Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

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Bryce is pretty durable. He is on track to play 350 games. I think he is playing a much better type of footy under Bolton too. Thats another 150 games of pretty much what he is doing now, maybe moving more forward as a mid that plays of HFF, or move back and play as a QB HBF. To replace what he brings to us right now, if its a pick we need to pick up a 200 game player. Thats 50 games to settle in and 150 quality games. I dont think anyone is giving us a pick 10-20 straight out for Gibbs which is what we would need to give us a fair chance to break even. Its too late to trade Gibbs.
Murphy may play another 100 games, but he has missed games and I would think more likely to miss more games from injury as he gets older. Yet I thinhk we would get a better pick for Murph than Gibbs. If anyone thinks we should trade Bryce before Murph, they are dreaming, and its probably too late to trade either.
 

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DaVillaBlues

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If Richmond is having a fire sale, i want us to try trade for Shane Edwards, was a gun last year (before he broke his leg)

Would adapt well into Bolton's system, I believe
 

goreds

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Now that you've put it like that.......... :)
We have to get 'there' as quickly as possible a la Crows, Cats, Swans.

Anyone who thinks 4-5 drafts with early picks is going to create a winning environment is kidding themselves.

2 A graders this year, 3 B graders with later picks/ or bundled with an earlier trade and then our depth is almost where we need it...
 

Mr_Plow

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I can see the merit in Shane Edwards. AFL player rankings suggest he is Richmond's 4th best player behind Rance, Martin and Deledio.

Turns 28 in 2 months though.

If we can manufacture Everitt and a 3rd rounder into a late 2nd, I'd do it.

Doubt Richmond would... maybe?
 

goreds

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I can see the merit in Shane Edwards. AFL player rankings suggest he is Richmond's 4th best player behind Rance, Martin and Deledio.

Turns 28 in 2 months though.

If we can manufacture Everitt and a 3rd rounder into a late 2nd, I'd do it.

Doubt Richmond would... maybe?
Outside our age criteria...
 

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TerryWallet

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We have to get 'there' as quickly as possible a la Crows, Cats, Swans.

Anyone who thinks 4-5 drafts with early picks is going to create a winning environment is kidding themselves.

2 A graders this year, 3 B graders with later picks/ or bundled with an earlier trade and then our depth is almost where we need it...
Oh no....the tried and true Carlton shortcut culture still has life in it.

Since the draft was invented we haven't done it right once.

We are starting from scratch and we need all of:

1) a strong, smart List Manager
2) good coaching and development.
3) a base of top class real youth from the draft, ie: 3 years worth. We've already done the biggest 1.

Then THAT list can build a winning culture TOGETHER with the help of select senior and mid range players.

THIS threadbare list is not worth propping up with expensive, injured 24yo's.

We have already smartly got good solid guys cheaply like Kerridge, Philips, Wright, Curnow, Rowe etc to do the donkey work and set good examples to hopefully a quantity of quality real youth.
 

dangerousdane

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Everyone is aware that our list lacks talent and depth and it seems most are aware that a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th round selection at draft time each year just isn't enough. So a quick theory on how to improve our position.

Trade Cas to the Lions for pick 38.
Trade Tuohy and 40 for the Swans 1st (18)
Trade pick 4 and Everitt to GCS for pick 8 and 28
Trade picks 28 and 38 to GWS for pick 17

Trade pick 22 along with next years third for two or three of Marchbank/Tomlinson/Steele/Stewart

Go to the draft with 8, 17, 18, 48, 76
 

Blue_Fusion

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I hear you but...

Melbourne went on the youth train, by that I mean only take picks in the draft which built a list with 15 players under 21 in there starting side for 2 years. That built a losing culture...

We are not about that. We have to find the 21-23 year olds that will take our youngsters with them, a balanced listed age wise will create culture and a winning feeling.

Is there an O'Meara in this draft, or a weitering or even a Parish????

No.

That's 3 picks done so what's available after that.

Like a said, IF he passes the medical with flying colors, we have a once in a generation player, full stop...
It's a big IF and if he does, we still can't afford to go missing in the first 2 rounds of the next 2 drafts. I highly doubt he's going to cost a first and second round pick given he hasn't played for 2 years and is still pulling up with knee soreness these days.

Melbourne's slide was because of a combination of poor recruiting and development. Hawks went the draft route and look where it got them.

I think we can still get Marchbank with a second rounder. Throw in a third rounder and Tomlinson will come with him. Like I said, we haven't been getting done by opposition KPFs this year, the most we've copped was a 4 goal haul. It just doesn't make sense for us to give up our first pick for another KPD. I've seen people comparing our defence with Marchbank in it to Geelong's back in 07-11 era. Just need to remember their midfield consisted of Ablett, Bartel, Ling, Selwood, Kelly, Enright and Corey. What does our midfield consist of? Not even close.

I still think we need to keep our first round picks for this year and next at all costs and spend them on mids. Venables has some superstar traits to his game, just needs the right development to put it together. Next year who knows what pick we'll end up with but chances are it will be top 10 and next year's draft is already being spoken about as elite at the top end. There's about 8 players already spoken about going top 10, not all of them are mids so we will get our chance to pick up another high quality mid next year as well.

If we can somehow get JOM without giving up a first rounder that would be great. I'll leave it to Silvagni to work his magic and make it happen but I'm pretty sure he won't allow us to go missing in the first 2 rounds of the next 2 drafts for JOM, Marchbank and Tomlinson.
 

RudyBlue

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Ok ,
SOS asked me to keep it quiet ... but here it is !

2016 2nd rounder and 2017 2nd rounder for Marchbank Tomlinson and Stewart .

