AFL 2017 - AFL Round 15

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Melbourne |$1.90|$1.81|$1.87|$1.85|$1.87|$1.85
\Sydney |$1.90|$2.00|$1.93|$1.95|$1.95|$1.95
\|line:**.5|line:1.5|line:1.5|line:1.5|line:1.5|line:1.5
\total score:|***.5|178.5|***.5|***.5|178.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\West.Bulldogs |$1.45|$1.45|$1.46|$1.50|$1.47|$1.48
\West Coast |$2.75|$2.75|$2.70|$2.60|$2.70|$2.65
\|line:**.5|line:13.5|line:14.5|line:12.5|line:13.5|line:13.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|170.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Carlton |$3.70|$3.78|$3.60|$3.55|$3.60|$3.50
\Adelaide |$1.28|$1.27|$1.28|$1.30|$1.30|$1.30
\|line:**.5|line:23.5|line:24.5|line:23.5|line:23.5|line:22.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|175.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Gold Coast |$1.85|$1.85|$1.87|$1.85|$1.87|$1.90
\North Melb. |$1.95|$1.95|$1.93|$1.95|$1.95|$1.90
\|line:**.5|line:1.5|line:1.5|line:1.5|line:1.5|line:N/L
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|189.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney |$1.37|$1.34|$1.34|$1.36|$1.35|$1.33
\Geelong |$3.10|$3.30|$3.25|$3.15|$3.25|$3.25
\|line:**.5|line:19.5|line:20.5|line:18.5|line:19.5|line:20.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|173.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Port Adelaide |$1.36|$1.32|$1.32|$1.33|$1.33|$1.33
\Richmond |$3.15|$3.40|$3.35|$3.35|$3.35|$3.30
\|line:**.5|line:20.5|line:21.5|line:20.5|line:20.5|line:20.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|162.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Essendon |$1.10|$1.08|$1.08|$1.09|$1.083|$1.08
\Brisbane |$7.00|$8.00|$7.50|$7.50|$7.50|$7.50
\|line:**.5|line:43.5|line:43.5|line:42.5|line:44.5|line:43.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|199.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Hawthorn |$2.00|$2.03|$2.00|$2.00|$2.00|$1.95
\Collingwood |$1.80|$1.79|$1.80|$1.80|$1.82|$1.85
\|line:**.5|line:2.5|line:2.5|line:2.5|line:2.5|line:1.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|177.5|***.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Fremantle |$1.80|$1.84|$1.85|$1.85|$1.80|$1.75
\St.Kilda |$2.00|$1.97|$1.95|$1.95|$2.02|$2.07
\|line:**.5|line:1.5|line:1.5|line:1.5|line:2.5|line:4.5
\total score:|***.5|***.5|***.5|***.5|167.5|***.5

ODDS AT 11.15 ON 26/6/17

 

[Sabbathen]

Looks like Sportsbet are still running the 24 up promo this week.

 

[mookieb]

The Books have reacted to the Cats injuries facing GWS.
1st $1.37 vs equal Second $3.25 on ladder

You inferring that Cats are good value? I think Geel are horribly overrated and depth will be struggling to cover 2 injuries from the week before and 3 from this weekends games. Reid tagged Zorko to 5 possessions and if Selwood misses and a hard tag on Danger is effective this result could get messy.

I'm expecting Kelly and Lobb back for GWS.

 

[targett]

You inferring that Cats are good value? I think Geel are horribly overrated and depth will be struggling to cover 2 injuries from the week before and 3 from this weekends games. Reid tagged Zorko to 5 possessions and if Selwood misses and a hard tag on Danger is effective this result could get messy.

I'm expecting Kelly and Lobb back for GWS.

I agree with you,Im just stating the lop sided market in terms of ladder position.

 

[AFLFootyChick]

You inferring that Cats are good value? I think Geel are horribly overrated and depth will be struggling to cover 2 injuries from the week before and 3 from this weekends games. Reid tagged Zorko to 5 possessions and if Selwood misses and a hard tag on Danger is effective this result could get messy.

I'm expecting Kelly and Lobb back for GWS.

Agree. Geelong were lucky to get out of jail and get that win yesterday. I can't even see them getting 24 points up to trigger the "four goals up and pay out" special on Sportsbet.

 

[Dan26]

Agree. Geelong were lucky to get out of jail and get that win yesterday. I can't even see them getting 24 points up to trigger the "four goals up and pay out" special on Sportsbet.

I can't bet on that special on sportsbet because I am promo banned, but if you have the cash, I suggest you use the 24 pts up promo every game. It's a great promo.

 

[Dan26]

I'd also suggest you use it on every underdog, even if you don't think they're a chance. I havn't done the calculations because I cant bet on the promo, but I'm sure that if you have bet on every underdog with that promo, you'd be up by more than if you had bet on every favourite.

I'd be betting on the underdog with the sportsbet promo, and then using Ubet's "lead at half time but lose money back promo" to bet on the favourite.

 

[Sabbathen]

I'd also suggest you use it on every underdog, even if you don't think they're a chance. I havn't done the calculations because I cant bet on the promo, but I'm sure that if you have bet on every underdog with that promo, you'd be up by more than if you had bet on every favourite.

