4 talls in defence and 6 up front? What?!
Based on the list as it stands at present, circa 2020 we have two key intercept defenders (Plowman and Weitering) and two rebounding defenders (Docherty and Byrne). All four will make it, and be very good. Im assuming Touhy, Rowe and Simpson are long gone come 2020, and Byrne has stepped into Touhys shoes.
Coming through we have JGM (developing rookie) to maybe step into Rowes shoes (body on body key defender) and can slot an elder statesman mid into the sweeper role currently filled by Simpson. We then have three sweeping defenders and two key defenders (three if JGM makes it). For mine, we need one more key defender (as either redundancy, or for 4 taller defenders + 2 sweepers on the list).
Marchbank (or someone like Talia) fill that need for an extra defender.
Up forward we will have four on the list (circa 2020) with no guarantee any will make it (McKay, Curnow, Jacksh, SOSOS). Casboult, Everitt and Walker will all be long gone by 2020. Among that four we could use another tall key forward (think Cloke/ Casboult/ Reiwoldt/ Walker) and another leadup forward (think Stringer/ Darling).
I doubt all four young forwards make it. Even adding two to that list of four gives us six key forwards in total developing, of which most likely only 3-4 make it. Around those three to fouor we can slot a small forward, ruckman or resting mid up there to fill the gap.
Going forward with just those four as our forwards is untenable. Key forwards take longer than mids (3+ years), and the odds of all four making it are small. Accordingly we need key forwards going forwards, and we need them now.
Best case scenario is that all six forwards (the current four of SOSOS, Jacksh, McKay and Curnow plus the two more I propose we draft) all make it. Highly unlikely and would be a
massive win if so. Opens up depth, and trading opportunities if so (key forwards go for a premium). More likely around four make it, and thats the baseline we should be aiming for.
For mids, we have a good core of Cripps, the 3 number 1's plus Thomas and Curnow. Those six should be around for the better part of the next 4 years (while any drafted key forwards develop). An experienced core of mids (and a young gun) to prop the mid field up while we first get in more key forwards, and then spend 3-4 years drafting in their replacements.
In short, for mine we're two 18-20 year old key forwards and one key back short. We need to draft them now, and get a few years into them during the rebuild while our experienced mids are still up and running.
Starting next year we can focus on mids over the drafts 2017 onwards to replace an ageing Gibbs, Murph, Thomas and Curnow.
We should be hitting season 2020 with a list all around the 19-25 age bracket, and three - four years experience, development and playing together in the forwards and defenders. Our midfield will be led by a 24 year old 100 gamer in Cripps leading a midfield of young 1st rounders taken in the 17, 18 and 19 drafts (maybe with a 32 year old Murph and Gibbs still floating around) plus any F/A or trades we pick up.
We can add more mids in drafts 20, 21, 22, etc going forwards. Our forwards and defenders will all be around 27 by the end of this process and we can start to look to shore them up (and draft more in) starting in 2023 and onwards.
Super confused how we're getting this next GWS4 for a pick in the 20s as well, and then there's the idea that having the tallest team in the AFL supersedes having genuine midfield depth.
We need both. I dont see the point of putting all our eggs in the [Jacksh, McKay, SOSOS and Curnow] basket, focussing on mids over the next 4 years and then hitting 2020 with a non existent forward line and the lack of a powerful key defender to play on the bigger boys.
I'd rather get half a dozen forwards, and half a dozen defenders now (all in the 18-22 age bracket) and then concentrate on mids starting next year, so the whole side (mids, forwards, defenders) is hitting 2020 with an age bracket of 18-26 and the forwards and defenders have three plus years of development in them already as opposed to having a gun midfield in 2020 and no-one to kick to (or having to draft key forwards in 2020 and wasting three to four years of having a gun midfield with them developing).
The forwards and backs need to be slightly older (and have more development) than the mids as opposed to the other way around.
Oh and what are we doing with the 12 talls on our list that you haven't named? Only 5 of them are out of contract. Our list balance is already madness in terms of pushing for finals, and you seem to think we're playing with GWS' listing rules.
Im advocating drafting two players this year. A key defender in Marchbank or similar (locking our back six away for a decade) and a key forward like Battle (to add to our forward stocks). Thats a far cry from applying 'GWS listing rules'.
Assuming we can secure those two this year (another key forward and another key defender), then from 2017, 18, 19, 20 onwards I advocate focussing on mids to replace Murph, Gibbs etc as they retire (with one additional key forward if one becomes available). Thats four first and second round draft picks (and 4 years of F/A and trades) to find 5 mids (to add to Cripps) and a key forward.