AFL 2017 AFL Futures

[mookieb]

I'm not sure why SPP isn't more favoured? Then again I don't know how Rising Star award works but right now SPP is definitely playing as good if not better than Burton for me.

Last 2 games Burton was brilliant against Ade (kicked 2 goals and covered Tex) and last week was named best and had 29 possies.

For me SPP had an extended quiet patch, but last 2 weeks has played really well (although prob not as good as Burton). SPP now 2nd in betting as he should be as McGrath seems to have tailed off and might need a week off.

 

[Rourke]

Would love to see the rest of your ratings.

Also curious how you could possibly consider backing the seventh best team at $6

I wouldn't. The $6 was mentioned in the thread. Also they'll finish top four (probably top two) which is a leg up. Doesn't change the underlying rating.

 

[iluvparis]

I wouldn't. The $6 was mentioned in the thread. Also they'll finish top four (probably top two) which is a leg up. Doesn't change the underlying rating.

Who are the top 6?

 

[mookieb]

I wouldn't. The $6 was mentioned in the thread. Also they'll finish top four (probably top two) which is a leg up. Doesn't change the underlying rating.

If you picking a team for the flag are you using current form or speculating on how things will turn out at the end of the season? Whilst GWS form is very average (covered the spread twice in last 2 months I think) if they get their players back they will be the only elite team in the competition.

Williams (running back), Delidio (versatile gun), Greene (match winner), Coniglio (gun inside mid), Hopper (inside mid depth), Griffen (experienced midfielder) all missed from last weeks game. The problem they have is that they keep getting new injuries and Delidio and Griffen are iffy as to whether they return.

If GWS don't win then it's wide open. Ade are worse than last year and have been worked out. Syd are worse than last year and prob don't have the cattle, WB are gone, WC can't win at the MCG or with their squad, Port are rated around 4th fav and haven't beaten a team in the 8 for nearly two seasons. Melb and Rich are interesting, but surely unbackable with their history.

Geel are interesting. Probably not as good a team as last year but an amazing record against good teams. Got Dangerwood and well coached. If GWS form doesn't improve and injuries cruel them it might leave Geel well positioned. Looking at their team though it has very average depth.

 

[Rourke]

If you picking a team for the flag are you using current form or speculating on how things will turn out at the end of the season? Whilst GWS form is very average (covered the spread twice in last 2 months I think) if they get their players back they will be the only elite team in the competition.
Williams (running back), Delidio (versatile gun), Greene (match winner), Coniglio (gun inside mid), Hopper (inside mid depth), Griffen (experienced midfielder) all missed from last weeks game. The problem they have is that they keep getting new injuries and Delidio and Griffen are iffy as to whether they return.

Looking at how much time they've spent out, with the exception of Toby Greene do you see any of these guys adding significant value over the blokes who have been on the field for the past month? The Giants' problem is not individuals, as they are easily best for making progress with the ball and have incredible forwards / half-forwards. When they don't have the ball they are bottom five in the comp (SEN Pure Footy last week, and the TedSport numbers agree). That says the structures are wrong, the defensive efforts are lacking, they are overcommitted to attack, or a combination of those. There is not a single example of an AFL Premier that was ranked anywhere near that low at disrupting oppo ball movement. Teams like the Lions in 2001/02/03 had flaws, but they would back themselves to get the ball back from an opponent no matter what. I don't see that in GWS.
Who'll win? I love that I have no idea.

 

[iluvparis]

Same was said about Dogs players coming back from injury last year - they certainly seem to improve on the back ups.

 

[Whit3y]

anyone else got kennedy in a multi to win the coleman and are really shitty with west coast's playing funny buggers about his fitness

you can probably tell that i have

 

[Keystone agony]

Ive unleashed on Gaff for Brownlow ie top 3

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Ive unleashed on Gaff for Brownlow ie top 3

Good luck with that...

 

[Keystone agony]

Good luck with that...

Wish he had a good game yesterday. Not to be.Thanks for that hindsight

 

[demon_fanatic]

Wish he had a good game yesterday. Not to be.Thanks for that hindsight

Can't see gaff going with tom Mitchell n j kelly tbh

 

[donsm8]

I reckon Merrett paying $8.50 on Brownlow Top 3 is value. Putting 2U on it!

 

[big_bazza]

Do any bookies have any 2018 AFL future markets up, specifically the rising star market? cheers fellas.

 

[ash_1050]

Do any bookies have any 2018 AFL future markets up, specifically the rising star market? cheers fellas.

You'd need a draft before you can establish a rising star.

 

[big_bazza]

You'd need a draft before you can establish a rising star.

You'd be wrong, sportsbet can give you bets on most things mate. they've offered me a bet in the market but the odds were pathetic so ill wait.

 

[benno_]

From around round 5:

yep also sydney to make 8 after they lose to GWS will be out to $3

I've been eyeing off the Swans too for the last couple of weeks, will be tempting if they get to $3. How many wins do we think they would need to to get to sneak into the 8? At a glance my very rough guess atm has them finishing on about 13ish wins if a lot goes right for them after round 5.

3.70 now. But u will need some balls to pull the trigger on that if u bet large.

Yeah the odds are tempting, but still quite risky, I decided the other day to focus on their individual games.

#hindsight lol. Into $1.13 now to make the 8 and $6 for the flag. Always thought they'd turn their season around and be in the mix, but wasn't sure if it'd be enough to scrape into the 8. I didn't expect them to play quite as well as they have lol.

 

[iluvparis]

You can still get $1.20+ for them to make the 8 on betfair.

 

[free at last]

Demons at $21 for the flag is pretty good value imo...

 

[X_box_X]

Demons at $21 for the flag is pretty good value imo...

Absolutey. Where's that at?

 

[free at last]

Absolutey. Where's that at?

B365...I got on this morning at $21,checked,now at $15.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Question. Do the afl least wins market dead heat and half odds if tie or just pay out on spooners. I remember someone having difficulty with it previously

 

[X_box_X]

Question. Do the afl least wins market dead heat and half odds if tie or just pay out on spooners. I remember someone having difficulty with it previously

2014. I backed Melbourne for least wins with TAB and St. Kilda for least wins with Puntingpal.

Both teams finished with four wins, 17th and 18th on the ladder.

Puntingpal settled my bet as a dead heat, while TAB settled my bet as a loss because their terms and conditions stipulated "in the event of a tie, the team with the lower percentage will win the market".

It was ****ed, cause I put quite a bit on both teams thinking I had come across a huge arb. I think the odds I got were $1.75 v $4 with two rounds to go.

 

[Sausage Legs]

2014. I backed Melbourne for least wins with TAB and St. Kilda for least wins with Puntingpal.

Both teams finished with four wins, 17th and 18th on the ladder.

Puntingpal settled my bet as a dead heat, while TAB settled my bet as a loss because their terms and conditions stipulated "in the event of a tie, the team with the lower percentage will win the market".

It was ******, cause I put quite a bit on both teams thinking I had come across a huge arb. I think the odds I got were $1.75 v $4 with two rounds to go.

Yeah I think I found that they call it most losses as opposed to spoon in case a team gets stripped of points like dons sorta scenario. But yeah can be misleading

 

[Jugada]

Playing with fire betting that much at Punting Pal to begin with really

 

[X_box_X]

Playing with fire betting that much at Punting Pal to begin with really

They were ******* awesome. Live online betting ftw. Slow to change their odds. I was in my element.