Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

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Jimmae

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Based on the list as it stands at present, circa 2020 we have two key intercept defenders (Plowman and Weitering) and two rebounding defenders (Docherty and Byrne). All four will make it, and be very good. Im assuming Touhy, Rowe and Simpson are long gone come 2020, and Byrne has stepped into Touhys shoes.
Your plan is to contend in 4 years? Pretty sure the club's plan is to contend within 2, but either way Tuohy is 26 and he'll be around.

Coming through we have JGM (developing rookie) to maybe step into Rowes shoes (body on body key defender) and can slot an elder statesman mid into the sweeper role currently filled by Simpson. We then have three sweeping defenders and two key defenders (three if JGM makes it). For mine, we need one more key defender (as either redundancy, or for 4 taller defenders + 2 sweepers on the list).

Marchbank (or someone like Talia) fill that need for an extra defender.
So you're talking about depth, well phew. I agree we need to begin to replace Rowe and Jamison. Marchbank begins to address that, but in reality, we shouldn't be allocating much more than 35% of the list allocation towards talls if we only intend them to take up 35% of the team.

That's 16 or 17 talls on a balanced list of 46, and that's working under the assumption that there's plenty of flexibility in that tall unit to supplement pace at either end or through the middle. Our tally this year is 20, and you seem to be advocating for either increasing or maintaining that number.

Up forward we will have four on the list (circa 2020) with no guarantee any will make it (McKay, Curnow, Jacksh, SOSOS). Casboult, Everitt and Walker will all be long gone by 2020. Among that four we could use another tall key forward (think Cloke/ Casboult/ Reiwoldt/ Walker) and another leadup forward (think Stringer/ Darling).
Again, Casboult may not be gone if we shift the timeframe back to 2018.

I doubt all four young forwards make it. Even adding two to that list of four gives us six key forwards in total developing, of which most likely only 3-4 make it. Around those three to fouor we can slot a small forward, ruckman or resting mid up there to fill the gap.
I concur with one exception, I count 9 young talls (23 and under) that we're developing in non-ruck roles, and 6 of them would best considered forwards.

You've completely overlooked Gorringe and Foster in this hypothetical. Whatever your thoughts, both are being trained to play primarily at one end of the ground, and both are on the list.

For mids, we have a good core of Cripps, the 3 number 1's plus Thomas and Curnow. Those six should be around for the better part of the next 4 years (while any drafted key forwards develop). An experienced core of mids (and a young gun) to prop the mid field up while we first get in more key forwards, and then spend 3-4 years drafting in their replacements.
This all shifts when you shift your expectations 18-24 months, as you should given the nature of this industry. Why would you make a succession plan longer than most coaches' contracts? This far-fetched 5+ year timeline is useless unless a football club has been completely gutted, and even then you surely have the cap space to make some free agency moves.

In short, for mine we're two 18-20 year old key forwards and one key back short. We need to draft them now, and get a few years into them during the rebuild while our experienced mids are still up and running.
I'll grant you that we do need to bring in at least one young KPD on the senior in addition to Marchbank, but if we get the GWS4 we're going to have play some key forwards on the wing if you want draft some too, though given our clearance numbers it might be a good idea to turn defence straight into attack a little more literally.

In terms of your other points, we seem to agree, save for the year we seek to build the list for. If we're still twiddling our thumbs in 2019 and don't make key changes to some staff or processes at that point, we'll have already screwed up our drafting in 2015 & 2016.
 

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TooBlue14

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I think we're quite set for now in the intercept back department and running defender jobs. Our pressing need is another lock down defender like others have said. Someone to stop the monster full forwards. But JGM can be that in a few years as Rowe falls away. But he could still play for 3-4 years. Our midfield needs another inside ball magnet and a selfish inside plus outside runner with elite ball movement (Dangerfield-like). But I don't see us getting someone like this through drafting as its hit and miss. We're more likely to see Steele turn into this or crouch from Adelaide. In this draft and our pick range Jordan gallucci could fit this, however is he worth more than marchbank, Steele, Stewart, Tomlinson while we might also be able to pick up SPS in the second round too. I'm insure.
 

