2016 VRC Derby day - all races as per His Majesty IluvParis cracking it

Oct 15, 2007
33,996
31,537
PCO
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
thoughts?

I am on Rocketeer at 60/1 after his maiden win so that's my barrack. I think he's a strong chance too, I have the race at Caulfield he ran 2nd in rating quite high. In fact I have his performance in that 0.5L better than Sacred Elixir's win, however speaking to some other ratings guys they have it the other way around.

Geelong cup form?

Smokeys?
 
Thoughts? Perhaps change the thread title so it encompasses the whole day. Having a separate thread for each race will become a nightmare.

Have backed Swear his last two - think he should have won both - I'm jumping off now so he is a certainty.

Won't be taking anything out of Geelong.
 

thetradesman

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 15, 2013
7,503
3,165
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Arsenal, Browns, Clips, Renegades
Ahh Prized Icon, If it doesn't find it's way into trouble it will win or go almighty close.
 
Ahh Prized Icon, If it doesn't find it's way into trouble it will win or go almighty close.

Thought it was pretty ordinary myself on Saturday. I reckon the stable mate will beat it home.
 

thetradesman

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 15, 2013
7,503
3,165
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Arsenal, Browns, Clips, Renegades
Thought it was pretty ordinary myself on Saturday. I reckon the stable mate will beat it home.

Got knocked and checked about 4 times rounding the turn - But that is the problem, it always seems to get itself into trouble.
 
Apr 22, 2007
42,065
50,206
Bentleigh
AFL Club
Geelong
Ive long thought the VRC Derby was a dog average race but the roll call of previous winners is actually quite ok Some cherry picking admittedly but last 30 years has names like:

Preferment, Polanski, Efficient, Elvestroem, Helenus, Arena, Nothin Leica Dane, Blevic, Mahogany.

Interesting some sires amongst that group

Still think race is too long for early season 3yos. The key reason why the AJC Derby is the premier version.
 
The winner eventually got out, Prized Icon didn't really.

I don't think SE wins the Derby.

PI gets out in plenty of time in the straight and finds very little - you'd be hard pressed to mount an argument as to how it reverses the form with the winner at Flemington.
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
also on rocketeer but not quite at 60's. last start was very good but he's been good (and overs) all preperation.

only concern is Mick Price didn't think he would stand up to get to the derby because he's built like a stick and he's been waiting for him to go sour in a long prep but he's at the grand final now so that shouldn't matter.

can put a line through most of the geelong meet incl cup last wednesday IMO.

not sure i can see any roughies on names and memory but i haven't done the form and Rocketeer stands out like dogs balls at 11's
 
also on rocketeer but not quite at 60's. last start was very good but he's been good (and overs) all preperation.

only concern is Mick Price didn't think he would stand up to get to the derby because he's built like a stick and he's been waiting for him to go sour in a long prep but he's at the grand final now so that shouldn't matter.

can put a line through most of the geelong meet incl cup last wednesday IMO.

not sure i can see any roughies on names and memory but i haven't done the form and Rocketeer stands out like dogs balls at 11's

Not sure if the price is still there but Swear at $11s looks even better overs than Rocketeer - far superior formlines and this has probably been a target.

As Liefs said Price thought Rocketeer was on fumes heading into Caulfield so hardly screams peak performance on Saturday.
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Not sure if the price is still there but Swear at $11s looks even better overs than Rocketeer - far superior formlines and this has probably been a target.

As Liefs said Price thought Rocketeer was on fumes heading into Caulfield so hardly screams peak performance on Saturday.

If you want the A grade form say the wind affected his output and back Good standing. Spring Champion rated ok but not to level of Classic and was boxed finish with clearly best horse winning. Prized Icon was just as good in SC from memory and you've already thrown the brakes on him. At this stage I will be backing horses out of the classic but yet to finalise Saturday ratings and that looks form race #2 (vase) at this early point. Funnily enough same two form races as most years.
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 15, 2001
7,002
1,373
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
In a weakish year I will be including Tumultuous,has Syd 3yo form & was good at Geel.

