2016 US Presidential Election - Trump vs Clinton? - Part 1

[Dont be a lemon]

It's 3 years, 3 months and 11 days away! And I suppose it won't get exciting until after the Congressional elections in 1 year, 3 months and 7 days. But any predictions to make now if you like? For the Democrats Hillary Clinton appears to be the front runner in the prospective polls but that doesn't mean a lot. Not sure who's leading the Republican prospective polls.

Clearly still a boatload of time of time for any candidate to get exposed for murdering children or elevated for curing cancer. Obama was a nobody when his predecessor was elected in 2000. Will his successor have been a nobody in 2008?

Fun fact: The Democratic Party hasn't won three consecutive presidential elections since a lifetime ago in 1948 (also 1944; they won 1940 and 1936).

Discuss and junk.

 

[Freo Big Fella]

Lots of water still to go under the bridge, but you'd think the Democratic nomination is Hillary's if she wants it. I doubt Obama would publicly shaft her and Bill after they help they gave the 2012 campaign.

Interesting that Rahm Emmanuel has put his hand up for the Dems - I reckon he's too much of a machine pollie to win the nomination, but he'd be a definite Cheney/Biden style VP pick if they go down the route of an inexperienced operator (Someone like Julian Castro maybe? Although they'd want to get him in the Senate or Congress pretty quickly.) The Chicago Machine proved it's well and truly alive and kicking last year, and Emmanuel is basically Mayor Daley redux.

As for the GOP, it all depends how much clout the Tea Party maintains in four years. Rand Paul would certainly be an eye opener, but I reckon you'll probably see someone like Rick Perry rearing their heads instead.

 

[clogged]

Who cares?

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Hillary Clinton
Daylight
Far right nutter put up by Republicans

 

[tazzietiger]

Alot of time still to go. Immigration reform will be a key issue given last years election and the population demographic change they all keep speaking off. Rubio will be running on the issue giving his been one of the architects behind the current bill.

My list of possible candidates at this stage.

GOP:
Chris Christie
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush

Dem:
Hillary Clinton
Dean Howard
Elizabeth Warren
Joe Biden

 

[medusala]

Interesting that Rahm Emmanuel has put his hand up for the Dems -

See below. doesn't look good for him even if he inherited the problems.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...balance-plummets-only-33-million-debt-triples

 

[Freo Big Fella]

See below. doesn't look good for him even if he inherited the problems.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...balance-plummets-only-33-million-debt-triples

That's pretty horrendous management - they're not exactly Detroit when it comes to population and a steady economic base.

 

[blackcat]

we are sure to see more of KissStephanie i reckon.

Hilary Rodham Clinton ftw. or as i like to call her. Hormone Replacement Clinton.

 

[blackcat]

Interesting that Rahm Emmanuel has put his hand up for the Dems - I reckon he's too much of a machine pollie to win the nomination,

rahm will be the first jewish president imo. i am not sure if he knocks off Clinton for the 2016 run. and if Clinton wins two terms, rahm might be back to 2028, or 2032. perhaps you are right and HRC takes him on as Veep. be a handy Veep

 

[medusala]

rahm will be the first jewish president imo. i am not sure if he knocks off Clinton for the 2016 run. and if Clinton wins two terms, rahm might be back to 2028, or 2032. perhaps you are right and HRC takes him on as Veep. be a handy Veep

Clinton bugger all chance of becoming president. Obama will see to that.

 

[blackcat]

Clinton bugger all chance of becoming president. Obama will see to that.

Bubba has the purse strings to the Dems in their party. major advantage very difficult/impossible to neutralise.

rahm also the heir to the Dems bagman throne

 

[medusala]

Bubba has the purse strings to the Dems in their party. major advantage very difficult/impossible to neutralise.

rahm also the heir to the Dems bagman throne

Republicans every chance next election as A) immigration bill will probably be passed and B) Obama is doing such a poor job the Dems will be on the nose and C) when QE ends there will be some fireworks, #gunpowderplot

 

[tazzietiger]

I forgot to add Ted Cruz to my list of potential GOP candidates.

With the mid-term elections only next year Palin's name has started showing up in primary polling.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) is Alaska Republicans' top choice to challenge Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska) in 2014, even though she would perform poorly against him in a general election, a Public Policy Polling survey released Tuesday found.
Palin was the choice of 36 percent of the Republican primary voters surveyed, but Begich would beat her in a hypothetical match-up, 52-40 percent. While Palin is well-liked among the GOP base, she is unpopular with voters overall, with 58 percent viewing her unfavorably and 39 percent viewing her favorably. Only 47 percent of voters still consider her to be an Alaskan, while 46 percent do not.
Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who has declared his candidacy, is the choice of 26 percent of Alaska Republicans. Treadwell also does the best of any Republican against Begich, earning the support of 40 percent of voters to Begich's 44 percent. Alaska Department of Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan, who is a potential candidate, has the support of 15 percent of Republican primary voters, while Joe Miller, who was the tea party-backed Republican Senate nominee in 2010 and is running again in 2014, came in last with 12 percent.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/30/sarah-palin-poll_n_3675616.html

 

[blackcat]

Republicans every chance next election as A) immigration bill will probably be passed and B) Obama is doing such a poor job the Dems will be on the nose and C) when QE ends there will be some fireworks, #gunpowderplot

last chance before the latino ticking time bomb. rove mcmanus and the gop strategists working on this. will fundamentally alter the gop. no more of those WASPie dinners like Romney was talking about those who take and dont provide. But Bush brother with mexican wife, could be a harbinger

 

[Palmer Stoat]

Tempting fate saying this after 2008, but it's hard to see anyone beating Hillary to the Democratic nomination. GOP is harder to predict. Would think it'll come down to Christie, Rubio, or Paul. Rubio would probably be my guess at the moment. Think Christie will have a harder sell to the GOP primary electorate.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

Who cares?

