2016 US Presidential Election - Trump vs Clinton? - Part 1

Who will win the election??


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swingdog

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Do you want to stereotype the people I talk to?
Not at all, but I just doubt that you set out to speak to and managed to speak to a representative sample of Americans. That's fine but I could confidently walk the streets of my suburb and struggle to find anyone who voted for Tony Abbott. I just don't then assume that nobody did.
 

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swingdog

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Why does everything always have to become a right/left shitfight

So how do we all think Nevada will end up for the Republicans? Can Trump win again?, How many poor results before Carson pulls the plug?
I think Trump will win - Las Vegas is his kind of town. Plus Rubio and Cruz are splitting the Latino vote pretty much down the middle.
 

Sydney Bloods

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Why does everything always have to become a right/left shitfight

So how do we all think Nevada will end up for the Republicans? Can Trump win again?, How many poor results before Carson pulls the plug?
like cruz carson thinks he's on a mission from god. he'll fight until he runs out of money or mathematically cannot win.
 
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As the candidate pool thins, Rubio will strengthen. That is a huge amount of money and support. Also a larger amount of media spotlight.
Where exactly are those votes going to come from? He is leading in zero states, and Kasich will be sticking around until Ohio, because he's running Trump close there.
 

Elroo

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Senate Republicans have announced they have decided to not even form a committee to assess any candidates put forward by Obama to replace the Scalia due to it being an election year and will wait till a new President is in power next year.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/senate-gop-decides-no-hearing-for-any-obama-scotus-nominee

Key Republican senators on the Judiciary Committee emerged from a closed door meeting in Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's office Tuesday united in their determination not to consider any nominee to replace Antonin Scalia until the next president takes office.

Tuesday was the first full day the Senate was back in session since Scalia's death Feb. 13.

"We believe the American people need to decide who is going to make this appointment rather than a lame duck president," said Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TN).

When asked if they would start the process after the new president took office or if they would consider doing it in the lame duck session, Cornyn replied "No, after the next president is selected. That way the American people have a voice in the process."

The Republican members of the Judiciary Commitee were unanimous in agreeing not to move forward with any Obama nominee for the Supreme Court, said Cornyn, who was in the meeting. Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), who was not in the meeting, later said that GOP senators were told at their weekly lunch that the Judiciary Committee Republicans were in unanimous agreement on the strategy.

Meanwhile, Judiciary Committee Chair Charles Grassley (R-IA) and the rest of the committee Republicans sent a letter to McConnell outlining their plan to block any Obama nominee for Scalia's seat.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said that "there's no use starting a process that's not going to go anywhere and we are going to let the next president decide," when asked why there would be no hearings.

When TPM asked if he had political concerns about the decision not to move forward with a nominee, Graham responded."I have zero concerns politically."

"I think this is what they would do," Graham said referring to Senate Democrats. "For them to say they wouldn't do this is a lie."

Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) demurred saying that Republicans were "still talking."
The meeting in McConnell's office came not long after he made a speech on the Senate floor vowing to block any Obama nominee.

"Presidents have a right to nominate just as the Senate has its constitutional right to provide or withhold consent. In this case, the Senate will withhold it," McConnell said. "The Senate will appropriately revisit the matter after the American people finish making in November the decision they've already started making today."
Official document here;

https://www.documentcloud.org/docum...2-23-16-Member-Signed-Letter-No-Hearings.html

They've even signed a statement supporting this view of no supreme court judge nominations by the President in an election year, despite the fact that three of the signatories had no problem previously confirming Justice Kennedy during an election year: Grassely, Hatch & Graham.
 
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I think Trump will win - Las Vegas is his kind of town. Plus Rubio and Cruz are splitting the Latino vote pretty much down the middle.
Trump will win NV by double digits - can't see any further movement in the number of candidates until after Super Tuesday. By this time next week though we may be down to 3 candidates on the republican side, depending how results fall.
 

Play by Numbers

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Where exactly are those votes going to come from? He is leading in zero states, and Kasich will be sticking around until Ohio, because he's running Trump close there.
We are at the beggining of the primary race, there are a lot of states left so it is impossible to predict when and how Kasich or even Cruz will pull out of the race. The issue the Donald has, is that he is operating close to his ceiling, as the pool thins money, votes and party support will grow behind Rubio. Jeb pulling out saw a huge surge in money for Rubio and a bump support, especially endorsements.

Rubio not leading is irrelevant, as he will pick up delegates in non winner takes all states, likewise, as has been stated over and over, polling this early for primaries tells us nothing.

Do I think Rubio will win it, unlikely. But the situation is changing and it is only a matter of time before the anti-Trump forces zero in on a single candidate and start attacking Trump. If Cruz doesn't go the distance, that bis a huge issue for Trump as most of those voters will shift to Rubio, whose platform is very similar to Cruz.
 

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Norm Smith Medallist
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Trump absolutely killing it so far
Trump 46%
Rubio 24%
Cruz 20%

16% votes counted
Trump should win big, it's a perfect state for him.

What I am interested in is how does his margin compare to polls. So far he has done well, but below what polls expect. In a way, that is worrying if he ends up in a close race with Rubio or becomes the choice for the general. If voter turnout and support are not translating into expected margins or better than expected, then ufavorables are a big issue.

