List Mgmt. 2016 Trade Thread

[Sando22]

It's a much closer representation of his value than that suggestion. That would be disastrous for us if we lost a contracted young elite key forward for that trade. We might as well put up the 'free to good home' sign if we roll over that easily this year.

Edit: I forgot that we get to keep pick 26

I don't think it's anywhere near as bad as you're suggesting

 

[Marc_Remillard]

I don't think it's anywhere near as bad as you're suggesting

Really? Pick 19 has very little value compared to Hogan's worth, Hibberd even less so. 12 is the main attraction but the chances of picking up someone elite with that pick is slim.

If we're going to lose an elite key forward then we have to replace him with another elite player. Not Hibberd and pick 19.

We need to have either a top 3 pick or a young player who will immediately walk into the team and be a 10 year player. We're aiming for finals next year not 3-4 years when the kids taken with those picks will eventually be ready to play at the highest level. How many years have we invested into Hogan?

 

[Sando22]

Really? Pick 19 has very little value compared to Hogan's worth, Hibberd even less so. 12 is the main attraction but the chances of picking up someone elite with that pick is slim.

If we're going to lose an elite key forward then we have to replace him with another elite player. Not Hibberd and pick 19.

We need to have either a top 3 pick or a young player who will immediately walk into the team and be a 10 year player. We're aiming for finals next year not 3-4 years when the kids taken with those picks will eventually be ready to play at the highest level. How many years have we invested into Hogan?

It's basically 2 first rounders and a bloke who would have an immediate impact.
Hibberd is 26, not 30 as you would be implying.

To say we couldn't pick up a good kid at 12 is crap.
Plenty of bloody good footballers been selected at (or after) 12.

2005 - Nathan Jones.
2006 - James Frawley. Jack Riewoldt @ pick 13.
2007 - Cyril Rioli. Alex Rance @ pick 18.
2008 - Dayne Beams @ pick 29 and Dan Hanners @ pick 30.
2009 - Nat Fyfe @ pick 20.
2010 - Luke Parker @ pick 40.
2011 - Sam Docherty. Taylor Adams @ pick 13.
2012 - Bust.
2013 - Patrick Cripps @ pick 13. Zach Merrett @ pick 26.
2014/15 - Bit early to tell.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

It's basically 2 first rounders and a bloke who would have an immediate impact.
Hibberd is 26, not 30 as you would be implying.

To say we couldn't pick up a good kid at 12 is crap.
Plenty of bloody good footballers been selected at (or after) 12.

2005 - Nathan Jones.
2006 - James Frawley. Jack Riewoldt @ pick 13.
2007 - Cyril Rioli. Alex Rance @ pick 18.
2008 - Dayne Beams @ pick 29 and Dan Hanners @ pick 30.
2009 - Nat Fyfe @ pick 20.
2010 - Luke Parker @ pick 40.
2011 - Sam Docherty. Taylor Adams @ pick 13.
2012 - Bust.
2013 - Patrick Cripps @ pick 13. Zach Merrett @ pick 26.
2014/15 - Bit early to tell.

Hibberd will be 27 when the season starts next year, not sure where I said he was 30.

WTF does Luke Parker taken at pick 40 have to do with this discussion? Or Hanners at 30. Sure plenty of good footballers get taken in later rounds but the reality is that for every great player there are at least 10 duds as well. Later picks means less choice of the players we want to take, only a club wanting points for an academy pick would trade a top 3 pick for picks 12 and 19.

For the sake of the argument let's see what picks 12 and 19 would have historically got us:

2015 - Too early to judge
2014 - Ellis and Boekhurst
2013 - Lennon and Acres
2012 - Jaksch and Ben Kennedy
2011 - Dochety & Kavanagh
2010 - L.Cook and I.Smith
2009 - Lucas and Griffiths
2008 - L.Johnston and Strauss
2007 - C.Rioli and C.Ward
2006 - Frawley and S.Grigg
2004 - N.Jones and C.Dempsey

So we would have to go all the way back to 2007 for a result that would be in our favour. We're basically giving up an elite young key forward fpr roughly a 30% of getting an elite talent onto our list.

FMD

 

[Sando22]

TF does Luke Parker taken at pick 40 have to do with this discussion? Or Hanners at 30.

That elite players do get selected at 12 or after and it's not a 'slim chance'.

 

[MFCforever]

Right, here's how we get Jesse home.

