Hot Topic 2016 DRAFT

[coryne]

REALLY stupid question. Would we consider a trade of #5 for #8, #21 and #22 ??? It would give the GCS x2 selections in a row (most likely on top of Bowes) and would give us x4 top 25 selections (and x3 in a row between 21 and 23). If it looks like the GCS will get a free swing at Bowes (I can't see anyone bidding on him in the top 3) then you would expect that we would be picking from whoever falls from McCluggage, Brodie, SPS, McGrath and Ainsworth, I would love ANY of those guys !!!!!! That said all that you need is a couple of bolters/reaches such as a Fremantle going for Marshall/English or a bid coming in on Perryman and then you could still, potentially, have one of those kids available at #8. If we did do the trade and Freo then bid on Bowes then we could have 2 of those guys falling through to #8 ......... And the worst case scenario, we take a Scrimshaw or Venables......


What would the tallent between #21 and #23 be like ??? Worth risking a chance at one of the top 5 to nab some more depth players ???

 

[Malifice]

REALLY stupid question. Would we consider a trade of #5 for #8, #21 and #22 ???

Absolutely. We'd be mad not to, but GCS would be even crazier offering it.

A 3 pick downgrade for 2 extra early second rounders? We make out like bandits.

The more I look at the so-called top (draft) crop this year, the more I think there are no stand-outs, which must increase the likelihood we trade the first pick we have (5). The experts say there's no stand-out and my eyes agree with the experts.

By no standouts, that means no clear pick 1. The top half a dozen are all very even, it then drops off over the next half dozen (who are also pretty close) and then evens out from the mid teens to the 30's before dopping off sharply.

Normally its more of a steep drop off. Its kinda got about 2-3 plateaus this year.

 

[Blue and Silver]

We got Everitt on discount because Sydney needed cap space. That's why they sent off Lamb as well.

Short memories everywhere

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

 

[coryne]

Absolutely. We'd be mad not to, but GCS would be even crazier offering it.

A 3 pick downgrade for 2 extra early second rounders? We make out like bandits.

True but in this case it is more a chance to get their 2nd selections BEFORE a bid on Bowes comes meaning that they are, effectively, getting to utilize #8 on a player instead of using it on the academy selection. They also accumulated a heap of 2nd rd picks last year, some of which will become useless unless list space is generated, so it is more a downgrade of the #21 and #22 picks to ones that they will be able to use later in the draft.

 

[Malifice]

True but in this case it is more a chance to get their 2nd selections BEFORE a bid on Bowes comes meaning that they are, effectively, getting to utilize #8 on a player instead of using it on the academy selection. They also accumulated a heap of 2nd rd picks last year, some of which will become useless unless list space is generated, so it is more a downgrade of the #21 and #22 picks to ones that they will be able to use later in the draft.

Pick values:

5: 1,878

for:

8: 1,551
21: 878
22: 845

We're swapping 3,300 odd points in for 1,878 points out. Thats a 1,400 point advantage our way, which is the equivalent of pick 9/10 on its own.

If anything it would be [5] for [8 and 22] which has GCS paying 500 points for extra bargaining power at the top of the draft.

Personally I'd rather get in depth via GWS, and use GCS for extra top end talent via trading in one or two of their 1st rounders.

 

[HARKER]

Pick values:

5: 1,878

for:

8: 1,551
21: 878
22: 845

We're swapping 3,300 odd points in for 1,878 points out. Thats a 1,400 point advantage our way, which is the equivalent of pick 9/10 on its own.

If anything it would be [5] for [8 and 22] which has GCS paying 500 points for extra bargaining power at the top of the draft.

Personally I'd rather get in depth via GWS, and use GCS for extra top end talent via trading in one or two of their 1st rounders.

Points alone mean nothing to us and there may come a time they don't to GWS either.
Players first...........points second. Would rather get one Bontempelli than for a package of Salem, Impey & Gardiner.

What we don't know is where GWS rate their guys and if there's someone they much sooner have than for any Academy player.
If they want SPS they'll need the pick and not the points.

