2016 Forwards

[nameless]

Is the 115 point discrepancy (87 DT 202 SC) for Eddie Betts the biggest ever discrepancy in scores between the competitions??

 

[KenTucker]

I agree mate, I'd prefer to go without Mills, but I may not have a choice if he's looking really good. As I mentioned, I'll only pick Vandenberg if I feel I have no choice but to pick Mills in the mids.

For anyone who gives a crap (I doubt there are any, but this is an SC forum so i'll post some of my research anyway for people to consider), I've done some more analysis on Vandenbergs scoring last season...

First number is his SC score, second is the amount Melbourne lost/won by.

LOSSES
72 45pt
65 35pt
80 68pt
56 38pt
37 105pt
74 61pt
40 (Subbed at HT due to injury, on his way to ~90) 25pt
97 9pt
20 (Sub at 3QT) 37pt

60.11 average
62.62 average (Minus sub affected 40 point game)

WINS
99 26pt
107 32pt
131 39pt
90 24pt
81 23pt

101.6 average

I know 5 wins isn't a huge sample size, but if you want to add in that 9pt loss and game where he was injured about halfway through the 2nd when he was on 40 points (and let me give him 90 points assuming he plays out the rest of the game) and then subbed, he's averaging 99.2 over those 5 wins and 2 sub-30 point losses.

As you can see, there's a massive correlation between Melbourne's performances and his scoring. Melbourne play the following teams in their first 11 games..
(First number are my odds of Melbourne winning)
GWS - 40/60
Essendon 70/30
North Melbourne 20/80
Collingwood 35/65
Richmond 35/65
St Kilda 50/50
Gold Coast 50/50
Western Bulldogs 40/60
Brisbane 50/50
Port Adelaide 40/60
Hawthorn 10/100

I'm tipping they'll be 3-7 at worst, and more likely 4-6 after 10 games. I wouldn't expect them to be blown out of the water in any of those 6 losses either

I think a combination of Melbourne losing less games by 30+ points, winning a few more games than last year and Vandenberg getting a slight increase of minutes in the midfield would mean he'd become a solid selection, verging on a 95 average. He's 24 years old, with another pre-season under his belt (apparently he didn't leave the club over the off-season and continued to go to the gym, has had a great pre-season and stood out in match simulation and apparently been in the best 3-4 in Melbourne's intra clubs). Even if he doesn't increase his midfield minutes, he still averaged over 100 in Melbourne's wins playing mostly HFF occasionally getting minutes in the midfield. I'll obviously be watching Vandenberg very closely over the NAB games.

Regardless of whether or not you care about Vandenberg, at the very least I think Melbourne's first 10 games make their players look more attractive. For example, I think Gawn will have a field day against most those teams rucks, and if Melbourne can win 4-5 of them, I'm assuming he'll be averaging 110+ at the very least.

Good research mate, he is D/M so could be a possible F4. Other Melbourne PODS I like but will not be picking are Viney and Bayshaw.

 

[Souup]

Port should still be about that but the game itself is in the Alice.

My bad. Saw it was Melbourne's home game and assumed M.C.G. Happy to be corrected! I'd tip it even more in favour of the Power in that case

 

[SterlingArcher]

Still don't know how you can have Norf as basically a certainty and teams who finished above them not. Anyway, it doesn't matter.

Prelim final v elim final

 

[croweyrocks]

Melbourne fans or anyone else who knows. How is Petracca going? 100% training load?

 

[Daniel McL]

Melbourne fans or anyone else who knows. How is Petracca going? 100% training load?

Sounds like Christian is Petraccing along well

 

[Here2tellyouwhy]

Sounds like Christian is Petraccing along well

Didn't he brake a toe and miss a monty of running. Hoping to see him with some decent NAB minutes ASAP.

 

[markm106]

Melbourne fans or anyone else who knows. How is Petracca going? 100% training load?

An article in the HUN saying he won't play NAB. I was hoping he'd play in our 3rd but now looks unlikely. Doubtful for round 1 it seems. Although Brayshaw didn't play last year and was named round 1.

 

[croweyrocks]

An article in the HUN saying he won't play NAB. I was hoping he'd play in our 3rd but now looks unlikely. Doubtful for round 1 it seems. Although Brayshaw didn't play last year and was named round 1.

