List Mgmt. 2016 Trade and Free Agency Targets Part 1

Who do you hope we target?

  • Daniel Rich - Brisbane Lions (Free Agent)

    Votes: 21 7.5%
  • Jaeger O'Meara - Gold Coast Suns (Trade)

    Votes: 112 40.1%
  • Dion Prestia - Gold Coast Suns (Trade)

    Votes: 53 19.0%
  • Tom Lynch - Gold Coast Suns(Trade)

    Votes: 24 8.6%
  • Ollie Wines - Port (Trade)

    Votes: 55 19.7%
  • Other

    Votes: 65 23.3%
  • Peter Wright - Gold Coast Suns (Trade)

    Votes: 23 8.2%
  • Tom Rockliff

    Votes: 15 5.4%

  • Total voters
    279
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gringo2011

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There is a concept in finance called risk adjusted return; really basic, you calibrate the risk + price you are willing to take on against the potential returns.

And you balance that across a portfolio to work towards the result you are after.

Freeman and JOM are like speculative mining stocks, big risks with high potential rewards.

If the price meets the risk adjusted return goals and the potential loss is covered somewhere else then we should go for them (freeman done, JOM a maybe).

A draft pick has a different set of risk adjusted returns, so the list managers will just have to weigh up what the price is at which below JOM is the better bet or a draft pick is a better bet.

Personally I think the risk is too high with JOM unless the price is a pick around 15+

I agree on JOM. We really have to start going back to the draft and finding our own. If we get Stringer or Bontempelli with that first pick we don't need to keep buying up guys who might not play.
 

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I can see both sides of argument with O'Meara.
The question Ameet and Trout continually ask themselves is this:
"Will we be able to win a premiership against GWS if we don't take some high risk, high reward list management decisions"?
I don't think we can compete with the ridiculously talented list up there unless we take some calculated risks in adding elite talent.
IF O'Meara plays footy this year and IF our specialists believe he can get back to a high standard then we would be mad to not look into it.
 

Gresh_Magic

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I can see both sides of argument with O'Meara.
The question Ameet and Trout continually ask themselves is this:
"Will we be able to win a premiership against GWS if we don't take some high risk, high reward list management decisions"?
I don't think we can compete with the ridiculously talented list up there unless we take some calculated risks in adding elite talent.
IF O'Meara plays footy this year and IF our specialists believe he can get back to a high standard then we would be mad to not look into it.
Good luck beating GWS.

They'll be contenders for 10+ years.

Don't really wanna contend whilst they're in their prime.
 
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Stewart66

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There is a concept in finance called risk adjusted return; really basic, you calibrate the risk + price you are willing to take on against the potential returns.

And you balance that across a portfolio to work towards the result you are after.

Freeman and JOM are like speculative mining stocks, big risks with high potential rewards.

If the price meets the risk adjusted return goals and the potential loss is covered somewhere else then we should go for them (freeman done, JOM a maybe).

A draft pick has a different set of risk adjusted returns, so the list managers will just have to weigh up what the price is at which below JOM is the better bet or a draft pick is a better bet.

Personally I think the risk is too high with JOM unless the price is a pick around 15+

Would like to just mention if Omeara nominates StKilda and only the Saints then Gold Coast have to deal
with any pick or lose him for nothing that is the system .
 

VDS66

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You're entitled to that opinion. I thought it was a negative press we got from his snap chat stuff up and was a publicity disaster -at least it was brief due to him getting suspended though.

Gresham looks good but as i said it will be 4 years until it's even possible to decide who wins unless Carlisle doesn't play a game or some other unforeseen thing happens. All I'm doing is sticking up for a perfectly reasonable opinion from a poster who was shouted down because he wasn't being enough of a cheer leader for the clubs decisions. Last time I looked we had 160 years with one cup, that should mean we are fairly sceptical about how good the decision makers at our club are- not a personality cult that shuts down anything that resembles an alternative opinion.
Past does not = future.
 

gringo2011

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I can see both sides of argument with O'Meara.
The question Ameet and Trout continually ask themselves is this:
"Will we be able to win a premiership against GWS if we don't take some high risk, high reward list management decisions"?
I don't think we can compete with the ridiculously talented list up there unless we take some calculated risks in adding elite talent.
IF O'Meara plays footy this year and IF our specialists believe he can get back to a high standard then we would be mad to not look into it.