Tuohy and one of our 3rd rounders for Sydney's 1st rounder .

Casboult and our 4th rounder for anyone's 2nd rounder .

Sydney's 1st rounder , the Casboult 2nd rounder and Everitt for Omeara .

In : Marchbank Tomlinson Stewart Omeara

Out : Tuohy Casboult Everitt
2016 and 2017 second rounders

2016 Draft : Pick 6 Venables/Ainsworth
3rd rounder ?
Upgrade Byrne with 5th rounder
Rookie draft selections

Possible FA , DFA

Simpson Marchbank Plowman
Docherty Weitering Byrne
Murphy Cripps Boekhorst
C.Curnow Tomlinson Venables/Ainsworth
Silvagni Stewart/McKay Sumner

Phillips Gibbs Omeara

E.Curnow Kruezer Thomas Cuningham
I know SOS too
 

LanceRomance

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It's a big IF and if he does, we still can't afford to go missing in the first 2 rounds of the next 2 drafts. I highly doubt he's going to cost a first and second round pick given he hasn't played for 2 years and is still pulling up with knee soreness these days.

Melbourne's slide was because of a combination of poor recruiting and development. Hawks went the draft route and look where it got them.

I think we can still get Marchbank with a second rounder. Throw in a third rounder and Tomlinson will come with him. Like I said, we haven't been getting done by opposition KPFs this year, the most we've copped was a 4 goal haul. It just doesn't make sense for us to give up our first pick for another KPD. I've seen people comparing our defence with Marchbank in it to Geelong's back in 07-11 era. Just need to remember their midfield consisted of Ablett, Bartel, Ling, Selwood, Kelly, Enright and Corey. What does our midfield consist of? Not even close.

I still think we need to keep our first round picks for this year and next at all costs and spend them on mids. Venables has some superstar traits to his game, just needs the right development to put it together. Next year who knows what pick we'll end up with but chances are it will be top 10 and next year's draft is already being spoken about as elite at the top end. There's about 8 players already spoken about going top 10, not all of them are mids so we will get our chance to pick up another high quality mid next year as well.

If we can somehow get JOM without giving up a first rounder that would be great. I'll leave it to Silvagni to work his magic and make it happen but I'm pretty sure he won't allow us to go missing in the first 2 rounds of the next 2 drafts for JOM, Marchbank and Tomlinson.

no way would we get marchbank for a second rounder
 

Blue_Fusion

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no way would we get march bank for a second rounder
Why not? We got Plowman, Lamb, Philips and Sumner for pick #28 last year. Marchbank hasn't shown anymore than what Plowman did and Lachie went at pick#3. Our second and third round picks should be enough for Marchbank and Tomlinson. If not, then we can try and throw Rowe into the mix he'd be a decent fit for them. If they still reject then best we walk away from GWS and use the picks. As I said, our defence isn't screaming out for a FB just yet.
 

RudyBlue

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Everyone is aware that our list lacks talent and depth and it seems most are aware that a 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th round selection at draft time each year just isn't enough. So a quick theory on how to improve our position.

Trade Cas to the Lions for pick 38.
Trade Tuohy and 40 for the Swans 1st (18)
Trade pick 4 and Everitt to GCS for pick 8 and 28
Trade picks 28 and 38 to GWS for pick 17

Trade pick 22 along with next years third for two or three of Marchbank/Tomlinson/Steele/Stewart

Go to the draft with 8, 17, 18, 48, 76
Plausible. I like a scenario where we're not reaming the whole competition at the trade table.

Not entirely sure GC will take Everitt, though Rocket did pick up J. Grant last year, another guy taken high in the draft while he was at the Doggies.
 

Dramoth

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Aren't we getting away from our decision to draft young talent?
I think so.

Only we trade our 1st pick this year is in a swap for say 11 and 18. Then offload one of those picks for JOM - say 11 and next years second rounder.
Then couple pick 18 and second rounder 23 for say Pick 8 (GWS maybe)?

Get Marchbank & Tomlinson. Need to trade next years 1st rounder I would suspect?

We end up in
Marchbank
Tomlinson
Jom
Pick 8
2 x Third Rounders

But lose 1st and 2nd next year.

Not sure how else to get done unless Casboult can offer some leverage.
Cant trade a first and any other round future picks.
 

Dramoth

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There are certain players you simply do not trade and Cripps is one of them. We fought hard to keep him at the club, would be insane to put him up for trade.
GWS comes along and offers us the GWS4 + Ahern and 3 first round picks? for Cripps, our second, the two thirds and whatever we get for Everitt and Casboult.

The question is... would we pull the trigger?
 

Blue_Fusion

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Here's a bit of info re Caleb Marchbank injuries:

Stress fractures in L4 and L5 disks in his back, torn lateral meniscus in his knee before being drafted. This year rolled his ankle and that got re-injured and kept him out for 7 weeks and now shoulder reconstruction. Only 19 and multiple parts of his body have been significantly injured. Not worth risking pick #4/5 guys.
 

ferrisb

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Chris Pelchen, go-to draft guru for the HUN, gave his lowdown on prospective trades this season and had Vickery as a second rounder at best.

The wise one was unaware that Ty is a RFA. Guru my butt.
I'd give up one of our 3rd rounders for him not to give any useless trade opinions this year...
 

Dramoth

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Here's a bit of info re Caleb Marchbank injuries:

Stress fractures in L4 and L5 disks in his back, torn lateral meniscus in his knee before being drafted. This year rolled his ankle and that got re-injured and kept him out for 7 weeks and now shoulder reconstruction. Only 19 and multiple parts of his body have been significantly injured. Not worth risking pick #4/5 guys.
Where did you get that info from?
 
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