Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

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We are building this list with 22 year olds as our first wave in a new challenge.

The players above that with some value are Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer, Tuohy, Casboult, Everitt, Curnow. I think we need another tilt at the draft which means someone may be on the trade table.

Some may think we can do it with the 26 turning 27 year olds who will be turning 30 after our 3 year rebuild is up. Some decent players there but our window will be tiny and will immediately need a clean out if it fails. Those 22 year olds will be 25 and heading into their prime. There will be some 24, 23 and several 21 years olds hitting their straps and our window will be long.

I think this is where we should be aiming unless we happen to arrive ahead of schedule as the Hawks did in 2008.
 

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Its going to take McKay 3 years to get a regular game. Silvagni longer.
I hope not. If they are physically able and our trainers are doing their job, they should be getting games into them, even if they have not quite served a reserves apprenticeship. No substitute for learning in the big stuff. I know we worry about injury but Cripps broke his leg in the VFL so it can happen anywhere. They have to learn the game plan and have to develop instincts for their teammates next move.
 

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I hope not. If they are physically able and our trainers are doing their job, they should be getting games into them, even if they have not quite served a reserves apprenticeship. No substitute for learning in the big stuff. I know we worry about injury but Cripps broke his leg in the VFL so it can happen anywhere. They have to learn the game plan and have to develop instincts for their teammates next move.
Regular game where they make an impact I should have said.

In 3 years time Macca is going to be 21. And I dont expect too much from a 21 year old KPF (remember Harry is 18 and raw, and KPF's take longer is the accepted wisdom - Weitering notwithstanding) even if he is a gun (and we still dont know if he will be).

Silvagni needs three years in the gym alone :)
 

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Pick 30 is worth 600 points. Id rather use those 600 points to push deeper into the first round (covert 22 into 10) than scatter gun selections around the 30's mark.



Thats not the rebuild mate. Were 2 games into turning the list over. Its gonna take three years just to do that.

From there we push upwards. Our list is diabiolical. Unbalanced in age, talent and in areas of the ground.

Its going to take McKay 3 years to get a regular game. Silvagni longer.

In 5 years Paddy Cripps will be 25. Weitering 23. These are the blokes we build a side around.

Patience young padawan, patience.
That is exactly the slow drawl that was part of the what got us in this mess in the first place, and will force us to make some sort of Judd-like trade to bail out because the players will never buy in.
 
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Regular game where they make an impact I should have said.

In 3 years time Macca is going to be 21. And I dont expect too much from a 21 year old KPF (remember Harry is 18 and raw, and KPF's take longer is the accepted wisdom - Weitering notwithstanding) even if he is a gun (and we still dont know if he will be).

Silvagni needs three years in the gym alone :)
Hawks got games into Roughy and Franklin first year and they were bottom aged. There were some ordinary games in there but they steadily improved and went bang in years 2 and 3. Can't be too cautious.
 
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BlueJet

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That is exactly the slow drawl that was part of the what got us in this mess in the first place, and will force us to make some sort of Judd-like trade to bail out because the players will never buy in.
Completely different situation but in that case we went for the headline grabbing deal as opposed to fostering JK's talents..

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Unless there is a standout 1 pick (and the 1 pick is rarely the best player in any draft) I say we split it and look to depth (and roll the dice).
That's what has gotten us into the situation we are trying to now get ourselves out of !!!

We just can't be in the "roll the dice" business anymore unless we want to be cellar dwellers forever.

As for 'rarely the best player', that makes very little sense.

Besides, isn't it up to our recruiting people to identify who is the best player and then draft them ??
 

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That is exactly the slow drawl that was part of the what got us in this mess in the first place, and will force us to make some sort of Judd-like trade to bail out because the players will never buy in.
It was the exact opposite that did it in fact. Relying on magical pick 1 to get us out of the doldrums, and trading out later picks for fringe players elsewhere. Combined with poor recruiting of course.

We have no depth and havent had any for the past decade. Our top end talent has never been our problem, its always been our 'bottom six'.
 

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That's what has gotten us into the situation we are trying to now get ourselves out of !!!
No mate, a combination of poor recruiting, lack of depth and a messiah complex got us into the situation were in now.

We need talent all around the park. And a handful of picks 1's over 5 years isnt going to do it. We tried that already remember?
 

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It was the exact opposite that did it in fact. Relying on magical pick 1 to get us out of the doldrums, and trading out later picks for fringe players elsewhere. Combined with poor recruiting of course.

