Strategy 2016 Forward Line

[Turbocat]

Agree with Kersten but I rewatched the Dons game and him specifically and saw some interesting things IMO.
He had 3m clear space in the FP with the defender off him and mots puts the ball to the boundary and away from Kersten. He's ooen in the right spot and gets missed.

He gets the Joe the goose soccer goal.

He leads to the wing only to being ignored and the ball is turned over.

He is one out in the square and caddy centers the ball across the 50 and the bombers clear it out.
Kersten is at ff and the ball is kicked over his head and he gets back and shepards it thru blocking out the defender.
That is all in the first 1/2.

The bad - guthrie on the burst out of the middle and Kersten ball watches him instead of leading either to him or back to the goal line. Poor play.

I'm not saying Kersten does not need to do more. He does. Much more and for more a bit more aggressively. But I also think the concept that he does nothing and is of no value is not accurate either. ( not saying you said that specifically)

Go Catters

I did find it noteworthy that the player who kicked long for his good 1o1 mark was Cowan. A player who would have played with him a lot in the VFL. Familiarity & trust must have a part to play.

 

[Turbocat]

They do play on the edge, but Mitchell is as good as any mid playing today.
Mitchell, Yes.

Vdubs I think you are taking the glass half full interoperation of their on field behaviour. I look at Haw and see many things that i would be happy to do when I played...but I was an ordinary player.. i would do what I had to do to make a winning result. They are better than that.. or should be. I would say they cross the line , they jump the edge and work on the theory that pressure build on umpires to maintain a semblance of fairness...ie a free kick count of about the same for both teams. Even if an umpire does free kick them a lot early , eventually they tend to let those "edge" decisions go and consequently get away with far more than they should. They are not alone in this , and its not the reason they have won 3 in the row but its certainly in keeping with a Clarkson mindset.

 

[romeohwho]

You are not saying anything that is offensive.
He has an Eastern Ranges heritage, so it is not a friendship or anything like that.
But in general, always safer to comment on footy stuff than off-field

Have no doubt that Hodgey, Mitchell, Lewis are good blokes. Also wonderful footballers. Also very free with the elbows, often off the ball. Can't see a problem with acknowledging all these things.
( Lewis has actually improved in the thug area and much fairer these days)

 

[Vdubs]

Have no doubt that Hodgey, Mitchell, Lewis are good blokes. Also wonderful footballers. Also very free with the elbows, often off the ball. Can't see a problem with acknowledging all these things.
( Lewis has actually improved in the thug area and much fairer these days)

No problem at all.

 

[Sel2hawk]

FF: McCarthy. Hawkins. Bartel.

HF: Menzel. Stanley. Motlop.

 

[geelong_boy]

Fyfe was lame in Preliminary Final because he had been playing with a hairline stress fracture in his fibula. It had nothing to do with cork thigh he'd received 11 weeks earlier. Him and Brian Lake collided into each other in the opening minute or two of the game (clash of legs) and this appeared to make Fyfe's leg-fracture worse. He was rooted after that. He had a brief spell after half time where he somehow won 5 or 6 contests & clearances. Probably got another jab. It was a courageous effort. He tried really hard, the mind was willing, but the body failed him and he struggled.

The scores would've certainly been closer had Fyfe been fit, but the Hawks won the game 15.4 to 10.7 so I'm not sure one player would've made up that difference.

I rate Freo as a strong chance for this year's flag - one the favourites - so it was great signs for Geelong to lead for most of the game over there and go down by just one goal. Good hit out for Round 1 v Hawthorn. I have a feeling it's going to be a much tougher game than last year's round 1 blowout.

Thanks for the info on Fyfe's injury.

Re the Prelim, Freo were IIRC only about two goals down with a fair bit of momentum (and missing shots) when the Freo defender spilled that crucial mark at defensive 50 which resulted in the goal to Rioli. My point is that it was close and a fit Fyfe would've made a big difference.

And yes R1 this year should be a lot closer.

 

[Turbocat]

FF: McCarthy. Hawkins. Bartel.

HF: Menzel. Stanley. Motlop.

