List Mgmt. 2016 Trade and Free Agency Targets Part 2

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.

Winmar2Lockett

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 14, 2008
6,903
22,360
The Bear Cave
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls
All good and your opinion is valid but will they become top end A grade talent....., not sure as I reckon they will all be GOFs.
Just a FYI that may be of interest. At the members forum back in August 2013, the Pelican did a presentation on list management and included a part on player ratings (not the rubbish and misleading fantasy type ratings either).

The most interesting part was how every club in the league values players on a sliding scale (I can't remember the exact description) from Elite to Developing.

The Geelong side of 2009 had 13 players who were considered in that top category. This was the most elite players every assembled in a side since 2000 when they started rating players using this system. From memory we had 11 elite players, which in any other year would have been the highest and guaranteed us the flag.

The theory of having around 10 elite players was (and I assume still is) the basis for our rebuilding plan.

So if the Cats had 13 elites that means that they had 9 others that were rated as B-graders, young & promising, role players or old & on the way out.

If our bottom 4 includes the likes of Sinclair and DMac then we'll be doing all right. Both have the capacity to become B-graders at the minimum IMO.

I'll see if I can find my post from after the members forum & re-post it.
 

Winmar2Lockett

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 14, 2008
6,903
22,360
The Bear Cave
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls
Here was my report re: Pelchen from August 2013 - it makes for some interesting reading in hindsight.

++++++++++++++++++

The night started with Shane Wakelin (filling in for Nettles who was in NZ signing off on an extension of the Wellington deal) who amongst other things confirmed;

*NZ deal to stay at 1 game per year for the next 3 years. Possibility to extend to 1 pre season & another H&A game.
*Saints keen to sign alignment with Sandy for another 2 years.

*Saints stand alone team playing out of Moorabbin from 2016.
*Moorabbin #1 Community Development Priority for the AFL

Wakes introduced Chris who ran through a brief career history & background of how he came to be at St Kilda. His heartfelt insight into his relationship with Yabby showed to all present that this man is not only the right man for the job of building a St Kilda Premiership side but also that it is a very personal quest for him. Yabby asked Chris to "look after my Saints" during their last time together before the great man passed...

A summary of where our list sits against other clubs (a bit depressing) followed by an analysis of drafting/retention rates (morbid depression) set the picture of where we are & where we need to go.

Chris compared our current situation to where Hawthorn was in 2004 (& he intimately knows both situations).

The list analysis explained how clubs rate players both at their club & at all other clubs using Champion Data & some internal analysis. Chris spoke of the top 12 players at a club being the key to finals success & ran through how premiership teams from 1999-2012 rated (Bris of 2002 & Geel of 2009 were rated the best sides of that timeframe & had 15 Category 1 (elite across the whole competition) or Category 2 (very high consistent performers) player in their sides. He did say that St Kilda was exceptionally unlucky to cop the equal best side of the last 15 years when we had our highest rated side (12 Cat.1 or 2 players).

There was a strategic list plan, including trade targets (with names XXXX'ed out unfortunately) but a goal of having 4 top 20 picks during the next 3 drafts (so a need to trade in another 1st round pick at some stage- possibly this year). A few trade/draft points summarised;

*CP categorically stated that pick 3 would not be traded.

*GWS playing funny buggers with pick 1- attempting to destablise clubs.

* Talking with 5 key defenders (1 of who contracted- which I assume is Frawley) Age ranging from 19-27.

*Supporters should prepare for unpopular decisions at trade time.

*Dal's contract trigger point- games played- has been reached. Will remain on FA list until his new contract has been submitted to the AFL (which will be after the FA period).

*2014=tough... 2015=sneak up on a few sides, positive signs...2016=clear positive momentum...2017= finals....2018-22= challenging for flag

*Said that should Saad's B sample be positive he will be unable to attend the club in any way shape or form other than to provide anti drug education sessions or receive drug counselling. He can't be employed as a groundsman, in marketing or anything. They are very concerned about Saady's welfare & how the club can support him. They are awaiting direction from the AFL as to whether he can remain on the list.

There was heaps more (Chris spoke for 2 hours) so I'll add some more as it comes back to me.

