AFL 2017 - AFL Round 22

[balmainforever]

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Adelaide |$1.65|$1.65|$1.64|$1.68|$1.65|$1.66
\Sydney |$2.25|$2.25|$2.25|$2.25|$2.30|$2.25
\|line:7.5|line:8.5|line:8.5|line:7.5|line:8.5|line:7.5
\total score:|169.5|169.5|168.5|167.5|170.5|168.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\West.Bulldogs |$1.90|$1.85|$1.81|$1.88|$1.87|$1.92
\Port Adelaide |$1.90|$1.96|$2.00|$1.96|$1.95|$1.92
\|line: PA2.5|line:WB1.5|line:WB2.5|line:WB1.5|line:WB1.5|line:N/L
\total score:|***.5|168.5|168.5|168.5|167.5|169.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Collingwood |$2.60|$2.60|$2.45|$2.65|$2.60|$2.65
\Geelong |$1.50|$1.50|$1.55|$1.50|$1.50|$1.49
\ |line:12.5|line:12.5|line:10.5|line:12.5|line:12.5|line:13.5
\total score:|***.5|167.5|168.5|169.5|169.5|170.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\G-W Sydney |$1.20|$1.24|$1.24|$1.25|$1.22|$1.24
\West Coast |$4.60|$4.10|$4.00|$4.10|$4.35|$4.10
\|line:29.5|line:29.5|line:28.5|line:27.5|line:28.5|line:29.5
\total score:|***.5|182.5|182.5|180.5|182.5|182.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Carlton |$3.55|$3.40|$3.35|$3.45|$3.35|$3.50
\Hawthorn |$1.30|$1.32|$1.32|$1.33|$1.33|$1.31
\|line:22.5|line:20.5|line:20.5|line:20.5|line:21.5|line:22.5
\total score:|177.5|180.5|179.5|179.5|180.5|180.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Gold Coast |$3.55|$3.21|$3.25|$3.25|$3.25|$3.35
\Essendon |$1.30|$1.35|$1.33|$1.36|$1.35|$1.33
\|line:23.5|line:22.5|line:24.5|line:22.5|line:23.5|line:22.5
\total score:|193.5|195.5|193.5|194.5|193.5|194.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Melbourne |$1.15|$1.16|$1.13|$1.15|$1.14|$1.15
\Brisbane |$5.50|$5.30|$5.75|$5.75|$5.75|$5.50
\|line:38.5|line:38.5|line:38.5|line:38.5|line:38.5|line:37.5
\total score:|195.5|194.5|193.5|193.5|195.5|193.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\St.Kilda |$1.40|$1.41|$1.40|$1.38|$1.40|$1.42
\North Melb. |$3.00|$2.95|$2.90|$3.15|$3.00|$2.90
\|line:17.5|line:17.5|line:17.5|line:18.5|line:17.5|line:16.5
\total score:|186.5|186.5|186.5|184.5|185.5|185.5

Game|TAB|Sportsbet|William Hill|Ladbrokes|Bet365|CrownBet
\Fremantle |$3.35|$3.05|$3.00|$3.15|$3.10|$3.30
\Richmond |$1.33|$1.39|$1.38|$1.38|$1.38|$1.34
\|line:19.5|line:19.5|line:20.5|line:19.5|line:20.5|line:21.5
\total score:|163.5|165.5|164.5|164.5|165.5|165.5

ODDS AT 16.45 ON 17/8/17

 

[Jammer]

Swans with a +10.5 start..
They are 12 and 2 since round 6
Their two loses have been to their nemesis
Both by a goal

Crows could rest sore players here plus their motivation will be questionable.
They have the home final already stiched up.

Throw in Swans match up against them well.

 

[Robo87]

i agree jammer, sydney usually match up well on us and they are in good form also. 50/50 game imo.
I like Ess Line, Richmond line, adel/syd - either under 24pts.

 

[mookieb]

Swans with a +10.5 start..
They are 12 and 2 since round 6
Their two loses have been to their nemesis
Both by a goal

Crows could rest sore players here plus their motivation will be questionable.
They have the home final already stiched up.

Throw in Swans match up against them well.

Personally would have thought this will be a blockbuster between the two form teams in the comp.

