iluvparis
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AFL 2017 - AFL Finals Week2
- Thread starter balmainforever
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Macpotata
Norm Smith Medallist
- Mar 22, 2017
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I do mate. Because as the saying goes, it's all about strategy, keeping and maintaining a system through good and bad. If you can't do it with $100, what chance do you have with a higher amount.
Keep your composure and execute a GAMEPLAN. Do it like a pro.
Must be the first time ever a top 4 losing team is above $3 to win a semi final at home against a bottom four interstate team. Geelong is currently $3.45 on betfair. I think Sydney will win. Therefore no price is good if they are going to lose anyway. Just interesting.
I don't mind Geelong at those juicy odds. They'll be pumped up after dishing up a disgraceful performance against Richmond. Worth a few dollars IMO. I can't see their odds staying at the $3 mark so I got on early. Hoping for the 24 points up scenario
I think Geelong will get hammered. They haven't got near Sydney lately. Will be very similar to last week and the Prelim last year where Sydney dominate early, 6+ goals up at halftime then just go through the motions in the second half. I can see it being a bit of a non event. The other game will probably be closer.
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Jesus Christ.
HumanMeatball
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Any particular sports/ markets that are good to bet on?
Sabbathen
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If you mean which markets have the least amount of bookmaker edge, then go for H2H and line markets.
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Unconfirmed Preliminary Finals.
Adelaide $1.35
Geelong $3.14
Adelaide $1.75
Sydney $2.05
Richmond $1.57
GWS $2.35
Richmond $1.33
WCE $3.25
Adelaide $1.35
Geelong $3.14
Adelaide $1.75
Sydney $2.05
Richmond $1.57
GWS $2.35
Richmond $1.33
WCE $3.25
BoxMatrix
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West Coast solid value at $3 on sportsbet. With Cameron and Mumford out, that's not bad odds.
Macpotata
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What worked for me was MLS soccer total goals over 1.5. I multi'd them into two and cleaned up not long ago. I made a thread about it. Since then this has occurred.
match day had ten games
6 of the ten games went over 2.5 goals, and 7 went over 1.5 goals.
the next match day
6 of the 10 went over 2.5 and 8 of the 10 went over 1.5 goals
the next match day
8 of the 10 went over 2.5 and 9 went over 1.5 goals
next match day
7 of the 10 over 2.5 goals and 8 over 1.5 goals
next match day
5 over 2.5 and 7 games over 1.5 goals
next match day
6 over 2.5 goals, 8 over 1.5 goals
next match day
6 over 2.5 goals and 9 over 1.5 goals
next match day
8 matches over 2.5 goals, 9 over 1.5 goals
next match day
4 of the 12 over 2.5 goals, 9 of the 12 over 1.5 goals
Of course you can bet the ones that have less than a goal and get unlucky, especially if you multi. But most of the time you can make good money on this. Whether it still continues is another story. But if you go back into my thread when it was made, and look at all these games I mentioned here after, you will see a staggering amount of goals being scored. Short odds yes, but high probability of striking. People will argue against this, but at the end of the day winning is winning. You can still do your ass betting $2.00 games. You have to win period. People will come back again and say you have to win x amount to make a profit betting the odds I got for MLS or soccer games total goals, and yes you will do better if you're winning on your $2 games, but you still have to win period. No good betting on anything if your strike rate is shit. Unless you're getting extremely lucky or striking the big odds.
over 1.5 goals hit 77 times in the last 92 games. Once again go back and add that with the last thread I made. Staggering amount. 56 games of the 92 went over 2.5 goals. I took the lower goals because it's easier to hit and as you can see it comes in more.
In any case, that is just one thing that worked FOR me. But this method can be applied to other leagues where there are goals. The trend has continued since I posted, you have to ride the ship while it's sailing full steam ahead when you can.
soccer has worked for me. You have to find what works for you. We you have knowledge, stats, an edge, gut feel, odds that you like and probability. Soccer isn't really a good sport to bet on h2h because of the draw factor. It goes three ways. But if you know your game, do the math, have good intuition you can succeed. But for most this doesn't work. That's why I take the total goals because it takes out the win-draw-loss factor. Goals get scored in soccer.
To answer your question, the best thing to do is take games h2h. As for what sports, I can't answer that for you. That is why you do the $100 bank roll and go with the 1-2 unit bets. You will get a good feel for it and you won't piss away your bank roll.
The key is to not get emotional, and be disciplined.
Macpotata
Norm Smith Medallist
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no bud, that's too many games/bets to select.
Macpotata
Norm Smith Medallist
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I agree. Even taking them around $1.50 whatever head start you get at that price.
HumanMeatball
Brownlow Medallist
So I had a look and there are 7 upcoming games. How many would you usually include in a multi in this circumstance
Macpotata
Norm Smith Medallist
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Bet at your own discretion son. What works for some might not work for others. I'd only go 2 legs max, two multi's max. That is all. Hypothetically speaking if you won one or two and liked what was coming up you could play a further game just by itself, or take a single game, which is what you could do anyway over 2.5, rather than the 1.5. I like the safe option though, unless I was really feeling it.