Dan
 
If you want the A grade form say the wind affected his output and back Good standing. Spring Champion rated ok but not to level of Classic and was boxed finish with clearly best horse winning. Prized Icon was just as good in SC from memory and you've already thrown the brakes on him. At this stage I will be backing horses out of the classic but yet to finalise Saturday ratings and that looks form race #2 (vase) at this early point. Funnily enough same two form races as most years.

I've thrown the brakes on PI because he was very average in the Vase and I am not very forgiving of bad runs. You failed to mention the SC winner went on to run third in the Cox Plate almost getting the better of Hartnell. Good Standing couldn't have got a softer lead in the history of racing in the Classic and was still one batting at the death. It was an awful race and for mine is the weakest of the major 3 lead ups by a couple of lengths with me. Swear's SC second rates at least a length higher than GS's Classic win.

I will be EXTREMELY surprised if Rocketeer beats Swear home in the Derby.
 
In a weakish year I will be including Tumultuous,has Syd 3yo form & was good at Geel.

Dan

I actually don't think its that weak this year - quite excited by Sacred Elixir and Swear, Yankee has just placed in a Cox Plate. I don't see this year as one where the Geelong form will stand up. Tumultuous needs a staggering amount of improvement to turn around the SC form for mine.
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 15, 2001
7,002
1,373
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
4 lengths from that world beating cox plate placegetting filly in spring champ looks ok at 20/1
no doubt at 2500 unlike plenty of these

Dan
 
4 lengths from that world beating cox plate placegetting filly in spring champ looks ok at 20/1
no doubt at 2500 unlike plenty of these

Dan

Except there is a horse who finished 3 lengths ahead of him that will also be in the race. If he was so good at 2500 I'd expect him to beat the C graders last start.
 

sethlad

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 15, 2001
7,002
1,373
melb
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Derby County FC
Except there is a horse who finished 3 lengths ahead of him that will also be in the race. If he was so good at 2500 I'd expect him to beat the C graders last start.

Last start wasnt 2500 though.
If it was,he would have won by a fair way & wouldnt be 20/1.
Guess thats why they let us bet on it

Dan
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Thoughts on Inference? Came home as well as anything at Caulfield.

first 4 all look pretty good staying prospects IMO. could convince me on any one of them.

I've thrown the brakes on PI because he was very average in the Vase and I am not very forgiving of bad runs. You failed to mention the SC winner went on to run third in the Cox Plate almost getting the better of Hartnell. Good Standing couldn't have got a softer lead in the history of racing in the Classic and was still one batting at the death. It was an awful race and for mine is the weakest of the major 3 lead ups by a couple of lengths with me. Swear's SC second rates at least a length higher than GS's Classic win.

I will be EXTREMELY surprised if Rocketeer beats Swear home in the Derby.

would have been softer without that wind though

race to race 200m splits between them and the fillies make for interesting reading. Good Standing would have been running away from the fillies in the last 200 despite fillies conserving more energy early. he had that wind assistance but his last 200 was sound for the distance and being on speed punching the breeze IMO.

again i haven't finished the vase but to last friday i think the fastest horses are in the Classic and i think the horses that will relish the 2500 the most are also in the Classic.
 
At their best I'd back Sacred Elixir to beat Good Standing over any distance (aware GS beat him home just in the Guineas but SE didn't seem to appreciate the blinkers).

The Classic was a complete skunk of a race - putting a line through it.
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
At their best I'd back Sacred Elixir to beat Good Standing over any distance (aware GS beat him home just in the Guineas but SE didn't seem to appreciate the blinkers).

The Classic was a complete skunk of a race - putting a line through it.

was good standings first time around caulfield caught wide copping the brunt of the camber with no rail. #noexcuses
 
Back