Hot Topic 2016 DRAFT

[Malifice]

Elite talent is different to elite performance currently.

You're gauging eliteness at AFL level based on performances as a junior, or off a single game or two where they showed glimpses in the seniors?

Elite is elite. Simply being a 1st round draft pick isnt enough. Simpson is elite because he's proven to be regardless of where he was drafted.

We have a decent bunch of 1st rounders from last year. Hopefully some of them will become elite (or at the very least, 200 game A graders). We dont know yet. And even (best case scenario) if they all turn out to be bona fide AFL players, we're still miles in the red in terms of talent due to 10 years of blown/ wasted drafts.

And personally I have high hopes for Sumner even if some pessimists dont.

Deserves another year I agree. But dropping his name in a list of 'young talent' at the club, is indicative of just how much work we have to do.

 

[Malifice]

Imo pretty sure gws are not giving up those 4 for a 2nd rounder and a bunch of later picks . Dont care what the points add up to .

Why? Its perfect for them. Those points add up to a pick 5 value (spread out over two years, and they'll put a premium on picks/ points in next years draft).

Why would they accept (say pick 7) which is 300 points less for them?

Remember; they dont care about picks. Only points.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

You're gauging eliteness at AFL level based on performances as a junior, or off a single game or two where they showed glimpses in the seniors?

Elite is elite. Simply being a 1st round draft pick isnt enough. Simpson is elite because he's proven to be regardless of where he was drafted.

We have a decent bunch of 1st rounders from last year. Hopefully some of them will become elite (or at the very least, 200 game A graders). We dont know yet. And even (best case scenario) if they all turn out to be bona fide AFL players, we're still miles in the red in terms of talent due to 10 years of blown/ wasted drafts.



Deserves another year I agree. But dropping his name in a list of 'young talent' at the club, is indicative of just how much work we have to do.

By that logic we may as well trade all our first round picks away for tonnes of picks in the late rounds, it's all just glimpses and teases of form after all.
No point in being pessimistic about our players for the point of it. It wont change how they'll turn out, may as well lean to the positive side.

 

[coryne]

The trick is, if GCS reach pick 5 and no-one has bid on Bowes, they dont select him with 5, and instead just take best available. If a bid is then made on Bowes with pick 6 (and they match it) they pay for that pick with their next selection. (and get a free hit at pick 5, and take Bowes at 6).

GCS have no need for 'pick 5' they only need points. Pick 5 is worth 1,878 points. If we (say) offer to trade them enough picks (points) that add up to 1900 points or more (in exchange for pick 5) they'll jump at it.
.

Sorry but these two points contradict each other and are the crux as to who trades which do not provide the expansion club SUBSTANTIALLY MORE points wont work.


Why would the gcs give up the chance to recruit a player at #5 for a tiny upgrade in points? Would you rather the chance of recruiting someone at #5 AND getting Bowes or gain 100 points which effectively influences nothing? Worst case taking 100 points off their next selection moves it down the draft order a couple of places .......


A net gain of 400-500 points may be somethingto consider but 100 pointsis relatively nothing and they could do better elsewhere.....

 

[LanceRomance]

Malifice

I'd be surprised if Plowman didnt end up elite.

 

[Malifice]

Why would the gcs give up the chance to recruit a player at #5 for a tiny upgrade in points?

Because they wont be recruiting a player with 5. Bowes will be bid on in the top 3. Heck, if we dont bid on him at 4 should he still be available I'll scream.

Remember, GCS are already getting Richmonds 1st rounder (Prestia) and whatever JOM is worth.

GWS will amost certainly be taking Freos 1st rounder at pick 2 off them (in exchange for 2 firsts and McCarthy) so the Dockers have the currency to pay for Hill, and maintain a presence in the draft. I expect the Hill pick to be handed over to GCS by the Hawks as part of the payment for JOM as well.

Would you rather the chance of recruiting someone at #5 AND getting Bowes or gain 100 points which effectively influences nothing? Worst case taking 100 points off their next selection moves it down the draft order a couple of places .......

It doesnt influence nothing. The more points the Suns get, the more room they have to trade out exess points this year for more 1st round draft picks next year.

But I otherwise agree. If GCS think there wont be a bid on Bowes before 5 comes around, they should hold onto 5. We have pick 4 so can easily let them know that isnt happening though.

 

[Malifice]

Malifice

I'd be surprised if Plowman didnt end up elite.

Maybe, but he's no Rance yet. At present he's an AFL quality 200 gamer 3rd tall defender.

 

[Iamcarlton]

F

Why? Its perfect for them. Those points add up to a pick 5 value (spread out over two years, and they'll put a premium on picks/ points in next years draft).

