Analysis 2016 List Management Discussion

[LordLucifer]

You can't be selective with these things.

If we are talking next year's trade period, Gibbs will be 5 months away from turning 28 and Murphy will be 3 months past turning 29. The almost 2 year age difference is going to be there whether you use the start of the season, the trade period or Passover. That particular point is irrefutable.

The only discussion is who is the better player for us and for how much longer.

How many clubs are going to be interested in a 29yo Murphy as opposed to a yet to turn 28 Gibbs ??

If one of them was to be traded, it would be Gibbs for sure. He has extra longevity in the game (you guys are pointing out the 2-year age difference) plus he should be at his playing peak. Both benefits will make him more attractive to opposition clubs as well as drive the asking price up.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

How many clubs are going to be interested in a 29yo Murphy as opposed to a yet to turn 28 Gibbs ??

If one of them was to be traded, it would be Gibbs for sure. He has extra longevity in the game (you guys are pointing out the 2-year age difference) plus he should be at his playing peak. Both benefits will make him more attractive to opposition clubs as well as drive the asking price up.

That's a different argument. Who we should trade vs who other clubs might want, and how much value you would get at their respective ages.

The argument you just made for Gibbs having the greater longevity is exactly the argument being made as to why we should keep him.

Personally, I think we need the leadership and experience and unless it was an awesome offer I am happy to let players play out their careers and show the young guys what it is to be a career player for the CFC.

 

[Azzurro]

Sure this has been done, but I thought it would be interesting to compare our talent pool across the last few years:

2011 Elimination Final vs Essendon

B: Yarran Henderson Jamison
HB: Joseph Laidler Duigan
C: Simpson Judd Scotland
HF: Garlett Walker Robinson
F: Betts Ohailpin Thornton
Ruck: Warnock Carrazzo Murphy
Int: Gibbs Armfield Ellard
Sub: Davies
Emg: Lucas Bower Tuohy

7/25 still on our list.
11/25 now retired.
7/25 now playing with another team.


2013 Elimination Final vs Richmond

B: Simpson Henderson Jamison
HB: Yarran Tuohy Walker
C: Armfield Gibbs Scotland
HF: Garlett Duigan Robinson
F: Kreuzer Waite Betts
Ruck: Warnock Curnow Murphy
Int: Judd McInnes Bell
Sub: Menzel
Emg: Mclean Casboult Ellard

10/25 still on our list.
7/25 now retired.
8/25 now playing with another team.


2016 Round 1 possible starting 22

B: Buckley Rowe Jamison
HB: Tuohy Docherty Byrne
C: Curnow Murphy Simpson
HF: Wright Gibbs Kerridge
F: Kreuzer Casboult Lamb
Ruck: Phillips Cripps Graham
Int: Thomas Walker Armfield Everitt
Emg: Weitering Tutt Gorringe


So the changes from 2013 to now look something like this:

Judd --> Cripps
Duigan --> Byrne
Henderson --> Rowe
Yarran --> Buckley
Scotland --> Docherty
Robinson --> Graham
Betts --> Wright
Warnock --> Phillips
Garlett --> Lamb
McInnes --> Everitt
Menzel --> Thomas
Bell --> Kerridge
Waite --> Casboult


Some clear losses and some clear wins in that comparison, along with some line-ball outcomes.

Will be a tough year no doubt - our depth is now more unproven than ever before.

 

[1981]

Can't go too young, you end up a basket case like Melbourne.

 

[Magruder]

Can't go too young, you end up a basket case like Melbourne.

Not to mention those players who do make it want to **** off to a "big" team.

 

[LordLucifer]

Personally, I think we need the leadership and experience and unless it was an awesome offer I am happy to let players play out their careers and show the young guys what it is to be a career player for the CFC.

Does Gibbs really show leadership though ?? I'd question that point.

Based on SOS's previous form of trading high into the first round, any of the old brigade who may nett us a pick like that will be seriously considered.

There is no loyalty or sentiment these days.

 

[Matty411]

Can't go too young, you end up a basket case like Melbourne.

 

[AceAndy]

Wow Sheik is suspended. Wonder what he has been up to.

 

[james Dean]

Judd --> Cripps
Duigan --> Byrne
Henderson --> Rowe
Yarran --> Buckley
Scotland --> Docherty
Robinson --> Graham
Betts --> Wright
Warnock --> Phillips
Garlett --> Lamb
McInnes --> Everitt
Menzel --> Thomas
Bell --> Kerridge
Waite --> Casboult

Some clear losses and some clear wins in that comparison, along with some line-ball outcomes.