Wonder if he will be a downgrade target or we just chuck him in the midfield bench if not named rnd 1

 

[markm106]

Wonder if he will be a downgrade target or we just chuck him in the midfield bench if not named rnd 1

It would be great to know what Melbourne are planning. Coz if he's not playing round one I'm thinking he'll be in within first month. But that doesn't really help us playing SuperCoach.

 

[stevebbb]

F1-F4 of Dusty, Dahlhaus, Wingard and Barlow makes me hard

They'll all be top 6 forward imo

 

[Daniel McL]

F1-F4 of Dusty, Dahlhaus, Wingard and Barlow makes me hard

They'll all be top 6 forward imo

Almost exactly mine! Didn't have money for Barlow at F4 but my setup is Dusty, Dahlhaus, Wingard & Billings

 

[Hairy Lager]

I agree mate, I'd prefer to go without Mills, but I may not have a choice if he's looking really good. As I mentioned, I'll only pick Vandenberg if I feel I have no choice but to pick Mills in the mids.

For anyone who gives a crap (I doubt there are any, but this is an SC forum so i'll post some of my research anyway for people to consider), I've done some more analysis on Vandenbergs scoring last season...

First number is his SC score, second is the amount Melbourne lost/won by.

LOSSES
72 45pt
65 35pt
80 68pt
56 38pt
37 105pt
74 61pt
40 (Subbed at HT due to injury, on his way to ~90) 25pt
97 9pt
20 (Sub at 3QT) 37pt

60.11 average
62.62 average (Minus sub affected 40 point game)

WINS
99 26pt
107 32pt
131 39pt
90 24pt
81 23pt

101.6 average

I know 5 wins isn't a huge sample size, but if you want to add in that 9pt loss and game where he was injured about halfway through the 2nd when he was on 40 points (and let me give him 90 points assuming he plays out the rest of the game) and then subbed, he's averaging 99.2 over those 5 wins and 2 sub-30 point losses.

As you can see, there's a massive correlation between Melbourne's performances and his scoring. Melbourne play the following teams in their first 11 games..
(First number are my odds of Melbourne winning)
GWS - 40/60
Essendon 70/30
North Melbourne 20/80
Collingwood 35/65
Richmond 35/65
St Kilda 50/50
Gold Coast 50/50
Western Bulldogs 40/60
Brisbane 50/50
Port Adelaide 40/60
Hawthorn 10/100

I'm tipping they'll be 3-7 at worst, and more likely 4-6 after 10 games. I wouldn't expect them to be blown out of the water in any of those 6 losses either

I think a combination of Melbourne losing less games by 30+ points, winning a few more games than last year and Vandenberg getting a slight increase of minutes in the midfield would mean he'd become a solid selection, verging on a 95 average. He's 24 years old, with another pre-season under his belt (apparently he didn't leave the club over the off-season and continued to go to the gym, has had a great pre-season and stood out in match simulation and apparently been in the best 3-4 in Melbourne's intra clubs). Even if he doesn't increase his midfield minutes, he still averaged over 100 in Melbourne's wins playing mostly HFF occasionally getting minutes in the midfield. I'll obviously be watching Vandenberg very closely over the NAB games.

Regardless of whether or not you care about Vandenberg, at the very least I think Melbourne's first 10 games make their players look more attractive. For example, I think Gawn will have a field day against most those teams rucks, and if Melbourne can win 4-5 of them, I'm assuming he'll be averaging 110+ at the very least.

I'm a big fan of him and Gawn, I had both last year too.
If the 220k rookies become a must get a player of his ilk maybe the only choice or you could bank the cash, will consider. Oh and thanks for the post.

 

[Super Hans]

Prelim final v elim final

I was talking about regular season (pretty obvious as we were talking about Melbourne), but it's cool.

 

[Super Hans]

You forgot Cripps.

Swan's going to play forward a lot this year from what I've heard from the Pies. Greenwood, I would think is borderline best 22 although I'll stand corrected if that's not the case. If deGoey can rotate through the forward line and midfield along with Swan and Pendles, no reason why he won't go 85+ so long as he can keep up consistent form week to week.