Suspect the resting of players will be limited because of the bye after round 23 and the concern about the top 4 teams having too many weeks off if they win first round of finals.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-08-14/crows-looking-for-redemption-against-swans

 

[langdon19]

Pies Cats O167.5 SB
GC Ess under 194.5 CR
Melb Bris U196.5 SB

 

[TheScream]

Pies Cats O167.5 SB
GC Ess under 194.5 CR
Melb Bris U196.5 SB

Like the 1st one as that game seems mostly dry. Not sure about the other 2. Brisbane especially is a big over team, why under?

i tried to bet Richmond/Freo under 180.5 at sportsbet but they declined it and it went down to 167.5 seconds later. Still think that's a bit high.

 

[langdon19]

Like the 1st one as that game seems mostly dry. Not sure about the other 2. Brisbane especially is a big over team, why under?

i tried to bet Richmond/Freo under 180.5 at sportsbet but they declined it and it went down to 167.5 seconds later. Still think that's a bit high.

I smashed the under 180, what a gift.
Bris Melb Ave 161point
Melb at mcg ave 165
Bris at MCG ave 176
Don't like that it's a day game with Bris but enough aligns for a shot

 

[Jammer]

Fair call Mookieb

I have the Swans as $2 shots in my market so the + 10.5 is fair overs
Crows at full strength or not

Coach talk is all fluff to me...
B interesting who runs out for crows on fri night

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Fair call Mookieb

I have the Swans as $2 shots in my market so the + 10.5 is fair overs
Crows at full strength or not

Coach talk is all fluff to me...
B interesting who runs out for crows on fri night

I think it'll be Adelaide's mindset to get the win on Friday night and secure top spot. It's going to be a very wet week in Adelaide, so the game is likely to be a real scrap. Adelaide's last game is against West Coast and it's at Domain, so I highly doubt Adelaide will field a top team when it means flying to WA, esp. when winning doesn't change the fact that they're minor premiers. For Adelaide, it's a dead rubber. The bye between finals aside, some of those Adelaide boys are sore. An extra week off will more than likely help them rather than hinder them. West Coast will need that home game win to "maybe" make the finals and it's also Priddis and Mitchell's send off game. West Coast are showing $2.20 at the moment. I'll take that! As soon as the above reasoning is worked out by the bookies, West Coast will end up favourites. It does all depend on Adelaide getting the win on Friday night though. Anyway, my two cents.

 

[FrankGrimes]

I think it'll be Adelaide's mindset to get the win on Friday night and secure top spot. It's going to be a very wet week in Adelaide, so the game is likely to be a real scrap. Adelaide's last game is against West Coast and it's at Domain, so I highly doubt Adelaide will field a top team when it means flying to WA, esp. when winning doesn't change the fact that they're minor premiers. For Adelaide, it's a dead rubber. The bye between finals aside, some of those Adelaide boys are sore. An extra week off will more than likely help them rather than hinder them. West Coast will need that home game win to "maybe" make the finals and it's also Priddis and Mitchell's send off game. West Coast are showing $2.20 at the moment. I'll take that! As soon as the above reasoning is worked out by the bookies, West Coast will end up favourites. It does all depend on Adelaide getting the win on Friday night though. Anyway, my two cents.

dont think there is much chance of Adelaide resting players, if they do and win first week means rested players would have played once in 5 weeks.. hardly ideal going into a prelim.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Any totals appealing like any unders likely to go lower due to wet weather.. didn't work for Eagles vs blues

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Any totals appealing like any unders likely to go lower due to wet weather.. didn't work for Eagles vs blues

Well, snow is a very real possibility for the Dogs/Port game...yes, SNOW! That'll teach 'em to play a game in Ballarat! http://www.3aw.com.au/western-bulldogs-and-port-adelaide-could-clash-in-the-snow/

 

[targett]

Line movement's Pin.
Crow's -5.5-8.5
Bomber's -21.5-24.5
Tiger's -9.5-18.5

 

[wizzard400]

Off topic from this round but Hawthorn to make finals @ $21 on Sportsbet. What do we think?

 

[iluvparis]

Off topic from this round but Hawthorn to make finals @ $21 on Sportsbet. What do we think?

Unders - squiggle estimates they are about a 3% chance so you'd want to be getting $33+

 

[wizzard400]

Unders - squiggle estimates they are about a 3% chance so you'd want to be getting $33+

What does that number take into account exactly? I'm not that familiar with squiggle. To be honest though I don't think $21 is too far off the mark considering what has to happen in order for the Hawks to make the 8.