Easy to say now but I did do it, for example on the weekend you had City playing Liverpool. City are a goal scoring team, particularly at home. Liverpool has good offense too, therefore imo in this scenario the over 2.5 was a solid play. I certainly liked the over 1.5, which was around $1.14 to $1.17. But because I believed in it and for the reasons I mentioned, I fancied the over 2.5 by itself. I thought it was a great bet. The game finished 5-0 City. Pool was coming off a 4-0 trouncing against Arsenal, City leaving it late to win 2-1 at Bournemouth. The point I'm making is they both have goals in them. So if two teams with good attack are playing each other, the over, usually, is good to hit. The odds and probability are in your favour. Now that doesn't always equate to winning, as it can obviously be a stalemate 0-0 draw, a 1 or 2-0 or a 1-1 draw. But again the odds are in your favour. So if over 2.5 should hit, 1.5 is a good play although low odds. If you want to build up your bankroll, just go one game. Or you can play two in a multi. Stay disciplined though. Rough spots hit like anywhere when you punt. Furthermore, this concept can be applied if you have a good team playing a shit team { not that Pool are shit } Odds will be lower for reasons I mentioned for the over like City vs Pool was. Over 2.5 was around $1.50, when normally you'd get around $1.65 for over 2.5 when it's still fancied it will occur.
Last night Deportivo was home to Real Sociedad in Spain. The over 2.5 was paying $1.85, I fancied that. So the over 1.5 would have been at least $1.25 by itself. It was 2-0 after 4 minutes. it was 2-1 at haf time and finished 4-2 to Sociedad after they surrendered their initial 2-0 lead. Beautiful when you win the game in the opening minutes/half. Conversely when it finishes 0-0 or you lose after some campaigner misses an open goal or a penalty at the death, you feel like smashing your tv in. That's when you have to maintain your composure and not bet on the next thing that moves
In the instance above, the over 2.5 wasn't that solid. But that's good when you take over 1.5 goals, because rather than get $1.15 - $1.20 odds, you're getting $1.25 odds at least and up to $1.35 etc. Costa Rica vs Mexico CONCACAAF world cup qualifying mid week was expected to go under. The over 2.5 was around $2.44. Therefore over 1.5 the odds were $1.55, In my mind I liked the chances of over 1.5 occurring because I believed they at least had a goal in them. It finished 1-1.
Toronto have been red hot in the MLS and are a goal scoring machine both home and away. High powered offense with Altidore and Giovinco, solid in midfield with Michael Bradley. Finished runner up last season to dallas losin on penalties. I think they'll go all the way this season and smacked someone 4-0 yesterday. Teams like them, Red Bulls, Sometimes New York City when they're at home are good for this tool. Look for the teams with high powered offense and multi together or play it by itself. Don't get greedy though. All this aside you could still pick and choose the wrong game, or multi and lose by the extra leg where others win etc. Again it worked for me but doesn't work for everyone. Luck comes into it too. If I continued with the method I applied I feel I could have made a lot more money. But I made my cash and I walked away. I didn't get greedy, walked away on top but also could not be ****ed to be honest. I don't regret it though, because I don't have stress. Balance is essential my friend
For the best success in the long term though, you want to bet on one game. The more you add, higher chances are you will lose.
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No price is good? You wouldn't back Geelong at $101? What about $11?
God, Richmond have been gifted a Grand Final. GWS falling apart or the Eagles. What a time to be alive.
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Gaff most disposals in finals at $41 w Tattsbet.
Good value. He is $11 w TAB, $21 w Topsport and $26 w Crownbet.
I have a feeling about the Eagles. I reckon they are a good chance to upset GWS, and it wouldn't surprise me if they also defeat Richmond.
Good value. He is $11 w TAB, $21 w Topsport and $26 w Crownbet.
I have a feeling about the Eagles. I reckon they are a good chance to upset GWS, and it wouldn't surprise me if they also defeat Richmond.
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Don't recall the umpires being the ones spraying set shots in 2015 when you completely shit the bed. Or the fact you're 3-6 at the MCG with Simpson playing mostly lower tier teams. I guess the umpires got you all those times too. If somehow get past GWS you will be utterly embarrassed by Richmond. Blaming umpires is pathetic when you get the run you do at home.
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Macpotata
Norm Smith Medallist
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What I said stands. We are better of facing another interstate team. Yes we get a leg up at subi, and yes we cop it else where.
Made good money backing against WC at the MCG. Check the thread for the round we played Richmond, went WC unders on their score, posted it up.
Certainly sweet knocking Melbourne out of the eight, pathetic team.
Yes I would take odds far above a teams realistic chances in a match. But as a general rule I only bet on a result I think has a reasonable chance of actually happening. I am not going to make a bet that I will think will lose just because it is 'value'. In other words a team must have at least a 45% chance of winning for me to take them. Currently I would say Geelong is a 35% chance in this match.