2016 US Presidential Election - Trump vs Clinton? - Part 1

Who will win the election??


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Some should stop with the Brexit analogy. The US is fundamentally different. First, UK polling is notorious for being unreliable, this is due to the nature of their elections, smaller baseline pool and lower quality analysis. UK pollsters are famous for using novel methods, due to the difficulty of accurately predicting results, whereas the US has more conventional voting and a massive number of elections, creating a reliable sample.

Also, the primary vote in the UK swings conservative, hence they often outperform polls. The US is the opposite, both on issues and primary vote, there is a huge Democrat advantage. Hence predicting Trump will do a Brexit seems weird. That proportionally large, latent pool of conservative voters isn't there. I can't predict if he will win, but so far in the primaries he underperformed based on 538 polls and that was amongst conservatives. Given the wider population Dems outnumber Repubs by like 40% and they massively outpoll Repubs on key issues, guess we will need to be patient with the election and see if any events counter the natural advantages.
I will not stop with the Leave analogy, because it's the same movement, as indeed is the case across continental Europe right now as well. There are minor differences from country to country that are unique to their own circumstances, but the force behind each movement is the same.
 

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Betty Noir

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They weren't at the debate.
Oh, you're referring to to pub scene, in the 2 horse mid west town... yeah I know the one. Nothing conclusive from that. There was another focus group, that has been run every election for nearly 40 years and although the numbers are tiny (16 - 20), the analysis has been indicative of the vote nationwide. (Bit like how Nate Silver jags his way through the numbers). More luck than anything I say. LOL
 

Betty Noir

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Peres/Clinton 2 state solution. Trump/Netanyahu single state.
Peace option/war option.

(Peres just died BTW. Peres man of peace. Netanyahu aggressor and criminal according to ICJ. And key manipulator of the GOP.
Peres adored in Israel. Netanyahu disliked.)
Not sure if Trump gets any of this. We'll find out one way or another.
 

Happy Mastenator

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The reality is that if he could stay on message, he'd have a chance. But he can't. No self-control plus an insatiable ego. Shame really. They are both campaigners, and the people deserve better.
Trump can't stay on message because he doesn't have a message. His message is what he thinks people want to hear at a particular time updated constatnly.

If that means changing positions multiple times in the day then god damm that's what he'll do! Point out contradictions and lies and what he said and he'll just deny it.
 

Betty Noir

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The Taliban have entered the fray now too. They've derided trump which may have the intention of empowering his base. For them it's a win win. If it's Clinton the hostilities drag on as per world order, and they continue to reap huge arms and chattels revenues, or under trump they win, without opposition, taking all and slaughtering all and sundry along the way. Personally I think they'd be rooting for Clinton... there's no profit in peace. More to come. Gotta fly. Literally.
 
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I love how all these liberals think they are qualified experts on what conservative's think and their motivations, "Don't agree with me..you must be racist or sexist" , got nothing on Freud these holier than thou- hive mind lefty lap dog kumquats.
 

Happy Mastenator

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I love how all these liberals think they are qualified experts on what conservative's think and their motivations, "Don't agree with me..you must be racist or sexist" , got nothing on Freud these holier than thou- hive mind lefty lap dog kumquats.
Real conservatives that articulate positoins of traditionally conservative nature while avoiding racist comments aren't racist. Sadly most open their mouth and prove they are racist.
 

happy_eagle

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I love how all these liberals think they are qualified experts on what conservative's think and their motivations, "Don't agree with me..you must be racist or sexist" , got nothing on Freud these holier than thou- hive mind lefty lap dog kumquats.
Stick to posting frog faces on things, thats more your level
 
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