AFL 2017 - AFL Brownlow Medal

[YahBoyJones]

Gday guys, do one of you want to send me a full spreadsheet of this prediction? I'm doing a mega spreadsheet at the end of the year with about 7 predictions which I will produce into 1. I'll also post it on my page AFL Banter and give you's credit for it!

 

[Watts4Dinner]

 

[X_box_X]

Gday guys, do one of you want to send me a full spreadsheet of this prediction? I'm doing a mega spreadsheet at the end of the year with about 7 predictions which I will produce into 1. I'll also post it on my page AFL Banter and give you's credit for it!

So that credit you're referring to. Do we just message you our bank account details? How much credit are we talkin?

 

[Watts4Dinner]

So that credit you're referring to. Do we just message you our bank account details? How much credit are we talkin?

e-credit. That's worth more to you than money, surely.

 

[X_box_X]

e-credit. That's worth more to you than money, surely.

Where do I sign up?

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ROUND 20

GEEL v SYD
3 L Parker (Syd)
2 K Jack (Syd)
1 M Duncan (Geel)

GWS v MELB
3 J Kelly (GWS)
2 C Ward (GWS)
1 S Mumford (GWS)

ESS v CARL
3 D Heppell (Ess)
2 M Kreuzer (Carl)
1 M Hurley (Ess)

BRIS v WB
3 M Bontempelli (WB)
2 J Macrae (WB)
1 D Zorko (Bris)

FREO v GC
3 L Neale (Freo)
2 N Fyfe (Freo)
1 L Ryan (Freo)

NM v COLL
3 T Adams (Coll)
2 A Treloar (Coll)
1 B Grundy (Coll)

ST K v WCE
3 J Steele (St K)
2 J Kennedy (WCE)
1 B Longer (St K)

RICH v HAW
3 J Caddy (Rich)
2 D Prestia (Rich)
1 D Martin (Rich)

ADEL v PA
3 S Jacobs (Adel)
2 T Walker (Adel)
1 R Sloane (Adel)

LEADERBOARD

34 D Martin (Rich)
31 P Dangerfield (Geel)*
27 T Mitchell (Haw), M Bontempelli (WB)
26 R Sloane (Adel)
23 Z Merrett (Ess), J Kelly (GWS)

 

[iluvparis]

I chucked $25 on T.Mitchell at $51 at the start of the year with the hope of being able to cash out down the track for a nice little profit, the only problem being that i cant cash out because i it on before the season started. Not real happy about it considering i should be able to cash out for atleast a couple of hundred considering hes now paying $5 and i got him at $51.

Now i just need Dusty to do something silly and get a week and then i might be in with a chance. Although ill keep pestering them for a manual cash out, they might actually do it now that hesa chance of winning.

Lay him on Betfair

 

[big_bazza]

Lay him on Betfair

What do you mean mate?

 

[iluvparis]

What do you mean mate?

On Betfair you can bet against Mitchell to win the brownlow - so you use that to hedge against your current bet

 

[Consolaçao]

I chucked $25 on T.Mitchell at $51 at the start of the year with the hope of being able to cash out down the track for a nice little profit, the only problem being that i cant cash out because i it on before the season started. Not real happy about it considering i should be able to cash out for atleast a couple of hundred considering hes now paying $5 and i got him at $51.

Now i just need Dusty to do something silly and get a week and then i might be in with a chance. Although ill keep pestering them for a manual cash out, they might actually do it now that hesa chance of winning.

Cash out's for mugs. You end up getting stung by the bookie twice. Betfair is your friend.

 

[big_bazza]

On Betfair you can bet against Mitchell to win the brownlow - so you use that to hedge against your current bet

Oh i get ya mate, well i think we all know hes not going to win it. i only put the bet on because i knew his odds would come in alot from $51 an i could cash out, I just need dusty to do something silly this week or next.

i might get back on sportsbet live chat and whinge a bit more, im sure if i talked to the right person there, theyd be able to offer me some sort of cash out.

 

[X_box_X]

Oh i get ya mate, well i think we all know hes not going to win it. i only put the bet on because i knew his odds would come in alot from $51 an i could cash out, I just need dusty to do something silly this week or next.

i might get back on sportsbet live chat and whinge a bit more, im sure if i talked to the right person there, theyd be able to offer me some sort of cash out.

Hold on. Weren't you just given advice on Betfair to lay him? Why are you still considering cashing out. Do you not want to pocket extra money?

Spoiler

Some people, I tell ya.

