AFL 2017 AFL Futures

[srobbo]

Oraz ....how's that 3k looking Melbourne not making the 8??

 

[mookieb]

I'm starting to funnel some cash and bonus bets into GWS for the flag.

I simply can't find another team with the personnel good enough to compete if GWS have their best players on the park. Adelaide are the same team as last year without Lyons and have failed numerous tests in the last 6 weeks. Geel has numerous borderline players like Stewart, Bews, Murdoch, Lang, Murdoch trying to compliment Danger and Selwood. The Harry Taylor CHF experiment looks a guaranteed failure.

Port are improved on last year but couldn't beat a top 8 team last year and haven't beaten one this year and it's round 14. Syd and WB are well down on last year.

GWS got Haynes back this week and should get Lobb and Kelly then Hopper, Devon Smith, Coniglio and hopefully Delidio. They'll finish on top and get home finals and should be near unbeatable with a full squad.

Only concern is form but I attribute much of the close losses to having a much depleted squad due to injuries. If they smash Geel next week their odds will be crunched in.

 

[benno_]

I'm starting to funnel some cash and bonus bets into GWS for the flag.

I simply can't find another team with the personnel good enough to compete if GWS have their best players on the park. Adelaide are the same team as last year without Lyons and have failed numerous tests in the last 6 weeks. Geel has numerous borderline players like Stewart, Bews, Murdoch, Lang, Murdoch trying to compliment Danger and Selwood. The Harry Taylor CHF experiment looks a guaranteed failure.

Port are improved on last year but couldn't beat a top 8 team last year and haven't beaten one this year and it's round 14. Syd and WB are well down on last year.

GWS got Haynes back this week and should get Lobb and Kelly then Hopper, Devon Smith, Coniglio and hopefully Delidio. They'll finish on top and get home finals and should be near unbeatable with a full squad.

Only concern is form but I attribute much of the close losses to having a much depleted squad due to injuries. If they smash Geel next week their odds will be crunched in.

Yep I've been thinking of starting to do the same with any bonus bets. GWS just have too much talent, too many players returning soon and still some time to work out any issues. I'm definitely not ruling anyone else out just yet, still a couple of months to go and anything can happen (we all saw the dogs last year), and GWS have also some of their own problems, but at this stage pretty happy to start investing any bonus bets I get on them.

My thoughts..
Crows: A good side, but struggle at times, inconsistent and not exactly a feared opponent right now, Sloane struggles with any attention.
Cats: Have some star power but a pretty overrated team imo (have personally thought that for a couple of years) and can struggle when their stars struggle.
Port: Have been fairly lowkey (not as lowkey in recent weeks though) flat track bullies who will struggle near finals.
Dogs: Amazing finals run last year, but probably a tier below some other sides and probably overachieved last year.
Eagles: Can be dangerous at their best, but too many problems, injuries, VIC hoodoo, too inconsistent.
Dees: Possible smokey for a Dogs type run at the flag, but not quite ready imo
Swans: Just not the same team as last year. Could make a little run if they sneak into the finals, stay healthy, fix their issues and find 2015-2016 form
Bombers: Could be a fairy tale season after the last couple of years, but I don't think they'll be too much of a threat

 

[Dan26]

I'm starting to funnel some cash and bonus bets into GWS for the flag.

I simply can't find another team with the personnel good enough to compete if GWS have their best players on the park. Adelaide are the same team as last year without Lyons and have failed numerous tests in the last 6 weeks. Geel has numerous borderline players like Stewart, Bews, Murdoch, Lang, Murdoch trying to compliment Danger and Selwood. The Harry Taylor CHF experiment looks a guaranteed failure.

Port are improved on last year but couldn't beat a top 8 team last year and haven't beaten one this year and it's round 14. Syd and WB are well down on last year.

GWS got Haynes back this week and should get Lobb and Kelly then Hopper, Devon Smith, Coniglio and hopefully Delidio. They'll finish on top and get home finals and should be near unbeatable with a full squad.

Only concern is form but I attribute much of the close losses to having a much depleted squad due to injuries. If they smash Geel next week their odds will be crunched in.

GWS are the most likely team to win the flag, but as far as betting and probabilities go, it's not a good bet IMHO.

I've got Melbourne at $26, and Port both at $26, and GWS at $6 from earlier this year. They are currently $3.75. I don't think it'll crunch much further in such an even season.

I think too many people look at betting as "tipping." I think you should only bet when the actual real-life probability is greater than what the bookmaker is offering. That's not the case with GWS at the moment.

Let's suppose GWS finished top and have a 66.66% chance of winning all of the three individual finals they need to win. That's 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 = 28% chance of the premiership which equals a $3.50 price.

Not a good bet. Only take them at $5 or more.

 

[iluvparis]

If you think GWS are a $6 flag chance can you please put unlimited funds up on Betfair to lay them at that price?

kthxbye

 

[mookieb]

GWS are the most likely team to win the flag, but as far as betting and probabilities go, it's not a good bet IMHO.

