AusKick participation grew 18% last year, and there's no more AusKickers in NSW than there is in any other state in Australia.
Even beyond a year or two away, when this "Auskick generation" of those aged 5-12, are aged 20-27 in 15 years time, and they've been rusted on footy fans for virtually their entire childhood, GWS should be able to consistently get 20,000+ crowds. Advertising to children can get a fan for life, and it's through investment in participation that it'll reap the rewards.
It seems like GWS's floor is about 10k now, which is a good floor to start from. Of course GWS is having success now, but year-on-year growth should outpace any drop from missing finals.
IMO football in NSW is as strong as anytime in the history of the game in that state, North, South, East and West.
There are some big population pockets that need plenty of work though IMO, Southern Suburbs of Sydney, Central Coast and Wollongong.
There has been good growth in the Western and SW suburbs of Sydney and Newcastle in general, the NW, Eastern, Northern beaches and inner Western suburbs of Sydney have all had pretty good growth spurts some from a decent base to start with.
The Swans have provided an impetus for the North coast of NSW, which has grown it s senior and junior comps although off a low base.
The Southern Suburbs of Sydney ( st george and Cronulla areas ) are by far the weakest part of Sydney football and interestingly a spot the A league has been talking about planting its 3rd Sydney team.
There is a clear geographical divide between southern and SW suburbs in Sydney, there might even be a national park between them.