 

[zeeCFC]

We got Everitt on discount because Sydney needed cap space. That's why they sent off Lamb as well.

Short memories everywhere

Sent from my SM-G920I using Tapatalk

I don't recall Everitt being a discount

 

[Malifice]

Points alone mean nothing to us and there may come a time they don't to GWS either.
Players first...........points second. Would rather get one Bontempelli than for a package of Salem, Impey & Gardiner.

What we don't know is where GWS rate their guys and if there's someone they much sooner have than for any Academy player.
If they want SPS they'll need the pick and not the points.

No, but they remain a decent mechanism to value trades. And they're certainly relelvant to GCS as they will be bidding on Bowes early, and using those points.

 

[HARKER]

No, but they remain a decent mechanism to value trades. And they're certainly relelvant to GCS as they will be bidding on Bowes early, and using those points.

Of course but we just seem to be placing the weight on points as a realistic guide to the value of the trade.

Get the player and not the points and if GWS do want (let's say) SPS, then they'll have to hand over a lot more than points alone.

 

[Espio]

Most likely due diligence but Freo were over talking to Marshall very recently.

 

[Pafloyul]

Points alone mean nothing to us and there may come a time they don't to GWS either.
Players first...........points second. Would rather get one Bontempelli than for a package of Salem, Impey & Gardiner.

What we don't know is where GWS rate their guys and if there's someone they much sooner have than for any Academy player.
If they want SPS they'll need the pick and not the points.

Points for their own sake mean nothing but I'd do the above deal regardless.

 

[Malifice]

Of course but we just seem to be placing the weight on points as a realistic guide to the value of the trade.

Get the player and not the points and if GWS do want (let's say) SPS, then they'll have to hand over a lot more than points alone.

Its 2 early second rounders for a 3 pick downgrade from 5 to 8. We win that deal every day of the week.

 

[Dramoth]

Looks like a great kid and surely must end up at CFC, is pure blue blooded royalty. If he is a 3rd -4th round pick then you would think the other clubs might stay clear knowing that the go home factor (home being Princes Park) is always going to be there.

It'd be the same with any other kid with serious ties to any club. Even if they do well at the club that picks them up, they would still want to play for their real club.

 

[HARKER]

Points for their own sake mean nothing but I'd do the above deal regardless.

Of course and so would I, but I'd rather have the pick #10 than for four picks in the 50's

 

[HARKER]

Its 2 early second rounders for a 3 pick downgrade from 5 to 8. We win that deal every day of the week.

But you didn't need the points to highlight that and again: If GWS desperately want SPS and we're likely to have him at #5, then they can't just dangle points at us.

It will have to be numbers that then we have to apply those numbers to players we think we'll get with those numbers..........points mean little

 

[coryne]

But you didn't need the points to highlight that and again: If GWS desperately want SPS and we're likely to have him at #5, then they can't just dangle points at us.

It will have to be numbers that then we have to apply those numbers to players we think we'll get with those numbers..........points mean little

Esp if the number of picks that you can take in to the draft are restricted, and you have similar picks in hand too. The whole idea would be for the GCS to get x2 selections BEFORE Bowes is nominated for, meaning that they get x3 top class players from this draft.

 

[TooBlue14]

Who wants to give up Pick 9 for two early seconds, though?

Western Bulldogs did last year.

 

[1981]

Absolutely. We'd be mad not to, but GCS would be even crazier offering it.

A 3 pick downgrade for 2 extra early second rounders? We make out like bandits.



By no standouts, that means no clear pick 1. The top half a dozen are all very even, it then drops off over the next half dozen (who are also pretty close) and then evens out from the mid teens to the 30's before dopping off sharply.

Normally its more of a steep drop off. Its kinda got about 2-3 plateaus this year.

