2016 US Presidential Election Prediction Thread

[Inferno]

With the 2016 Election Day FINALLY almost upon us, it's time that the finest political minds (or really just anyone who wants to join in and have a go!) on BigFooty have a go at predicting who gets to 270 electoral college votes and how they get there.

Does The Donald Make American Great Again™ and prove the scores of doubters wrong with his late poll surge? Will Hillary become the first female President and lead the Democrats to their first third term in the White House in over half a century?

Have a play around on 270 to Win and see what your total is for each of the candidates based on your predictions.

FiveThirtyEight forecast (6/11):

Likely Clinton:
Oregon (+8.7)
Maine (+6.3)

Leaning Clinton:
New Mexico (+5.5)
Minnesota (+5.1)
Virginia (+5)
Wisconsin (+4.4)

Marginal Clinton:
Michigan (+3.9)
Pennsylvania (+3.6)
Colorado (+3.4)
New Hampshire (+2.1)

Tossup (Clinton lead):
None
--------------------------------
Tossup (Trump lead):
North Carolina (+0.1)
Florida (+0.1)
Nevada (+0.1)
Maine 2nd Congressional District (+0.9)

Marginal Trump:
Ohio (+2.4)
Iowa (+3.3)
Arizona (+3.4)

Leaning Trump:
Nebraska 2nd Congressional District (+4.1)
Georgia (+4.7)

Likely Trump:
South Carolina (+6.9)
Alaska (+7.5)
Texas (+9.6)
Utah (+11.1) v Clinton and McMullin

Clinton: 272
Trump: 266


RCP forecast (6/11):

Likely Clinton:

Oregon (+8)
New Mexico (+7)
Minnesota (+6)

Leaning Clinton:
Wisconsin (+5.5)
Virginia (+5.2)
Maine (+4.5)

Marginal Clinton:
Michigan (+4)
Colorado (+2.9)
Pennsylvania (+2.5)

Tossup (Clinton lead):
Florida (+1.2)
------------------------------
Tossup (Trump lead):
Maine 2nd Congressional District (+0.5)
North Carolina (+0.8)
New Hampshire (+1.6)
Nevada (+2)

Marginal Trump:
Iowa (+2.4)
Ohio (+3.3)
Arizona (+4)

Leaning Trump:
Georgia (+4.6)

Likely Trump:
Alaska (+6)
South Carolina (+7.5)
Utah (+10.4) v Clinton and McMullin

Clinton: 297
Trump: 241

 

[JP2]

Ohio and NC the only one's I'm really unsure about, mixed signs there from early voting and polls. And ME will be solid blue, forgot to change it on the map.

 

[Cooldude]

Yep either 307 or 322 for Clinton is my guess, too, depending on NC

 

[JP2]

Best I can do for Trump is to give him FL, NC and NH, but that still only takes him to 264. If he loses any of those three, then it's obviously game over. But even if he wins all three then he'll still need to win in one of: NV (where Clinton has much a bigger lead in EV than Obama did in 2012, when he won there by 7 points), MI (early voting looking good for Dems, Trump hasn't led in a poll there all cycle), WI (record voting in democratic areas, depressed turnout in republican areas compared to EV in previous years), PA (where the GOP thinks they might win every year for some reason, but where they always get creamed) or VA (PA v 2.0). If Trump wins any of those last 5 I will buy a Make America Great Again cap and eat it.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Have tuned out over the past two weeks, so not well versed with polling trends. Nevertheless:



Colours used to indicate relative likelihood of victory.

Not sure if Arizona has been coming back or not, but it was looking very good for Clinton before Trump clawed back a little bit. I'll colour it blue, but I'd have it as 50-50.

No idea what happens in Utah with McMullin in play - another true tossup, but I'll leave it with Trump when forced.

Additionally: GOP to keep the House, Senate to split 50-50 (but with Kaine as VP of course. Dems are royally screwed there come midterms).

 

[Mofra]

273 college votes to the either candidate, the losing side to challenge the results, America to tear itself apart, China to be the world's largest economy by the end of 2019 (one year sooner than current predictions).

 

[Ned_Flanders]

273 college votes to the either candidate, the losing side to challenge the results, America to tear itself apart, China to be the world's largest economy by the end of 2019 (one year sooner than current predictions).

Ive been pondering this myself

If trump loses, what will his concession speech be like?

Imagine if a losing candidate issued a call for arms, and asked their supporters to march on the capital on mass

I hope it doesnt happen, but ive said similar so often re trump this election

 

[iBeng]

My vote is that either one that gets in will be assassinated at some point in time by either followers supporters.

 

[Mofra]

Ive been pondering this myself

If trump loses, what will his concession speech be like?

Imagine if a losing candidate issued a call for arms, and asked their supporters to march on the capital on mass

I hope it doesnt happen, but ive said similar so often re trump this election

I don't think he'll concede, which will entrench the negative dialogue and animosity between the two Americas.

After Obama won, Dubya at least wrote him an extremely classy and thoughtful welcome letter. I'd expect Obama will write a similar letter for the next POTUS. I don't think Trump would do anything like that.

 

[Mofra]

My vote is that either one that gets in will be assassinated at some point in time by either followers supporters.

Interesting you say that - my sister was in Austin earlier in the year and it's what quite a lot of people think. Then next POTUS wont survive the term, and some suggest won't survive 12 months.

 

[Gough]

To be fair, people say that about every single incoming President.

 

[iBeng]

Trump is physically incapable of conceding ANYTHING. He is so self absorbed any result that goes against him is rigged.

 

[mellowyellow]

Would lmao if Trump won the popular vote (which he wont ) but lose the electoral vote and the Presidency. I can just imagine the s**t storm and division it would create as a result

 

[randall boner]

Clinton has been selected by the elite no way she loses.The bitch should be in jail with her so called husband bill......

 

[iBeng]

Clinton has been selected by the elite no way she loses.The bitch should be in jail with her so called husband bill......

Anyone who thinks Trump isnt balls deep with these "Elite" secret whatevers you want to call them are delusional.

 

[Deaneus!]

Big_Birdy picture but no score

Davo-27 Trump 290, Hillary 248

pjcrows Clinton 293 Trump 245

Wingard4Coleman Trump 306 Clinton 232

deaneus Clinton 308 Trump 230

Juddism Clinton 323 Trump 213

Kynge of Begrem Clinton 335 Trump 203

Happy Mastenator Clinton 323 Trump 215

funk44 Clinton 307 Trump 231

 

[Deaneus!]

Would lmao if Trump won the popular vote (which he wont ) but lose the electoral vote and the Presidency. I can just imagine the s**t storm and division it would create as a result

I can see the Democrats reminding everyone of Bush/Gore in 2000 with a smile

(assuming I'm thinking of the right election)

 

[funk44]

Here is my image. Thinking that NC may fall to Clinton now too based on early voting numbers

 

[mellowyellow]

I can see the Democrats reminding everyone of Bush/Gore in 2000 with a smile

(assuming I'm thinking of the right election)

You are The touch of irony would be delicious

 

[WA ROO]

This election was over 2 years ago
So who wins in 2022
Michelle Obama or Chelsea Clinton?

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Wow, looks like I am the must bullish for Clinton...

 

[Juddism]

 

[funk44]

Georgia is a big call

 

[Juddism]

Georgia is a big call

I know, but the last two elections I've been on the #'s so I'm going with my gut.

 

[Pedantic]

Unpopular opinion, but I think Trump will outperform the polling by about 2-3 points which would most likely see this map. My main thought behind this is that if ever a US Presidential candidate is going to have a "shy Tory" effect it will be Trump.