I left feeling more positive & excited about our future than at any time I can remember. As members we need to hang tough & see this period out..... & get as many supporters to financially support the club as possible.

I said to a mate at the time that I reckon Pelchen could be our best recruit ever... after last night I am absolutely convinced of that. Good times are ahead...
 

Log in to remove this ad.

DGontheQT

Club Legend
Oct 25, 2015
1,133
2,504
AFL Club
St Kilda
Just a FYI that may be of interest. At the members forum back in August 2013, the Pelican did a presentation on list management and included a part on player ratings (not the rubbish and misleading fantasy type ratings either).

The most interesting part was how every club in the league values players on a sliding scale (I can't remember the exact description) from Elite to Developing.

The Geelong side of 2009 had 13 players who were considered in that top category. This was the most elite players every assembled in a side since 2000 when they started rating players using this system. From memory we had 11 elite players, which in any other year would have been the highest and guaranteed us the flag.

The theory of having around 10 elite players was (and I assume still is) the basis for our rebuilding plan.

So if the Cats had 13 elites that means that they had 9 others that were rated as B-graders, young & promising, role players or old & on the way out.

If our bottom 4 includes the likes of Sinclair and DMac then we'll be doing all right. Both have the capacity to become B-graders at the minimum IMO.

I'll see if I can find my post from after the members forum & re-post it.
Very Interesting , get the feeling that GWS could set the new benchmark and squeeze past 13 in a year or so.
 

plugger66

Hall of Famer
Jan 10, 2011
30,032
49,833
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Ormond AFC
As people maybe aware I was all for looking at trading Longer because I don't see the point in having a low first rounder in the seconds. I have probably changed my mind now because I cant see him being any hope of being a low first rounder and more importantly I doubt they would sign him and get rid of him 3 months later. My only worry is how does Longer get better trade value. I am just about certain we cant and wont go with 2 rucks so he only plays with injury to Hickey or poor form to Hickey. Both hardly happened this year. I'm glad it didn't happen last year but I think it shows you need to take a punt on trading before the value drops. The reason I'm glad it didn't happen last year is Hickey would have been the one that would have gone.
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
8,758
18,942
AFL Club
St Kilda
As people maybe aware I was all for looking at trading Longer because I don't see the point in having a low first rounder in the seconds. I have probably changed my mind now because I cant see him being any hope of being a low first rounder and more importantly I doubt they would sign him and get rid of him 3 months later. My only worry is how does Longer get better trade value. I am just about certain we cant and wont go with 2 rucks so he only plays with injury to Hickey or poor form to Hickey. Both hardly happened this year. I'm glad it didn't happen last year but I think it shows you need to take a punt on trading before the value drops. The reason I'm glad it didn't happen last year is Hickey would have been the one that would have gone.
What happens if bruce gets injured?
 

Diehard Saint

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 17, 2016
12,957
43,353
Melbourne
AFL Club
St Kilda
Here was my report re: Pelchen from August 2013 - it makes for some interesting reading in hindsight.

++++++++++++++++++

The night started with Shane Wakelin (filling in for Nettles who was in NZ signing off on an extension of the Wellington deal) who amongst other things confirmed;

*NZ deal to stay at 1 game per year for the next 3 years. Possibility to extend to 1 pre season & another H&A game.
*Saints keen to sign alignment with Sandy for another 2 years.

*Saints stand alone team playing out of Moorabbin from 2016.
*Moorabbin #1 Community Development Priority for the AFL

Wakes introduced Chris who ran through a brief career history & background of how he came to be at St Kilda. His heartfelt insight into his relationship with Yabby showed to all present that this man is not only the right man for the job of building a St Kilda Premiership side but also that it is a very personal quest for him. Yabby asked Chris to "look after my Saints" during their last time together before the great man passed...

A summary of where our list sits against other clubs (a bit depressing) followed by an analysis of drafting/retention rates (morbid depression) set the picture of where we are & where we need to go.

Chris compared our current situation to where Hawthorn was in 2004 (& he intimately knows both situations).

