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Based on the list as it stands at present, circa 2020 we have two key intercept defenders (Plowman and Weitering) and two rebounding defenders (Docherty and Byrne). All four will make it, and be very good. Im assuming Touhy, Rowe and Simpson are long gone come 2020, and Byrne has stepped into Touhys shoes.
Coming through we have JGM (developing rookie) to maybe step into Rowes shoes (body on body key defender) and can slot an elder statesman mid into the sweeper role currently filled by Simpson. We then have three sweeping defenders and two key defenders (three if JGM makes it). For mine, we need one more key defender (as either redundancy, or for 4 taller defenders + 2 sweepers on the list).
Marchbank (or someone like Talia) fill that need for an extra defender.
Marchbank (or someone like Talia) fill that need for an extra defender.
That's 16 or 17 talls on a balanced list of 46, and that's working under the assumption that there's plenty of flexibility in that tall unit to supplement pace at either end or through the middle. Our tally this year is 20, and you seem to be advocating for either increasing or maintaining that number.
Up forward we will have four on the list (circa 2020) with no guarantee any will make it (McKay, Curnow, Jacksh, SOSOS). Casboult, Everitt and Walker will all be long gone by 2020. Among that four we could use another tall key forward (think Cloke/ Casboult/ Reiwoldt/ Walker) and another leadup forward (think Stringer/ Darling).
I doubt all four young forwards make it. Even adding two to that list of four gives us six key forwards in total developing, of which most likely only 3-4 make it. Around those three to fouor we can slot a small forward, ruckman or resting mid up there to fill the gap.
You've completely overlooked Gorringe and Foster in this hypothetical. Whatever your thoughts, both are being trained to play primarily at one end of the ground, and both are on the list.
For mids, we have a good core of Cripps, the 3 number 1's plus Thomas and Curnow. Those six should be around for the better part of the next 4 years (while any drafted key forwards develop). An experienced core of mids (and a young gun) to prop the mid field up while we first get in more key forwards, and then spend 3-4 years drafting in their replacements.
In short, for mine we're two 18-20 year old key forwards and one key back short. We need to draft them now, and get a few years into them during the rebuild while our experienced mids are still up and running.
In terms of your other points, we seem to agree, save for the year we seek to build the list for. If we're still twiddling our thumbs in 2019 and don't make key changes to some staff or processes at that point, we'll have already screwed up our drafting in 2015 & 2016.