I've got Melbourne at $26, and Port both at $26, and GWS at $6 from earlier this year. They are currently $3.75. I don't think it'll crunch much further in such an even season.

I think too many people look at betting as "tipping." I think you should only bet when the actual real-life probability is greater than what the bookmaker is offering. That's not the case with GWS at the moment.

Let's suppose GWS finished top and have a 66.66% chance of winning all of the three individual finals they need to win. That's 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 = 28% chance of the premiership which equals a $3.50 price.

Not a good bet. Only take them at $5 or more.

I should probably look at the odds a bit more, but instead I have looked at it from a comparative basis.

Nothing indicates to me that 17 of the clubs excluding GWS have the playing list, maturity or ability to win a flag unless their is extenuating circumstances. The season is very even - the top teams aren't great and the bottom teams aren't terrible ie Ade vs Hawks. Makes for great viewing.

Highly rated teams for the premiership such as Geel and Ade have serious deficiencies to the point where I can't envisage them winning.

The difference is GWS have been ravaged by injuries and are still on top. Come the end of the season i'm speculating a marked difference in talent between GWS and other finalists.

Also I collect bonus bets as I go so like the idea of just pooling them into a larger position for a big payoff at the end of the season. If GWS make the GF I could easily hedge with the likely underdog.

 

[Dan26]

I should probably look at the odds a bit more, but instead I have looked at it from a comparative basis.

Nothing indicates to me that 17 of the clubs excluding GWS have the playing list, maturity or ability to win a flag unless their is extenuating circumstances. The season is very even - the top teams aren't great and the bottom teams aren't terrible ie Ade vs Hawks. Makes for great viewing.

Highly rated teams for the premiership such as Geel and Ade have serious deficiencies to the point where I can't envisage them winning.

The difference is GWS have been ravaged by injuries and are still on top. Come the end of the season i'm speculating a marked difference in talent between GWS and other finalists.

Also I collect bonus bets as I go so like the idea of just pooling them into a larger position for a big payoff at the end of the season. If GWS make the GF I could easily hedge with the likely underdog.

Futures are actually a good market for bonus bets, because early futures markets gives you odds which are way "over the odds"

Golf and Tennis futures are good ways to get 50-1 and 67-1 long shots that come right down when the tournament starts. Ostapenko in the womens tennis was a 200-1 outsider at one point in the French open and she won.

Your futures market seems to be putting all your eggs into the shortest price favourite. I'm not sure I'd do that.

If you can split your bonus bets, a good market is early futures on the Superbowl winner. The NFL is such an open competition, that you can easily find 5 teams paying 34:1 or thereabouts. A 16 game league with knockout play-offs. There's huge value to be found there.

 

[iluvparis]

Futures are actually a good market for bonus bets, because early futures markets gives you odds which are way "over the odds"

Golf and Tennis futures are good ways to get 50-1 and 67-1 long shots that come right down when the tournament starts. Ostapenko in the womens tennis was a 200-1 outsider at one point in the French open and she won.

Your futures market seems to be putting all your eggs into the shortest price favourite. I'm not sure I'd do that.

If you can split your bonus bets, a good market is early futures on the Superbowl winner. The NFL is such an open competition, that you can easily find 5 teams paying 34:1 or thereabouts. A 16 game league with knockout play-offs. There's huge value to be found there.

How many of the last dozen superbowl winners would have opened 30/1+?

How many times in the last 40 grand slams would a player opening 30/1+ won a grand slam?

Most players/teams are 30/1 for a reason - they won't win.

 

[Dan26]

How many of the last dozen superbowl winners would have opened 30/1+?

How many times in the last 40 grand slams would a player opening 30/1+ won a grand slam?

Most players/teams are 30/1 for a reason - they won't win.

If a 30-1 long shots wins the superbowl once every 28 years, you are up.

I'm suggesting that you take undervalued teams at 30-1 before the price comes in. (do your research obviously)

Marin Cilic was at $41 for Wimbledon, and way over the odds. He is now into $15.

 

[iluvparis]

If a 30-1 long shots wins the superbowl once every 28 years, you are up.

I'm suggesting that you take them at 30-1 before the price comes in.

Marin Cilic was at $41 for Wimbledon, and way over the odds. He is now into $15.

Yes but you not only have to pick which year that is you have to pick the right 30/1 shot.

 

[Dan26]

Yes but you not only have to pick which year that is you have to pick the right 30/1 shot.

http://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-team/

Odds during the pre-season for eventual superbowl winner.

2015 Denver were 10:1
2012 Baltimore were 19:1
2011 NYG 23:1
2010 Green Bay 12:1
2009 New Orelans 21:1
2008 Pitts 19:1
2007 NYG 31:1
2003 New England 16:1
2001 New England 61:1
1999 Rams 200:1

 

[iluvparis]

http://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-team/

2015 Denver were 10:1
2012 Baltimore were 19:1
2011 NYG 23:1
2010 Green Bay 12:1
2009 New Orelans 21:1
2008 Pitts 19:1
2007 NYG 31:1
2003 New England 16:1
2001 New England 61:1
1999 Rams 200:1

I'd argue of the three 30/1+ only the Giants were pickable - and it took a miracle for them to win - you'd want to be lucky!