DaVillaBlues

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I have to admit i've gone cold on Tomlinson after i saw that skit he did on Channel 7 with another Giants teammate with Jeff Goldblum, and saying how Basil Zempilas is a dopplegangar of Goldblum.. :eek:
 

Coona Blues

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On this we agree. Rowe is our most pressing need down back. I can see Docherty and Byrne being rebounding defenders, and Plowman and Weitering being taller intercept types. Going forward we need a third tall 'body on body' type (a job Rowe is doing well at present, but is a placeholder only).



I dont like placing all my eggs in the JGM basket. He's a developing rookie. Plus; even if he does and we trade in Marchbank having 4 talented key tall defenders on the list is better than having three, even if JGM does make it. We have the option then of going taller with 4 taller defenders, and have a little depth should one go down (again - this assumes that JGM makes it).



I'm not overly worried about an extra sweeper. Docherty and Byrne have that locked up at present, andmost teams are content to place a skilled mid down back to fill an extra sweeper role (Hodge, us with Simpson, Lappin, Scotland etc).

With 4 talls (whould we draft another, and JGM make it) and 2 sweepers, we can play a taller backline when needed, or take a tall out and replace him with a rebounding defender/ sweeper (bearing in mind the two sweepers at present will be a virtual all Australian in Docherty and Byrne). We have some flexibity and depth in addition to talent and youth.

We need a Rowe replacement. Like for like, just younger. Marchbank fills this need for mine.



I agree the midfield is worrying, but at present its 3 x number 1's (Gibbs, Murphy, Kruezer) Thomas, Curnow and young gun Cripps. That core will carry us just fine for another 3-4 years.

Im not advocating ignoring mids for the next 3-4 years - just advocating getting one more key defender (to replace Rowe) and two more key forwards (another tall KPP type, and a lead up full forward type) before we stock up on more mids with an eye to the list circa 2020. KPPs take longer to develop and benefit from playing together for a few years. Mids can contribute straight away, and dont take as long as the KPPs. Plus there is every chance that one of Gibbs or Murphy could still be running around next to a 24 year old Cripps and a handfull of 20 year old 1st round draft pick Mids circa 2020.



No we didnt. We're not even close to be putting the cue in the rack for forwards for mine. Circa 2020 we have four forwards - McKay, Curnow, SOSOS and Jacksh. It is highly unlikely that all four make it, and even if they do, four is not enough.



See what you're doing? You're adding Levi (who wont be around come 2020, and is still a massive question mark now) and two key defenders (Weitering and Marchbank) to our forward line (leaving two big holes in defence). This is in addition to assuming that all four forwards we currently have all make it (odds are that they wont).

You're robbing Peter to pay Paul, assuming players who struggle to contribute meaningfully now will be able to contribue at 31 years of age, and also assuming that all four of the forwards we drafted last year and they year before all make it (odds are almost certain they wont).

How about instead we leave the key defenders in key defensive positions, draft two key forwards instead (to bring the 2020 stocks of both up to six) and develop those key forwards and key backs over the next three to four years we wont be challenging? With six key forwards, odds are that around 3-4 make it, leaving room for a small forward and a resting ruckman or mid - plus we dont have to gut the defence of two players likely to be our two best defenders in 2020.

Get the forwards and backs sorted now, and lets give them 3-4 years to play together, develop together and gel.

We then use those three-four years to aquire replacements for Murph, Gibbs, Kruezer, Thomas and E Curnow.
Marchbank at 193cm and 90kg rounded defender with a bit of dare and dash is not an apples to apples replacement for big Sam Rowe
at 198/97 who is more lockdown come pinch hitting ruckman.

Your perception of rebounding defenders/sweepers is dated along the same lines as Malthouse's game plan, the game has moved.
Ability to read the game, run/rebound and most importantly distribute while maintaining an effective "zone" is exponentially more
critical today. The Western Bulldogs (pre injury), GWS, and Eagles mobile backline model is currently in vogue, and likely to be for
the foreseeable future.

The fact that we may not draft a key position player this year, in no way means we will only have the current talls (who would survive
two years of culling) in 2020. We will draft talls over the next four years and need to spread our age demographic.