I see the point but we have lost a second rounder this year for Freeman who looks no where near playing yet, that pick could have nabbed us a Ryan Clarke type for example. He might not be a superstar in the JOM mould but at least he's potentially more likely to play regular footy. If Freeman had worked out already it would make me less risk adverse, there is still talk that he'd cost a first rounder so I think we'd be better using that pick in the draft and finding our own JOM.
 

gringo2011

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Past does not = future.

I get that but I reserve the right to question wether they always make the right decision as a club based on our history. In the modern era we have been very successful but that doesn't mean we are sitting on top of the ladder with 1000000 members and a dynasty in place or just had the trophy cabinet extended. It makes me sick seeing Geelong about to potentially play for another flag while we are still languishing down the bottom of the ladder for another year hoping we can trade our draft picks for guys who haven't made it on the park for multiple years hoping one is going to chuck the crutches away and win us a flag.
 

Gresh_Magic

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I get that but I reserve the right to question wether they always make the right decision as a club based on our history. In the modern era we have been very successful but that doesn't mean we are sitting on top of the ladder with 1000000 members and a dynasty in place or just had the trophy cabinet extended. It makes me sick seeing Geelong about to potentially play for another flag while we are still languishing down the bottom of the ladder for another year hoping we can trade our draft picks for guys who haven't made it on the park for multiple years hoping one is going to chuck the crutches away and win us a flag.
It is what it is unfortunately :(

Cats won't be there when the whips are cracking IMO not enough A grade players. Danger, Selwood, then what?

GWS potentially having a dynstany on the back of hand outs, hurts more.
 
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I see the point but we have lost a second rounder this year for Freeman who looks no where near playing yet, that pick could have nabbed us a Ryan Clarke type for example. He might not be a superstar in the JOM mould but at least he's potentially more likely to play regular footy. If Freeman had worked out already it would make me less risk adverse, there is still talk that he'd cost a first rounder so I think we'd be better using that pick in the draft and finding our own JOM.
I guess good players , like Savage, Newnes ( hopefully McKenzie ) etc are not that hard to come by. We've traded a potential player of that level for a better type in Freeman. ( and no he hasn't played yet ,but drafting is an investment for the future not the following season ).
Risking an early draft pick in the same manner doesn't make sense. Take Gresham for example, he's only shown small glimpses so far, would we trade him for O'Meara ?
 

Joffaboy

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Good luck beating GWS.

They'll be contenders for 10+ years.

Don't really wanna contend whilst they're in their prime.
Well that means we don't contend until 2026.

Look mate, I understand your frustration, as would most Saints, Bulldogs, Melbourne, even Richmond fans.

We wait an eternity to win a flag, and along come the AFL and put their thumb on the scales and completely put the system out of whack.

Not often I agree with Francis Leach, but GWS is a sink hole for AFL funds. It will NEVER EVER be popular in Western Sydney.

If the AFL want proof, look northwards. they gifted Brisbane with three flags in a state that is much kinder to AFL and look at them now.

Having said that, there are two teams in the GF. Recent history would suggest anything can happen on the day.

2008 Hawks stole a flag from a rampant Geelong. 2009 Geelong beat the Saints who were the best H&A team by far all year. 2010 Saints come within a hairs breath of beating a Collingwood team that absolutely had blown away all opposition that year.

We have to have faith. Just say we sneak into a GF against a dominant GWS. We could do a Port 2007, or a Hawks 2008.
 

Gresh_Magic

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Well that means we don't contend until 2026.

Look mate, I understand your frustration, as would most Saints, Bulldogs, Melbourne, even Richmond fans.

We wait an eternity to win a flag, and along come the AFL and put their thumb on the scales and completely put the system out of whack.

Not often I agree with Francis Leach, but GWS is a sink hole for AFL funds. It will NEVER EVER be popular in Western Sydney.

