2016 trade hypotheticals

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Marc_Remillard

Angel of the Abyss
Joined
Jan 4, 2015
Posts
5,808
Likes
6,097
AFL Club
Melbourne
Huh. Last I heard Vardy was probably going to Melbourne.
Sounds like crap, 4 games in three years, the most he's played in a season is 10. All he would do is take up a spot on our list, we have 3 young players being developed for that role, absolute liability.

I know you won't answer but what's your source?
 

Ants

Club Legend
Joined
Sep 27, 2005
Posts
2,965
Likes
637
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Essendon
imagine he would be.
not sure why GWS would be looking, doesnt fill a need up there.
Essendon seems most likely, if he were to move, as he would be an upgrade on McKernan IMO.
Yeah, but McKernan isn't being played this year, and next we'll have Belly back - who may also not get a game depending on our structure. Would Vardy really want to come to us to sit behind both Leuy and Belly? I mean, there is every chance those guys both break down with injury, but would he want to bet on that?
 

Ants

Club Legend
Joined
Sep 27, 2005
Posts
2,965
Likes
637
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Essendon
That's a pretty good explanation.

The Suns do pretty well, but the Bombers get away with way too much. The Suns would be very one-sided to let a rival club (who could definitely peak alongside each other in a few years) strengthen themselves like that. Throw in your 2nd rounder and you have a pretty even deal.
Sorry, but this is ridiculous. Pick #1 is 3000 points. #4 and #8 are worth a combined 3,585 points. Yes, Essendon win but GCS have a big advantage out of the deal due to the academy players.

Adding our second rounder, worth 948 points into the deal makes Essendon big losers. There is no way we'll do that. We may add our third rounder (483 points), but no way we'll add in pick #19.

You also didn't reply to the below post, explaining why GCS can't benefit (with their current selections) from the even draft. So I assume you're ok with the explanation.
It doesn't apply to anyone who is going to lose those top 10 picks on academy players.

If Bowes was lower rated, or if Brisbane wasn't going to finish at best 2nd last, then you would have a point. But there is no way Brisbane isn't going to bid on a Queensland player. Which means GCS won't have the opportunity to use those picks in the even draft as they'll have been used to pay for Bowes. Which negates the value in them.

You seem to be saying "you both win, but EFC win by more. So chuck in your pick #19 so you don't win anymore and only GCS win".
I don't think the Lions will bid on him. They need outside mids, Bowes is inside. Teams don't sacrifice their future bidding on players they don't need in an attempt to make their rival slightly weaker should they match the bid. ......
Brisbane's huge issue is player retention. I can't see them not bidding on a Queenslander who is worth the pick they might get him for. Queenslanders would be like gold for them. And hell, by the time he's come on Rockliff will be on decline anyway.
 

grouse mate

Premiership Player
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
Posts
3,834
Likes
3,398
Location
On a bike
AFL Club
GWS
Whatever way these Esesndon supporters want to spin it, pick 1 is not as valuable this year as it was last year, and this is the exact reason why you guys would desperately prefer to have 2 top 10 picks over pick 1.
 
Joined
May 15, 2013
Posts
13,778
Likes
16,721
Location
Geelong
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Moderator #2,036
Yeah, but McKernan isn't being played this year, and next we'll have Belly back - who may also not get a game depending on our structure. Would Vardy really want to come to us to sit behind both Leuy and Belly? I mean, there is every chance those guys both break down with injury, but would he want to bet on that?
could also look at it this way.
would you rather McKernan or Vardy, if Belly and Leuy break down?
i know who i would rather, based on talent
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Turbocat

Premium Platinum
Joined
Dec 10, 2003
Posts
35,940
Likes
31,502
Location
Newtown
AFL Club
Geelong
GM.... any good list management team always looks at its possibles.. whether it happens or not..Lobb instance is from WA..been speculated that Freo will come at him. His form means he is worth more than the original estimate for a new contract when due ..its not unreasonable that they attempt to have redundancies.
 

YEMOC NAYR

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Jun 22, 2015
Posts
6,079
Likes
6,313
Location
Where the magic happens
AFL Club
Essendon
Whatever way these Esesndon supporters want to spin it, pick 1 is not as valuable this year as it was last year, and this is the exact reason why you guys would desperately prefer to have 2 top 10 picks over pick 1.
From my POV, the reason I want 2 top 10 selections absolutely has to do with that. But it's also the fact that we aren't the worst side in the comp. We don't need pick 1 to flaunt to the competition/fans as a beacon of hope. I think everything unanimously knows we aren't the worst side.

We just want more talent. Last year worked out really well for us, having 2 top 10 selections. We haven't had good selections like this in forever. We want a real influx of young talent into the club, because we're rebuilding. Especially with the draft sanctions we had, we just need more good kids to cover that- although we drafted well those seasons, we still lost players to be able to draft them because our selections came from picks from other clubs.