The list analysis explained how clubs rate players both at their club & at all other clubs using Champion Data & some internal analysis. Chris spoke of the top 12 players at a club being the key to finals success & ran through how premiership teams from 1999-2012 rated (Bris of 2002 & Geel of 2009 were rated the best sides of that timeframe & had 15 Category 1 (elite across the whole competition) or Category 2 (very high consistent performers) player in their sides. He did say that St Kilda was exceptionally unlucky to cop the equal best side of the last 15 years when we had our highest rated side (12 Cat.1 or 2 players).

There was a strategic list plan, including trade targets (with names XXXX'ed out unfortunately) but a goal of having 4 top 20 picks during the next 3 drafts (so a need to trade in another 1st round pick at some stage- possibly this year). A few trade/draft points summarised;

*CP categorically stated that pick 3 would not be traded.

*GWS playing funny buggers with pick 1- attempting to destablise clubs.

* Talking with 5 key defenders (1 of who contracted- which I assume is Frawley) Age ranging from 19-27.

*Supporters should prepare for unpopular decisions at trade time.

*Dal's contract trigger point- games played- has been reached. Will remain on FA list until his new contract has been submitted to the AFL (which will be after the FA period).

*2014=tough... 2015=sneak up on a few sides, positive signs...2016=clear positive momentum...2017= finals....2018-22= challenging for flag

*Said that should Saad's B sample be positive he will be unable to attend the club in any way shape or form other than to provide anti drug education sessions or receive drug counselling. He can't be employed as a groundsman, in marketing or anything. They are very concerned about Saady's welfare & how the club can support him. They are awaiting direction from the AFL as to whether he can remain on the list.

There was heaps more (Chris spoke for 2 hours) so I'll add some more as it comes back to me.

I left feeling more positive & excited about our future than at any time I can remember. As members we need to hang tough & see this period out..... & get as many supporters to financially support the club as possible.

I said to a mate at the time that I reckon Pelchen could be our best recruit ever... after last night I am absolutely convinced of that. Good times are ahead...
Well he was correct up till 2016... so let's hope he's on the money for the next few years.
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
8,758
18,942
AFL Club
St Kilda
He wont play. What do you mean? Doesn't mean a ruckman plays. Means Roo goes forward or we just have Membery and McCartin.
We are able to only play 1 ruckman because bruce fills in.
Hickey and Longer can't ruck a full game by themselves.

So what happens if bruce gets injured.
Furthermore, what happens when roo retires?

We need a ruck/fwd.
Neither hick or longer are that.
 

plugger66

Hall of Famer
Jan 10, 2011
30,032
49,833
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Ormond AFC
We are able to only play 1 ruckman because bruce fills in.
Hickey and Longer can't ruck a full game by themselves.

So what happens if bruce gets injured

No idea to be honest. Maybe Carlisle or Goddard fill in but backs rucking isnt a great idea. What I do know though is you don't play a poor forward just to fill in for 5 minutes a quarter. Id put McCartin, Roo or anyone else rather than play a second ruck for that little time.
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
8,758
18,942
AFL Club
St Kilda
We are able to only play 1 ruckman because bruce fills in.
Hickey and Longer can't ruck a full game by themselves.

So what happens if bruce gets injured.
Furthermore, what happens when roo retires?

We need a ruck/fwd.
Neither hick or longer are that.
Or perhaps more accurately, we need another fwd who can ruck a bit
 

plugger66

Hall of Famer
Jan 10, 2011
30,032
49,833
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Ormond AFC
Or perhaps more accurately, we need another fwd who can ruck a bit

Yes that would be better but how do you fit McCartin, Bruce and Membery in the forward line with this type of player considering Roo said on radio the other day he was basically forced to move as the forward line would be to top heavy.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
8,758
18,942
AFL Club
St Kilda
No idea to be honest. Maybe Carlisle or Goddard fill in but backs rucking isnt a great idea. What I do know though is you don't play a poor forward just to fill in for 5 minutes a quarter. Id put McCartin, Roo or anyone else rather than play a second ruck for that little time.
I'm not saying i have the answers either- but we have painted ourselves into a corner i think by investing heavily in 2 ruckmen in the pure sense of the word.

