AFL 2017 - AFL Round 5

[mookieb]

Really like the look of Collingwood today. Under pressure last year (when a loss probably would have seen the end of Bucks) they had some really good wins against Ess on Anzac Day and Brisbane on the road (albeit moderate opposition). Started really strongly which I expect will happen today. Get Wells back and Elliott has another run. Grundy to dominate the stoppages and with the wet it should mainly come down to the midfield where they should dominate.

Also don't like Woosha comments about how some of the returning players may have "hit the wall". Gives the team a bit of an out if they don't win.

1u Coll win $1.78, 1u Coll -2,5, 0.5u Adams +11.5 over Treloar (should get a mountain of tackles), 0.5u Coll win / Sidebottom 25+ possies $3, 0.25u BB Coll 36+ points 1st qtr (placed early in the week - should have looked at the weather) and 0.25u Grundy Anzac Medallist at $21 (powered).

 

[Bic]

Collingwood shouldn't be 13.5 point favorites. For that reason I'm on the Dons.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Daniher 6+ goals $30 @ 15

 

[benno_]

1.25U Merrett over 109.5 DT @1.87 Lux

0.35U Merrett under 116.5 DT @1.87 SB (max I'm allowed with them)
0.95U Merrett under 115.5 DT @1.87 Lads

Just a small 6-7 point middle so not loading up on it considering how varied DT scores can be, risking 0.16U for potentially 2.17U profit.

 

[Keystone agony]

1.25U Merrett over 109.5 DT @1.87 Lux

0.35U Merrett under 116.5 DT @1.87 SB (max I'm allowed with them)
0.95U Merrett under 115.5 DT @1.87 Lads

Just a small 6-7 point middle so not loading up on it considering how varied DT scores can be, risking 0.16U for potentially 2.17U profit.

I basically used a golden rule of a 10 point middle for fantasy but dependa on players with more consistancy to mids ect but use to always want a 10 point middle.

Good luck

 

[Jelly85]

Just came across this forum and as a small punter live the discussion. Dumb question - when you talk in "units" what amouts are you talking about?

 

[benno_]

Just came across this forum and as a small punter live the discussion. Dumb question - when you talk in "units" what amouts are you talking about?

Varies for each person, basically just what your standard average stake would be. Some people on here 1 unit could be $5, some $10, $50, $100, $200 etc.

 

[benno_]

I basically used a golden rule of a 10 point middle for fantasy but dependa on players with more consistancy to mids ect but use to always want a 10 point middle.

Good luck

Yeah not really expecting it to win especially with someone like Merrett who can have a range of anywhere from 90-150 on any given week. Don't really have many bets on this game so going smallish on it and just doing it as a bit of fun and will see what happens haha

 

[Keystone agony]

1 unit is usually consideres a % of Bank roll. Ie could 1% of bank or 10% as an example.

I usually keep it simple with 1U = $100

 

[Keystone agony]

Yeah not really expecting it to win especially with someone like Merrett who can have a range of anywhere from 90-150 on any given week. Don't really have many bets on this game so going smallish on it and just doing it as a bit of fun and will see what happens haha

Which companies have you seen doing DT

Ladbrokes
Lux relase hour til game time and limited
Sportsbet
Crownbet

The latter the main 2

Anyone else

 

[mookieb]

Yeah not really expecting it to win especially with someone like Merrett who can have a range of anywhere from 90-150 on any given week. Don't really have many bets on this game so going smallish on it and just doing it as a bit of fun and will see what happens haha

Jumped on as well. Small bet to add a bit of interest and see if I can finally hit a middle...

 

[benno_]

Which companies have you seen doing DT

Ladbrokes
Lux relase hour til game time and limited
Sportsbet
Crownbet

The latter the main 2

Anyone else

Unibet and willhill but they don't usually offer a lot of options, pointsbet do something too i think, but I haven't used them.

I use crown probably 85% of the time now since SB limited me last week.

 

[Keystone agony]

$193 Jobe >99.5 @2.10
$203 Jobe <99.5 @2

Pies win for mw today and pretty comfortable ~4 goals

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Stanton for the medal @ $38??

 

[targett]

Light rain falling at the G so Middling U169.5 TAB along with O156.5 T.B

 

[Spads]

Not much rain on the radar. Don't mind the over 166.5. 1U added.

 

[jack 23]

treloar medal
pies win
multi

 

[targett]

Live Bet second half total U76.50 2.40 Pinny O75.5 1.95 B365

 

[X_box_X]

Daniher 6+ goals $30 @ 15

Mate you are ******* stiff.

 

[X_box_X]

Live Bet second half total U76.50 2.40 Pinny O75.5 1.95 B365

Thata boy

I hope your bet gets up.

I got odds of $2.21 v $2.05 for over 160.5 and under 160.5 using Tab Touch and UBET at Half Time.

Monitor those totals at 3/4 time - I reckon you might be able to get an arb. Focus on point totals for 160.5 and 170.5.

 

[ricardogp]

Trying another double today... Collingwood / over 165.5

1u @ $2.80 (SB + power play)


Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

If it's not one thing it's the other...

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

 

[Infra Ted]

Why is the other thread locked?

 

[benno_]

0.35U Kade Simpson @3.75 - 'Golden Oldies' DT Group (Simpson, Hodge, Sandi, Boyd, B.Murphy, Kelly, Burgoyne, Mackie)
EDIT: chucked another 0.35U on him @3.50.

Simpson group bet came through

0.1U Bombers 1-39, Fasolo most goals, Heppell most disposals @181

1.1U Adams +14.5 DT > Treloar @1.88

Treloar dominated so that bet was lost by quarter time, the long shot multi didn't have much of a chance and Merrett went well over the middle.

Pretty average weekend, just over -5U overall. Made a few stupid bets that cost me badly (hindsight is always helpful ) and had a couple of unlucky DT bets. Could have been worse though.

 

[X_box_X]

Jugada X_box_X

When do i know if a middle is worth it - im looking at disposal markets and have a 2 disposal gap with one paying 1.60 and the other 1.95

Is their a special formula

Let's summarise this.

Let's assume your disposals middle is 24.5 - 26.5.

Over 24.5 paying $1.60
Under 26.5 paying $1.95

$122 on over 24.5 disposals at $1.60 to return $195.20
$100 on under 26.5 disposals at $1.95 to return $195

The first bet will make a profit of $73.20 if successful, while the second part of the bet return you $95 if successful. If the middle hits, your profit will be $168.20 (the profit of those two bets combined). If your middle is unsuccessful, you will lose either $26.80 or $27. The mean of these losses is $26.90.

To work out your effective odds, we need to divide the mean of your losses by your profit is successful.

This will be effective odds of $6.25.

If a bookie offered you odds of $6.25 that a player will get either 25 or 26 disposals, will you take those odds? That will answer your question to determine if the middle is value.

Let's now compare $1.90 lines on a two gap middle for disposals.

If you place $100 on each outcome, your liability is $10 while your potential profit if $180. This gives you effective odds of $18.

If a bookie offered you odds of $18 that a player will get either 25 or 26 disposals, will you take those odds? Obviously for a player like Zac Dawson, this is a big no no, but for a midfielder who averages between 22 and 31 disposals, especially those with a low standard deviation, this is good value.

 

[George N]

Medal.

Daniher $20 @ 21
Goddard $20 @ 17

Essendon 20-39 - $50 @ 7.50

WOW - well done mate!!! and only 1 goal off the margin! woweeee