2016 US Presidential Election Prediction Thread

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Pedantic said:
Unpopular opinion, but I think Trump will outperform the polling by about 2-3 points which would most likely see this map. My main thought behind this is that if ever a US Presidential candidate is going to have a "shy Tory" effect it will be Trump.
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That must be the big concern, though it may well swing both ways, I don't see Clinton winning any popularity contests.

I'm not game or knowledgeable enough to make a prediction but if Trump did get up, it wouldn't be a shock.
 

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Mofra said:
273 college votes to the either candidate, the losing side to challenge the results, America to tear itself apart, China to be the world's largest economy by the end of 2019 (one year sooner than current predictions).
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It was unthinkable for the Soviet Union to fall apart as it did, perhaps the US could as well. The politics has become so toxic, the gap between rich and poor so great and government so dead locked that something extreme and unexpected could happen. Perhaps a split along the lines of 'liberal' coastal states with Dumb*istan in the middle. All hail the New Californian Republic.
 
darth_timon said:
Well seeing as those are the choices the smartest move is definitely Hillary.

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There are more than two choices. People just don't bother to vote for them.

Imagine if everyone suddenly had enough and poured all their votes to someone like Jill Stein. Now that'd be a shock fitting for this election.
 
Thrawn said:
There are more than two choices. People just don't bother to vote for them.

Imagine if everyone suddenly had enough and poured all their votes to someone like Jill Stein. Now that'd be a shock fitting for this election.
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There are only two choices of consequence, and the smart move in those circumstances is a vote for Hillary.

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If Ghouliani is gonna be AG and Newt Secretary of State under Trump then ******* oath Clinton is infinitely the better choice

What is he gonna make Chris Christie, new head of the FBI?

Also the polls today look pretty good for Clinton, I think it'll be the landslide that was it gonna be two weeks ago. She'll win Florida North Carolina Nevada and an outside chance for Ohio
 
Cooldude said:
If Ghouliani is gonna be AG and Newt Secretary of State under Trump then ******* oath Clinton is infinitely the better choice

What is he gonna make Chris Christie, new head of the FBI?
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Now that's scary s**t
 
CD Xbow said:
It was unthinkable for the Soviet Union to fall apart as it did, perhaps the US could as well. The politics has become so toxic, the gap between rich and poor so great and government so dead locked that something extreme and unexpected could happen. Perhaps a split along the lines of 'liberal' coastal states with Dumb****istan in the middle. All hail the New Californian Republic.
Click to expand...
What you're suggesting isn't quite as far fetched as one would expect - "The South Will Rise Again" is still a slogan for millions, Texans have always been Texan first American second, California alone is the world's 5th largest economy and I dare say liberal states with a semi-functioning economy would boom if they jettisoned the rustbelt states.

I still have a lot of sympathy for a slight twist of Zizek's view - that a Trump victory is the best thing liberal America could hope for as it would completely reset the US Political system (after 4 years of agony) and absolutely fracture the GOP beyond repair.

Of course, if Trump doesn't quit to pursue a media career within 4 years, and again if he survives.
 
Mofra said:
What you're suggesting isn't quite as far fetched as one would expect - "The South Will Rise Again" is still a slogan for millions, Texans have always been Texan first American second, California alone is the world's 5th largest economy and I dare say liberal states with a semi-functioning economy would boom if they jettisoned the rustbelt states.

I still have a lot of sympathy for a slight twist of Zizek's view - that a Trump victory is the best thing liberal America could hope for as it would completely reset the US Political system (after 4 years of agony) and absolutely fracture the GOP beyond repair.

Of course, if Trump doesn't quit to pursue a media career within 4 years, and again if he survives.
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I actually had a good debate with a mate about this a few months ago, and while its up for debate, a split cant happen

Texas has been discussing sessession for decades now, not seriously enough however to get real momentum

The key issue however is The civil war confirmed the invalidity of sessession, and this was backed up by texas vs white
 

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rfctiger74 said:
I actually had a good debate with a mate about this a few months ago, and while its up for debate, a split cant happen

Texas has been discussing sessession for decades now, not seriously enough however to get real momentum

The key issue however is The civil war confirmed the invalidity of sessession, and this was backed up by texas vs white
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I've avoided absolutes since Trump won his first state during the GOP nominations.
The law (domestic a or international) is now an inconvenience rather than an inalienable roadblock. See Australia's view of UN conventions or our suspension of HR to proceed with the NT intervention. .
 
Cooldude said:
If Ghouliani is gonna be AG and Newt Secretary of State under Trump then ******* oath Clinton is infinitely the better choice

What is he gonna make Chris Christie, new head of the FBI?

Also the polls today look pretty good for Clinton, I think it'll be the landslide that was it gonna be two weeks ago. She'll win Florida North Carolina Nevada and an outside chance for Ohio
Click to expand...

Crazy stuff!!!
 
Mofra said:
I've avoided absolutes since Trump won his first state during the GOP nominations.
The law (domestic a or international) is now an inconvenience rather than an inalienable roadblock. See Australia's view of UN conventions or our suspension of HR to proceed with the NT intervention. .
Click to expand...

Key is the union would have to support the breaking up of the union. The square states would fight it tooth and nail, and have enough votes to veto any move
 
Clinton will win, will be slimmer than most predictions but she'll clearly have the popular vote.
 
Mofra said:
I've avoided absolutes since Trump won his first state during the GOP nominations.
The law (domestic a or international) is now an inconvenience rather than an inalienable roadblock. See Australia's view of UN conventions or our suspension of HR to proceed with the NT intervention. .
Click to expand...
Look at the way the conservative press in Britain attacked the High Court's Brexit decision.
 
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Given the demographics (increase in the Latino vote, steady African-American voting numbers, Trump being unappealing to women voters in general), the greater number of Republicans voting for Clinton compared to Democrats voting for Trump (according to polls at least), the greater amount of public opposition to Trump from conservative circles compared to public opposition to Clinton from liberal circles and given Obama still has good approval ratings (with Trump essentially being the antithesis of Obama), Clinton should win the election fairly comfortably.

Out of the so-called battleground states, I have Trump winning in Ohio and Iowa but the Democrats may possibly retain Ohio thanks to early voting and strong performances in city and urban areas (probably not enough though). North Carolina may be a Republican retain but I think pretty unlikely or a very close result. Arizona could potentially be a Democrats win given the large Hispanic turnout and Evan McMullin might win Utah for teh lulz (unlikely but still possible).
 
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