Fyfe to West Coast, Darling & W.C. 1st round to Freo.

Darling, W.C. 1st round, Freo's 1st round and Neale to Melbourne.

Hogan to Freo - job done!

 

[Marc_Remillard]

That elite players do get selected at 12 or after and it's not a 'slim chance'.

In the last 8 years how many elite players were selected @ 12?

You highlighted Luke Parker who was taken at pick 40 in the 2010 draft. Let's see who was taken around his pick to give a true indication of the value of draft picks.

The 5 players taken prior to Parker in that draft were:

Jeremy Taylor
Mitchell Hallahan
George Horlin-Smith
Aaron Young
Ben Newton

The 5 players taken after Parker were:

Tom Liberatore (Father/son selection)
Luke Mitchell
Sam Croker
Viv Mitchie
Alex Fasolo

Cherry picking the best players taken in the draft and using them as evidence that we're going to get a great talent at pick 19 is a poor argument.

Picks 12 and 19 for Hogan would be a terrible result for MElbourne in the short term, it may or may not be a good result in the long term, but it's probably got about a 30% chance of coming off (based on previous draft results)

 

[Sando22]

In the last 8 years how many elite players were selected @ 12?

You highlighted Luke Parker who was taken at pick 40 in the 2010 draft. Let's see who was taken around his pick to give a true indication of the value of draft picks.

The 5 players taken prior to Parker in that draft were:

Jeremy Taylor
Mitchell Hallahan
George Horlin-Smith
Aaron Young
Ben Newton

The 5 players taken after Parker were:

Tom Liberatore (Father/son selection)
Luke Mitchell
Sam Croker
Viv Mitchie
Alex Fasolo

Cherry picking the best players taken in the draft and using them as evidence that we're going to get a great talent at pick 19 is a poor argument.

Picks 12 and 19 for Hogan would be a terrible result for MElbourne in the short term, it may or may not be a good result in the long term, but it's probably got about a 30% chance of coming off (based on previous draft results)

Didn't cherry pick the good ones to suit my argument because there were plenty more I could have added.
Just an example to show that elite talent can easily and is often found at or after pick 12.
With picks 12, 19 and 26 at our disposal, I would back our recruiters to find at least 2 bloody good footballers.
FWIW I did go on to say that we'd probably prefer a good player thrown in and go the Hibberd deal to Essendon for 26.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Didn't cherry pick the good ones to suit my argument because there were plenty more I could have added.
Just an example to show that elite talent can easily and is often found at or after pick 12.
With picks 12, 19 and 26 at our disposal, I would back our recruiters to find at least 2 bloody good footballers.
FWIW I did go on to say that we'd probably prefer a good player thrown in and go the Hibberd deal to Essendon for 26.

Sadly picks 12 and 19 haven't resulted in elite talent, you have to go back 8 years to get someone elite.

I don't want lower value multiple picks or depth players like Hibberd in exchange for an elite talent like Hogan. We need someone who will be a top 5 player and play for 10 years. The chance of getting that with that stated trade is remote and history supports that.

 

[blitznu]

With 12, 19, 26
we could sling those picked to geelong and port for Motlop, Vardy and Hartlett with a few picks back our way
So could turn Hogan into Hibberd, Motlop Vardy and Hartlett so not sure the argument of saying we wouldnt get top end talent in the draft cause we could trade those picks for decent established players which i would rather get out of a Hogan deal anyway and all 4 could play in our best 22 next year and our depth would be crazy. Just an idea wouldnt be the worst trade period for us

 

[booshboy]

According to Jay Clark, the lions are into Dunny. Geeze you'd feel for the bloke; from one basket case to another.

 

[Proper Gander]

According to Jay Clark, the lions are into Dunny. Geeze you'd feel for the bloke; from one basket case to another.

I do have some pain for him - but the Lions have a reputation as overpaying for players. So in the absence of flag or anything resembling one, a bit of $ prior to retirement would have to be a temptation.

 

[LeverPuller]

I do have some pain for him - but the Lions have a reputation as overpaying for players. So in the absence of flag or anything resembling one, a bit of $ prior to retirement would have to be a temptation.

Plus they might fling us a 2nd

 

[The Dr]

I reckon a few clubs would be into Dunn. Still a very capable key defender.

Reckon we'd be looking at a third rounder for him though, which isn't heaps, but our recruiters have found gold in later rounds recently.