Why would they accept (say pick 7) which is 300 points less for them?

Remember; they dont care about picks. Only points.

With the salary cap going up and the clearing of some fringe players on good coin i believe over the next couple of years gws in particular are going to want as many high picks as possible. And use those high picks maybe just 1 or 2 picks to entice some established stars from other clubs . Probably from lower clubs a long way from a premiership and give themselves an even better chance of snagging a flag or 4 . Its not all about academy players and points imo .

 

[Jimmae]

Remember; they dont care about picks. Only points.

In 2016, what's their 2017 academy crop like?

 

[Malifice]

By that logic we may as well trade all our first round picks away for tonnes of picks in the late rounds, it's all just glimpses and teases of form after all.

No you're just relying on players not selected yet, or players who havent played a game yet as 'elite talent'.

We've had what... 10 x 1st round/ top 25 draft picks over the past 10 or so years turn out to be delisted or traded. Lets not jump the gun with the kids and start talking them up as the messiahs. Its been a problem at our club for way too long.

No point in being pessimistic about our players for the point of it. It wont change how they'll turn out, may as well lean to the positive side.

Im not being pessimistic mate. Im being objective, and you're being optimistic.

Nothing wrong with that of course. But It does make arguments and discussions about what we need to do difficult. The reality is we have a massive dearth fo young talent due to a decade of blown drafts and wasted picks. Thats why we wil finish this year bottom 4. The worst part of it is that we havent felt the worst of it yet. When the good players selected before that decade of failed drafts retires (Murphy, Gibbs, Simmo etc) there is a massive gap of talent in the next age bracket (22-26 year olds at present) to take up the slack.

Those chickens chickens havent come home to roost yet, and youre talking finals next year? Lets be objective and discuss how to fix that issue.

 

[Malifice]

In 2016, what's their 2017 academy crop like?

They will have a ton of 1st rounders this year. The one they currently have at 5, one more for Presia, and 1-2 more for JOM. Plus the 3-4 second rounders they currently have.

One they are happy they have enough points to pay for the academy blokes this year, they'll trade out excess picks (1st rounders) for more 1st rounders next year.

They should have enough points this year to grab all the academy blokes they want, and still have enough left over to be able to trade out a 1st round pick or two, for first round picks in 2017's draft.

Even if there are no academy blokes next year, they wont care very much with 3 1st rounders at their disposal.

I keep saying it, but the system the AFL have put into place the past few years (ontrading picks, points, academies) favors GCS/ GWS up the wazoo. The AFL's priority number one has been the expansion sides, and by God they've looked after them. They'll be able to milk 3-4 1st round picks in every draft for the forseeable future, and then pay for 1st round picks with points gathered from 2nd, 3rd rounders (with a hefty discount on top) matching any bid that comes their way.

GWS should win the flag next year or come close to it, and then go to the draft with 3-4 1st rounders (enough points to pick up half a dozen discounted 1st round academy players). And again the next year. And the year after. And so on.

We have to offload vets to improve our draft position (which just strengthens the expansion sides even more) or tip in excess points to get some of those 1st rounders off the expansion teams (which again improves their position in the draft even more!).

I still dont think people know exactly what is coming over the next decade or so with those two sides.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

They will have a ton of 1st rounders this year. The one they currently have at 5, one more for Presia, and 1-2 more for JOM. Plus the 3-4 second rounders they currently have.

One they are happy they have enough points to pay for the academy blokes this year, they'll trade out excess picks (1st rounders) for more 1st rounders next year.

They should have enough points this year to grab all the academy blokes they want, and still have enough left over to be able to trade out a 1st round pick or two, for first round picks in 2017's draft.

Even if there are no academy blokes next year, they wont care very much with 3 1st rounders at their disposal.

I keep saying it, but the system the AFL have put into place the past few years (ontrading picks, points, academies) favors GCS/ GWS up the wazoo. The AFL's priority number one has been the expansion sides, and by God they've looked after them. They'll be able to milk 3-4 1st round picks in every draft for the forseeable future, and then pay for 1st round picks with points gathered from 2nd, 3rd rounders (with a hefty discount on top) matching any bid that comes their way.

GWS should win the flag next year or come close to it, and then go to the draft with 3-4 1st rounders (enough points to pick up half a dozen discounted 1st round academy players). And again the next year. And the year after. And so on.

We have to offload vets to improve our draft position (which just strengthens the expansion sides even more) or tip in excess points to get some of those 1st rounders off the expansion teams (which again improves their position in the draft even more!).

I still dont think people know exactly what is coming over the next decade or so with those two sides.

This is exactly why we need to get as many first rounders in the next two drafts as we can.