It works well with GCS because it means they gain access to a player before their likely bid. It would be like GWS last season, getting access to a player before Hopper/Kennedy. (very similar cos hopper was rated top 3, some had him as the best). Both GWS players got bid on before GWS next selection. Infact, every single academy player got bid on before their academy clubs next live selection (keys, hipwood, kennedy, hopper, mills). This proves clubs KNOW that these players will get their bids matched, which is forced academy clubs to pay somewhat fair value for these players, because they are just too good to be passed by.

The big picture in the end is that, because of the way the academy bidding works, GCS could use second rounders to pay for a kid that is rated as one of the best players in the draft. Having pick 1 gives GCS that freedom. No pick 1 opens up the opportunity for clubs to bid, which if last year is to go by, they will get bid on before their selection forcing them to use it.

I mean.. if bowes didn't get bid on before GCS pick, then I guarantee GCS wouldn't take bowes with that selection.. they'd wait for the bid to get him for the cheapest they can!
 
Last edited:

Ants

Club Legend
Joined
Sep 27, 2005
Posts
2,965
Likes
637
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Essendon
Whatever way these Esesndon supporters want to spin it, pick 1 is not as valuable this year as it was last year, and this is the exact reason why you guys would desperately prefer to have 2 top 10 picks over pick 1.
Well duh! We're not hiding that this is advantageous for us. But because of the unique situation with the academy players, it can also be advantageous for the Suns. Unique circumstances mean this could be a big win win for both clubs.

Plus what Yemoc Nayr said.
 

grouse mate

Premiership Player
Joined
Jan 12, 2014
Posts
3,834
Likes
3,398
Location
On a bike
AFL Club
GWS
From my POV, the reason I want 2 top 10 selections absolutely has to do with that. But it's also the fact that we aren't the worst side in the comp. We don't need pick 1 to flaunt to the competition/fans as a beacon of hope. I think everything unanimously knows we aren't the worst side.

We just want more talent. Last year worked out really well for us, having 2 top 10 selections. We haven't had good selections like this in forever. We want a real influx of young talent into the club, because we're rebuilding. Especially with the draft sanctions we had, we just need more good kids to cover that- although we drafted well those seasons, we still lost players to be able to draft them because our selections came from picks from other clubs.

It works well with GCS because it means they gain access to a player before their likely bid. It would be like GWS last season, getting access to a player before Hopper/Kennedy. (very similar cos hopper was rated top 3, some had him as the best). Both GWS players got bid on before GWS next selection. Infact, every single academy player got bid on before their academy clubs next live selection (keys, hipwood, kennedy, hopper, mills). This proves clubs KNOW that these players will get their bids matched, which is forced academy clubs to pay somewhat fair value for these players, because they are just too good to be passed by.

The big picture in the end is that, because of the way the academy bidding works, GCS could use second rounders to pay for a kid that is rated as one of the best players in the draft. Having pick 1 gives GCS that freedom. No pick 1 opens up the opportunity for clubs to bid, which if last year is to go by, they will get bid on before their selection forcing them to use it.

I mean.. if bowes didn't get bid on before GCS pick, then I guarantee GCS wouldn't take bowes with that selection.. they'd wait for the bid to get him for the cheapest they can!

Essendon had 2 picks before Hopper and didnt bid with either.
 

Accepted 04

Club Legend
Joined
Dec 10, 2007
Posts
1,007
Likes
684
Location
At The Guns Show
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
76ers AC Milan Storm
Lobb isn't going anywhere I don't think.
Stewart, Steele, Barrett, Marchbank and the like are the type of players that could be lured out I think.
I would take Stewart off their hands for nxt years 3rd Rounder


Sent from my iPhone
 

YEMOC NAYR

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Jun 22, 2015
Posts
6,079
Likes
6,313
Location
Where the magic happens
AFL Club
Essendon
Essendon had 2 picks before Hopper and didnt bid with either.
Yes, last season that happened! Something that has been talked about alot. Kennedy not being bid on till 14 was highway robbery too. Point being is that these players will get bids before GCSuns next live selection. That's a fact. Do you think GCS would pick bowes at 4 if noone bid before them? Hell no.. But a bid will come. There is talk that ess are willing to bid on him this season
 

coniglio_number1

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Sep 16, 2011
Posts
6,292
Likes
7,086
Location
pannawonica
AFL Club
GWS
GM.... any good list management team always looks at its possibles.. whether it happens or not..Lobb instance is from WA..been speculated that Freo will come at him. His form means he is worth more than the original estimate for a new contract when due ..its not unreasonable that they attempt to have redundancies.
Lobb left Perth at 14 due to excessive bullying. He does not suffer homesickness and has lived away from home since he was a young teenager.
 
Top Bottom