Understood but to my eye none of the top group are worth getting all frothy about

Just my view

 

[Blue and Silver]

I don't recall Everitt being a discount

The first signs of trouble for Sydney started during the trade period when talented ruckman Shane Mumford left for cross-town rivals GWS. This departure was heavily influenced by Franklin’s signing and the fact that Sydney now had a number of key forwards as well as ruck prospects. Mumford is without a doubt one of the best ruckmen in the league and would have been a valuable player for the Swans 2014 campaign. Two more players who left for greener pastures were utilities Andrejs Everitt and Jed Lamb. Everitt had come off the best season of his career and Lamb was starting to show real promise as an injection of speed into the usually slow-paced midfield at Sydney. The fact that one contract meant that they could not afford a number of quality players is a bad sign for the Swans.

http://www.boundforglorynews.com.au/the-lance-franklin-effect/

Or see here: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...th-after-move-from-sydney-20140511-zr9ec.html

 

[Red Bull]

Esp if the number of picks that you can take in to the draft are restricted, and you have similar picks in hand too. The whole idea would be for the GCS to get x2 selections BEFORE Bowes is nominated for, meaning that they get x3 top class players from this draft.

Add the chance that GC could well also have 6 from Richmond in exchange for Prestia and that could give them 3 free hits in a row before Bowes is bid on allowing that * , Brisbane and Fremantle don't bid with the first 3 picks .

 

[agro]

http://www.boundforglorynews.com.au/the-lance-franklin-effect/

Or see here: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-ne...th-after-move-from-sydney-20140511-zr9ec.html

The article loses credibility when it refers to Jed Lamb and infes he has lightening pace - he simply doesn't.

 

[Old navy]

Add the chance that GC could well also have 6 from Richmond in exchange for Prestia and that could give them 3 free hits in a row before Bowes is bid on allowing that * , Brisbane and Fremantle don't bid with the first 3 picks .

Bowes will very likely be bid on in the top 3. He has been managed this year, but most recruiters are saying they rate him very highly. Callum Mills hardly played a game in his draft year, it didn't matter recruiters had already seen how much talent he had. GSC have been planning for him since last years draft, the knew they'd have the highest rated academy prospect this year.
Kids has some serious talent. Beast of a player inside/outside 187cm goal kicking mid.

 

[Red Bull]

Bowes will very likely be bid on in the top 3. He has been managed this year, but most recruiters are saying they rate him very highly. Callum Mills hardly played a game in his draft year, it didn't matter recruiters had already seen how much talent he had. GSC have been planning for him since last years draft, the knew they'd have the highest rated academy prospect this year.
Kids has some serious talent. Beast of a player inside/outside 187cm goal kicking mid.

Sounds like the real deal .
But who bids ?
Does * give up the prestige of calling out the number 1 young player in the country and all the marketing hype that goes with it ?
Does Brisbane risk starting an academy bidding war into the future ?
Does Fremantle overlook a serious homegrown talent ?
And for all we know picks 1 and 3 could possibly end up in other hands anyway ...

 

[ParapMarkets]

Sounds like the real deal .
But who bids ?
Does * give up the prestige of calling out the number 1 young player in the country and all the marketing hype that goes with it ?
Does Brisbane risk starting an academy bidding war into the future ?
Does Fremantle overlook a serious homegrown talent ?
And for all we know picks 1 and 3 could possibly end up in other hands anyway ...

Spot on. If last year is anything to go by, clubs are very reluctant to bid on an academy player with high picks so as to not look to their supporters as though they aren't getting the player they want. Jacob Hopper didn't get bid on until the GC at pick 8 last year.

 

[Old navy]

Sounds like the real deal .
But who bids ?
Does * give up the prestige of calling out the number 1 young player in the country and all the marketing hype that goes with it ?
Does Brisbane risk starting an academy bidding war into the future ?
Does Fremantle overlook a serious homegrown talent ?
And for all we know picks 1 and 3 could possibly end up in other hands anyway ...

The bidding system only works if, all the other non academy clubs keep these clubs with academy's honest.
By bidding and not giving them the free hit. It's like the Dee's bidding pick 4 on Mills, they knew Swans would match, but if Mills is the player highest rated player available you got to bid.
GCS bid on Hooper last year, so it doesn't seem like there worried about bidding on other clubs academy players.
Someone will bid on Bowes in the top 5(unless), because they know GCS will not pass on Bowes at any price.