 

[Dan26]

I'd argue of the three 30/1+ only the Giants were pickable - and it took a miracle for them to win - you'd want to be lucky!

Indeed. That's why it's a good idea to use bonus bets on a few teams, not just one. I've used a bonus bet on the Demons at 26:1 for the premiership in the AFL. Same price with Port.

 

[Rourke]

The difference is GWS have been ravaged by injuries and are still on top. Come the end of the season i'm speculating a marked difference in talent between GWS and other finalists.

GWS have lost to two non-finalists and been thrashed by Adelaide. They've fallen across the line in four other matches. Their injury list is not the worst. I rate them seventh on current form. Would not be parking September money on them at under $6.

 

[mookieb]

GWS have lost to two non-finalists and been thrashed by Adelaide. They've fallen across the line in four other matches. Their injury list is not the worst. I rate them seventh on current form. Would not be parking September money on them at under $6.

I have some concerns on form to be honest, but I attribute much of that to injuries. I think they'll build toward the end of the year.

Who has had a worse run with injuries? Lost Delidio, Coniglio, Haynes, Hopper, Adam Kennedy, Buntine, Greene (suspension), Devon Smith, Griffen plus smaller time of for Davis, Stevie J, Patton and others.

Take 3 or 4 gun players out of Ade, Geel and co and they become what Syd was at the start of the year.

I am speculating somewhat though because if you include Kelly, Lobb, Coniglio, Smith, Hopper and ideally Delidio on paper there is a massive gulf in talent between GWS and the rest.

 

[Jugada]

WTF does it being a bonus bet have to do with anything? Either its +EV or it isn't surely

 

[Jugada]

I rate them seventh on current form.

Id suggest taking another look then. Seriously awful call

 

[Cro19]

GWS have lost to two non-finalists and been thrashed by Adelaide. They've fallen across the line in four other matches. Their injury list is not the worst. I rate them seventh on current form. Would not be parking September money on them at under $6.

Would love to see the rest of your ratings.

Also curious how you could possibly consider backing the seventh best team at $6

 

[hedgedhog]

WTF does it being a bonus bet have to do with anything? Either its +EV or it isn't surely

Could be +eV but not worth the having your capital tied down normally. Bonus bets don't have any value outside of your betting account until you get paid out on winnings while money in your betting account is still money if you decide you need to withdraw.

 

[Jugada]

Could be +eV but not worth the having your capital tied down normally. Bonus bets don't have any value outside of your betting account until you get paid out on winnings while money in your betting account is still money if you decide you need to withdraw.

Of course bonus bets have value. No real difference between having bonus bets tied up or cash. You could just as easily use the bonus bet on something at similar odds short term, or back and lay them for 70%+ risk free

 

[hedgedhog]

Of course bonus bets have value. No real difference between having bonus bets tied up or cash. You could just as easily use the bonus bet on something at similar odds short term, or back and lay them for 70%+ risk free

I didn't say they didn't, but they have much less value than actual cash which might make it more worthwhile to put it on longer-odds futures with medium term duration.

If you have a system that generates 4% ROI over each bet, the value of that $50 bonus bet is only 50 x ((1.04)^10 - 1) = $24 for the rest of the AFL regular season.

Your futures bet probability only needs to beat that and much easier to do with longer-odds stuff since a lot of futures markets are much more inefficient than weekly lines. Just an example:

St Kilda (few guys on Twitter had modelled @ 40% chance to make top 8): (50 x 0.40 x $4) - $50 = $30

eV of $30 but would I do it with my own cash? Probably not because the variance is so much higher.

 

[hedgedhog]

Hey lads, I'm currently on McGrath to win the Rising Star (2.5U @ $5) and he's currently at $3.50. Should I cash out and take the $75 considering Burton looks more and more certain each week? Or should I put 2.5U on Burton @ $2 to cover the McGrath bet and hope that McGrath gets up?

Does anyone see anyone else winning it? I'm personally a little worried about Powell-Pepper as his highlight reel is better than both and it's a bit of a popularity contest/media award.

I'm not sure why SPP isn't more favoured? Then again I don't know how Rising Star award works but right now SPP is definitely playing as good if not better than Burton for me.

 

[bigpapagman]

I've placed $18.50 @ $5.50 on Richmond to mail it in from here and miss the 8. That way I receive a delicious ~$Gherkin for my trouble of being a Richmond supporter.

If we make it, I'll be getting into whoever we're playing.

 

[iluvparis]

I've placed $18.50 @ $5.50 on Richmond to mail it in from here and miss the 8. That way I receive a delicious ~$Gherkin for my trouble of being a Richmond supporter.

If we make it, I'll be getting into whoever we're playing.

Love a good emotional hedge

 

[bigpapagman]

Love a good emotional hedge

Best one this year was the disgusting 10s put up for GWS half-way through the last in that game.

As soon as Dusty missed that set shot I climbed in.