 

[Jugada]

Maybe he doesn't have a grand sitting around to put into betfair to lay him with? Plus there isn't that much liquidity in the market right now anyway

 

[big_bazza]

Hold on. Weren't you just given advice on Betfair to lay him? Why are you still considering cashing out. Do you not want to pocket extra money?

Spoiler

Some people, I tell ya.

Because i put the bet on to cash out more than i put on, the bet as it is is useless to me as he wont win, but with his coming into $5.50 from the $51 that i got him at i should be able to cash out for atleast a few hundred.

Not sure what your on about you silly campaigner.

 

[X_box_X]

Because i put the bet on to cash out more than i put on, the bet as it is is useless to me as he wont win, but with his coming into $5.50 from the $51 that i got him at i should be able to cash out for atleast a few hundred.

Not sure what your on about you silly campaigner.

Mate, please. You were given the best possible advice and you continue to talk about cashing out.

You are going to do yourself plenty of favours by laying Mitchell with Betfair. You are doing yourself no favours by cashing at on Sportsbet. Do you not understand that your overall guaranteed profit will be much higher by laying Mitchell on Betfair, rather than cashing out on Sportsbet?

We are only trying to help you maximise your profit.

 

[big_bazza]

Mate, please. You were given the best possible advice and you continue to talk about cashing out.

You are going to do yourself plenty of favours by laying Mitchell with Betfair. You are doing yourself no favours by cashing at on Sportsbet. Do you not understand that your overall guaranteed profit will be much higher by laying Mitchell on Betfair, rather than cashing out on Sportsbet?

We are only trying to help you maximise your profit.

i understand what your saying mate, i had a look on betfair earlier and not sure how the odds worked for a lay. for Mitchell it had

5 7.2 8.4 8.4
$42 $35 $84 $49

with the 7.2 being in back all and 8.4 lay all.

What does all that mean, is there not just a market for T.mitchell not to win the brownlow?

 

[X_box_X]

i understand what your saying mate, i had a look on betfair earlier and not sure how the odds worked for a lay. for Mitchell it had

5 7.2 8.4 8.4
$42 $35 $84 $49

with the 7.2 being in back all and 8.4 lay all.

What does all that mean, is there not just a market for T.mitchell not to win the brownlow?

You stand to win $1250 at the moment.

The best odds I can find on Mitchell to win the Brownlow is $6 (Topsport).

This is what I'd do in your position.

Request a lay bet on Betfair at $6.20 for a stake of $200. To achieve this you will need to deposit $1040 into your account. If Mitchell wins the Brownlow, $1040 is the amount you will lose on Betfair. Your return on Sportsbet will be $1275. Overall your profit will be $210.

If Mitchell doesn't win the Brownlow, the $1040 you have deposited into Betfair will turn into $1230 (after 5% commission on your $200 stake). Your overall profit will be $165 (when you factor in the $190 profit with Betfair and your $25 stake with Sportsbet).

You may or may not be matched. You may get some of your stake matched. There's not a whole lot of liquidity but you're likely to get a bite by offering $6.20.

You can also run the risk of getting matched at a lower price so you could even consider offering odds of $5.50 and see if you can get matched at that price, which will increase your profit further.

 

[54Dogs]

Also a good time to get matched while Mitchell is playing, and playing well

 

[big_bazza]

You stand to win $1250 at the moment.

The best odds I can find on Mitchell to win the Brownlow is $6 (Topsport).

This is what I'd do in your position.

Request a lay bet on Betfair at $6.20 for a stake of $200. To achieve this you will need to deposit $1040 into your account. If Mitchell wins the Brownlow, $1040 is the amount you will lose on Betfair. Your return on Sportsbet will be $1275. Overall your profit will be $210.

If Mitchell doesn't win the Brownlow, the $1040 you have deposited into Betfair will turn into $1230 (after 5% commission on your $200 stake). Your overall profit will be $165 (when you factor in the $190 profit with Betfair and your $25 stake with Sportsbet).

You may or may not be matched. You may get some of your stake matched. There's not a whole lot of liquidity but you're likely to get a bite by offering $6.20.

You can also run the risk of getting matched at a lower price so you could even consider offering odds of $5.50 and see if you can get matched at that price, which will increase your profit further.

Thanks for that mate, i dont really understand the whole lay bet, getting matched thing on betfair. How does it all work in laymans terms?

 

[X_box_X]

Thanks for that mate, i dont really understand the whole lay bet, getting matched thing on betfair. How does it all work in laymans terms?

You become the bookmaker. Betfair is an exchange. It allows you to back something (as you normally would), and allows you to lay something.