If the AFL want proof, look northwards. they gifted Brisbane with three flags in a state that is much kinder to AFL and look at them now.

Having said that, there are two teams in the GF. Recent history would suggest anything can happen on the day.

2008 Hawks stole a flag from a rampant Geelong. 2009 Geelong beat the Saints who were the best H&A team by far all year. 2010 Saints come within a hairs breath of beating a Collingwood team that absolutely had blown away all opposition that year.

We have to have faith. Just say we sneak into a GF against a dominant GWS. We could do a Port 2007, or a Hawks 2008.
Very true Joff.

It's just frustrating to see a soulless club dominate. They can't even get 10k to their games whilst being top 4 ffs.

But yes we can pinch one & we are on the right track.

:thumbsu:
 

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Luke_sainters

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I guess good players , like Savage, Newnes ( hopefully McKenzie ) etc are not that hard to come by. We've traded a potential player of that level for a better type in Freeman. ( and no he hasn't played yet ,but drafting is an investment for the future not the following season ).
Risking an early draft pick in the same manner doesn't make sense. Take Gresham for example, he's only shown small glimpses so far, would we trade him for O'Meara ?
IMO - we all know the saints have expressed interest in O'Meara.
Given we have Freeman who is a risk but I am backing to get his body right next season, I do not think we should take another gamble on Jaegar.
We'd probably have to give up a good young player and/or maybe a top pick.

I've said this a lot.

Why don't we wait 12 more months until we target a player ie. Rockliff, Fyfe (unlikely but try) through free agency. We don't give anything up and those two players are the types we need going forward.
Additionally, in 2017 I would like to get say a Rockliff via FA, then trade our first pick say pick 10 + our second pick, pick 30 for Josh Kelly.
Obviously for this year unless Gaff wants to come to the Saints, it might not be worth risking going for Jaegar.
 
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I get that but I reserve the right to question wether they always make the right decision as a club based on our history. In the modern era we have been very successful but that doesn't mean we are sitting on top of the ladder with 1000000 members and a dynasty in place or just had the trophy cabinet extended. It makes me sick seeing Geelong about to potentially play for another flag while we are still languishing down the bottom of the ladder for another year hoping we can trade our draft picks for guys who haven't made it on the park for multiple years hoping one is going to chuck the crutches away and win us a flag.
We loaded up on good drafts then proceeded to throw away a heap of picks in trades, that potentially weakened our team by the time we really were ready to challenge.
Brooks, Penny, Guerra, Watts,Birss, Lovett didn't help us in premiership efforts. They were part of the "i want it NOW " mentality.
Not saying i don't like taking a punt with Freeman, but i don't like it if it becomes a habit.
 

VDS66

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I get that but I reserve the right to question wether they always make the right decision as a club based on our history. In the modern era we have been very successful but that doesn't mean we are sitting on top of the ladder with 1000000 members and a dynasty in place or just had the trophy cabinet extended. It makes me sick seeing Geelong about to potentially play for another flag while we are still languishing down the bottom of the ladder for another year hoping we can trade our draft picks for guys who haven't made it on the park for multiple years hoping one is going to chuck the crutches away and win us a flag.

I don't deny anyone the right to keep looking in the rear view mirror instead of the horizon.

Geelong sorted themselves out when Costa came on board. at that stage, they weren't too flash. It took them a few years to get their house in order, and have reaped the results since.

We have lagged over the past 16 years. whilst GT and Butters had the best of intentions, we are still amateur hour. We almost won a flag or 2 despite ourselves.

2004 - 2010 was squandered for various reasons MO. Perhaps a bit more polish off the field and w wouldn't be having this discussion.

When Summer came in, he sat down with Costa (if memory serves me correctly) and picked his brains as to their success.

what we are seeing is a level of professionalism off field like we have never seen before IMO. ot everything is 100% - even Geelong had issues with stevie J.

We are rebuilding and not just on the field. We have employed very good people to run the club. So now we sit and wait for the plans to come to fruition.

We don't get it all correct, but I reckon we will get most of it right. Our golden era is yet to happen IMO, but isn't too far away.