This year, we only have our pick. That means we need to let go of our good older players. It's a tough call but it has to be made.

Gibbs will be 28 by the time next season starts. We are at least 3 years away from challenging for a top 4 position. He'll be 31 by then. Is he going to be more beneficial to us than a 21 year old Venables/McGrath/Marshall? If the answer is no, then he needs to be shopped around for a pick that will get us one of those guys. Offer him up to Port for their first rounder.

Touhy will be 27 and turns 28 next year (in Dec) at age 30 is he more beneficial than a 21 year old Clarke/Scrimshaw? Again if the answer is no, then we need to ship him off to Sydney for their first rounder or GWS for one of their late first rounders.

Also, we should try and offer Cas + pick#41 to Brisbane for their 2017 second rounder. Then, we offer our 2017 second rounder along with the Brisbane 2017 second rounder and the Dogs third rounder to GWS for Marchbank, Tomlinson and pick #15. Get the feeling that GWS will jump at the offer of 2 future second rounders and it gives us a chance to get both Clarke and Scrimshaw...

Our second rounder this year we could spend on a player like Battle.

Next year, we need to keep our top 10 pick, then we need to add another first rounder through trades and I want us to go after another top 10 pick by offering up our 2018 first rounder. The logic behind that is by 2018 I expect us to finish high enough to be pushing for finals so losing our first rounder will not be so costly. There's also the chance that Ben will be highly rated among the top 10 and we can pick him up with our second/third rounders.

Three first rounders this year with 2/3 being top 10 and another three next year again with 2/3 being top 10 and we will have a good core group of young talented players.

So if it all works out,
we will lose: Gibbs, Touhy, Casboult and some picks for next year's second round
but we gain: Pick #8, #15 and #17, Marchbank and Tomlinson

We could draft: Ainsworth, Venables, Scrimshaw, Clarke and Battle

And add another 3 top kids next year. That's 9 potential kids that will form our best 22 along with a depth player in Tomlinson who has the potential to come good as well.

Add those to Docherty, Weitering, Plowman, Byrne, Cripps, Silvagni, C.Curnow, McKay and Cuningham. Add Ben Silvagni in 2018 and that totals to 20 talented young players. Give them a few years together...

 

[Jimmae]

They will have a ton of 1st rounders this year. The one they currently have at 5, one more for Presia, and 1-2 more for JOM. Plus the 3-4 second rounders they currently have.

I was asking about GWS.

 

[Malifice]

I was asking about GWS.

They have 3 x 1st rounders ar present.

Plus whatever they get for WHE, McCarthy, Marchbank, Steele, Tomlinson, and Stewart. Maybe more.

That's at least 2 more 1st round picks in points there. Probably closer to 3.

And they look to reliably get first access to 4-5 first round kids via the academy with a 20 percent discount this year on top.

My gut tells me they'll get pick 2 from Freo for 8 and 15 and McCarthy. Freo will send 15 to the Hawks for Hill. Hawks to ontrade that pick and their own 1st to GCS for JOM.

 

[Ti22]

We need midfielders, midfielders, midfielders, and more midfielders.

India, Bombay, Kalina

 

[Malifice]

We need midfielders, midfielders, midfielders, and more midfielders.

India, Bombay, Kalina

Key forward and a mid or two for mine.

 

[Ti22]

Key forward and a mid or two for mine.

Yes but we have some young guns up forward then we have Big Ben coming in we are covered for forwards?

India, Bombay, Kalina

 

[Sin City]

We need midfielders, midfielders, midfielders, and more midfielders.

India, Bombay, Kalina

No doubt. When to get them is the interesting question. Another year spent loading up on quality talls has merit as well. It lengthens our rebuild for sure, but also means our tall stocks are shored up for the next ten years.

We have a pick this year that can get us a quality midfielder for sure and also with our 2nd rounder, 2 x third rounders and whatever players we trade out we have the ability to trade up into the first round again so if we opt to start building the midfield this year and next we could pull off a three year rebuild if it all goes to plan. We could also completely shore up our tall stocks this year and spent the next 5-6 drafts building an elite midfield. Either of these methods can be successful if done properly.

 

[Ti22]

No doubt. When to get them is the interesting question. Another year spent loading up on quality talls has merit as well. It lengthens our rebuild for sure, but also means our tall stocks are shored up for the next ten years.

We have a pick this year that can get us a quality midfielder for sure and also with our 2nd rounder, 2 x third rounders and whatever players we trade out we have the ability to trade up into the first round again so if we opt to start building the midfield this year and next we could pull off a three year rebuild if it all goes to plan. We could also completely shore up our tall stocks this year and spent the next 5-6 drafts building an elite midfield. Either of these methods can be successful if done properly.

