Hot Topic 2016 DRAFT

[Arr0w]

Trading our 2017 1st round pick for 2 picks in the first round this year would be a very good idea.

The more young talent we can bring into the club year on year, the better of we will be in the long run.

Of course there is an element of risk that we'll be giving up a top 3 pick but with another influx of young talent + another year under Bolton we'll back ourselves in to at least maintain our position on the ladder.

GC currently hold picks 4 & 8 and by the end of next week could hold picks 6 & 10 as well. My guess is the GC will be very open to the idea of trading a couple of those picks in exchange for 2017 picks and/or experienced players.

If we do it's not inconceivable that at some stage this week we'll be holding picks 5, (two of 4,6,8,10) and 13. Move one of them on for the GWS bunch - with maybe their late first coming back - and we'll be in a brilliant position to replicate our draft performance from last year.

Jeremias, I agree with the majority of your post, but this one I don't

With the likelihood that we are trading 2E & Gibbs, this will only strengthen the chance of a short term finish in the bottom 5 next year, perhaps we may even have pick 1 or 2.

This draft is void of top end talent after the first 5 or 6, then it flattens out to around the end of the 2nd round. What I would prefer SOS to do, is if we trade Gibbs, is to offload that pick for say 2 of GC picks 22 and 24. That will generate more quality players than just having 13

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Both of Marchbank (19 years old) and Pickett (20) are young talent.

Of course we'd love to get them in for two picks in the second round but that seems very unlikely.

I'd be over the moon if we got Marchbank, Pickett and say their late first round pick for one of those early picks (+ possible steak-knives).

3-4 picks inside the top 20 + Marchbank and Pickett would be a brilliant result for us.

Why? Steele went for Saints 2017 2nd and he doesn't have the same injury concerns. Two second rounders for them is a fair enough offer imo. Pickett has a Lisfranc injury which can be quite serious and Marchbank hasn't been fit for the better part of the last 4 years. Surely that has to reduce their value.

Last year they had no problem letting go of a former #3 (Plowman), #10 (Sumner) and #21 (Lamb) for a solitary mid range 2nd rounder. They need to make room and clear salary space too. A couple of second rounders could prove to be pretty handy for them as well.

Or another way we could do it is, swap our 2nd and another 2nd to get another mid-late 1st and hand that over.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

What's next a years draft looking like? Hate to give up pick 1 or 2 for a two late first round picks.

Does SOS have a statistician helping him out? eg
https://eis.uow.edu.au/content/groups/public/@web/@inf/@math/documents/doc/uow074440.pdf

I'm torn between the decision too. On one hand we have a very high pick next year, but this year is a midfielder's draft and with the loss of Gibbs its critical we try and build that area as soon as we can.

I wouldn't be handing #6 over for #14 and #17 though. Not a fan of that move at all.

If we obtain #6 and #10, as well as #13 our draft could look like this:

#5 - Brodie
#6 - Taranto
#10 - Scrimshaw
#13 - Powell-Pepper/Venables

That would seriously setup our midfield.

We can then trade back in to the top 10 next year by swapping out our 2018 1st. Pretty sure we would be allowed to, just won't be able to trade a future 1st for a couple years after that.

But we let Cripps and Murphy take those boys under their wing and we would have a very strong midfield for the next decade imo.

Possibility of Fyfe as a FA next year too...

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Who was it that said we were giving away our 2017 1st for two 1st rounders this year?

Don't know who said it, but we should, for GCS 8 and 10 when they get it.

 

[mikeythemoocow]

Against trading any of next years pick. Wrong draft to do it.

 

[Blue By Blood]

Why? Steele went for Saints 2017 2nd and he doesn't have the same injury concerns. Two second rounders for them is a fair enough offer imo. Pickett has a Lisfranc injury which can be quite serious and Marchbank hasn't been fit for the better part of the last 4 years. Surely that has to reduce their value.

Last year they had no problem letting go of a former #3 (Plowman), #10 (Sumner) and #21 (Lamb) for a solitary mid range 2nd rounder. They need to make room and clear salary space too. A couple of second rounders could prove to be pretty handy for them as well.

Or another way we could do it is, swap our 2nd and another 2nd to get another mid-late 1st and hand that over.

The fact that GWS rate these two higher than Steele shows us that we will be getting in a couple of ripper talents for definite unders. More clubs tried to poach Marchbank than Steele too.. which says a fair bit about how he is rated in AFL circles.
Key talls (forward or back) are always worth more than midfielders as they are considered harder to replace and harder to find. Steele is good don't get me wrong, but he isn't overly quick, nor is he particularly damaging by foot.

 

[BrisbaneCFC]

Against trading any of next years pick. Wrong draft to do it.