I just prefer to look forward by nature. as for JOM? I'll worry about it if or when it happens.
 

Joffaboy

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I can see both sides of argument with O'Meara.
The question Ameet and Trout continually ask themselves is this:
"Will we be able to win a premiership against GWS if we don't take some high risk, high reward list management decisions"?
I don't think we can compete with the ridiculously talented list up there unless we take some calculated risks in adding elite talent.
IF O'Meara plays footy this year and IF our specialists believe he can get back to a high standard then we would be mad to not look into it.
Surprisingly enough this gives me a bit of faith. The powers that be at the club aren't idiots and understand the reality of the situation, and I can see the logic in what you post above MG.

OK rose coloured glasses time. The list we are putting together have a very solid base of consistant AFL performers. The kids, while not being superstars will have our bottom six players stronger than probably at any time since the VFL became the AFL.

We need top end talent to compliment this very solid base. We have started with Billings, McCartin, maybe Gresh. We have the likes of Matthews saying the best recruit from GWS is Bruce, we have Freeman who is a risk but in line with the chance we need to take. If there is any chance we get JoM fit, that would make possibly six top enders in talent.

Add to that Steven, Armo, Seb Ross, Carlisle, and hopefully (I have very high hopes) Goddard, and we will have 10 + high end talent to go with an extremely even and solid bottom 8.

Yes it is very optimistic, but what else can we do when the AFL has created this absolutely skewed environment and this soulless plastic club so McLachlan and Fitzpatrick and the other gravy trainers can get their huge bonuses and keep their huge snouts in the trough.
 

Bleeds_RWB

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Has anyone ever thought that jaeger is doing as little as possible to keep his price down to join saints!!??? I mean if we have in fact spoken to him we could have slipped a minimum kpi for his rehab. Boom trade cheaply then becomes a star! Illuminati is real Hahahaha lighter side of life!!
 

VDS66

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Like it or not, if we want to win a premiership we have to contend with them.
Absolutely 100%.

Anything can happen.

How many times do we hear about dynasties only to see them fizzle out?

Essendon 2000, Collingwood 2010 to name a couple. even Gellong missed out a few years when they were dominant.

Look at us in 1997... odds on until we lost both rucks and Smith etc. Things can turn quickly.
 

Joffaboy

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Has anyone ever thought that jaeger is doing as little as possible to keep his price down to join saints!!??? I mean if we have in fact spoken to him we could have slipped a minimum kpi for his rehab. Boom trade cheaply then becomes a star! Illuminati is real Hahahaha lighter side of life!!
I can guarantee you and straight from the horses mouth in February, he had been offered 900k a year for three years. The frontrunners at that time were North and Carlton.

Now this was before the setbacks in his rehab. I would very much doubt he would command such figures now. Many clubs would be scared off (as have many on here including me with Rors having some knowledge on these type of injuries).

I don't really care about the money, but because of the risk, it needs to be a low dp not our first rounder in my opinion.
 

Joffaboy

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Got it wrong sorry. It wasn't Matthews who said that about Bruce

Sheedy was on in KB's hungry for sport today and briefly touched upon GWS. According to Sheedy, Bruce is the best player they have let go so far. Went to suggest, that on current form Bruce would get a spot before Patton.

From Freebloke on the Saints in the media thread.
 
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I have supported the Saints for 46 years godammit... so everyone pull their heads in!

speaking of which, I actually tried to do that yesterday.

You can technically push your head down, or attempt to contract your spine in effect sucking your head down. Both were unsuccessful as you can imagine.

Unfortunately, the best I could was stick it out the car window whilst driving. Some truckie yelled out "Oi pull yer effing head in" and I did.

At first first I thought the myth was busted, but technically it is plausible.
image.jpg


"Young Gladstone always took things too literally, but his commitment to the BigFooty Saints page could never be questioned!"
 

Hayes4PM

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Give it another 3 or so years and a lot of guys on GWS' list will be Free Agency eligible (assuming the rules aren't changed) and I think that will be a big factor. Whether or not they can grab a flag before then will be interesting.
 
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