2016 VRC Derby day - all races as per His Majesty IluvParis cracking it

Duritz

Scourge of Bookmakers
Joined
Oct 15, 2007
Posts
34,006
Likes
30,994
Location
PCO
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Thread starter #1
thoughts?

I am on Rocketeer at 60/1 after his maiden win so that's my barrack. I think he's a strong chance too, I have the race at Caulfield he ran 2nd in rating quite high. In fact I have his performance in that 0.5L better than Sacred Elixir's win, however speaking to some other ratings guys they have it the other way around.

Geelong cup form?

Smokeys?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Joined
Apr 1, 2005
Posts
26,218
Likes
18,048
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
#2
Thoughts? Perhaps change the thread title so it encompasses the whole day. Having a separate thread for each race will become a nightmare.

Have backed Swear his last two - think he should have won both - I'm jumping off now so he is a certainty.

Won't be taking anything out of Geelong.
 

thetradesman

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Sep 15, 2013
Posts
7,431
Likes
2,979
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Arsenal, Browns, Clips, Renegades
#6
Thought it was pretty ordinary myself on Saturday. I reckon the stable mate will beat it home.
Got knocked and checked about 4 times rounding the turn - But that is the problem, it always seems to get itself into trouble.
 

Gavin Excell

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Apr 22, 2007
Posts
25,634
Likes
25,938
Location
Bentleigh
AFL Club
Geelong
#8
Ive long thought the VRC Derby was a dog average race but the roll call of previous winners is actually quite ok Some cherry picking admittedly but last 30 years has names like:

Preferment, Polanski, Efficient, Elvestroem, Helenus, Arena, Nothin Leica Dane, Blevic, Mahogany.

Interesting some sires amongst that group

Still think race is too long for early season 3yos. The key reason why the AJC Derby is the premier version.
 

year of the cat

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Mar 27, 2006
Posts
16,311
Likes
17,471
Location
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
#10
Keen on We've Got This in the TAB 1200m race. Was on it last start when The Quarterback was too good. It was also caught on the wrong side of the track - with an outside barrier I expect it to be right in the finish again.
 

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Joined
Apr 1, 2005
Posts
26,218
Likes
18,048
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
#11
The winner eventually got out, Prized Icon didn't really.

I don't think SE wins the Derby.
PI gets out in plenty of time in the straight and finds very little - you'd be hard pressed to mount an argument as to how it reverses the form with the winner at Flemington.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jan 30, 2013
Posts
11,269
Likes
12,011
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
#12
also on rocketeer but not quite at 60's. last start was very good but he's been good (and overs) all preperation.

only concern is Mick Price didn't think he would stand up to get to the derby because he's built like a stick and he's been waiting for him to go sour in a long prep but he's at the grand final now so that shouldn't matter.

can put a line through most of the geelong meet incl cup last wednesday IMO.

not sure i can see any roughies on names and memory but i haven't done the form and Rocketeer stands out like dogs balls at 11's
 

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Joined
Apr 1, 2005
Posts
26,218
Likes
18,048
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
#13
also on rocketeer but not quite at 60's. last start was very good but he's been good (and overs) all preperation.

only concern is Mick Price didn't think he would stand up to get to the derby because he's built like a stick and he's been waiting for him to go sour in a long prep but he's at the grand final now so that shouldn't matter.

can put a line through most of the geelong meet incl cup last wednesday IMO.

not sure i can see any roughies on names and memory but i haven't done the form and Rocketeer stands out like dogs balls at 11's
Not sure if the price is still there but Swear at $11s looks even better overs than Rocketeer - far superior formlines and this has probably been a target.

As Liefs said Price thought Rocketeer was on fumes heading into Caulfield so hardly screams peak performance on Saturday.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jan 30, 2013
Posts
11,269
Likes
12,011
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
#14
Not sure if the price is still there but Swear at $11s looks even better overs than Rocketeer - far superior formlines and this has probably been a target.

As Liefs said Price thought Rocketeer was on fumes heading into Caulfield so hardly screams peak performance on Saturday.
If you want the A grade form say the wind affected his output and back Good standing. Spring Champion rated ok but not to level of Classic and was boxed finish with clearly best horse winning. Prized Icon was just as good in SC from memory and you've already thrown the brakes on him. At this stage I will be backing horses out of the classic but yet to finalise Saturday ratings and that looks form race #2 (vase) at this early point. Funnily enough same two form races as most years.
 