 

[Proper Gander]

Plus they might fling us a 2nd

Good point.

Hard to let go of a long-term soldier like Dunn though. Plus how he reinvented himself as a defender when asked to do so. Plus how good he looked wearing the beard for Casey yesterday.

I want TWO second rounders and at least one handsome beard coming back.

 

[TheCount]

Good point.

Hard to let go of a long-term soldier like Dunn though. Plus how he reinvented himself as a defender when asked to do so. Plus how good he looked wearing the beard for Casey yesterday.

I want TWO second rounders and at least one handsome beard coming back.

I just read some comments on a Lions Facebook page ... fair to say the consensus on them taking Dunn was negative. Although what was also clear is how little any of them knew about him ... there were comments about his mo, and his lack of leadership.

I'll be sad to see him go, but he's unfortunately become depth, and if he can fetch a price, I'll get over it. Plus he'll be up my way, we can catch up for a beer!

 

[Proper Gander]

I just read some comments on a Lions Facebook page ... fair to say the consensus on them taking Dunn was negative. Although what was also clear is how little any of them knew about him ... there were comments about his mo, and his lack of leadership.

I'll be sad to see him go, but he's unfortunately become depth, and if he can fetch a price, I'll get over it. Plus he'll be up my way, we can catch up for a beer!

Understandable the comments from Lions supporters - he would never represent the instant golden ticket they are after. Lack of leadership seems unfair but it's an intangible that you can't expect a supporter group two states away to have a handle on. From my point of view he seems a very good temporary replacement for Merritt for the Lions, immediate impact will be better, to provide a buffer and some experience while their very young spine develops.

I too will be very sad to say goodbye, but he still has football in him that may not make best 22 for Melbourne again. I'll get over it fine, but more importantly if he thinks he can provide something useful to a struggling team plus play som AFL games then I tip my hat to him and say cheerio.

He is no Scully and not even a Frawley. As far as I'm concerned he's essentially Melbourne. And I only warmed to him over time - but I'll wager Brisbane isn't the only club to have had a look at him. Solid player in defence, big body and exceptional kick in terms of distance.

 

[blitznu]

Would be happy with pick 38 for Dunn if thats what the lions hand over

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Dunn took a pretty quick slide out of favour, i wonder if Goodwin was behind it.

 

[Proper Gander]

Would be happy with pick 38 for Dunn if thats what the lions hand over

Plus a beard surely. Doesn't need to be attached to anyone.

 

[The Dr]

Would be happy with pick 38 for Dunn if thats what the lions hand over

No way we'd get a pick that high, imo.

Lions' third rounder at best.

 

[blitznu]

No way we'd get a pick that high, imo.

Lions' third rounder at best.

Umm 38 would be lions 3rd

 

[TheCount]

Understandable the comments from Lions supporters - he would never represent the instant golden ticket they are after. Lack of leadership seems unfair but it's an intangible that you can't expect a supporter group two states away to have a handle on. From my point of view he seems a very good temporary replacement for Merritt for the Lions, immediate impact will be better, to provide a buffer and some experience while their very young spine develops.

Knowing what I know about Lions supporters, I can confirm that they have absolutely no idea

He's a massive upgrade on Merrett at his best ... let alone an upgrade on the utter trash he was in his last 2-3 years.

 

[Proper Gander]

No way we'd get a pick that high, imo.

Lions' third rounder at best.

Plus a beard at the least.

(I like Lyndon. I see the sense in a trade for all parties, but it doesn't stop me being a bit sad...)

 

[Proper Gander]

Knowing what I know about Lions supporters, I can confirm that they have absolutely no idea

He's a massive upgrade on Merrett at his best ... let alone an upgrade on the utter trash he was in his last 2-3 years.

He would be great for them. I ran this rumour past my partner who is an ex demon under 17s and 19s plus reserves for the Dees in early 1900s etc - so essentially has forgotten more football then I could ever know. And while he's reluctant to consider it because we're talking about our Dunn, he thought it made excellent sense from Brisbane's POV and a marked upgrade on Merrett. Brisbane would do well to ask Dunn to consider them. Stuff the Lions supporters online - once Dunny has flattened a few forwards they will come around. And I rate his leadership - the man is never silent on field, and he encourages young guys and takes a bit of biff away from them. Assuming he is willing to consider a move, it's a very believable trade, and if he grabbed at it nobody could begrudge him.