We can eliviate this imbalance by either: cashing in one of them for a decent pick and/or mid (like we did with mcevoy).

Or we can keep them both, 1 plays in the 2's everyweek and we develop/draft a fwd to fill in ruck like bruce does decently.

I say it has to be a forward because say we're playing gold coast or essendon- do you really want goddard manning daniher or lynch for 5 or more minutes every quarter?
 

plugger66

Hall of Famer
Jan 10, 2011
30,032
49,833
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Ormond AFC
I'm not saying i have the answers either- but we have painted ourselves into a corner i think by investing heavily in 2 ruckmen in the pure sense of the word.

We can eliviate this imbalance by either: cashing in one of them for a decent pick and/or mid (like we did with mcevoy).

Or we can keep them both, 1 plays in the 2's everyweek and we develop/draft a fwd to fill in ruck like bruce does decently.

I say it has to be a forward because say we're playing gold coast or essendon- do you really want goddard manning daniher or lynch for 5 or more minutes every quarter?

No I don't but I also don't want 4 taller type players in the forward line. Its to unbalanced even to the extent Roo was moved out of there. As for cashing in one I was all for that if it got a decent pick but I doubt that happens now. If we get a forward ruck it means we have to move one of our forwards elsewhere.
 

aussierulesrules

Hall of Famer
Jan 7, 2011
30,819
58,900
Heaven. I mean Victoria.
AFL Club
St Kilda
Josh Bruce I think it was said in an interview earlier in the year that Carlisle was the one pencilled in for back-up ruck duties and that makes a lot of sense to me, because A: He's infinitely better at rucking than Bruce is and B: Chances are decent that whoever he'll be playing on down back will also be doing the back-up rucking for his team, so when he goes into the ruck Carlisle can follow him in there and essentially play on him whether he's playing forward or ruck.

We can eliviate this imbalance by either: cashing in one of them for a decent pick
Don't say that, or half the board will cancel their account!
 

Moorabbin Ghost

Club Legend
Apr 28, 2015
2,850
26,663
Australia
AFL Club
St Kilda
Generally agree, but obviously if someone was to offer a first rounder for Longer this year, we'd have to take it. He's stagnated this year because he wasn't getting a game, and it's impossible to see how both of them get out on the park together. One more year of him in the 2s could make it hard to get anything for him.
Longer has stagnated because he wasn't getting a game?
Or maybe the real reason is that Bill has had a shoulder reco which is always a really tough injury for rucks, a hand injury and then a severe concussion with associated serious side affects all in the last 12 months.
 

Winmar2Lockett

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 14, 2008
6,903
22,360
The Bear Cave
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls
Maybe we should get in an assistant coach that can teach Billy, Tom & Lew how to play a true ruck/forward role?

I mean we have defensive coaches like Spud to help our the young KPD, Sammy to help the forwards & Adam S for the pure ruck role.

How about getting someone who played that role to perfection... a Brad Ottens type.

There's no reason why all of our ruckmen can't develop at least a basic forward game... it gives us fantastic flexibility and the ability to play 2 rucks (especially when Roo has retired). Teach them how to work beside Paddy & co, where to lead, etc. I know they've all spent some time there at Sandy with little success but VFL is a different game, played in vastly different conditions.

Taken Carlisle away from a KPD post to ruck doesn't make much sense to me. What if he's giving Jeremy Cameron a bath and Cameron gets going while JC is relieving in the ruck?
 

Winmar2Lockett

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 14, 2008
6,903
22,360
The Bear Cave
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Chicago Bulls
Longer has stagnated because he wasn't getting a game?
Or maybe the real reason is that Bill has had a shoulder reco which is always a really tough injury for rucks, a hand injury and then a severe concussion with associated serious side affects all in the last 12 months.
C'mon Ghost, don't throw facts into the mix!

Wait for the retort regarding Billy's stats last weekend though.
 

bird_man

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 14, 2012
27,813
61,606
The River Murray
AFL Club
St Kilda
I think considering we already have Paddy, Brice and Membrey showing very good signs, we are going to have to put up with playing one ruckman. I just can't see how we fit a forward ruck in there.

Maybe when Goddard comes back he can play a bit of a swing man role of ruck/forward/back?