We need young mids. If we aren't/weren't trading this year it is highly likely that we would draft three complimentary midfielders
(may happen yet) We need an inside partner for Crippa, and two players with line breaking and ball distributing, by foot prowess,
with at least one being a genuine "dasher". (if we were to acquire Steele and Tomlinson would need at least one dasher/distributor)
*There is a significant argument to get a mature inside type to complement Cripps rather than draft a less developed kid*

The profile and readiness of our forward line is up for debate, however by profile, we should not be expending a high draft pick on another
"unproven" tall. You keep banging on about Battle, who is drawing some negative questions through the Championships. Battle stands at 192cm,
so is in the Curnow/Silvagni height range, not genuine KPP height by modern standards (where is The Shiek?) Battle is no more bankable than
any of our boys from the last draft, why add another to the list, while midfielders are so scarce?

BTW.......You read what you want to read. Please quote where I ever suggested playing Marchbank forward.
 

LordLucifer

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Marchbank at 193cm and 90kg rounded defender with a bit of dare and dash is not an apples to apples replacement for big Sam Rowe at 198/97 who is more lockdown come pinch hitting ruckman.
With all this talk about securing Marchbank, I'm quite surprised no-one has made this point earlier.

I keep reading how he is an ideal replacement for Rowe and is a readymade KPD yet no-one till now has looked at his physical limitations in that area.
 
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Your plan is to contend in 4 years? Pretty sure the club's plan is to contend within 2, but either way Tuohy is 26 and he'll be around.
I dont think we can turn it around in two years. Heck, I doubt our draftees from last year will be having any impact in two years (barring Wiets). If we're doing a rebuild, lets do it right. Two draft years on key forwards and defenders (one and a half down already), and three years on mids. We should be aiming for top 8 in 2019/20, and top 4 by '21/22. This year, next year and the year after (16, 17 and 18) are developlment and recruiting years.

We enter the 8 in '19 and draft more mids, or look to a F/A mid. We enter the top 4 in 21/22.

Im advocating a methodical and hollistic approach for sustained and long term success, not a quick fix.
 

Jimmae

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I dont think we can turn it around in two years. Heck, I doubt our draftees from last year will be having any impact in two years (barring Wiets). If we're doing a rebuild, lets do it right. Two draft years on key forwards and defenders (one and a half down already), and three years on mids. We should be aiming for top 8 in 2019/20, and top 4 by '21/22. This year, next year and the year after (16, 17 and 18) are developlment and recruiting years.

We enter the 8 in '19 and draft more mids, or look to a F/A mid. We enter the top 4 in 21/22.

Im advocating a methodical and hollistic approach for sustained and long term success, not a quick fix.
I'm advocating the exact same thing as you, and feel that we are pretty much one year into a 3-year rebuild, at the end of which we should be pushing for finals. You can't sell sustainable growth to any stakeholders in the club without such plans, whether they be players, staff or prospective members. Even the journalists who kept plucking the phrase '5-year plan' out of their arses have back-tracked.

After three years, we should be looking at how to push into a prelim if we haven't already, and from there anything can happen if we've been prudent with our how we've traded and drafted.

It's not about trying to find some magic formula: it's about recognising when to accelerate, and recognising when to slow down or change direction. We're not going to have a tank of nitro fall into our lap, and it's not going to come without some form of downside.
 

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Everything ive heard about Battle is he's not much chop. Dont know why anyone would be advocating drafting him here.
That's the thing none of the key position players in this years draft look like a dominate #1 key forward.
Certainly wouldn't be using a top 5 pick on any of them at this stage.
It's not the height that I'm concerned about with Battle watched him play for Country V Metro last week and he just seem to have zero presents.
He did hit one absolute bullet of a pass to Ainsworth on the lead, which showed he does have some decent foot skills.
Ainsworth who stands at 179cm had way more impact.
 
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I see your point and definitely still hope for them but may I just add that Sicily had absolute stars like Roughead and gunston keeping him out of the team...jaksch has been kept out for casboult, Everitt, white and Jones.
I get that but Sicily is only 186cm tall, he is not vying for the spots of Roughy and Gunston. He is now too good to leave out and they have made a spot for him. And KJ may be being kept back for development rather than kept out by those you mention.
 