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Joined
Apr 1, 2005
Posts
26,218
Likes
18,048
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
#16
If you want the A grade form say the wind affected his output and back Good standing. Spring Champion rated ok but not to level of Classic and was boxed finish with clearly best horse winning. Prized Icon was just as good in SC from memory and you've already thrown the brakes on him. At this stage I will be backing horses out of the classic but yet to finalise Saturday ratings and that looks form race #2 (vase) at this early point. Funnily enough same two form races as most years.
I've thrown the brakes on PI because he was very average in the Vase and I am not very forgiving of bad runs. You failed to mention the SC winner went on to run third in the Cox Plate almost getting the better of Hartnell. Good Standing couldn't have got a softer lead in the history of racing in the Classic and was still one batting at the death. It was an awful race and for mine is the weakest of the major 3 lead ups by a couple of lengths with me. Swear's SC second rates at least a length higher than GS's Classic win.

I will be EXTREMELY surprised if Rocketeer beats Swear home in the Derby.
 

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Joined
Apr 1, 2005
Posts
26,218
Likes
18,048
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
#17
In a weakish year I will be including Tumultuous,has Syd 3yo form & was good at Geel.

Dan
I actually don't think its that weak this year - quite excited by Sacred Elixir and Swear, Yankee has just placed in a Cox Plate. I don't see this year as one where the Geelong form will stand up. Tumultuous needs a staggering amount of improvement to turn around the SC form for mine.
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#18
4 lengths from that world beating cox plate placegetting filly in spring champ looks ok at 20/1
no doubt at 2500 unlike plenty of these

Dan
 

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Joined
Apr 1, 2005
Posts
26,218
Likes
18,048
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
#19
4 lengths from that world beating cox plate placegetting filly in spring champ looks ok at 20/1
no doubt at 2500 unlike plenty of these

Dan
Except there is a horse who finished 3 lengths ahead of him that will also be in the race. If he was so good at 2500 I'd expect him to beat the C graders last start.
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Joined
Aug 15, 2001
Posts
7,006
Likes
1,336
Location
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
#20
Except there is a horse who finished 3 lengths ahead of him that will also be in the race. If he was so good at 2500 I'd expect him to beat the C graders last start.
Last start wasnt 2500 though.
If it was,he would have won by a fair way & wouldnt be 20/1.
Guess thats why they let us bet on it

Dan
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jan 30, 2013
Posts
11,269
Likes
12,011
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
#23
Thoughts on Inference? Came home as well as anything at Caulfield.
first 4 all look pretty good staying prospects IMO. could convince me on any one of them.

I've thrown the brakes on PI because he was very average in the Vase and I am not very forgiving of bad runs. You failed to mention the SC winner went on to run third in the Cox Plate almost getting the better of Hartnell. Good Standing couldn't have got a softer lead in the history of racing in the Classic and was still one batting at the death. It was an awful race and for mine is the weakest of the major 3 lead ups by a couple of lengths with me. Swear's SC second rates at least a length higher than GS's Classic win.

I will be EXTREMELY surprised if Rocketeer beats Swear home in the Derby.
would have been softer without that wind though

race to race 200m splits between them and the fillies make for interesting reading. Good Standing would have been running away from the fillies in the last 200 despite fillies conserving more energy early. he had that wind assistance but his last 200 was sound for the distance and being on speed punching the breeze IMO.

again i haven't finished the vase but to last friday i think the fastest horses are in the Classic and i think the horses that will relish the 2500 the most are also in the Classic.
 

iluvparis

Premium Platinum
Joined
Apr 1, 2005
Posts
26,218
Likes
18,048
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Calgary Flames, Man Utd
#24
At their best I'd back Sacred Elixir to beat Good Standing over any distance (aware GS beat him home just in the Guineas but SE didn't seem to appreciate the blinkers).

The Classic was a complete skunk of a race - putting a line through it.
 

FallingLiefs

Brownlow Medallist
Joined
Jan 30, 2013
Posts
11,269
Likes
12,011
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
#25
At their best I'd back Sacred Elixir to beat Good Standing over any distance (aware GS beat him home just in the Guineas but SE didn't seem to appreciate the blinkers).

The Classic was a complete skunk of a race - putting a line through it.
was good standings first time around caulfield caught wide copping the brunt of the camber with no rail. #noexcuses
 
Top Bottom