2016 Forwards

[Souup]

I'm looking at Gunston, he's less kpf up and down scorer than Roughy
83, 90 and 96 averages the last 3 years, think he'll crack the 100+ average this year.
Gets a lot of the ball, heaps of goals and assists, and contested marks. Plays for the best team and can go huge!

I've been seriously considering him too, however I see more potential for Roughead to hold his average or improve it.

The main thing that's making me doubt Gunston is his 7.5 mark average from last season. There's no chance he's averaging more marks than that a game in my opinion. So where does his improvement come from? I think if improvement is coming from anywhere from him, it's for him to go from a 50-60 goal a year forward into a 70+ goal a year forward. I'm not so confident he can do that, but i'll be monitoring him closely.

What does work in Gunstons favour is the fact he had scores of 22 and 39 last season. For me, I look at those scores the same way I look at injury-affected games. Those scores bring down his average and make him cheaper, if you take those scores out he's averaging 100. If he can weed out those kind of performances he'll be a very good pick-up.

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Gunston and Roughie finished 8th and 9th best forwards for the year with 96.6 and 52 goals and 96.4 with 43 goals. Looking at their numbers it looks like Gunston is the more reliable pick.
But it's the inconsistency often found in Hawthorn players that scares people away.

Roughie went 145 then 78 then a 52. Later in the year 150,106,117. Great he's a gun. Next week a 49.
Gunston was a lot more consistant with only 3 games under 70 and one at 70. But a 22 in a bye round and a 39 the week before finals ****in kills you. Yuk.

Like the majority of Hawthorn players. They go big when it's their turn. When they get the easy match up or when the game comes to them. Every one player has their job for the day and sometimes it's just to take a KPD out of the game or to run up the ground and block, help out in the midfield or ruck etc.

Roughie has an easy match up who can't run with him in Tom McDonald. Plays up the ground, links up, gets 30 touches and kicks 4 goals. Score 145.
Later in the year he plays Richmond who shut down forward lines and he has Rance sitting on his head with Houli helping out. Gets a 49.

Gunston gets 26 touches, 12 marks and kicks 6 goals, against Carlton. Scores 165. Wow good on ya Jack.
Two weeks later plays West Coast in a win, takes a nap and scores a 39.

Hawthorn players should be avoided IMO. None of them are going to break out, they share the ball too much for anyone to regularly go huge. They're forwards only go big against minnow clubs and their backs largely the opposite.

If you pick Rough or Guston and stay with them for the year you'll get a top10 FWD without injury every time.
Or for 6k more you can get Wingard who might go bang, or save 15-20k and jump on Barlow who could go back to a 100+ or even Robinson who lookied promising late last year.

 

[Souup]

Gunston and Roughie finished 8th and 9th best forwards for the year with 96.6 and 52 goals and 96.4 with 43 goals. Looking at their numbers it looks like Gunston is the more reliable pick.
But it's the inconsistency often found in Hawthorn players that scares people away.

Roughie went 145 then 78 then a 52. Later in the year 150,106,117. Great he's a gun. Next week a 49.
Gunston was a lot more consistant with only 3 games under 70 and one at 70. But a 22 in a bye round and a 39 the week before finals ****in kills you. Yuk.

Like the majority of Hawthorn players. They go big when it's their turn. When they get the easy match up or when the game comes to them. Every one player has their job for the day and sometimes it's just to take a KPD out of the game or to run up the ground and block, help out in the midfield or ruck etc.

Roughie has an easy match up who can't run with him in Tom McDonald. Plays up the ground, links up, gets 30 touches and kicks 4 goals. Score 145.
Later in the year he plays Richmond who shut down forward lines and he has Rance sitting on his head with Houli helping out. Gets a 49.

Gunston gets 26 touches, 12 marks and kicks 6 goals, against Carlton. Scores 165. Wow good on ya Jack.
Two weeks later plays West Coast in a win, takes a nap and scores a 39.

Hawthorn players should be avoided IMO. None of them are going to break out, they share the ball too much for anyone to regularly go huge. They're forwards only go big against minnow clubs and their backs largely the opposite.

If you pick Rough or Guston and stay with them for the year you'll get a top10 FWD without injury every time.
Or for 6k more you can get Wingard who might go bang, or save 15-20k and jump on Barlow who could go back to a 100+ or even Robinson who lookied promising late last year.

If you pick them from the start it shouldn't matter how much their score fluctuates. If you told me Gunston or Roughead were going to average 96 and finish top 8 I'd pick them regardless of their inconsistency

 

[fargy]

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

If you pick them from the start it shouldn't matter how much their score fluctuates. If you told me Gunston or Roughead were going to average 96 and finish top 8 I'd pick them regardless of their inconsistency

Like I said in my post if you pick Rough or Guston and stay with them for the year you'll get a top10 FWD without injury every time.

But it matters to me if their scores fluctuates. It's great for your team one week to get a 165 but a 39 two weeks later when ladder positions are being set the week before SC finals is just plain yuk IMO.

 

[Krujan]

Like I said in my post if you pick Rough or Guston and stay with them for the year you'll get a top10 FWD without injury every time.

But it matters to me if their scores fluctuates. It's great for your team one week to get a 165 but a 39 two weeks later when ladder positions are being set the week before SC finals is just plain yuk IMO.

Nek Minnit

 

[stevebbb]

Nek Minnit

Pretty much

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Nek Minnit

Ohh just saw the news. Bummer. I like watching Roughie play.
Makes Gunston unpickable though as he will get a better defender on him now.

Better not mention anything about yellow vegetables or future super premos then.