For Hawthorn to make finals the following has to happen:

- Hawthorn beats both Carlton & Western Bulldogs
- West Coast lose to GWS & Adelaide
- Western Bulldogs lose to Port Adelaide & Hawthorn
- Essendon lose to one of Gold Coast or Fremantle
- St. Kilda lose to one of North Melbourne or Richmond

 

[iluvparis]

What does that number take into account exactly? I'm not that familiar with squiggle. To be honest though I don't think $21 is too far off the mark considering what has to happen in order for the Hawks to make the 8.

For Hawthorn to make finals the following has to happen:

- Hawthorn beats both Carlton & Western Bulldogs
- West Coast lose to GWS & Adelaide
- Western Bulldogs lose to Port Adelaide & Hawthorn
- Essendon lose to one of Gold Coast or Fremantle
- St. Kilda lose to one of North Melbourne or Richmond

It does about 10,000 simulations of match results and works out in how many of those simulations Hawthorn makes finals.

 

[Jugada]

What does that number take into account exactly? I'm not that familiar with squiggle. To be honest though I don't think $21 is too far off the mark considering what has to happen in order for the Hawks to make the 8.

For Hawthorn to make finals the following has to happen:

- Hawthorn beats both Carlton & Western Bulldogs
- West Coast lose to GWS & Adelaide
- Western Bulldogs lose to Port Adelaide & Hawthorn
- Essendon lose to one of Gold Coast or Fremantle
- St. Kilda lose to one of North Melbourne or Richmond

FWIW taking the current Sportsbet prices for the next 2 weeks all those results happening would get over $31 odds

 

[HumanMeatball]

Has anyone used free bonus bets to bet on both outcomes with different bookies for signing up and getting guaranteed money? Am I missing something and is this actually possible?

 

[Jugada]

Has anyone used free bonus bets to bet on both outcomes with different bookies for signing up and getting guaranteed money? Am I missing something and is this actually possible?

Probably wouldn't put the bonus bets on both sides as you wouldn't make as much, but yeah very easy to make a fair bit of guaranteed cash by judt laying off the bonuses at other bookies

 

[Jugada]

If you havent got any (or many) bookie accounts then i would definitely recommend doing it. Easiest couple grand you will ever make and an easy way to get a bankroll to start with

 

[Djoker]

Has anyone used free bonus bets to bet on both outcomes with different bookies for signing up and getting guaranteed money? Am I missing something and is this actually possible?

Yes but return on each bonus bet is less than 50c on the bonus dollar and I'm sure there are more efficient ways, and complicated, for guaranteed return/higher retention. You also then have to turn over your bonus bet winnings before you can withdrawal.

This weeks points pileup is Crows Swans.

 

[HumanMeatball]

If you havent got any (or many) bookie accounts then i would definitely recommend doing it. Easiest couple grand you will ever make and an easy way to get a bankroll to start with

I have a sports and crown account that's it. I'm a bit of a noob, so what the best way to do this if it's not to much of a hassle

 

[demon_fanatic]

Got a feeling the Bennell return
N last game at domain may lift Freo to a good performance and Richmond don't blow out teams often.. think they can cover 20.5?

 

[Sketi]

I think it'll be Adelaide's mindset to get the win on Friday night and secure top spot. It's going to be a very wet week in Adelaide, so the game is likely to be a real scrap. Adelaide's last game is against West Coast and it's at Domain, so I highly doubt Adelaide will field a top team when it means flying to WA, esp. when winning doesn't change the fact that they're minor premiers. For Adelaide, it's a dead rubber. The bye between finals aside, some of those Adelaide boys are sore. An extra week off will more than likely help them rather than hinder them. West Coast will need that home game win to "maybe" make the finals and it's also Priddis and Mitchell's send off game. West Coast are showing $2.20 at the moment. I'll take that! As soon as the above reasoning is worked out by the bookies, West Coast will end up favourites. It does all depend on Adelaide getting the win on Friday night though. Anyway, my two cents.

On the topic of motivation re Crows. Someone pointed out that they may be motivated to beat the Swans as to avoid them in week 1 and play a Richmond / Geelong. Swans win and they are a chance of finishing 4th.