AFL 2017 AFL Futures

[Jugada]

And two of those were Ablett and Judd - trading opportunity at best for mine

Carlton finished 8th when Judd won i think. I was talking about Priddis

To be honest hate the bet because Brisbane are going to be bottom 2 and Rockliff is no superstar but fringe teams outside the 8 can find a winner sometimes

 

[jefffff34]

Am on Shiel for the Brownlow ($81) into Will Brodie for Rising Star ($13)

 

[Jugada]

Am on Shiel for the Brownlow ($81) into Will Brodie for Rising Star ($13)

Don't mind Shiel at $81

 

[Watto_22]

thoughts on these prices for All Australian:
Sam Docherty - $9 (TAB)
Tom MacDonald - $17 (TAB)
Dane Rampe - $8 (WH)
Eddie Betts - $4 (WH)
Cyril Rioli - $4.50 (TAB and WH)

Sportsbet now have AA markets up:
Max Gawn at $2.50 is pretty tasty

Sportsbet and Crownbet also have top team goalscorer, with SB generally having better odds for heavy favourites. Do you think any of the following are value (all were much shorter with Crown):
Tom Hawkins $1.65
Joe Daniher $1.70
Jack Riewoldt $1.30
Tom Lynch (GC) $1.30
Jesse Hogan $1.65

Also Sportsbet have Tim Membrey $3.25 for Most Goals (he's 1.90 at Crown) - super value I reckon for a guy who kicked their most last year (44 goals in only 17 games).
main opposition is Josh Bruce, who won in 2015 with 50 goals but only had 38 last year;
also Riewoldt, who won in 2013 (50 goals) and 2014 (49) and had 41 last year - surely he doesn't kick more than that in 2017 due to a more midfield/wing role

 

[X_box_X]

thoughts on these prices for All Australian:
Sam Docherty - $9 (TAB)
Tom MacDonald - $17 (TAB)
Dane Rampe - $8 (WH)
Eddie Betts - $4 (WH)
Cyril Rioli - $4.50 (TAB and WH)

anyone know if sites other than TAB & WH (will) put up markets for All Australian?

tab DON'T APPEAR TO HAVE THIS MARKET ANYMORE.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Sportsbet now have AA markets up:
Max Gawn at $2.50 is pretty tasty

Sportsbet and Crownbet also have top team goalscorer, with SB generally having better odds for heavy favourites. Do you think any of the following are value (all were much shorter with Crown):
Tom Hawkins $1.65
Joe Daniher $1.70
Jack Riewoldt $1.30
Tom Lynch (GC) $1.30
Jesse Hogan $1.65

Also Sportsbet have Tim Membrey $3.25 for Most Goals (he's 1.90 at Crown) - super value I reckon for a guy who kicked their most last year (44 goals in only 17 games).
main opposition is Josh Bruce, who won in 2015 with 50 goals but only had 38 last year;
also Riewoldt, who won in 2013 (50 goals) and 2014 (49) and had 41 last year - surely he doesn't kick more than that in 2017 due to a more midfield/wing role

Maxy Gawn 2.50 yes please. No Nic Nat and Kangs won't be winning many games to help Toddy's cause not to mention very nigly. New ruck rule also helps.

 

[chrisdon16]

GWS to win the flag market is the highest you'll see it for the next 3 years I'm guessing

 

[Pres]

GWS to win the flag market is the highest you'll see it for the next 3 years I'm guessing

Recommend you get on before they field the strongest ever side assembled in AFL/VFL history this Friday night!

Does anyone know of any agency that is betting on the 2018 flag? Reckon I'd be happy to take $3.50 GWS there as well.

 

[X_box_X]

Recommend you get on before they field the strongest ever side assembled in AFL/VFL history this Friday night!

Does anyone know of any agency that is betting on the 2018 flag? Reckon I'd be happy to take $3.50 GWS there as well.

That's ridiculous. Bookies would love you.

Why would you even consider having money tied up for that long?

The only money I want tied up for longer than 18 months is my super, and that's only because I don't have a choice.

 

[Sausage Legs]

just eying a few at the moment.

Darcy Moore most snags pies at 3s.
Levi Casboult over 22.5 goals.
Gawn All Aus 2.50.
Crownbet most goals group C. Jack Darling at 3.25 v Cloke, Greene and Dixon.
Prayer bet on Riley Bonner rising star at 251s and also Allir Allir All Australian. That should do I'm starting to sound pissed.

 

[Pres]

That's ridiculous. Bookies would love you.

Why would you even consider having money tied up for that long?

The only money I want tied up for longer than 18 months is my super, and that's only because I don't have a choice.

Hi mate - care to share what % return you have achieved on your betting bank over the past 20 months (which is the period I'm quoting here)? I wonder my chances of getting a straight answer to this question.

Also what price would you have GWS at for next year's flag? Longer or shorter than their current quote for this year's flag?

 

[Jugada]

Tying money up for 18 months is madness. Would need to be getting astronomical value to make it worth it

 

[FallingLiefs]

I think twice about bets for 4 weeks time. Can't believe people want to back outcomes at under or around even money for 6-18month result.

 

[X_box_X]

Hi mate - care to share what % return you have achieved on your betting bank over the past 20 months (which is the period I'm quoting here)? I wonder my chances of getting a straight answer to this question.

Also what price would you have GWS at for next year's flag? Longer or shorter than their current quote for this year's flag?

I'm happy for anyone else here to answer this question. Either that, or you can do a search yourself.