Vardy will play at CHF but apart from that not a bad line up ... if we got a full season out of those players just how many goals would we expect to see from them I wonder

Linc 30 , Hawk 60 , Bartel 30
Menzel 40 , Vardy 40 , Motlop 25

 

[Lana]

Vardy will play at CHF but apart from that not a bad line up ... if we got a full season out of those players just how many goals would we expect to see from them I wonder

Linc 30 , Hawk 60 , Bartel 30
Menzel 40 , Vardy 40 , Motlop 25

I'd say most of those numbers are highly optimistic.
I'd be happy for 20 from McCarthy and 30 apiece from Menzel and Vardy.
Bartel could kick that number but I wouldn't expect to see him kick that many.
Even as a mid Motlop should kick around that number.

 

[Sel2hawk]

I

Vardy will play at CHF but apart from that not a bad line up ... if we got a full season out of those players just how many goals would we expect to see from them I wonder

Linc 30 , Hawk 60 , Bartel 30
Menzel 40 , Vardy 40 , Motlop 25

I had Vardy just on the bench which is irrelevant these days. I think it's time Vardy stood up. Wouldn't surprise me at all if first bounce against the poos and wees that hawk Stanley and Vardy start down there. If Hawkins stays deep this year and they actually move the ball fast and kick it long to him I wouldn't be it beyond him to kick 70.

 

[David the Cat]

I

I had Vardy just on the bench which is irrelevant these days. I think it's time Vardy stood up. Wouldn't surprise me at all if first bounce against the poos and wees that hawk Stanley and Vardy start down there. If Hawkins stays deep this year and they actually move the ball fast and kick it long to him I wouldn't be it beyond him to kick 70.

Agree with the bolded, but indications in the NAB games were that Hawkins would be spending time further up the ground. He was mobile and effective around the ground, and I suspect this has been in the coaches thoughts for a while, hence his dropping of kilos during the offseason.

Don't be surprised to see Hawk up around the center of the ground more regularly this season.

 

[Turbocat]

I'd say most of those numbers are highly optimistic.
I'd be happy for 20 from McCarthy and 30 apiece from Menzel and Vardy.
Bartel could kick that number but I wouldn't expect to see him kick that many.
Even as a mid Motlop should kick around that number.

I cant deny that its optimistic , it was based on a full season from that group of players... that in itself is glass half full.

But just to show my thought process on a couple..
I think Linc has the ability to kick and average of 1.5 a game , if he can kick 3 over in Freo he has that sort of potential..we just need to see consistency
Vardy really if an unknown because we have not seen him player as a regular forward. He has only an average of 1 a game so you may be right

 

[Frappe]

Our last genuine shot was 2013 and our top 6 players kicked 200 between them (our next 8 kicked 100).
Hawkins 49
Motlop 44
Podsiadly 33
Johnson 30
Bartel 23
Christensen 23

Two talls and 4 medium-smalls

We need this sort of mix to be up there. I can't see any of our talls bar Hawkins kicking 50+. If Vardy consistently plays and can kick 25 that's a good outcome. This means we need 20-30 from the likes of Danger, Selwood, Duncan, Caddy, Motlop, Menzel or Gregson/McCarthy. Would be an absolute bonus for Blicavs or Stanley to jag 20.

Our midfielders need to get into the habit of kicking goals. Selwood and Bairstow (yes a long time ago) were never known as goalkickers but got a sniff in certain years and jagged 30-40.

 

[Big 0]

This is our lineup (including forwards) from a Cameron Rose of The Roar's point of view

B: Corey Enright Tom Lonergan Cam Guthrie
HB: Lachie Henderson Harry Taylor Jimmy Bartel
C: Mark Blicavs Patrick Dangerfield Mitch Duncan
HF: Cory Gregson Tom Hawkins Steven Motlop
F: Darcy Lang Nathan Vardy Daniel Menzel
Foll: Rhys Stanley Josh Caddy Joel Selwood
Int: Zac Smith Andrew Mackie Lincoln McCarthy Nakia Cockatoo
Em: Mitch Clark Jordan Murdoch Jake Kolodjashnij

 

[Lana]

I cant deny that its optimistic , it was based on a full season from that group of players... that in itself is glass half full.

But just to show my thought process on a couple..
I think Linc has the ability to kick and average of 1.5 a game , if he can kick 3 over in Freo he has that sort of potential..we just need to see consistency
Vardy really if an unknown because we have not seen him player as a regular forward. He has only an average of 1 a game so you may be right

The reason why I don't think McCarthy will hit 30 goals isn't because of anything against him rather is that it's actually a hard tally to reach, only 41 players did it last year (which is actually a high in comparison to the last few years,just 27 reached it in 2014) a vast majority of those were those teams 1st or 2nd KPF. Guys like Varcoe, Stokes and Byrnes who played a similar role had trouble for the most part getting to that number during our run when we were kicking 420 goals a year.

