AFL 2017 - AFL Round 22

Sabbathen

Club Legend
Aug 17, 2016
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If your into some psychological tipstering I have been doing some work for round 23.

Obviously this round differs in that it consists of some teams that will be finishing their season, teams under pressure to perform ie to make finals or top 4 and teams gearing up for finals. Last year saw some big blowouts with Rich and Melb both losing by over 110 points. Obviously with nothing to play for they "mailed it in". The last 5 seasons have seen at least 3 games with margins over 50 points, but no line for next week exceeds 50.

I suspect that the best situations are very good teams playing at home vs weak / young teams or teams under pressure to perform vs teams that are playing out a dead rubber.

Therefore I believe that Port vs GC is my bet of the round. Port are ruthless against weak teams at home (ave 50+ win vs teams outside the 8 in the last 2 years) and GC have been terrible - lost to Freo on the road by 4 goals, outscored by Bris by 80 points after qtr time and lost to Ess by 33 with 18 less scoring shots). In a normal round I would have Port winning this by 50+ points, but given it's the last round this could be a very big blowout.

Both Bris and NM won't make finals, but Bris are going great guns (thrashed their last 3 teams at home that are outside the 8) and NM are 1W 9L in their last ten. I think Bris will be keen to pounce on NM so I have them clear favs plus the potential for NM to be flat travelling in the last round.

Ess need to beat Freo to make finals and are clearly the better team playing at home. Alot to play for one team and nothing for the other. Same for Melb vs Coll. I'm expecting Coll to play some more youth and Adams is unlikely joining Pendles, Wells, Greenwood, Varcoe, De Goey and Fasolo on the injury list. They've run out of cattle. Melb need to win to make finals.

I think Carl season has finished on a high beating the Hawks. Feel this is a situation where they gear themselves up for their last win on the calendar then it's season done. They did it last year beating Melb in round 22 then being beaten easily by Ess in round 23.

Obviously not all teams have their mind on Mad Monday with some good performances in recent years such as Coll nearly beating the Hawks who needed to win to get the double chance.

I'm on Port -34.5 / -38.5, Ess -20.5, Melb -7.5, Bris H2H and Syd -46.5.

Round 23 thread isn't up yet and lines are moving so thought I would throw the post up now to see if anyone has an opinion.
Like your thinking mookieb, solid post.
Of those games in previous seasons that have gone over 50 points, how many of them were between teams playing finals vs teams with no chance of playing finals? The lines look solid and maybe a small wager on +50 too?
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
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Like your thinking mookieb, solid post.
Of those games in previous seasons that have gone over 50 points, how many of them were between teams playing finals vs teams with no chance of playing finals? The lines look solid and maybe a small wager on +50 too?
It looks like the best results come from weak teams playing interstate / away against top teams. Syd beat Rich by 113 at the SCG (line 55.5), Geel beat Melb by 111 at Skilled (line 35.5), StK beat Bris by 58 (line 54.5) - 2016. Port beat Freo by 69 in Ade (line 58.5), WC beat StK by 95 at Domain (line 53.5), Swans beat GC by 63 (line 53.5) - 2016.

I was thinking about betting Port -50, -60, -70 and so on with some bonus bets, but my only worry is that the new GC coach was talking about a new defensive game plan and I think they played pretty defensive with a couple of players back against Ess.

Get ready for some defence to be given up. High Tgs, Freo Carlt might concede more points than normal.
I didn't look at tgs, but over the last 2 years 7 winning teams scored 100+ in 2016 and 8 in 2015 in round 23. By comparison round 22 saw 4 and 6 teams respectively win with a score over 100 (2016 and 2015). Round 21 was 2 and 5 for the winning teams.