 

[Pres]

Tying money up for 18 months is madness. Would need to be getting astronomical value to make it worth it

Again - what's your personal betting return over the past 18 months?

 

[Jugada]

Again - what's your personal betting return over the past 18 months?

Irrelevant.

 

[X_box_X]

This amature is posting as if it's a sure thing.

It may happen, but it's not a sure thing. That is why your question is irrelevant.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Again - what's your personal betting return over the past 18 months?

i'd say it's significantly higher than yours with that attitude.


Say you turnover your bankroll every 6 weeks. and you have a huge relative bet of 8% bankroll on GWS to win next years flag. using $100 as standard, you turnover $1400 without that bet, $1288 with it. if you make 18% on turnover you make $252 profit over 18 months the first way or $231 the other way. so at $3.50 or 8*2.50 = $20 profit from the bet you lose money putting the bet on. even if it was a 100% lock down sure thing can't possibly lose result.

but of course this may not make sense with your lack of comprehension of a good thing in punting.

have fun punting friend.

 

[mookieb]

i'd say it's significantly higher than yours with that attitude.


Say you turnover your bankroll every 6 weeks. and you have a huge relative bet of 8% bankroll on GWS to win next years flag. using $100 as standard, you turnover $1400 without that bet, $1288 with it. if you make 18% on turnover you make $252 profit over 18 months the first way or $231 the other way. so at $3.50 or 8*2.50 = $20 profit from the bet you lose money putting the bet on. even if it was a 100% lock down sure thing can't possibly lose result.

but of course this may not make sense with your lack of comprehension of a good thing in punting.

have fun punting friend.

Christ almighty the guy says he might be interested in placing a bet on GWS for 2018 and you guys want to jump down his throat for that? I was arguing with one muppet last year who was backing Port to win the flag. At least the best in principle looks solid.

18% profit on turnover? Every six weeks - is this correct?

 

[FallingLiefs]

Christ almighty the guy says he might be interested in placing a bet on GWS for 2018 and you guys want to jump down his throat for that? I was arguing with one muppet last year who was backing Port to win the flag. At least the best in principle looks solid.

18% profit on turnover? Every six weeks - is this correct?

well profit on turnover doesn't really change relative to time otherwise it would be called profit on time.

they're just random numbers showing how much the bookmakers love people putting on futures bets, specifically this guy who seems quite interested in proving he is a better punter than everyone else.

 

[mookieb]

well profit on turnover doesn't really change relative to time otherwise it would be called profit on time.

they're just random numbers showing how much the bookmakers love people putting on futures bets, specifically this guy who seems quite interested in proving he is a better punter than everyone else.

I'm sure the bookies like futures bets, but the guy asks a question and that means he's trying to prove he's a better punter than anyone else? Everyone jumped down his throat and he had a go back.

Interested about how long you should tie up your money for though? I'm on GWS for top 4 for $1.90. Eight months wait, but i'm willing to do that if I have high confidence in the bet. I'm sure others have done the same.

 

[Fuzzy Happy Poo]

Totally agree you should be taking interest and inflation into account for the ev of future bets.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I'm sure the bookies like futures bets, but the guy asks a question and that means he's trying to prove he's a better punter than anyone else? Everyone jumped down his throat and he had a go back.

Interested about how long you should tie up your money for though? I'm on GWS for top 4 for $1.90. Eight months wait, but i'm willing to do that if I have high confidence in the bet. I'm sure others have done the same.

the guy was asked a question back and immediately reverted to but how much money do you make? regardless i wouldn't touch anything in the red over 6 months. of course it all depends on how you perform on long term bets vs short term bets given that week to week sport markets are like 105% and futures 130% to 200% i personally wouldn't touch them at all as it's much more likely you lose more on them then week to week betting. i don't bet sports but i would take maybe 1-2 long term bets all year on racing and they would have to be 20:1 to 100:1 and return in a 2-3 months max. futures bets makes little sense at all, seem more and more like novelty bets.

i won't deny the bookmakers can make big errors on them, but more likely the long priced ones are the errors.

 

[iluvparis]

Totally agree you should be taking interest and inflation into account for the ev of future bets.

Asssuming both are 0 would have worked pretty well the last few years . The time value of money has never been cheaper!

 

[Pres]

i'd say it's significantly higher than yours with that attitude.


Say you turnover your bankroll every 6 weeks. and you have a huge relative bet of 8% bankroll on GWS to win next years flag. using $100 as standard, you turnover $1400 without that bet, $1288 with it. if you make 18% on turnover you make $252 profit over 18 months the first way or $231 the other way. so at $3.50 or 8*2.50 = $20 profit from the bet you lose money putting the bet on. even if it was a 100% lock down sure thing can't possibly lose result.

but of course this may not make sense with your lack of comprehension of a good thing in punting.

have fun punting friend.

Thanks for the abuse mate - appreciate it

You misinterpreted my question to the responders. My point was if GWS wins next year's flag and I had put say my entire bank on it then I have increased my bank by 350% over 20 months. That is not easy to do for most people.

If guys like you are hitting consistently 18% POT (congrats) then I can understand why you would have no interest in a bet of this type. Potentially guys like Jugada and X_Box_X may also be able to do better than 350% bank growth over 20 months with their methods. Hence the question.

I was just questioning the "why would you tie your money up for that period" logic. If you are consistently profitable over that period on your bets and you can beat the 350% growth I was quoting then I understand. However for the majority more bets doesn't always equal more profit.