Yes, I do still hold that view, we will play finals next season.
The poster you referenced had a clearly laid out vision of how the trading would go, no where did it include giving up pick #4 or more for Prestia. No body has suggested that, in fact, no experienced AFL trade observer would suggest such a thing. Prestia is originally a what? Pick #9, he's currently out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, has had other injuries in the past and is, most importantly, out of contract. No one will be giving pick #4 for Prestia, it will be a much lower deal. I'd suggest somewhere in the #12-20 range or equivalent players/points. Again, no one has suggested Marchbank is worth pick #4, and we won't be giving up pick #4 for him, the Carlton football club has categorically stated we will not be trading out of the first round this year. No matter who we get trade wise, we'll still have at least one pick in the first round. Mitchell, yes "let's not forgwt the midfield he has around him" I agree with that. Because you seem to think Mitchell is some outside midfielder who gets all his disposals off the hard work of others, oh wait, he's a contested bast, has a good tank and gives a scrap. Mitchell is in no way "protected" by the other midfielders. He's not the type of player you tag because his outside work isn't particularly damaging and you can't stop his inside work. He'd be "protected" at Carlton as well as other clubs would always see Cripps, Murphy or Gibbs as more damaging. Will he have the same impact here? You bet he would, he may even have more of an impact.
I'm all for your trading older experienced players and later picks for higher picks. I agree with that. How would you propose to have a functioning forward line without Casboult is another question. As for the building out of the draft. No body disagrees with you here. I agree with that completely. I've constantly said any trades we should do should be based around trading our 2017 first pick, as we will go up the ladder (As I said above) and we can always trade back into the first round by moving on kids or other mature age players and using our second round pick next year. As for two top 10 picks, well this year would have to be the worst year to do that. Outside of the top 3-5 players it's basically even down to about the twentieth kid. This will be one of those years where pick #16 turns out better than pick #6 etc etc. Two picks in the top 10 is probably worth less this year than any other year. We should aim for one pick in the top four or multiple picks in the #10-20 range.
Lol i'm not going to respond to people who suggest trading Gibbs, they obviously don't know anything about football.
All well and good, it's certainly one way we could go down, but I think there are better ways.
Prestia was one of the top 20 midfielders in the game when GC have been well and truly above us on the ladder. They've fallen down the ladder largely due to players like O'Meara, Swallow, Prestia etc being injured for lengths of time. Marchbank was best 22 at the start of the season, played very well and only fell out due to small niggling injuries. Kid is talented. And Mitchell, as you said, is clearlhy best 22 at the Swans.
Cripps was taken at pick #13 or so, plenty of great footballers have been taken at late first round positions. And if we're really desperate for a top pick. Our first and second can be easily packaged up to an Academy club for their first for points reasons.
As for the Hawks period, they didn't exist in a period where half the top end talent was cornered away at an expansion club. I'm not going to dive too far into that whole conundrum, as it's a bit superflous, you could talk about any club and have different results from their trading. We just need to trust SOS and the team to build a quality list.
Now let's look at the Carlton team; we already have the following elite talent on the list. Bolded being well and truly proven. I know we have more kids than this in total, but I think these are the kids who are elite or could be best 22 in a Carlton finals side.
2011 Draft: Sumner?? (10)
Docherty (12) Kerridge?? (27)
2012 Draft:
Plowman (3) Jaksch?? (12) Graham?? (54)
2013 Draft:
Cripps (13)
Byrne (Cat B Rookie)
2014 Draft: Boekhurst?? (19) Viojo-Rainbow?? (28)
2015 Draft:
Weitering (1) McKay?? (10)
Curnow (12) Cuningham?? (23) Silvagni?? (53)
I personally think, adding another young, maturer player into the mix who will have an immediate impact is not a bad thing. And I don't believe drafting and trading in players are mutually exclusive. Last year we managed to trade 4 kids inside the top 25 and bring in elite talent via trade. I think we can add elite young talent via trade and the draft this off season.
Do I think we can get Prestia and Mitchell in probably not. But I think we can well and truly secure; Prestia/Mitchell, Pick #4, and a few kids from GWS, maybe Marchbank if we can get the deal right. At the cost of say; Casboult, Touhy, 2017 First and some Seconds/Thirds.
Aquire;
- (GWS 3/4, Marchbank, Tomlinson, Steele/Ahern/WHE, Stewart) = 2017 First Round & Carlton 2016 3rd Round
- Option 1 (Mitchell) = #14 and Touhy. Trade Casboult to Brisbane/Fremantle for pick #20/21 (before FA picks), 3rd Rounder might be necessary to add along here. Trade Pick #20 and Carlton 2nd Round Pick to GWS for GWS's 1st, Roughly #14. Trade #14 and Touhy to Sydney for Mitchell.
- Option 1(a) (GC 3rd) = Trade Everitt to GC for their 3rd Round Pick, or higher if they have one.
- Option 2 (Prestia) = #14 and Everitt. Trade Casboult to Brisbane/Fremantle for pick #20/21 (before FA picks), 3rd Rounder might be necessary to add along here. Trade Pick #20 and Carlton 2nd Round Pick to GWS for GWS's 1st, Roughly #14. Trade #14 and Everitt to Gold Coast for Prestia.
- Option 2(a) (Syd 2nd) = Trade Touhy to Sydney for their 2nd Round Pick
GAIN: Marchbank, Tomlinson, Steele, Stewart, Mitchell/Prestia and GC 3rd/Syd 2nd
LOSE: 2017 1st Rounder, 2016 2nd Rounder, 3rd Rounder, Bulldogs 3rd Rounder, Casboult, Everitt and Touhy
RETAIN: 2016 1st Rounder
The elite youth would look like so;
2010 Draft:
Prestia (9)
2011 Draft:
Tomlinson?? (9) Sumner?? (10)
Docherty (12)
Mitchell (21) Kerridge?? (27)
2012 Draft:
Plowman (3) Jaksch?? (12)
Stewart?? (27) Graham?? (54)
2013 Draft:
Cripps (13)
Byrne (Cat B Rookie)
2014 Draft:
Marchbank (6) Boekhurst?? (19)
Steele (24) Viojo-Rainbow?? (28)
2015 Draft:
Weitering (1) McKay?? (10)
Curnow (12) Cuningham?? (23) Silvagni?? (53)
2016 Draft:
Elite Mid (4) Sydney 2nd, Rookies/Late Picks such as Kerbatieh and Bradley
I prefer Mitchell over Prestia for Mitchells durability, although Prestia is the player with more strings to his bow. Let's for arguments sake, say Will Brodie is pick #4 that we draft this year, because I absolutely love the look of Brodie, although he'll probably go top 2.
FB: Byrne Weitering Marchbank
HB: Docherty Plowman Viojo-Rainbow
R: xxxx Cripps Brodie
C: Boekhurst Mitchell Cuningham
HF: Curnow Stewart Tomlinson
FF: Silvagni McKay Sumner
Int: Steele, Jaksch, Kerridge, Graham
I don't know about others, but I think that's a pretty bloody stellar looking line up.
Then we trade back into the 2017 First round and add another capable kid there, and focus on two things from 2017 onwards, nabbing big Free Agents and hitting our first rounders right.
Looking at the age profile, if we do what I propose, we'll bunch up a lot of our elite kids in the 2011-2015 Draft bracket, a tight bunching that will mean most will peak together and that will be the key to success. From then on we just keep adding kids into an already tight and strong youth core and the snowball effect happens. We go onto win three premierships in a row etc etc.