I agree. But the need of the hour is the middle, like I have already mentioned we have a good young crop of forwards. If we can snag some quality midfielders we are glib to be OK in the long haul.

India, Bombay, Kalina

 

[Malifice]

Yes but we have some young guns up forward then we have Big Ben coming in we are covered for forwards?

India, Bombay, Kalina

We have 1 key forward. McKay.

We have heaps of Mids. For another 3 years at least Murphy, Curnow, Gibbs, Cripps, Kruezer, Thomas, Boeky, Conners, Graham, Whiley, Sumner will do.

We need to start getting mids in of course. But the midfield won't be assembled for another 4 or so years, and it'll happen gradually. It takes 3-4 years for Key PP types to develop. Also, young gun mids are easier to trade for than are forwards.

I want a key forward and 2 quality mids.

 

[Ti22]

We have 1 key forward. McKay.

We have heaps of Mids. For another 3 years at least Murphy, Curnow, Gibbs, Cripps, Kruezer, Thomas, Boeky, Conners, Graham, Whiley, Sumner will do.

We need to start getting mids in of course. But the midfield won't be assembled for another 4 or so years, and it'll happen gradually. It takes 3-4 years for Key PP types to develop. Also, young gun mids are easier to trade for than are forwards.

I want a key forward and 2 quality mids.

That sounds good, would have liked Presta but if the stories are true he is heading to the Tigers them who else?

India, Bombay, Kalina

 

[Ti22]

We have 1 key forward. McKay.

We have heaps of Mids. For another 3 years at least Murphy, Curnow, Gibbs, Cripps, Kruezer, Thomas, Boeky, Conners, Graham, Whiley, Sumner will do.

We need to start getting mids in of course. But the midfield won't be assembled for another 4 or so years, and it'll happen gradually. It takes 3-4 years for Key PP types to develop. Also, young gun mids are easier to trade for than are forwards.

I want a key forward and 2 quality mids.

That sounds good, would have liked Presta but if the stories are true he is heading to the Tigers then who else?

India, Bombay, Kalina

 

[Malifice]

That sounds good, would have liked Presta but if the stories are true he is heading to the Tigers then who else?

India, Bombay, Kalina

Not this year. We're bottom 4 for a few years yet mate.

Once we're pushing into the 8 on the backs of young talent alone we can look to trade and FA.

We need another 10 or so 1st rounders before we can even think about that.

This draft a key forward and a mid or two.

Once we have 2 key talls developing we can load up on mids over the next 2-3 drafts.

Then comes trades and FA.

 

[Ti22]

Not this year. We're bottom 4 for a few years yet mate.

Once we're pushing into the 8 on the backs of young talent alone we can look to trade and FA.

We need another 10 or so 1st rounders before we can even think about that.

This draft a key forward and a mid or two.

Once we have 2 key talls developing we can load up on mids over the next 2-3 drafts.

Then comes trades and FA.

Yeah that's a good way of looking at it, we are at least another 3 years away from a finals berth.

India, Bombay, Kalina

 

[Blue_Fusion]

We have 1 key forward. McKay.

We have heaps of Mids. For another 3 years at least Murphy, Curnow, Gibbs, Cripps, Kruezer, Thomas, Boeky, Conners, Graham, Whiley, Sumner will do.

We need to start getting mids in of course. But the midfield won't be assembled for another 4 or so years, and it'll happen gradually. It takes 3-4 years for Key PP types to develop. Also, young gun mids are easier to trade for than are forwards.

I want a key forward and 2 quality mids.

It's all about the timing. This year the only highly rated key forward is Marshall. He doesn't have much competition and imo having him and McKay in the same forward line won't work.

I've said it a million times but I'll say it again: we need to get another top ten pick and grab Ainsworth + Venables.

Forward line:

Wright C.Curnow Venables

Silvagni McKay Ainsworth

Charlie, Ainsworth and Venables all have x-factor and can impact games. Jack is a smart footballer, positions himself well and McKay is the main target. In a couple of years, we'll add Ben Silvagni. That's a complete forward line, good mix of height and talent.

Our backline needs a young FB, we have JGM but I'd prefer if we grabbed Marchbank. We will need to replace Simpson eventually and Touhy if we trade him. We can't solve all of our problems in 2 drafts but if we can complete our forward line and improve our backline whilst also grabbing some mids this year that would be great.

So when are we going to add mids? Well, if we get that first rounder for Touhy and we can obtain a late first from GWS as I said just before, then we can get Clarke and Scrimshaw. Has to be next year though and also as I said before, we need 3 first round picks in 2017 with 2 being top 10.