I need something to distract me otherwise my anus turns into a broken fire hydrant. Let’s have a look into some bum plugging stats…
As it’s the GF, you’d think the ‘home ground’ advantage would mean less, but it’s still interesting to look into…
Adelaide Oval dimensions:
Length: 167m /
Width: 123m
MCG dimensions:
Length: 160m /
Width: 141m
First thing that comes to mind when I think Adelaide is high scoring… Adelaide have scored over 120 pts
9 times this year,
6 of those in the first
10 rounds. You would think with Adelaide's slicing rebound football, a wider and shorter ground would be a benefit to them. Yet that doesn't seem to be the case...
Opposition avgs vs Richmond (at the MCG):
Scoring Shots: 20 (Crows' lowest winning scoring shots 24)
Disposals Per Goal: 42
Total Score: 68 (Crows' lowest winning score 84)
Adelaide’s 2017 MCG record:
Rd 02: Hawks - Win
113-89 (16.17)
Rd 15: Blues - Win
89-77 (13.11)
Rd 19: Magpies - Draw
103-103 (16.7)
I know it's a small sample size, though it's hardly the super high scoring Adelaide we’re used to hearing about this year, and against very average teams (
12th, 16th & 13th).
We have not let any opposition score over 100 pts at the ‘G in 2017.
Adelaide have only won
3 games this year scoring under 100 pts:
(NOTE: We have won 10 games scoring under 100pts)
Rd 15: Blues - Win 89-77
Rd 18: Cats - Win 91-70
QF 01: Giants - Win 84-48
And in all their losses, they have failed to score 100 pts (86 being the highest):
Rd 07: Kangaroos Loss 86-145 (13.8)
Rd 08: Demons Loss 66-107 (9.12)
Rd 11: Cats Loss 74-96 (10.14)
Rd 14: Hawks Loss 82-96 (12.10)
Rd 22: Swans Loss 80-83 (11.14)
Rd 23: Eagles Loss 71-100 (10.11)
Well duh, not many teams lose scoring over 100 pts…
What can we take from this?
You’re not going to beat Adelaide in a shoot out. I think this was the mistake we made when playing them the first time this year. We tried to match their scoring power and whilst it worked for a qtr, we could not maintain it for 4 qtrs.
Another note of interest is scoring shots (SS). All their losses have them with less than 30 SS, and just 5 of their 17 wins this year have less than 30 SS.
Below are a few stats and players I feel are key to stopping Adelaide's scoring and gameplay...
Rebound 50s:
1. Rory Laird: 4.79
2. Jake Lever: 3.58
3. Brodie Smith: 3.30
4. Luke Brown: 2.83
5. Kyle Hartigan: 2.59
Laird's disposal and rebound from defence is a key focus for us to stop. He's not the quickest of HB's like we had against GWS and Wilson and Williams, I think our small fwds' speed and pressure will be incredibly important nullifying his influence. He's not the tallest of defenders (178cm), so our smalls should match up physically against him.
Intercepts:
1. Jake Lever: 9.58
2. Rory Laird: 7.46
3. Daniel Talia: 6.43
4. Luke Brown: 5.74
5. Kyle Hartigan: 5.65
Lever tore us up last time we played. The Crows forced us into very shallow i50's, only entering around the 45m out. Which allowed Lever to play the 3rd man at contests and mop up our attempts into the fwd 50. Townsend is likely the one to go to him and play that super defensive fwd role he did to previous opponents such as Johnson, Carlisle, Henderson. His lack of height could be an issue but it didn't seem to have stopped him on previous opponents, this will be a match up to look forward to.
Effective Disposals:
1. Rory Laird:23.88
2. Matt Crouch:23.79
3. Brad Crouch: 19.37
4. Rory Sloane: 16.87
5. Brodie Smith: 15.70
Not just an accumulator, M. Crouch has used the ball as effectively as anyone this year, finding targets in tight contests is one of the hardest skills to stop. Prestia I think will go to him and try to match his ball winning and clearance ability.
Score Involvements:
1. Taylor Walker: 8.50
2. Tom Lynch: 8.05
3. Eddie Betts: 7.57
4. Matt Crouch: 7.25
5. Rory Sloane: 7.13
This top 5 is enough to show why Adelaide have been the best team this year. We only have 1 player averaging over 7 score involvements for the year (Martin 9.00). Lynch for me is incredibly dangerous, he works hard up the wings and presents all day, he avgs over 7 marks a game (the most of any Crow) but less than 1 contested mark. I would put McIntosh on him to match his running power, and his size (listed at 192cm vs Lynch 191cm) should trouble Lynch's marking ability and quell his scoring influence.
Inside 50s:
1. Rory Sloane: 4.52
2. Brad Crouch: 4.21
3. Rory Atkins: 4.00
3. Charlie Cameron: 4.00
5. Taylor Walker: 3.95
Sloane is an obvious key player for the Crows, his clearance work and speed to get boot to ball in a contest was pivotal in our loss to them in Rd 6. Though one thing we found out this year was if applied a heavy tag, his impact on the game can suffer greatly. Whether he's been able to beat the tag or not, I think have to play either Lambert or possibly Grigg as a negating role on him.
Metres Gained:
1. Brodie Smith: 493.87
2. Rory Laird: 420.62
3. Rory Atkins: 407.50
4. Rory Sloane: 356.39
5. Matt Crouch: 351.21
Smith a noticeable omission from this list averaging almost 500m per game. Another player I feel is key to the Crows' attack and drive from defence is Atkins. He's 7th for r50's and 3rd for i50's, avgs 22 touches a game and 16 of those effective. So he doesn't waste it when he has it, and he goes forward with it, avging 18.8m per disp, for reference Laird avgs 14.2m.
Gee, Rustof. What are we going to do to beat them?
The same thing we do every game, Pinkie!
Try to take over the world PRESSURE!
I know it's easier said than done but we just need to do what we've done all year at the 'G. Keep them to 70-90 pts, force them to go sideways, dispose under pressure and to over-posses the footy. Do that and we win.
GO TIGES!