HalAlaric

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I have it on good authority that Marchbank is now pushing 100kgs. Has been working exceptionally hard on bulking up since he was drafted. Mid way last year he was sitting at 90kg.

Have no idea how this may translate for him while playing as players normally drop a few to refrain from injury, but he is more than capable of taking on the monster fwds with this weight and his ability to read the play so well.

Having said all this I want to hang onto our 1st pick for the next two years. Next year we trade our 2018 1st for another 1st round pick in 2017 so we can grab two highly rated youngsters. In 2018 we can just group lesser picks if a bid is made on Ben who will almost certainly go early.
 

Blue and Silver

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Re: The Midfielder discussion

First thing is that this is a midfielders draft. Brodie, Bowes, Petrovski-Seton, Powell-Pepper, Scharenberg, McLuggage, Venables, Taranto, Gallucci, Scheer, Allison, Partfitt and on and on and on.

You can only pick who is around, and it is not unlikely that the best at our pick would be a midfielder.

Second thing, not all draftees make it and we need to address our youth talent gap. While we certainly have midfield coverage in the mid-term, the long-term still looms, and it is not unreasonable to try and start plugging holes, particularly since some of our mids are likely to see more action elsewhere on the field (Thomas to HB is my guess).

Third thing, forwards needs addressing without doubt, but it is the shorter forwards I would like to see us consider. Right now we don't have that real consistent goal-scorer outside of Everitt, while we have McKay, Curnow, Jaksch and Silvagni at the taller end of the scale, Gallucci is the only untried talent in the forward line who is sub-190.

If we got that GWS4mkII deal, we could reasonably think that our draft picks were best focused on getting the best kids regardless of position, and that this might include several midfielders.
 

thylacine60

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If we got that GWS4mkII deal, we could reasonably think that our draft picks were best focused on getting the best kids regardless of position, and that this might include several midfielders.
Regarding that, I recently spoke to a casual acquaintance with no knowledge of AFL and he seemed to think the deal is as good as done.
 

Funk

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Not saying you're wrong but seems so early to in the year for the board to come to a conclusion like that, but if its true so be it all those players would be great additions to our squad.
I have posted previously that last years deal with GWS was set up at least 6 months before the trade period.

Given that fact then it makes sense that SOS is already well down the path on this years deals.

GWS will be wanting to get their plans locked away early so they can plan player contracts to keep within their TPP.

Although GWS get extra $ they have a lot of seriously good players and somehow have to squeeze them all inside a salary cap projected forward 5 years.

Eg they might be trying to forward load some contracts so they don't end up in a massive squeeze when they are seriously contending in 2-3 years time.
 

RattAttack

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If the GWS4 deal is in the pipeworks then surely we will be seeing some active player trading at year end. The proposed GWS4 suggests that we will part with our 1st and 2nd rounder. Regardless of how good those 4 players are there is no way that SOS will intend on hitting the draft with picks in the 40's and 50's.

I sense we might see some much loved players (of some value) being traded out. The amount of players currently still OOC would indicate that may be the case. Not sure who will be put up.
 

Farktherest

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If the GWS4 deal is in the pipeworks then surely we will be seeing some active player trading at year end. The proposed GWS4 suggests that we will part with our 1st and 2nd rounder. Regardless of how good those 4 players are there is no way that SOS will intend on hitting the draft with picks in the 40's and 50's.

I sense we might see some much loved players (of some value) being traded out. The amount of players currently still OOC would indicate that may be the case. Not sure who will be put up.
Everitt and Rowe would have currency...and hypothetically they'd be replaced by Marchbank, Tomlinson and Stewart. But they are the only 2 I can think of who have currency and we might be willing to trade.

Everitt is a roaming tall half forward who is a good kick for goal. Rowe has been exceptional for us this year...great at full back and is versatile pinch hitting forward and in the ruck.

Sydney could make a play for Rowe...Grundy and Richards coming to the end with not much to replace them. he'd also be useful for the Dogs, Adelaide, Port and Melbourne.

I'm certain Thomas will stay with us...decent form this year and is a vocal leader. At his age doubt we would get much for him anyway.

I'd rather keep Graham and Buckley for now...both have shown glimpses and have potential...they are fringe players atm but can't trade out all our depth.
 
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