Will be a tough year no doubt - our depth is now more unproven than ever before.

Just curious which ones you would consider clear wins?

For me Everitt >McIness is the only one I think that is a definite upgrade

 

[mediumsizered]

Just curious which ones you would consider clear wins?

For me Everitt >McIness is the only one I think that is a definite upgrade

I'd have Graham as an upgrade on Robinson & Kerridge an upgrade on Bell.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Wow Sheik is suspended. Wonder what he has been up to.

'Twasnt us

 

[Amers]

Wow Sheik is suspended. Wonder what he has been up to.

Richmond board?

 

[TheCoach16]

Wow Sheik is suspended. Wonder what he has been up to.

I read in the rules that we're not supposed to talk about that stuff... But really, what's that about?

 

[passmark]

Richmond board?

Probably.

They've been defending the indefensible over there.

 

[TheCoach16]

Probably.

They've been defending the indefensible over there.

If you're suspended, does your offending post get deleted? Because I just went to their board (Martin thread) and checked about 15 pages, didn't see anything from Sheik...

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Richmond board?

Nope. Doesn't matter. Accumulative thing not a huge smack. Will expire.

 

[Nori]

I wonder what will happen if Carlton push up and finish just inside or just outside the top 8 in 2016?

In previous years I reckon they would have thought the pain was over and the mind set would have immediately shifted to looking for top up players. With SOS on board I wouldn't mind betting older players that have been in good form during 2016, or highly rated players that have been in bad form will become the new trade currency to improve the club's draft picks, i.e. they will stick to their 3 year plan of recruiting the best available talent.

 

[Matty411]

I wonder what will happen if Carlton push up and finish just inside or just outside the top 8 in 2016?

In previous years I reckon they would have thought the pain was over and the mind set would have immediately shifted to looking for top up players. With SOS on board I wouldn't mind betting older players that have been in good form during 2016, or highly rated players that have been in bad form will become the new trade currency to improve the club's draft picks, i.e. they will stick to their 3 year plan of recruiting the best available talent.

Love the optimism but might be unfairly placed here - even the most optimistic Blues supporter couldn't see us finishing in the 8.

Perhaps 12th/14th at the highest but 15-17th more realistic = another top 3-5 pick.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

I'd have Graham as an upgrade on Robinson & Kerridge an upgrade on Bell.

harsh on Belly after last season. REckon jury still out on that

 

[teknodeejay]

I think Sheik got into a fight with Andrew Bolt... or Waly Aleed... or was it Caroline Wilson...

 

[Azul]

Andrew Bolt barracks for Richmond? Explains a lot...

 

[Nori]

Love the optimism but might be unfairly placed here - even the most optimistic Blues supporter couldn't see us finishing in the 8.

Perhaps 12th/14th at the highest but 15-17th more realistic = another top 3-5 pick.

Yes, I totally agree. It wasn't a prediction. It was very much a hypothetical.

I'm curious to know what will happen if things just click in 2016 and maybe they have a dream run with injuries. Will our very realistic perceptions of where the club is at change and more importantly will the clubs perceptions change.

 

[Blue and Silver]

You would think that SOS would have a plan if we perform better than expected to still keep the rebuild going.

I hardly think he will have locked in a bottom pick. Too much could happen

 

[Alice]

The logic of having a top VFL Club aligned to you - is almost as compelling as taking it over and calling it Carlton VFL....but perhaps ODN is right when he says that maybe it is a question of money...

I wonder how much 'development' money is spent in wholly owned VFL CLubs - like Collingwood for example might contribute each year..for staff and facilities etc..I'd like the VFL coach to be a serious Club position..how many Northern Blues Coaches have made it to higher AFL appointment ?

We are apparently interested in joining the women's league - one would have thought that that would be a VERY costly exercise!

 

[Blue__Balls]

We are apparently interested in joining the women's league - one would have thought that that would be a VERY costly exercise!

Depends on how much the AFL and the State are willing to invest to get it off the ground. They'll want it to work, so there will be incentives for clubs to get on board.

Throw in some hefty sponsorships, especially early while the hype train is still motoring along, and it shouldn't cost a club too much.