 

[Frappe]

The reason why I don't think McCarthy will hit 30 goals isn't because of anything against him rather is that it's actually a hard tally to reach, only 41 players did it last year (which is actually a high in comparison to the last few years,just 27 reached it in 2014) a vast majority of those were those teams 1st or 2nd KPF. Guys like Varcoe, Stokes and Byrnes who played a similar role had trouble for the most part getting to that number during our run when we were kicking 420 goals a year.

Yes. Need a greater spread of 20-25.

 

[dazbroncos]

I realise its only NAB, but I was encouraged in the goal kicking diversity we had.

In the 07-11 years, it was this that that made us - or one of the things really - kept us versatile and dangerous.

Taking the pressure off Hawkins and having others get involved will move defenses around and make them think more about it, which will inevitably help Hawkins. Point being increasing the spread around could actually mean Hawkins gets more chances - the defenders have to honour those around him.

GO Catters

 

[David the Cat]

Looks to me like Hawkins will be spending a fair time upfield, with them slotting Vardy, Smith and Stanley as deep FF at various times with Menzel, MCarthy Danger, Joel,Caddy and Gregson sniffing around for scraps at different times. Hawkins will slot in at FF as well but its been noticeable that his efforts upfield have been effective.

I know we haven't seen this forward strength....(perhaps I should say potential)....in the real action yet, but it looks much more potent on paper.

 

[Sel2hawk]

I

Looks to me like Hawkins will be spending a fair time upfield, with them slotting Vardy, Smith and Stanley as deep FF at various times with Menzel, MCarthy Danger, Joel,Caddy and Gregson sniffing around for scraps at different times. Hawkins will slot in at FF as well but its been noticeable that his efforts upfield have been effective.

I know we haven't seen this forward strength....(perhaps I should say potential)....in the real action yet, but it looks much more potent on paper.

I know what your saying but if that's the case taking Hawkins out of being deep who is a contested mark beast who the opposition fear and keeping unproven players deep we are in for a very very long season. Other coaches will be preying that happens

 

[vinum coupe]

I

I know what your saying but if that's the case taking Hawkins out of being deep who is a contested mark beast who the opposition fear and keeping unproven players deep we are in for a very very long season. Other coaches will be preying that happens

What David said has merit. We have seen players like smith making their opponent accountable by running deep forward.
If Hawkins has led up and out of the space it can seperate defences.

 

[Turbocat]

The reason why I don't think McCarthy will hit 30 goals isn't because of anything against him rather is that it's actually a hard tally to reach, only 41 players did it last year (which is actually a high in comparison to the last few years,just 27 reached it in 2014) a vast majority of those were those teams 1st or 2nd KPF. Guys like Varcoe, Stokes and Byrnes who played a similar role had trouble for the most part getting to that number during our run when we were kicking 420 goals a year.

All very reasonable in point. Yes I agree hard to reach... but Linc , I feel if he plays 22 games he will get there. Previous he was struggling to kick goals but he may now finally be confident that he can do it at AFL..even though it was just a practice match.

The criteria I had on those players is fitness and games played more than talent. So few games played , its all supposition.
Just what could a fit Menzel give us now? I still dont really know if he will be able to play 5-10 in a row.
Vardy seems to have the ability to score goals and complement Hawkins better than Clark.. has he ever been able to stay forward? But he can seem to go missing.
Even Hawkins...he is not a high goal scorer and if he leads up the ground may on be good for 2-3 a game. (Big game player though)
Bartel..well the club has already said he will not play every game so bang goes his 30.
Motlop , I was aware he would play mid sometime in my estimation. Will he play every game. It would hardly surprise if he gets injured at some point , with his history and coming of a less than perfect prep.

On top of that , other players may pinch goals , press for a spot
Dangers will need to be rested. Selwood will need to be smoothed in. Caddy will for sure. Duncan at times Gregson if he plays. Cockatoo if he can convert.

My real intent was to agree that those group of guys may be more threatening than some would say they do on paper. We have a low cred forwardline.
Ideally id like us to aim for and surpass the 100 a game mark , around 4 a quarter. Thats around 352 goals for the year that would take us back into our Premiership type scoring . Is it likely that those 6 score 225 goals or 63% of our season score? Id agree that its improbable when they have played so little footy.