It really isn't.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

The fact that GWS rate these two higher than Steele shows us that we will be getting in a couple of ripper talents for definite unders. More clubs tried to poach Marchbank than Steele too.. which says a fair bit about how he is rated in AFL circles.
Key talls (forward or back) are always worth more than midfielders as they are considered harder to replace and harder to find. Steele is good don't get me wrong, but he isn't overly quick, nor is he particularly damaging by foot.

Like I said, they let go of Plowman for quite cheap last year. Marchbank hasn't shown any more than him. In fact he's shown less and has been injured for the better part of the past 4 years. Pickett hasn't shown anything yet and comes with a serious injury as well.

Two 2nd rounders should work for them. If they're hell bent on a first rounder then we can couple two 2nd rounders to get a 1st from someone.

Just saying, if we're going to trade next year's 1st, then it means we're serious about this year's draft. If we're serious about this year's draft, then trading one of #5, #6, #10 or #13 is stupid.

Pickett said he's fine with staying if they can't work something out with Carlton. Why not make him wait one more year and get him cheaper next year? It's not like he's going to get on the park next year anyway.

Trade the two 2nd rounders for Marchbank if we rate him so much. Grab Pickett with a 3rd next year.

 

[Smegger]

Against trading any of next years pick. Wrong draft to do it.

I'm only against trading out our 2017 first as it could be in the top 3. Imagine Bolts' priority is to get pieces into place atm rather than climbing the ladder. Feels too much like using the credit card and getting the bill next draft.

 

[Malifice]

Both of Marchbank (19 years old) and Pickett (20) are young talent.

Of course we'd love to get them in for two picks in the second round but that seems very unlikely.

I'd be over the moon if we got Marchbank, Pickett and say their late first round pick for one of those early picks (+ possible steak-knives).

3-4 picks inside the top 20 + Marchbank and Pickett would be a brilliant result for us.

1. Geelong manage to get 21 off GCS and trade us that for Tuohy.

2. Adelaide trade 13 plus a second round pick they get for Lyons (I'm gonna randomly say pick 29) for Gibbs.

Pick 5, 13, 21, 25, 29, 45, 58.

3. Trade 5 and 21 to GCS for 8 and 10 (recieved from Hawthorn for JOM). This gives them picks 4, 5 and 6 in a row. They'll happily pay a small premium for the chance at selecting 3 x best available before matching a bid on Bowes. We know the draft order alread for 1-4, and we know who is going at pick 7 (English). As long as we're happy that the player we want (Taranto or Ainsworth) wont be snaffled up by GCS with 5 or 6 (we can ask them) its a perfect trade for us and them.

Picks 8, 10, 13, 25, 29, 45, 58

4. Trade 25, 29, future second (we can recover it next year via trade) for Pickett, Stewart, Marchbank and 37 (which GWS wont use).

Picks 8, 10, 13, 37, 45, 58

Add: Picks 8, 10, 13, 37, 45, 58 and Mbank, Pickett and Stewart.

 

[Smegger]

Always a possibility Tuohy can't get to Geelong considerong Deledio is their first choice.

Considering Geelong's needs due to outs, would have thought Tuohy a higher priority due to his durabity. Delidio is a gun but how many games can he be relied upon to produce?

 

[Styxx]

Considering Geelong's needs due to outs, would have thought Tuohy a higher priority due to his durabity. Delidio is a gun but how many games can he be relied upon to produce?

Geelong clearly feel he can be relied on for enough and their opinion is most important.

Could mean Tuohy stays, could mean North come back into the picture and we possibly can get more there.

Remember last year we knew nothing about the deal that got us the pick that secured us Sir Charles until it pretty much happened. We are a lot better at being tight lipped than in the past so it will pretty much take nothing happening at all by end of Wednesday I would start being concerned really.

 

[Quazza]

Why? Steele went for Saints 2017 2nd and he doesn't have the same injury concerns. Two second rounders for them is a fair enough offer imo. Pickett has a Lisfranc injury which can be quite serious and Marchbank hasn't been fit for the better part of the last 4 years. Surely that has to reduce their value.

if they were our players we were trading out, as previous pick 6 and 4, would you be happy with that deal?

 

[Malifice]

Don't know who said it, but we should, for GCS 8 and 10 when they get it.

We can get 8 and 10 by swapping 5 and a second rounder in the twenties to GCS.

On the proviso GCS tell us who they will be selecting at 4, 5 and 6 (we know English is going at 7, McLuggage at 1, Mcgrath at 2, SPS at 3). It becomes bascially a downgrade of a pick in the 20's to pick 10 for nothing.

That gets us 8, 10, 13 (for Gibbs) this year, and we still have 2 second round picks left to pay for the GWS boys (plus a future second, with change coming back our way).

Easy to get back into the second round next year. Kruezer gets us a pick around the 20 mark.