When you placed a $25 stake on Mitchell at $51 to win the Brownlow with Sportsbet, basically what Sportsbet did was lay Mitchell for $25 at $51. This gives Sportsbet an instant $25 but they risk paying you out $1275 (liability of $1250).

Being an exchange, Betfair affords you with the opportunity to become the bookmaker. You get to offer your own odds when you lay something. Just like Sportsbet offers odds on a market, you get to offer your own odds.

Someone then has to come along and place a bet (by backing Mitchell) at the odds you offered. There is every chance the odds you offer won't be matched, but at the same time there is also every chance that odds Sportsbet offer also won't be matched.

By laying Mitchell for $200 at $6.20, someone may decide they want to back Mitchell at $6.20, so they may place a $10 bet on that. What that means for you is that $10 of your $200 stake has been matched, meaning you still have $190 unmatched. If that $190 remains unmatched, the $988 of liability that remains will be returned to your Betfair account.

What happens if you and I both lay Mictchell at $6.20? What happens to that $10 bet someone had on him? Simply, whoever offered the odds of $6.20 first will be matched. I.e. if you offer those odds at 5:06PM and I offer them at 5:07PM and $6.20 are the best odds at that point in time, and no one else besides us has offered those $6.20 odds, it means you are first in line (your entire $200 stake), and I am next in line. So if we both lay him for $200 at $6.20, that means there is $400 available to be matched by someone at the odds of $6.20. If someone then has $300 on him at $6.20, your entire $200 will be matched, and $100 of my stake will be matched.

It's a pretty cool concept and works well for future bets (like the Brownlow). The only thing is you will have to pay 5% commission on your winnings. I.e. if Mitchell doesn't win the Brownlow, you will receive $190 of the $200 stake.

I strongly encourage you to research more about lay betting. Setting your own odds will potentially be a much better option for you than cashing out.

 

[foxy_dal]

TAB taking multis on most team votes already.

 

[demon_fanatic]

What does the count guy on here have Zorko on as opposed to beams.. did a Zorko tom Mitchell most votes start of year at great odds but Zorko is dying off

 

[adammania9]

Mitchell is only a Martin fine away from the Brownlow - I wouldn't cash out yet

 

[big_bazza]

Mitchell is only a Martin fine away from the Brownlow - I wouldn't cash out yet

Yeah mate thats what im hoping for, fingers crossed opposition players wind him up over the next 2 weeks and try and bait him into doing something silly.

 

[big_bazza]

You become the bookmaker. Betfair is an exchange. It allows you to back something (as you normally would), and allows you to lay something.

When you placed a $25 stake on Mitchell at $51 to win the Brownlow with Sportsbet, basically what Sportsbet did was lay Mitchell for $25 at $51. This gives Sportsbet an instant $25 but they risk paying you out $1275 (liability of $1250).

Being an exchange, Betfair affords you with the opportunity to become the bookmaker. You get to offer your own odds when you lay something. Just like Sportsbet offers odds on a market, you get to offer your own odds.

Someone then has to come along and place a bet (by backing Mitchell) at the odds you offered. There is every chance the odds you offer won't be matched, but at the same time there is also every chance that odds Sportsbet offer also won't be matched.

By laying Mitchell for $200 at $6.20, someone may decide they want to back Mitchell at $6.20, so they may place a $10 bet on that. What that means for you is that $10 of your $200 stake has been matched, meaning you still have $190 unmatched. If that $190 remains unmatched, the $988 of liability that remains will be returned to your Betfair account.

What happens if you and I both lay Mictchell at $6.20? What happens to that $10 bet someone had on him? Simply, whoever offered the odds of $6.20 first will be matched. I.e. if you offer those odds at 5:06PM and I offer them at 5:07PM and $6.20 are the best odds at that point in time, and no one else besides us has offered those $6.20 odds, it means you are first in line (your entire $200 stake), and I am next in line. So if we both lay him for $200 at $6.20, that means there is $400 available to be matched by someone at the odds of $6.20. If someone then has $300 on him at $6.20, your entire $200 will be matched, and $100 of my stake will be matched.

It's a pretty cool concept and works well for future bets (like the Brownlow). The only thing is you will have to pay 5% commission on your winnings. I.e. if Mitchell doesn't win the Brownlow, you will receive $190 of the $200 stake.

I strongly encourage you to research more about lay betting. Setting your own odds will potentially be a much better option for you than cashing out.

Right on thanks very much mate, thats a lot to get my head around. Ill do a bit of reading later and see if it worth me juming on betfair. Thanks again legend