Most covered sporting event in the world outside of maybe the Tour de France and the Olympics.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

I forgot to add Ted Cruz to my list of potential GOP candidates.

Sign of the apocalypse if he gets elected.

 

[knife]

Any speculation of Jeb Bush running?

I think it would be extremely unhealthy if a Bush or Clinton had held office for 24 of the last 32 years, come 2020.

 

[samFFC]

Any speculation of Jeb Bush running?

I think it would be extremely unhealthy if a Bush or Clinton had held office for 24 of the last 32 years, come 2020.

Certainly a chance - and that is a bit scary isn't it? Given they'd be a chance to win two terms, that would be 28 of 36 years!

Sportsbet says:
Dems: Clinton is the only won under $15. Next lot is Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O'Malley, Joe Biden etc..

GOP: Christie, Rubio, Rand Paul, Ryan and Jeb Bush - all $10 or less. Arnie is at $67. That would be truly breathtaking stupidity, given that at this time it would be impossible for him to become POTUS.

 

[blackcat]

Sportsbet says:

GOP: Christie, Rubio, Rand Paul, Ryan and Jeb Bush - all $10 or less. Arnie is at $67. That would be truly breathtaking stupidity, given that at this time it would be impossible for him to become POTUS.

is this like paddie power or those UK agency/bookmakers that take bets on whether the next scion from the royal fam is gonna be a hermaphrodite?

strategy is just for marketing/publicity.

I will offer anyone 100-1. if you sign get the lawyers to do the contract, and pay upfront.

 

[blackcat]

Most covered sporting event in the world outside of maybe the Tour de France and the Olympics.

world cup?
I actually thought this was my post

 

[samFFC]

is this like paddie power or those UK agency/bookmakers that take bets on whether the next scion from the royal fam is gonna be a hermaphrodite?

strategy is just for marketing/publicity.

I will offer anyone 100-1. if you sign get the lawyers to do the contract, and pay upfront.

Apparently he thinks it could happen: http://pagesix.com/2013/10/18/schwarzenegger-mounting-legal-challenge-to-run-for-president/

But yes, most likely a marketing ploy.

 

[knife]

Certainly a chance - and that is a bit scary isn't it? Given they'd be a chance to win two terms, that would be 28 of 36 years!

Yep, really unhealthy. I've read that a lot of senior democrats are already trying to dissuade primary challengers against Clinton which is even worse.

For me presidential primaries seem to come down to name recongition and how much attention you get in the media, particularily in the early states where primary wins give you momentum. Having a difference that set you apart also helped you get that attention in the media. I remember following the parties primaries before 2008 and people would say that Obama being of african-american background would hurt his chances. I believe they only enhanced his chances because he wasn't a typical candidate. Every early media report spoke about Clinton and Obama and how they would be the first woman president or first african-american president ad nauseum. Little suprise it sent Obama's name recognition from frankly a nobody to national attention almost overnight.

On the republican side, McCain and to a much lesser extent Guilliani were the only two who I thought had real national prominence, and McCain carried that to the nomination. Huckabee had Chuck Norris and the religious wing. Romney just looked like he was laying the groundwork for further down the track. Paul cut out his own niche but was never a chance.
Come 2012 Romney carried that attention he got from the primaries 4 years earlier, to this one and was the frontrunner throughout. Santorum was a religious wing guy who took Huckabee's place. Paul grew his vote but again never looked like taking the nomination.

So for me, this time round from a very brief way out in advance look, I'd wager that Clinton and Warren (provided she runs) would be the frontrunners for the democratic nomination. That race would remind me a bit of Clinton v Obama, Clinton = status quo establishment centrist. Warren/Obama = relatively unknown, campaigning as a progressive populist, supposedly anti-war and different to what will likely be a bunch of white men governors/senators in their 50s. So she will have the media talking about her from the beginning.

I have no idea on the republican side, Christie is a popular governor and has good media exposure but so does Paul and lately Cruz and Perry (all publicity is good publicity). But 'popular governor' usually equates to 'not conservative enough' in republican primaries. If Kay Bailey Hutchinson was still in politics she would of been an interesting candidate. Still shocked that they chose Palin as VP candidate ahead of her (assuming KBH would of taken the nomination).
For the most part, I'd just like to see someone with a surname other than Clinton or Bush in the office, regardless of party.

 

[Palmer Stoat]

I'd be surprised if Warren ran. It apparently took a lot of cajoling to get her to run for the Senate. If that's the case, she'd be long odds to commit to a presidential run, especially when she's in a position on the Senate Banking committee to wield influence in her particular field of interest. Plus, it'd be a pretty quixotic bid for the nomination in the face of the Clinton machine (I know... 2008 and all -- but even so, she'd be looooooong odds of beating Hillary.)

 

[Black Flag]

clinton is far from invincible. challengers from her left will hopefully include alan greyson, bernie sanders or elizabeth warren. greyson in particular would be a formidable challenger imo.