picks (including 2 rookie picks last year). Someone rightly brought up DFAs too.


Glad you're coming around to this.



GWS will leave 11 list spots open for 7 picks (you've left out Lynch in your discussions, he seems a more likely prospect than Dawson Simpson or Downie). Additionally, they have an extra future 2nd next year even when you account for the one they traded away. I think they'd be happy to scorch those a little if it gets them Sproule, Macreadie and Mutch.

They'll delist their final 4 uncontracted players and perhaps sign two back up again after the draft (or pick some kids at the bottom of the draft, say pick 80 odd). They've crashed back to earth with their list balance, but getting those 7 kids will make up for whatever they do with their final 2-4 senior list spots.


Pick 88 will come in a bit, but not to 66, at least not on academy bids alone. We'll have to wait and see how many more players wind up delisted to get an idea of live picks.

As I've said above, GWS will likely see 11 picks get consumed in the process of claiming 7 players, so that's 4 spots, similarly Collingwood will chew up an extra spot for each Father-Son prospect, so that makes 6. GC might have a couple of picks created when matching bids (Bowes @ 3, Scheer @ 12-15, for example), so that takes it back down to 4.

Then there's Jarman, Waterman, and some other Brisbane and GC candidates. Expect those maybe add up to 2 more out of the order. All of those will likely be bid on before 48, certainly before 55 (after which matching bids is free due to a fixed discount), so look for our 4th round picks to slide up 5-7 slots, but I don't see many people passing or leaving themselves out of the first 4 rounds at this stage.

Ok I get that. So our pick 25, will end up being more like pick 29/30. Pick 48 will most likely stay around the same mark, give or take.
Pick 63 into around pick 55. Pick 66 into around 59 and pick 70 into around pick 60ish.

 

[thylacine60]

At least I'm interesting.

true that - so is michaelia's hairstyle though........

 

[thylacine60]

give me 25 or 6 to 4 or give me death - maybe saturday in the park - hey, there's our game-day song right there!

 

[TheCoach16]

so that's a no to the reunion?

****, hell, no.

Never, ever, go back.

Good call Stig. I made the mistake of going to a 25 year reunion a few years back... Only because I wanted to show Jane Jones (not her real name) how hot MrsCoach is... Take that Jane!

But I've never had so many conversations that started with the sentence "hey, you know who died..?"

 

[Jimmae]

Ok I get that. So our pick 25, will end up being more like pick 29/30. Pick 48 will most likely stay around the same mark, give or take.
Pick 63 into around pick 55. Pick 66 into around 59 and pick 70 into around pick 60ish.

More like: 31, 44, 56, etc.

 

[FootyGeek]

I think our biggest mistake was just not turning our list over enough.

This is the number one issue.

The list must be turned over constantly until you have a group of players who can cut it.

Menzel is the perfect example (I personally liked him as a player in the first couple of years but had no idea about attitude on the track). Old Carlton would have kept someone like him on the list for 8 years hoping he would come good. New Carlton identifies a problem and acts.

In the case of Menzel we get some value back, in the case of those lower down the rungs they get delisted. This is how footy clubs should operate.

The only caveat of course is you need people in the footy department who know how to make the hard calls and know who is good to keep and who to move on.

To summarise.

Before - a) we did not identify problems and act on them, and b) did not have the people to even be able to do this.
Now - a) we try to identify problems and act on them, and b) we hope we have the people who are able to do this.

One of these things is better than the other. One at least has a chance to work.

 

[Blue and Silver]

SOS - The Real Test

While SOS was at GWS, he never needed to draft anyone from pick 30+

Last year, apart from SOSOS, all other picks were in the top 20 (Not counting the Rookie Draft)

In years to come, when we reanalyze the 2016 draft, we will get the first indication as to the skill set of SOS as a recruiter.

My formula, to determine a "Pass" mark for a draft is based on games played for mid round picks in the first 3 rounds:

Example:

Pick 9 - 150 Games
Pick 27 - 100 Games
Pick 45 - 50 Games

More games above these indicators is a bonus, not to mention 4th round + picks. Other factors to consider is quality of games.

I really look forward to seeing who we take with the 4 picks we have in the 3rd and 4th rounds. I hope we don't take the easy option of acquiring DFA with these picks

SOS Draft history outside the first round:

2011 - Tom Downie, Setanta O'halpin, James McDonald, Sam Frost
2012 - James Stewart, Bret Thornton, Joseph Redfern, Zac Williams
2013 - Rory Lobb, Jake Barrett, Jed Lamb, Sam Schulz,
2014 - Pat Mckenna, Jack Steele, Jeremy Finlayson

It's not a stellar bunch, but there are lots of mature-age recruits in there and many of those picks are zone selections.

In many ways SOS has never been under much pressure to pick a diamond out of the pile so it will be interesting reviewing the next few years

 

[Azul]

Good call Stig. I made the mistake of going to a 25 year reunion a few years back... Only because I wanted to show Jane Jones (not her real name) how hot MrsCoach is... Take that Jane!

My 25th would have been this year, I think. But there's no MrsAzul and besides, I went to an all boys school. I have no interest in them rubbing in my face about how they have 4 kids, a yacht and 2 investment properties.

Only just this week someone asked what school I went to and I thought "really?"

 

[Funk]

Looks the kind of player the Dogs would be all over.