Much like Hillary he registers high in unfavorables, which goes back to my point, Trump may have a hard and fast ceiling. Evangelicals aren't an issue, and we already know establishment types are aligned against him, but not attacking him and have not presented behind a particular candidate. Where the issue may arise is that traditional conservatives stack against him. That will likely put a cap on numbers.

Republicans already represent a small proportion of the total vote, at around 30%. Trump may find himself not pushing beyond 30-35% of that total. He has already established a base which is great, but the rest of the republican vote is divided. He will likely win the nom but, if a large proportion of the more conservative vote settle around a candidate, maybe Rubio it could spell trouble late. Particularly as many states have low independant turnout as compared to Iowa etc.

What this does mean though, is Trump will need Obama like turnout from non Republican voters to come close in a general and rely on say record democratic lows
 
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Norm Smith Medallist
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Trump polling somewhere around the 46% mark with Hispanics in Nevada is impressive.
Not really, it is expected.

Due to his industry links it was expected he would get a huge portion of the vote amongst people who work in hospitality and gambling.

Likewise, you need to see the demographic breakdown, what is the age, country of origin, etc.

Are they older Cubanos and 2nd gen Americans?
 

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Good to see that they are voting for him as he best represents their interests
I think there is certainly a point of contention coming later in the race.

Trump is anti-immigrant, but he isn't a conservative. A demagogue yes, but he stands well apart from traditional conservative let alone tea party lib values.

So the question arises, will a conservative candidate in Rubio, if the sole contender shore off support and take advantage of Trumps lack of Republican credentials, or will progressives be vindicated and the tea party vote be split along social and economic lines.

Thus making the argument that many new libertarians are actually just bigots, with little care for libertarian economics.
 

Forward Press

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Sanders ahead of Clinton 41.7% to 35.5%.

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TR131

However, for people actually intending to vote, Clinton ahead 51% to 44%. Staggering difference.

It's an indicator of the common problem with the youth vote - they care enough to donate small amounts (enough to sustain an extended campaign anyway) but they don't care enough to vote. Obama overcame it but I'm doubting Sanders would. He really needs the minority vote and he's not gaining traction at all. Super Tuesday looks ominous for him.
 

medusala

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President Trump wouldn't be the worst thing ever. Never mistake the campaign for the government.
I think you may be right. He is no fool. How is someone meant to get the republican nomination without having the backing of the evangelical mob or the establishment? Trump has managed to do that. I think there is method to his madness (is there a Lynton Crosby type behind him?).

He may well fail. However, we know Hilary would definitely fail. The only thing she has succeeded at is bringing in cash for the Clinton Foundation and I think we all know how that came about.

Not really, it is expected.

Due to his industry links it was expected he would get a huge portion of the vote amongst people who work in hospitality and gambling.
Interesting point you make PBN. I wonder how many people vote (or will vote) for Trump simply because he is not a career politician? I suspect quite a few particularly if the anti establishment thing is as strong as suggested.
 
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Forward Press

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I think you may be right. He is no fool. How is someone meant to get the republican nomination without having the backing of the evangelical mob or the establishment? Trump has managed to do that. I think there is method to his madness (is there a Lynton Crosby type behind him?).

He may well fail. However, we know Hilary would definitely fail. The only thing she has succeeded at is bringing in cash for the Clinton Foundation and I think we all know how that came about.
Trump is still to win over the evangelical vote. Cruz and Rubio are both still courting it better. However if Trump was to win the nomination you'd expect them to fall in behind Trump.

Clinton has the money, wouldn't underestimate her. However, at this point in time Trump vs Clinton will not end well for the Democrats. He's stumbled upon the winning formula, and with no clear 2nd challenger I expect Trump to sweep most states on Tuesday.
 
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president trump....

So I guess the white house will become the trump house?

And if he does get in, he might actually have a clue about the budget finances unlike 99% in Capitol Hill at the moment
 

medusala

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Trump is still to win over the evangelical vote. Cruz and Rubio are both still courting it better. However if Trump was to win the nomination you'd expect them to fall in behind Trump..
I guess that's one positive you could put down for Trump, he hasn't come out with any God Bothering appeasement crap to win them over.

Clinton has the money, wouldn't underestimate her. However, at this point in time Trump vs Clinton will not end well for the Democrats. He's stumbled upon the winning formula, and with no clear 2nd challenger I expect Trump to sweep most states on Tuesday.
I read the below recently re $. Interesting.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...-buy-the-presidential-nomination-in-one-chart

We decided to chart the relationship, or lack thereof, between spending and success in the polls.

If you thought more spending leads to better poll results, you might expect most of the candidates to form a line stretching from the bottom-left to upper-right corner. The reality is messier, and if anything, the line seems to point the other way. That might give pause to anyone considering writing the next $1 million check
 

medusala

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I think you may be right. He is no fool. How is someone meant to get the republican nomination without having the backing of the evangelical mob or the establishment? Trump has managed to do that. I think there is method to his madness (is there a Lynton Crosby type behind him?).
No, there is a Trump behind him. He knows what he's doing.
 
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