May the returning Perth Hoodoo roll on 
AFL 2017 - AFL Round 14
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
- Tagged users None
- Status
That's a dumb bet. The probability of a $1.46 chance and a $1.85 chance both winning is 32.5% which is approximately odds of $3.10.
Yet you're taking odds of $2.73. Crazy.
You're getting ripped off. You're better off taking both teams in seperate bets. You got lucky because they both won but in terms of pure numbers, you took odds lower than what you should have, and if that's the case you should never take the bet.
NutnButAPnut
Senior List
- May 26, 2015
- 187
- 174
- AFL Club
- Essendon
I do them occasionally for a bit of fun but theres no difference between a $100 multi of dogs and melbourne and just putting 100 on dogs then rolling that 146 profit onto dees at 1.85, in the end ur still risking the same amount. Only use for a multi is if game times overlap or if u think odds are gonna shorten beforehand so u lock in the better price
Russian Demon
Premiership Player
- Mar 26, 2015
- 4,225
- 5,651
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
I'm sketchy on the maths, but doesn't it work out that the bookie gets to apply their percentage twice and then multiply it?
- Apr 6, 2016
- 632
- 939
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Right! If you win on the Dogs and then roll your original stake AND the profit into Melbourne, it's the same bet. I wouldn't back a $1.10 H2H team, but if I include them in a multi, odds are boosted by far more.
Rocky Straight
Debutant
- Jun 2, 2017
- 144
- 94
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Banned
- #332
she nailed her first sentence in her previous post too, went downhill fast after that
Rocky Straight
Debutant
- Jun 2, 2017
- 144
- 94
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Banned
- #333
you just did
NutnButAPnut
Senior List
- May 26, 2015
- 187
- 174
- AFL Club
- Essendon
no difference tho (as far as i know)... by putting the 100 on the multi ur basically just having the book roll that 1st leg stake and profit over into the next leg for u, but locking urself into the other legs or copping juice for cashout/hedge if something happens. if either teams loses no matter which way u do it ur still only down the initial 100.
currently a dees, dogs and dons multi is paying 2.88, u can either lock urself in now with 100 on the 3 leg multi to payout 288 or u can just put 100 on dees to win 181, then that 181 on dogs to win at 1.45 to win 262.45 then that 262.45 on dons at 1.10 to win 288.75... either way ur gonna end up with -$100 or $188 profit. if the games are constantly overlapping or on at the same time and ur confident then prob fair enough cuz u wont have a chance to rebet. If ur doing a friday/sat/sat/sun afl multi or something like that theres no benefit (apart from possible promo payback) to the multi compared to just rolling profit into the next singles bet unless ur predicting one of the later legs odds to shorten drastically. u will just have more flexibility to change stakes/backout or anything by staying out of the multi and having late team changes burn u or s**t like that. + current afl lead promos would be usuable by rolling over in singles bets
- Apr 6, 2016
- 632
- 939
- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
If I put $100 on a $1.10 H2H, I get $110 back...however, if I take Port/GWS/GC/WB in a multi H2H, the odds are $4.70...adding Essendon H2H brings the odds to $5.17...an extra $47 for the Essendon win within the multi for a $100 stake, rather than $10 profit for the Essendon win H2H on a single $100 bet. Without Essendon in the multi, it's a $370 profit for a $100 outlay. With Essendon included in the multi, it's a $417 profit for a $100 outlay. As a previous poster has suggested, some games overlap, which negates the next bet if re-investing from the previous game. There's always the cash out option as well. I understand the concept of rolling stake and profit over into the next game and the next, and it's a valid argument, if you're able to do so. PS: Off topic: Leave the insults at the door, fellas. We're all here for the same reason, but too often, strips are torn off each other, and together with the name calling, well, it's getting really old. Everyone's money is their own, and at the end of the day, they can do what they want with it. Case in point, the bullying and passive/aggressive posts towards Oraz. Think before you type...we might all benefit if you do.
No it's not the same bet, because if you bet on both separately, you allow yourself the possibility of one of them losing yet you can still make money. With the multi, both have to win, and the bookie gives you oddasthat are less than the actual probability.
Don't get sucked into multis. Just don't do it. Multis are crazy bets for for mug punters, who don't understand numbers.
Last edited:
Using your example, would you place $470 on Essendon at $1.10?
bruceharmes
Debutant
Multis can be quite lucrative with the the compounding affect, I made over $5k this weekend on multis
- Jul 23, 2010
- 5,767
- 4,141
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
strong understanding of risk and return in this thread
bruceharmes
Debutant
Best thing about multis is you can use them as a hedging tool to protect your other bets !
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,651
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
bruceharmes
Debutant
simple example, take all the other sides of bets you make on the weekend and stick them in a multi, for a small outlay you are guaranteed to at least win something if all you bets fail.
That's only if all 4 of your individual bets fail (then the multi, which took the 4 opposites would win)
But what are the chances that ALL four of your single-bet selections would lose?
Crazy punting.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,651
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
This year - 89% chance
NutnButAPnut
Senior List
- May 26, 2015
- 187
- 174
- AFL Club
- Essendon
its still just rolling that $470 from the 1st 4 singles wins into bombers at 1.10 to make that 517, the book is just doing the rolling for u while locking u in and holding ur would be profits, then taking their cut $ if u decide to cashout/hedge (which most ppl get tempted by late in multis) if u lost on the bombers leg ur still only really losing the initial 100 stake (not 470) same as u would lose by putting 100 on the multi. same outcome either way, just less control over everything while its taken in a multi... i make tennis multis on bet365 using their %bonus promo but atm i dont see much point on afl, especially not with the 24+ promo on atm.
watever floats ones boat tho, as long as ur making money in the long run. but they arent some huge odds boosting tool like they make it seem
bruceharmes
Debutant
Not sure what the chances are without seeing the bet but like I said its a simple example of hedging if things don't go the way you think, at least you have a chance to make money even when your wrong.
- Status