 

[PowerDrafter]

JACK FITZPATRICK COME ON DOWN

 

[Souup]

Ohh just saw the news. Bummer. I like watching Roughie play.
Makes Gunston unpickable though as he will get a better defender on him now.

Better not mention anything about yellow vegetables or future super premos then.

Roughead missed 2 games last season. In these games, Gunston scored 61 and 86. As you stated this Roughead news has sadly ruled out both him and Gunston as options.

 

[markm106]

JACK FITZPATRICK COME ON DOWN

As bad as the injury is for Roughy the Hawks and the supporters, Fitzy stands to benefit if he can make most of his chance.

 

[toxic]

As bad as the injury is for Roughy the Hawks and the supporters, Fitzy stands to benefit if he can make most of his chance.

He must be about 10th in line to get a call up

 

[markm106]

He must be about 10th in line to get a call up

You'd think he's not necessarily coming straight in but Hawks got him for a reason.

 

[stevebbb]

Roughead missed 2 games last season. In these games, Gunston scored 61 and 86. As you stated this Roughead news has sadly ruled out both him and Gunston as options.

Gunston could be a cheap forward option when Roughy comes back towards the end of the season if his price drops significantly, as a F6/F7 loophole option

 

[Lums23]

Gunston could be a cheap forward option when Roughy comes back towards the end of the season if his price drops significantly, as a F6/F7 loophole option

I like it a lot

 

[Deliverance]

Gunston could be a cheap forward option when Roughy comes back towards the end of the season if his price drops significantly, as a F6/F7 loophole option

Could be a buddy to Gunston trade in the back half of the season if your that way inclined.

 

[lids2richo]

Anyone thinking about craig bird? Easily best 22 and think will score decent

 

[cdcanman]

JACK FITZPATRICK COME ON DOWN

Still a fair way down the pecking order at this stage.
Would need a big game or 2 in NAB, however did play his best junior footy as a full-forward

 

[Krujan]

Still a fair way down the pecking order at this stage.
Would need a big game or 2 in NAB, however did play his best junior footy as a full-forward

I would have thought the natural Roughy replacement up forward would be Schoenmakers?

 

[cdcanman]

I would have thought the natural Roughy replacement up forward would be Schoenmakers?

Remember, Schoenmakers was playing alongside Roughead to finish the season and played well enough to earn his spot for the GF. He would have been starting Rd1 with or without Rough. It's likely they'll select another tall/medium forward IMO. Plenty to choose from. It could be Spangher or O'Brien if they wish to go tall, Sicily if a mid-sized will suffice. Keep in mind, they drafted 2 mid-sized forwards at picks 19 (Burton, could have been a top 5 pick if eligible as a 17 y/o, before broken leg last year) and 44 (Hardwick, leading goal kicker in TAC cup last season) as well. The other complicating factor is whether Hawthorn play a second ruckman, which I think is more likely now after the Roughead injury. If they do go small, with Schoenmakers supporting McEvoy, 2 of the above mentioned will likely play.

Hawthorn could be surprisingly relevant SC wise depending on how all this plays out.

Even if one (or two) of their youngsters are named rd1, I'd imagine it would be a pretty risky selection given the competition for spots and the uncertainty around their preferred structure.

 

[Krujan]

Remember, Schoenmakers was playing alongside Roughead to finish the season and played well enough to earn his spot for the GF. He would have been starting Rd1 with or without Rough. It's likely they'll select another tall/medium forward IMO. Plenty to choose from. It could be Spangher or O'Brien if they wish to go tall, Sicily if a mid-sized will suffice. Keep in mind, they drafted 2 mid-sized forwards at picks 19 (Burton, could have been a top 5 pick if eligible as a 17 y/o, before broken leg last year) and 44 (Hardwick, leading goal kicker in TAC cup last season) as well. The other complicating factor is whether Hawthorn play a second ruckman, which I think is more likely now after the Roughead injury. If they do go small, with Schoenmakers supporting McEvoy, 2 of the above mentioned will likely play.

Hawthorn could be surprisingly relevant SC wise depending on how all this plays out.

Even if one (or two) of their youngsters are named rd1, I'd imagine it would be a pretty risky selection given the competition for spots and the uncertainty around their preferred structure.

Would Ceglar be an option to play Hale's old Forward/Relief Ruck role?

 

[cdcanman]

Would Ceglar be an option to play Hale's old Forward/Relief Ruck role?

Correct. I'd imagine he'd be first in line if they go that way (and like I said, I think the Roughead injury makes it more likely that they will).
The only other possibility would be Fitzpatrick. But his ruckwork has never been great, and he would need a big game or 2 in NAB to leapfrog Ceglar I would think.
Then again, who would of thought Hale would have had the success he had after transferring from NM? Maybe Fitzpatrick can have a similar renaissance

 

[Glorin]

You'd think he's not necessarily coming straight in but Hawks got him for a reason.

From training reports, Fitzpatrick sounds so far behind Hawthorn standard that he may start the season in Box Hill 2nds!

 

[Krujan]

From training reports, Fitzpatrick sounds so far behind Hawthorn standard that he may start the season in Box Hill 2nds!

I read a training report on the Hawks board a little while ago that Fitzpatrick was being out bodied by 1st year rookies.

 

[Glorin]

Would Ceglar be an option to play Hale's old Forward/Relief Ruck role?

Even before this, I have thought that Ceglar would come in and play that role. I am also thinking that Lake will be replaced by another tall, the logical replacement is Spanger with Brand/ Heatherly given plenty of opportunity.
With Rough going down it could mean 2 of these three playing or what is more likely is Sisily coming in and getting first Crack and Spanger can swing as required depending on opposition fwd structure. Have a feeling TOB may be down the order even behind the new boys.