Next year we have a top 3 pick intact and we throw 7 million to Fyfe for 5 years (guarantees Fremantle Ablett like compo which they would be very unlikely to match). We could even afford more with no Gibbs, Thomas, Simpson, Tuohy, Kruezer, and Jones salaries and no-one else on any real coin.

 

[BobP]

Issue with trading next years 1st is that it is quite likely that it will be a number 1 pick.

Objectively, the 4 teams who finished below us this past season all have better developed lists.

On another note, I personally think we should take things as they come with regards to player recruitment.

Our defense is solid looking and with Marchbank nominating us, that will hopefully continue.

Our midfield stocks are completely depleted. As it stands, it is literally Cripps, Gibbs, Murphy and Curnow. Devoid of both quality and depth.

Forward line lacks any goal kicking power whatsoever. We do however, have some promising talent coming through in Silvagni, Curnow and McKay.

Thus, my view is that we have got to utilize this period of recruitment to regenerate the midfield and hopefully bring in some forwards who are able to slot in and do a job immediately.

As it stands, we have pick 5 and 24, with Gibbs and Tuohy wanting out.

It's critical we get something for Tuohy as his contract is up. I'd be up for letting Gibbs go only in the case that we are recompensed with 2 picks in the top 25.

That would leave us with: 5, 13, and potentially 3 picks falling somewhere in the 20s. One of those picks in the 20s can be thrown the way of GWS for Marchbank and Pickett. That leaves us with potentially 4 picks in the top 25-30 of the draft.

The key question here is: Do we trade 5 for both 8 and 10 if it's possible, considering the nature of this draft?

I mean there is apparently a drop after the top 5, and by losing that pick 5 we probably lose a chance at bringing in a Brodie or Taranto. At the same time however, we attain two picks in the top 10.

Some tough questions here.

 

[Malifice]

That would leave us with: 5, 13, and potentially 3 picks falling somewhere in the 20s. One of those picks in the 20s can be thrown the way of GWS for Marchbank and Pickett.

There is no way we get Mbank and Pickett for a single pick in the 20's.

 

[bad setanta]

we know English is going at 7

Is Hughes selecting their players? Surely they pick SPS there, surely.

 

[bad setanta]

There is no way we get Mbank and Pickett for a single pick in the 20's.

Why not? That is their worth.

 

[BobP]

There is no way we get Mbank and Pickett for a single pick in the 20's.

One hasn't played a single game yet, the other has but has been plagued by injury.

 

[Malifice]

Is Hughes selecting their players? Surely they pick SPS there, surely.

Brisbane take him at 3. Its already been discussed between them and GWS before the recent swap of pick 2 for 3.

 

[BobP]

I'm not too surprised that we've been inactive this past week, SOS has a lot to mull over, think we'll go bang next week.

 

[bad setanta]

Can't afford to miss out on Brodie-SPS or Taranto. 10-20 picks are awkward in this draft, tend to think even better value lay in the likely 20's picks, Z.Fisher, Simpkin,Drew.

 

[bad setanta]

Brisbane take him at 3. Its already been discussed between them and GWS before the recent swap of pick 2 for 3.

Who reported this?

 

[bad setanta]

Right!

So who do we like?
Which players are Carlton?
Do we go mids or talls?

From what I can gather Bolton wants smart players.....ones that can kick.....ones that fit into the 'Carlton' ethic.
Pretty sure that we're not buying into 'projects' We just want players that will add to the whole.....on and off the field.

Hope we are looking at Jake Pitman Harks, ticks a lot of boxes. Your thoughts?

 

[Malifice]

Who reported this?

Huh? It doesnt need to be reported, its all closed doors stuff. The draft order is:

1. McLugge
2. McGrath
3. SPS
4. Brodie
5. ??
6. ??
7. English

GWS moved down the order to get McGrath (they know Essendon are taking McLuggage, and rate McGrath as a worthy pick 1). Brisbane have been into SPS all year (he barracks for them) so it makes sense (they know he'll still be available at 3, because GWS told them). Freo dropped down the order because they want English as a Sandi replacement, and know he'll be there at 7.

The clubs tell each other who they're picking.

The issue now is GCS. If Brisbane bid for Bowes this hurts them. If they get an assurance that Brisbane wont bid on Bowes (and will take SPS at 3) they'll pay an absolute premium for pick 5 (they get pick 6 from Richmond for Prestia). With no bids on Bowes before pick 4, GCS can use 4, 5 and 6 on best available and then pay for Bowes with a couple of second rounders. They basically get the 4 best midfielders in the draft.

We could easily swap 5 and a second rounder for picks 8 and 10 off GCS (with a wink and a nod we wont bid on Bowes at 8, and an assurance from GCS that they'll leave the player we would have taken at 5 to fall to us at 8).

We basically get the player we would have taken at 5 at pick 8, and get a free upgrade of a second rounder to pick 10.