 

[Turbocat]

Looks to me like Hawkins will be spending a fair time upfield, with them slotting Vardy, Smith and Stanley as deep FF at various times with Menzel, MCarthy Danger, Joel,Caddy and Gregson sniffing around for scraps at different times. Hawkins will slot in at FF as well but its been noticeable that his efforts upfield have been effective.

I know we haven't seen this forward strength....(perhaps I should say potential)....in the real action yet, but it looks much more potent on paper.

Sort of what I was saying although , id say on paper it doesn't resonate with most neutral supporters but to us we see the potential.

Hawkins is not a huge goal kicker anyway , him leading up the ground to help us retain the ball as a lead up forward may create issues for defenders. Nothing they hate more than diversity. If you go is just gorilla wrestling then they defence will put the biggest monkey on you..but if and when that happens , you lead and have mobility ...
and even guys like Menzel may be able to play close to the square. He was once very good 1o1

 

[dazbroncos]

What David said has merit. We have seen players like smith making their opponent accountable by running deep forward.
If Hawkins has led up and out of the space it can seperate defences.

Hale and Goldy make a mockery of us of late doing exactly that.

Smith doing it for us is great. Im not expecting it to be the difference between us and them but it might help to close the gap.

And if both Stanley and Smith can do it all game long - it gets really interesting.

Go Catters

 

[Lana]

All very reasonable in point. Yes I agree hard to reach... but Linc , I feel if he plays 22 games he will get there. Previous he was struggling to kick goals but he may now finally be confident that he can do it at AFL..even though it was just a practice match.

The criteria I had on those players is fitness and games played more than talent. So few games played , its all supposition.
Just what could a fit Menzel give us now? I still dont really know if he will be able to play 5-10 in a row.
Vardy seems to have the ability to score goals and complement Hawkins better than Clark.. has he ever been able to stay forward? But he can seem to go missing.
Even Hawkins...he is not a high goal scorer and if he leads up the ground may on be good for 2-3 a game. (Big game player though)
Bartel..well the club has already said he will not play every game so bang goes his 30.
Motlop , I was aware he would play mid sometime in my estimation. Will he play every game. It would hardly surprise if he gets injured at some point , with his history and coming of a less than perfect prep.

On top of that , other players may pinch goals , press for a spot
Dangers will need to be rested. Selwood will need to be smoothed in. Caddy will for sure. Duncan at times Gregson if he plays. Cockatoo if he can convert.

My real intent was to agree that those group of guys may be more threatening than some would say they do on paper. We have a low cred forwardline.
Ideally id like us to aim for and surpass the 100 a game mark , around 4 a quarter. Thats around 352 goals for the year that would take us back into our Premiership type scoring . Is it likely that those 6 score 225 goals or 63% of our season score? Id agree that its improbable when they have played so little footy.

For the most part I'm not worried who will kick the goals, if the structure is right they'll get kicked off the work done up the field. In my opinion the best our forward-line has looked for a while was the first 5 rounds of 2014, it was all done off our strength through the middle brought on by Simpson and McIntosh and a Mosquito fleet up forward providing a lot of pressure. It's pretty much what It looks like we're trying to do this year. Which is why I'm excited.

Just from the numbers having 6 guys kick 63% of your goals only happened in the days when players were kicking 130 goals a year

 

[nohairandfair]

Gregson has ice running through his veins on the set shot ... the gymnastics background and executing under pressure probably has helped there. Hopefully McCarthy, with a few snags in the NABChallenge and a good hoof on him will stay on the park and be a regular contributor too.

Need both of these boys to be 30+ contributors this year.

 

[Turbocat]

The reason why I don't think McCarthy will hit 30 goals isn't because of anything against him rather is that it's actually a hard tally to reach, only 41 players did it last year (which is actually a high in comparison to the last few years,just 27 reached it in 2014) a vast majority of those were those teams 1st or 2nd KPF. Guys like Varcoe, Stokes and Byrnes who played a similar role had trouble for the most part getting to that number during our run when we were kicking 420 goals a year.

Lana (10less) ... I remember we had this discussion on McCarthy a while ago ..and still a fair way to go but so far he looks like the 30 is quite doable if he can stay fit. He has a ripper set of hands , a very steady setshot and is now starting to crumb. You will rightly say he has plenty of goals still to get but so far he is playing and is more productive than someone with 9 games (too old for Rising star but that is what he is)