I'm starting to really like him as a pick. I'm not sold on any forward premos under 500k (I can find reasons not to pick Boomer, Billings and Buddy, the three I've been looking at) so might as well go for a De Goey/Heeney type which allows Goldy in the ruck.

I'd be pretty happy if I can turn him into Lids/Montagna by the byes, or even better, keep him. Good player.

 

[Super Hans]

NT.Thunder thoughts on him?

 

[ArjenTheGreat]

I was talking about regular season (pretty obvious as we were talking about Melbourne), but it's cool.

Leaving aside your gorilla math...Melbourne haven't beaten North for 10 years. 20/80 is overs for the dees chances.

 

[Super Hans]

Leaving aside your gorilla math...Melbourne haven't beaten North for 10 years. 20/80 is overs for the dees chances.

Which is fine, my whole point was he was being way too kind to Melbourne in his odds.

 

[Krujan]

I'm starting to really like him as a pick. I'm not sold on any forward premos under 500k (I can find reasons not to pick Boomer, Billings and Buddy, the three I've been looking at) so might as well go for a De Goey/Heeney type which allows Goldy in the ruck.

I'd be pretty happy if I can turn him into Lids/Montagna by the byes, or even better, keep him. Good player.

I'm seriously considering DeGoey myself. At the moment that F4 spot is between him, Daisy & Wells. I feel that DeGoey has more upside than the other two though, who IMO are more of a risk due to lack of durability.

 

[Keg on legs]

I'm seriously considering DeGoey myself. At the moment that F4 spot is between him, Daisy & Wells. I feel that DeGoey has more upside than the other two though, who IMO are more of a risk due to lack of durability.

Judging by that am I right to assume you're going 4 premos / upper priced mids in defence?

I can afford 7 of them spread across both lines but at the moment I have 3 in defence and 4 in the fwd line. Will change though no doubt

 

[Krujan]

Judging by that am I right to assume you're going 4 premos / upper priced mids in defence?

I can afford 7 of them spread across both lines but at the moment I have 3 in defence and 4 in the fwd line. Will change though no doubt

I have Shaw, Boyd, Simpson & Bartel at the moment. Simpson might become McVeigh or Laird though. the last 2 starting Def upgrade spots to be filled with the best performed from the rest.

 

[Keg on legs]

I have Shaw, Boyd, Simpson & Bartel at the moment. Simpson might become McVeigh or Laird though. the last 2 starting Def upgrade spots to be filled with the best performed from the rest.

Nice. I've got shaw, laird, yeo and smith. But not 100% sold on then last 2.

I have dusty, Chad and Barlow up fwd and pretty happy with them at this stage

 

[cdcanman]

I'm seriously considering DeGoey myself. At the moment that F4 spot is between him, Daisy & Wells. I feel that DeGoey has more upside than the other two though, who IMO are more of a risk due to lack of durability.

Reasons not to pick DeGoey:
Pendlebury
Treleor
Sidebottom
Swan
Adams
Crisp
Greenwood
Blair

Kid has all the talent to be a very good SC pick. Just not sure he'll get the opportunity to be so this year.

 

[Krujan]

Reasons not to pick DeGoey:
Pendlebury
Treleor
Sidebottom
Swan
Adams
Crisp
Greenwood
Blair

Kid has all the talent to be a very good SC pick. Just not sure he'll get the opportunity to be so this year.

A lot of teams have 10+ players rotating through the midfield, will be even more this year. I already rate DeGoey above Greenwood & Blair. Also, Swan will play mostly forward this year. Pendles will see some forward time as well. There's enough room in the mid/fwd rotations for DeGoey IMO.

 

[cdcanman]

A lot of teams have 10+ players rotating through the midfield, will be even more this year. I already rate DeGoey above Greenwood & Blair. Also, Swan will play mostly forward this year. Pendles will see some forward time as well. There's enough room in the mid/fwd rotations for DeGoey IMO.

Enough for him to be SC relevant though? What would he need to score in order to be worthwhile? And will he see enough mid time to get there?
He'll get mid minutes, just not sure enough to score as he would need to. How many team's 6th or 7th best mid averages 95+? Perhaps another way of looking at it. Fair chance we'll all be picking him in the coming years, just not sure it'll be this year for me