List Mgmt. 2016 Potential Draft Picks

[Jonts]

Hayward upside is a fyfe type but more forward imo

The game against eagles in round 6 in U18s when he played close to BOG out of the midfield is the type of thing that will get him drafted in the top 15. Exact same With Bolton. Someone will think he is a midfielder not a forward and he'll go top 30. Same with Scrimshaw going top ten, someone will take the the punt of turning him into a wingman.

 

[ClickBOOM1870]

Yes, yes it is.

Im usually all for quality over quantity, but in this case I think i'd prefer to rookie Reynolds instead of taking Hayward. Especially in the first round.

You could spend that Hayward pick on a quality midfielder who would allow us to release Robbie Gray into the forward lines.

 

[Jimmy Unchained]

Decided to do a little analysis of Twomeys Phantom drafts in the first round. The 2015,2014 and 2013 all look like pretty decent calls, the 2012 is a shocker though.

Here are some interesting stats (Or so I think). I've removed academy bidding and Father sons.

Best Year = 2013 (70% correct) - Got the first 13 correct
Worst Year = 2012 (33% correct) - Still picked top 4 including Toumpas to Melborune
Top 10 hit rate = 81%
10-20 hit rate = 34%
Overall Hit rate = 53.8%

Hit rates per state
VIC = 56% out of 46
NSW = 61% out of 13
QLD = 50% out of 10
WA = 40% out of 5
SA = 25% out of 4

And the last one.

Hit rate in picks 10-20 (Excluding Victorian clubs) = 20% out of 15

This is probably overly cynical but I get the impression that his guy, like many of the respected draft watchers, is an expert when it comes to upcoming talent but ultimately knows shit all about our great club.

He's probably watched us play maybe a handful of times this season. He's looked at our retirements and delistings. He's seen that Jay Schulz has retired and that we cut Butcher, and so draws the logical conclusion that we will be chasing forwards with our first two picks. He's not really sure who or what we need at 30/31 but he's seen that Carlile retired and so suggests some defenders, and of course u cant go wrong with suggesting local talent so he then links us to a couple of fairly average south australians.

Take it with a grain of salt.

Cal Twomey has only made 3 predictions for Port Adelaide since 2012. These were
2012 Pick 7 = Sam Mayes (Predicted Wines to Bulldogs earlier)
2012 Pick 30 = Sam Colquhoun (Clurey was picked, however we still picked up Colquhoun in the PSD)
2013 Pick 21 = Trent Dumont (Had Impey going to North at 30)

To be fair he hasn't had very many bites at the cherry as far as we are concerned. Not too stressed about his selections though as I'm sure a lot of shuffling will be done between the sliders and bolters.

 

[MALTSY]

Decided to do a little analysis of Twomeys Phantom drafts in the first round. The 2015,2014 and 2013 all look like pretty decent calls, the 2012 is a shocker though.

Here are some interesting stats (Or so I think). I've removed academy bidding and Father sons.

Best Year = 2013 (70% correct) - Got the first 13 correct
Worst Year = 2012 (33% correct) - Still picked top 4 including Toumpas to Melborune
Top 10 hit rate = 81%
10-20 hit rate = 34%
Overall Hit rate = 53.8%

Hit rates per state
VIC = 56% out of 46
NSW = 61% out of 13
QLD = 50% out of 10
WA = 40% out of 5
SA = 25% out of 4

And the last one.

Hit rate in picks 10-20 (Excluding Victorian clubs) = 20% out of 15



Cal Twomey has only made 3 predictions for Port Adelaide since 2012. These were
2012 Pick 7 = Sam Mayes (Predicted Wines to Bulldogs earlier)
2012 Pick 30 = Sam Colquhoun (Clurey was picked, however we still picked up Colquhoun in the PSD)
2013 Pick 21 = Trent Dumont (Had Impey going to North at 30)

To be fair he hasn't had very many bites at the cherry as far as we are concerned. Not too stressed about his selections though as I'm sure a lot of shuffling will be done between the sliders and bolters.

Excellent post. Excellent research.

 

[rumoursofwinter]

I like Ben Davis as a late pick if we wanted a 186-187cm marking forward with tricks.

 

[Popielnicki]

Would be a very hard year to do a phantom/mock draft besides top 12 wouldn't take to much notice of phantoms

 

[Macca19]

If these amateur/professional phantom drafters actually went to SA school football, which they don't, then they would have seen Hayward exposed in other roles. From what I have been hearing he won't even get to Adelaide's pick at 13.

Exactly right, Carlton are very much interested with pick 5 and there is a big chance he doesn't get past Gold Coasts pick 10.

 

[PJ Power]

Also listening to Parker tonight, I came away thinking Marshall would be very unlikely with any of our picks. He also played a very dead bat in response to SPP.

He made it sound like mids with forward scope was the order of the day, that foot skills were not the be-all or end-all (Clarke anyone?), and that our first two picks would influence the type of player we get at 30 and 31.

Although never an eloquent or inspiring interviewee (Ogilvy shits on him for presentability), everything Parker said sat well with the themes we've discussed on our draft strategy and needs.

 

[Pt Augusta Power]

We ain't developing Hayward into Fyfe. Will not happen.

 

[Visenfest]

Also listening to Parker tonight, I came away thinking Marshall would be very unlikely with any of our picks. He also played a very dead bat in response to SPP.