Correct. Not sure how many weeks this promo has run for but if you apply it to every round this year there are only two that haven't returned a profit and one of those weeks was very marginal.

 

[Dan26]

I've heard that one market that bookies lose on more than any other is the over/under points totals for AFL games. I've heard this is one area that they take a hit in every week. What's everyone's predictions for the over/under for the weekends games?

 

[Keystone agony]

Eagles a good bet for me

Geelong also if Jelwood returns. Reckon they have to pick Zac Smith and Cunico. Thurlow maybe replaces stewart.

 

[hedgedhog]

I've heard that one market that bookies lose on more than any other is the over/under points totals for AFL games. I've heard this is one area that they take a hit in every week. What's everyone's predictions for the over/under for the weekends games?

Any idea the reason behind that? Is it mainly because of lines moving from weather or are they just not able to price totals well enough overall?

 

[Dan26]

Any idea the reason behind that? Is it mainly because of lines moving from weather or are they just not able to price totals well enough overall?

I'm not sure, it's just what I've heard. It's one market that bookmakers lose on for some reason.

 

[mookieb]

After the talk on 6 day breaks I found this article although I can't open the table.

It indicates that 6 day breaks are slightly detrimental (48% win ratio) but consecutive 6 days breaks result in a win rate of 45%.

Melbourne has three 6 day breaks in a row including a trip back from Perth. Additionally they are playing Sydney who have an 8 day break which is also shown to be advantageous.

http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/10/30/rts-2015-afl-fixture-breaks-matter/

 

[demon_fanatic]

Liking Hawks with Birchall n a few back to roll pies who probably be a bit flat knowing finals likely over, Are they getting wells, Varcoe , Elliot beck?? I think the teams may be trending opposite ways bit more buzz about hawthorn with burton.. they may cause a few Upsets on run home and I trust their fwd line more than pies.. they should of rolled them last time as 3.50-4.00 underdogs. Don't think pies will get that midfield dominance of the 2nd half of that game this time

 

[mookieb]

Eagles a good bet for me

Geelong also if Jelwood returns. Reckon they have to pick Zac Smith and Cunico. Thurlow maybe replaces stewart.

Any particular reasons for Geel?

I'm very confident on GWS. They'll get Lobb and Kelly back and Geel have been ordinary in their last couple of road games (GC -25 and WC -13 (should have been more)). I think they are terribly overrated with structural issues and poor depth. I'm anticipating Selwood misses and if Reid tags Danger effectively then it could get very messy.

 

[hedgedhog]

Any particular reasons for Geel?

I'm very confident on GWS. They'll get Lobb and Kelly back and Geel have been ordinary in their last couple of road games (GC -25 and WC -13 (should have been more)). I think they are terribly overrated with structural issues and poor depth. I'm anticipating Selwood misses and if Reid tags Danger effectively then it could get very messy.

Taranto is out for GWS so wouldn't touch this game until lineups are out.

 

[Rocky Straight]

Any idea the reason behind that? Is it mainly because of lines moving from weather or are they just not able to price totals well enough overall?

bit of everything.
weather can cause totals to drop 50+ points, then game day if it ends up being dry it will steam back up to where it was, any mug can take advantage of this.
only a couple books are putting totals up Monday now, they are for one guessing on the weather and it seems also guessing on their numbers, small bettors with some idea are betting these and the sportsbets/365 of the world are by Wednesday producing a semi accurate total for when TAB & Topsport put their totals up, both of whom will take half a bet compared to these other corps.

I am not sure they would be losing on them, would be grinding a very small profit, they've done everything they can to minimize the damage. (1.87-1.90 odds, micro limits) I also think by game day they are fairly accurate so tough to beat for the public like lines.

 

[Spacedog]

I went early on some bets last week

Melbourne @ 2.07
West Coast +15.5

Also took
Collingwood @1.79
Adelaide -22.5
Fremantle 1.85

 

[royeca]

Strong feeling blues will get up this week, think people are sleeping a bit on crows performances since north game, been extremely average excluding freo game where one team decided not to turn up.

Blues gameplan compunds crows deficiencies aswell, relying on numbers behind the ball which seems to cause major issues for Adelaide.

 

[targett]

Port v Rich O162.5 B365

 

[iluvparis]

Taranto is out for GWS so wouldn't touch this game until lineups are out.

Hardly a line moving omission I would have thought Lensen

 

[Lensen]

Hardly a line moving omission I would have thought Lensen

probably worth 2-3 goals

 

[targett]

Yea right kicked 6 goals for the year

 

[X_box_X]

He was awful against Brisbane, even prior to getting injured.

 

[mookieb]

Seems to be a bit of hype around Melbourne having won 4 in a row. Personally I have some question marks over some of their recent wins with them being 6 goals down to GC at one stage, struggled to overcome Coll coming back from Perth and should have been 22 points down to WC in the last quarter.

Having 3 six day breaks in a row and coming back from Perth facing a team having won 6 of their last 7 and still fav? Think the schedule will count against them for this game.