Small sample size obviously and might have been impacted by matchups or rain, but seems to indicate less pressure applied to winning teams which leads to higher scores.
 

demon_fanatic

Premiership Player
May 8, 2006
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bayswater
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I put 15 units on Freo game under 180.5, they stuffed up.
Obviously a little nervous.
I have it as a 160 point game
I can obviously set up a middle to cover some or the whole, although the under "should be safe"
It will be a big win if the under comes in
Bigger if the middle hits
Less if I middle and it misses
I also have plenty of time to live bet out Of trouble, say take over 178.5 at half time and kill any profit but not loose
Thinking of putting 5 units on the over.
Thoughts
What did you end up doing???
 
Aug 3, 2014
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i agree jammer, sydney usually match up well on us and they are in good form also. 50/50 game imo.
I like Ess Line, Richmond line, adel/syd - either under 24pts.
It's rounds like this i wish i was confident enough to also put these into a multi.. :rolleyes:

& Butler on the Siren!! had Butler 2g @4.25 and 3g @15, lost on Casgna2g and martin 3g,but cant post bet units post-game. thought Freo were going to fall but didnt think it would be their second 100pt belting in 2 weeks! Think Richmond may secure 4th spot now. rekon sydney 5th, Port 6th, Melbourne & Ess to round out the top 8.
 

BloodRet

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 25, 2013
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Dogs ****ed me

iknBa1K.png
 

bluesboy23

Rookie
Sep 10, 2017
42
23
Thomastown, Victoria
AFL Club
Carlton
Pies Cats O167.5 SB
GC Ess under 194.5 CR
Melb Bris U196.5 SB....

.....I smashed the under 180, what a gift.
I put 15 units on Freo game under 180.5, they stuffed up.
Obviously a little nervous.

It dropped to 167 after I dropped another 5 units on it.

Lost 4 units
Dirty weekend on the punt
Sorry, but I had to post this.

First of all, you're saying that you put 20 units on a Sportsbet early line? That is a 100% lie. Sportsbet early markets have a reputation as being extremely stingy, trust me I know. With the early markets, you're lucky to even get half a unit on. And you're saying you put TWENTY? Unless you're unit bet is $1, then that's BS

Secondly, you had 4 bets for the week:
Pies Cats O167.5
GC Ess under 194.5
Melb Bris U196.5
Freo Rich U180.5

You said you put 20 units on the Fremantle/Richmond game that went over, yet at the end of the round you're somehow only 4 units down?

Then, you also said:
"2/3 pretty much season norm for me
Melb Bris edge of seat stuff"

You missed out the Freo/Rich game that you put 20 units on....

I'm not attacking you or anything, and I know I'm only a new member, but coming from a different punting forum how do you explain this?
 

langdon19

Club Legend
Dec 2, 2008
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perth
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Mate I don't know how to Multi quote but here goes.
My unit bet is over $1, yes I hammered it, yes I double checked, yes it let me put more on. Calling it a lie/bullshit is an attack Imo.
As for 4 bets for the week, yes I did.
I posted 3 totals for the forum, 2 of 3 hit.
There was no point posting a 4th that was gone and was a bookie mistake. So anyone that tailed (not sure if anyone does/did) would have got 2/3.
Freo game cost me 4 units.
 

bluesboy23

Rookie
Sep 10, 2017
42
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Thomastown, Victoria
AFL Club
Carlton
Definitely not attacking at all. This sort of thing happened at my old forum. People posting tips and then not including loses at the end of rounds. you said:

"I put 15 units on Freo game under 180.5"

So, that to you isn't an "official" pick?

You also said:

"I put 15 units on Freo game under 180.5, they stuffed up"

then later you said:

"It dropped to 167 after I dropped another 5 units on it."

that's 20 units in total...

Again, this is not an attack, these are quotes from you...
 

bluesboy23

Rookie
Sep 10, 2017
42
23
Thomastown, Victoria
AFL Club
Carlton
Not going to bother
I'll stop posting
Don't stop posting. Your obviously a good fella and know about betting, it's just tips for future reference. Again, I'm only a new member here so to be honest I probably don't even have the right to even throw my 2 cents in but I do know a lot about betting so it's a little warranted, only trying to give you some tips for future bets that's all.
 
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