He made it sound like mids with forward scope was the order of the day, that foot skills were not the be-all or end-all (Clarke anyone?), and that our first two picks would influence the type of player we get at 30 and 31.

Although never an eloquent or inspiring interviewee (Ogilvy shits on him for presentability), everything Parker said sat well with the themes we've discussed on our draft strategy and needs.

Footskills not important for Parker at this draft? That is concerning.

 

[PJ Power]

Footskills not important for Parker at this draft? That is concerning.

Not that it wasn't important but that there were more important aspects.

I would argue that we have several individuals with supposedly good foot skills on our list, and because of deficits in game plan, structure, team work, decision making, training and coaching, it counts for nought.

 

[Visenfest]

Not that it wasn't important but that there were more important aspects.

I would argue that we have several individuals with supposedly good foot skills on our list, and because of deficits in game plan, structure, team work, decision making, training and coaching, it counts for nought.

Mmm true. I'm just more inclined towards good ball users (provided they're also solid to good decision makers and understand the concept of team).

 

[PJ Power]

Gallucci/Hayward, Witherden, Clarke/Atley/Drew, Poholke covers our midfield needs quite well with a couple of good ball users picked early and then some clearance winners picked later.

 

[Jonts]

I got more
There is lots of midfielders in this draft so you'd presume we'd target them

Not
We're not picking marshall
Still think we'll go him if he is there at 17.
I'd be excited to see a howard/marshall combo.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Im usually all for quality over quantity, but in this case I think i'd prefer to rookie Reynolds instead of taking Hayward. Especially in the first round.

You could spend that Hayward pick on a quality midfielder who would allow us to release Robbie Gray into the forward lines.

Robbie Gray is one of the top few midfielders in the competition, why would want to 'release' him into the forward lines?

 

[Forzaport]

Robbie Gray is one of the top few midfielders in the competition, why would want to 'release' him into the forward lines?

I think it's more about having the freedom to play Gray up forward as needed so he can be a 40 goal midfielder instead of a 25 goal midfielder.

 

[Zakk Wylde]

Also listening to Parker tonight, I came away thinking Marshall would be very unlikely with any of our picks. He also played a very dead bat in response to SPP.

He made it sound like mids with forward scope was the order of the day, that foot skills were not the be-all or end-all (Clarke anyone?), and that our first two picks would influence the type of player we get at 30 and 31.

Although never an eloquent or inspiring interviewee (Ogilvy shits on him for presentability), everything Parker said sat well with the themes we've discussed on our draft strategy and needs.

What I found interesting was that both Parker and Ogilvy seemed to have little understanding on what their clubs list needed.

It's like they have a pure ranking of talent and will draft to that list but balance the the picks as they go.

 

[It Just Is]

I got more
There is lots of midfielders in this draft so you'd presume we'd target them

Not
We're not picking marshall
Still think we'll go him if he is there at 17.
I'd be excited to see a howard/marshall combo.

This is one of the more critic things I have ever read.

What I think you are saying is that we may or may not draft Marshal?

 

[wilbur_15]

What I found interesting was that both Parker and Ogilvy seemed to have little understanding on what their clubs list needed.

It's like they have a pure ranking of talent and will draft to that list but balance the the picks as they go.

Yep, just adding to the impression on how loose he is. Does he truly not know rookies are upgraded outside of the draft now? Mind-boggling. This guy is our list manager!

DBJ debuted in his second year? Follows his picks with interest...

Expecting Perryman to be bid on pre-14 was interesting.

 

[Jimmy Unchained]

"It’s a very even draft I think, you’ve probably heard it ad-nauseum in the last few weeks but its an even group, I don’t think there are a lot of talls in the group, so I think we’re gonna be looking at 4 sort of medium/mid sized players."

In my mind that says no to Marshall, Kerr, Battle, Logue, and Cox

Parker later said that the club had identified the areas of need as the midfield-forward, but particularly the midfield. To me that sounds like Hayward (if available) plus 3 mids.

If thats the case, i'd find a way to be ok with:
14. Hayward
17. Sam Powell-Pepper
30 & 31 between the four of Drew/Clarke/Ryan/Poholke

 

[Malibu#27]

I think we have to all remember that Parker, Ogilvie and pretty much every clubs recruiting staff at this time of year are going to be deliberately vague.

Surely people don't want him to come out and read out our top 50 players in order.

 

[ClickBOOM1870]

Robbie Gray is one of the top few midfielders in the competition, why would want to 'release' him into the forward lines?

I think it's more about having the freedom to play Gray up forward as needed so he can be a 40 goal midfielder instead of a 25 goal midfielder.

Forzaport Exactly!

Robbie's an elite mid but he's also an absolute freak with his ability to create in the forward lines.

And he'll be entering the twilight of his career over the next couple of seasons so we need to look towards reducing our reliance on him in the middle.

 

[Gee Dub]

Hate to be one of those guys but a reliable source told me tonight that we are very very keen on Dylan Clarke. I don't like Clarke at all as I don't think we need ball butchers but he can find the footy.

 

[PJ Power]

Hate to be one of those guys but a reliable source told me tonight that we are very very keen on Dylan Clarke. I don't like Clarke at all as I don't think we need ball butchers but he can find the footy.

This makes me pretty happy.

 

[Wargreymon90]

Robbie Gray is one of the top few midfielders in the competition, why would want to 'release' him into the forward lines?

Thankyou!