In saying that, I still don't think we trade either ruck out, unless we get a god father deal which frankly won't happen this year. Let's just be patient.
 

plugger66

Hall of Famer
Jan 10, 2011
30,032
49,833
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Ormond AFC
Longer has stagnated because he wasn't getting a game?
Or maybe the real reason is that Bill has had a shoulder reco which is always a really tough injury for rucks, a hand injury and then a severe concussion with associated serious side affects all in the last 12 months.

So how does he play round one next season and yes he has had injuries but I'm guessing he and the club expected more even with the injuries.
 

Curunir

Premium Gold
Jun 25, 2013
1,753
2,414
AFL Club
St Kilda
People are throwing up Longer's name because out of everyone on our list, he is one we can look at trading due to our depth in that field. Hickey has been immense this season and I'll be surprised if Longer ever reaches that level. You have to give up something to get something good, as we saw with Goddard, McEvoy and Dal Santo. Hickey, Pierce and Holmes is pretty good depth. Personally I wouldn't trade Longer but you'd have to consider it if someone came with a good offer.
 

plugger66

Hall of Famer
Jan 10, 2011
30,032
49,833
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Ormond AFC
Maybe we should get in an assistant coach that can teach Billy, Tom & Lew how to play a true ruck/forward role?

I mean we have defensive coaches like Spud to help our the young KPD, Sammy to help the forwards & Adam S for the pure ruck role.

How about getting someone who played that role to perfection... a Brad Ottens type.

There's no reason why all of our ruckmen can't develop at least a basic forward game... it gives us fantastic flexibility and the ability to play 2 rucks (especially when Roo has retired). Teach them how to work beside Paddy & co, where to lead, etc. I know they've all spent some time there at Sandy with little success but VFL is a different game, played in vastly different conditions.

Taken Carlisle away from a KPD post to ruck doesn't make much sense to me. What if he's giving Jeremy Cameron a bath and Cameron gets going while JC is relieving in the ruck?

Even if they learn which I would be sure the club have been trying to do how does another tall play in the forward line?
 

bird_man

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 14, 2012
27,813
61,606
The River Murray
AFL Club
St Kilda
Considering all of Gold Coast's injury issues maybe they'd be interested in Gilbert? I know everyone on here hates the idea of trading any players who are currently getting a game but consider where Gilbert plays; wing or halfback usually. Next year in the mix for our back 6 we probably have; Carlisle, Dempster, Roberton, Geary, Webster, Savage, McKenzie, Goddard, White, Rice, Coughlan, Lee, Delaney and Payne. I'm assuming Fisher will retire in this scenario.

Payne, Rice and Coughlan don't look like getting regular gigs yet and haven't debuted. Brandon White has been very close to debuting and by all accounts is pretty highly rated at the club. I'd expect him to be somewhat like DMac this year; 6-8 games depending on injuries etc. Goddard most likely won't be in contention for playing any football until the second half of the year, hard to tell at this stage but achilles injuries can be real pricks. That leaves Carlisle, Dempster, Roberton, Geary, Webster, Savage and McKenzie as the candidates for our regular back 6. Lee, Delaney and White will most likely be depth for various reason; Lee obviously not rated overly highly at the club with question marks over tackling/pressure maybe, Delaney just an average player really with good defence but not great kicking or speed/athleticism and White will still be building and learning so will be back in the cue. We will have 4 players as depth without counting Gilbert.

I think Gilbert is one we can afford to trade in terms of our back 6 and is one the Gold Coast may be interested in; he's a mature player without being old, he has some speed and can shut a player down, he's from up north and lived on the Gold Coast as a kid so would adjust easily. The fact Gold Coast have so many picks this year means they can really afford to trade in a good mature aged player in the wake of injuries and still have a great crack at the draft. I think it could be a win-win like the McEvoy trade. No doubt Gilbo is a great clubman but McEvoy was pretty highly rated too, we would easily adjust.
Would trade Gilbert in a heart beat if I thought we'd ever get something good for him.

Can't see that happening though so I think he's worth more on our list.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Remove this Banner Ad

Remove this Banner Ad