We have no depth and havent had any for the past decade. Our top end talent has never been our problem, its always been our 'bottom six'.
Totally agree. Would rather 3 picks in the top 20.

For whatever reason, for years our club put utterly no effort into developing players drafted after the first 2 rounds.
 

Malifice

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Hawks got games into Roughy and Franklin first year and they were bottom aged. There were sone ordinary games in there but they steadily improved and went bang in years 2 and 3. Can't be too cautious.
Mate, I would love nothing more. Mckay I can see holding his own in a few years. Dominating as a 21 year old KPF... Im less sure. Id love it as much as anyone though but im keeping the expectations low.

I cant see it with Silvagni (physically). He doesnt have the athleticism or body to hold it with the big boys, and probably wont for a few years at least (of some hard work). He looks about 12 (he'd be the first to admit he needs to spend some time in the Gun shop sculpting those cannons).

 

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I dont think there is any chance Simmo retires after this year. Has two more in him at least IMHO
No so sure about that FBI.
He was getting turned inside out badly against the swans...That has always been his strength (recovery & 2nd efforts). I'm hoping it's an injury he is carrying, otherwise it doesn't look good tbh.

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No mate, a combination of poor recruiting, lack of depth and a messiah complex got us into the situation were in now.

We need talent all around the park. And a handful of picks 1's over 5 years isnt going to do it. We tried that already remember?
Yes, we "rolled the dice" and ended up with poor recruiting and messiahs.

Agree we need talent, but if we get a Top 5 pick, then use it on a goddam gun, not trade away that opportunity for two mid-range options.

Cripps & Weitering are the blueprint of players we need to build up on big numbers, once we have reached our quota (10-12 ??) then we can start getting cute and bring in spare parts players and specific targets.
 

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Totally agree. Would rather 3 picks in the top 20.

For whatever reason, for years our club put utterly no effort into developing players drafted after the first 2 rounds.
We tried to rely on a handful of pick 1's and Chris Judd to carry the side for way too long. All the while people were telling us our bottom six were rubbish.

You cant have 5 or 6 guns carrying 5 or 6 VFL players in the same side who are prone to turnovers or are just placeholders at best. Any passage of play involves several players, and a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Get the ball into the hands of a single 'bottom' player, and bang - turnover + goal.

We need depth and talent all over the park. I want to have the best bottom six in the comp; the top six will sort themselves out via natural selection.
 

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If we are talking about what points picks are worth, we have to consider they are only worth something if a team needs the points for acadamies or father/son picks. Anyone have an idea of how in-demand they will be this year?
 

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Agree we need talent, but if we get a Top 5 pick, then use it on a goddam gun, not trade away that opportunity for two mid-range options.

Cripps & Weitering are the blueprint of players we need to build up on big numbers, once we have reached our quota (10-12 ??) then we can start getting cute and bring in spare parts players and specific targets.
And where was Cripps taken?

Pick 1 is no guarnantee to be the best player in the draft. In fact it almost never is. History doesnt lie. Having two swings in the top ten gives you a better chance of landing an elite/ A grade player than it does going in with pick 1. Every year the top ten turns out 2-3 elite players, 3-5 good ones, and a dud or two (or a player that gets crueled with injuries). If we dont land an 'elite' talent with either pick, we still stand a better chance of landing 2 very good ones.

Dont get me wrong; Weitering is a gun and exactly the player we need. I wouldnt have swapped him for anything last year. If that 'once in a generation' player is there, you keep it.

This year however, it's looking like the standout is a small forward. A better Jarryd Blair. Follwing on from that is mids galore. As long as we can be assured of getting a good player that we have our eye on at the first split pick (say pick 6 and 12, were sure that the bloke we want will be there at 6) we have nothing to lose and everything to gain to ontrading.
 

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Pick 1 is no guarnantee to be the best player in the draft. In fact it almost never is. History doesnt lie. Having two swings in the top ten gives you a better chance of landing an elite/ A grade player than it does going in with pick 1. Every year the top ten turns out 2-3 elite players, 3-5 good ones, and a dud or two (or a player that gets crueled with injuries). If we dont land an 'elite' talent with either pick, we still stand a better chance of landing 2 very good ones.
#1 gives you the best chance of landing the best player in the draft - end of story.

And you can only make that sort of comment sometime down the track, not pre-draft unless you are some sort of psychic, can read tea-leaves or have a crystal ball.

By the way, I'm not against having multiple picks in the Top 10, just don't agree with trading out the nugget we have worked hard to get already. Somehow trade out some other stuff and get another pick or two.
 
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Mate, I would love nothing more. Mckay I can see holding his own in a few years. Dominating as a 21 year old KPF... Im less sure. Id love it as much as anyone though but im keeping the expectations low.

I cant see it with Silvagni (physically). He doesnt have the athleticism or body to hold it with the big boys, and probably wont for a few years at least (of some hard work). He looks about 12 (he'd be the first to admit he needs to spend some time in the Gun shop sculpting those cannons).
I'm not specifically set on Silvagni. Maybe Weitering and Curnow will be our Buddy and Roughy in terms of getting games into them. Maybe Cuningham will be our Lewis in that regard.

They didn't play them all but they played a few of them a lot. It was a big part of a rapid rise as some were well in advance of where they might have been.
Mind you the Hawks hit the draft hard 2 years in a row by trading players out. This gave them enough youth with decent draft picks that they formed a strong young nucleus immediately.
 

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#1 gives you the best chance of landing the best player in the draft - end of story.
If thats the case, why (more often than not) doesnt it? Not just in AFL but in all sports?

If you ran the numbers based on pure statistics, youre a better chance by splitting the pick (as long as you dont **** up both picks of course - therein lies the risk). This recruiting software the club hyped up no doubt is onto this if our recent drafting and trading reflects anything (plus a splash of moneyball with Kerrige and co). Odds are against you that pick 1 will be the best in the draft.

Pick 1 is rarely a hack. There is however an outside chance that someone taken at picks 2-10 could be. Thats where the risk is. But equally pick 1 is rarely the best player. Two bites at the cherry mitigates the risk. Odds are you'll get two very good players.

2012 draft. Do you take Pick 1 (Lachie Whitfield) or picks 5 and 6 (Stinger and Macrae)?

By the way, I'm not against having multiple picks in the Top 10, just don't agree with trading out the nugget we have worked hard to get already. Somehow trade out some other stuff and get another pick or two.
We should have 2 picks in the early twenties (assuming PP). I say we package them up with a player each and send them GWS way as an alternative. They're likely to have 4 first round draft picks so retain two 1st rounders and can use the latter picks for academy points.
 

Malifice

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Mind you the Hawks hit the draft hard 2 years in a row by trading players out. This gave them enough youth with decent draft picks that they formed a strong young nucleus immediately.
Croad for pick 1 (Hodge) was a massive leg up.

The irony that he made it back for the first flag was not lost on me.

Fremantle only happens once sadly.
 

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Pick 1 is rarely a hack. There is however an outside chance that someone taken at picks 2-10 could be. Thats where the risk is. But equally pick 1 is rarely the best player. Two bites at the cherry mitigates the risk.

2012 draft. Do you take Pick 1 (Lachie Whitfield) or picks 5 and 6 (Stinger and Macrae)?
So why do they go at #1 then ??

Also, did you think that Stringer was going to turn out the player he has prior to his drafting ??

This is more crystal ball stuff !!
 
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Croad for pick 1 (Hodge) was a massive leg up.

The irony that he made it back for the first flag was not lost on me.

Fremantle only happens once sadly.
Let's count Cripps as our Hodge, just ahead of the boom draft. Maybe Docherty who was a very fortunate trade for us and is leading that 22 year group.
 

Malifice

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So why do they go at #1 then ??

Also, did you think that Stringer was going to turn out the player he has prior to his drafting ??

This is more crystal ball stuff !!
Im not crystal balling the future, im reviewing the past and trends in drafting.

Pick up 2 six sided dice. Now go onto wikipedia AFL draft page over the past 15 years, and roll those dice (tallying the numbers, and adding 3 to the result to generate a number between 5 and 15) writing down the two players you randomly rolled. Compare them to that years pick 1.

Using pure chance, more often than not you'll come out ahead.
 

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Let's count Cripps as our Hodge, just ahead of the boom draft. Maybe Docherty who was a very fortunate trade for us and is leading that 22 year group.
Those two plus Weitering are the future. Hopefully a few out of (Plowman, Mckay, Curnow, Cunningham, Buckley, Silvagni, Boekhoest, Jacksh) also get added to that list. Thats the crop Im eying off.

We need more depth. Midfield depth in particular.
 
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