2018 Australian Open

benno_

All Australian
Sep 17, 2015
681
740
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Perth Wildcats
Yeah that's what i've been thinking. I think Melbourne will win (Brisbane got rolled by 33 already in the first leg), so that's whats really tempting me to go with it. But I think the smart move is probably just to hedge/arb it out and guarantee at least the turned over bonuses from it.

I'm expecting Melb to shorten more before tip off so might even wait until later and see what Brisbane's price drifts out to before arbing.

Now to make things interesting Brisbane have just sacked an import before tonights game. Blown out to $2.60 and could go even higher. Part of me wants to let it ride now that Brisbane are an import down. In saying that his last 3 games have been terrible and it might have been better for me if he played lol
 
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benno_

All Australian
Sep 17, 2015
681
740
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Perth Wildcats
$5 Monfils, $1 Williams and a few 50c spins.

Spun $1 on Karlovic but cashed out thinking it might not be worth it if he loses, especially in only a few sets. So I'm hoping he doesn't get too many aces now lol
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Spun $1 on Karlovic but cashed out thinking it might not be worth it if he loses, especially in only a few sets. So I'm hoping he doesn't get too many aces now lol

if you could bet on every game and result it would only take 3x55c Aces to break even on the tournament.

honestly just back any mens game whoever serves more aces unless they're over $7 and let the prices/percentages do their work, don't even bother trying to pick the winner unless you're a tennis betting pro.
 

benno_

All Australian
Sep 17, 2015
681
740
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Perth Wildcats
if you could bet on every game and result it would only take 3x55c Aces to break even on the tournament.

honestly just back any mens game whoever serves more aces unless they're over $7 and let the prices/percentages do their work, don't even bother trying to pick the winner unless you're a tennis betting pro.

Good point, my theory was if he loses in 3 with only like 30 aces, by the time I turn it over it wouldn't be worth it. Although I guess I could have used it as a free shot of him winning and the profit from that, but didn't think it seemed likely.
 

scottyt2

Senior List
Aug 21, 2006
249
193
melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
$5 Monfils, $1 Williams and a few 50c spins.

Spun $1 on Karlovic but cashed out thinking it might not be worth it if he loses, especially in only a few sets. So I'm hoping he doesn't get too many aces now lol
Why not hedge on another site, get your money back if Thiem wins and lose $7-8 if Karlovic wins.
 

Fuzzy Happy Poo

All Australian
Jul 11, 2013
867
752
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Collingwood
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Flyers, 76ers, Eagles, Phillies
the vig for the the australian open matches on william hill is generally a little higher than 5%, so say you lose $1.30 value on every bet. if you're are getting 50c bonus bet for every ace and say you only convert that to cash for bout 60%, so really you're getting 30c for every ace, so they play only needs to get 5 aces for it to be +ev, granted it will be +20c of ev. a massive +00.8% ROI :) but say Karlovic who regularly gets 20 aces which is $10 bonus bets and $6 a game which makes betting on karlovic +$4.70 ev, +18% ROI. so if you're selective on who you're betting on it's still relatively profitable
 

jimbler

Club Legend
Mar 5, 2006
1,463
2,532
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
up to around 20 in a row here. i've done everything i can to show the computer in charge at WH promo management that i am a mug, erratic betting patterns, bonus bets wasted on random greyhound races, then using my oz open bank to recoup losses on random trot races with only partial success but nope, still giving me 50c. Cmon WH you know im going to give it all back, just give me the thrill of rolling a $10 or $5, heck even a 2 would be a thing of joy right now!!

Next time I spin up $1

200.gif
 
A couple of first round multies combined with a total of four futures bets.

Dimitrov win Aus Open at $75 w Betfair

Raonic Q3 winner into Konta Q4 winner at $18.75 w Topsport

MULTI: Murray Q1 winner into Muguruza Q1 winner at $8.31 w Ozbet

Monfils win Q3 at $16 w TAB

All of these still alive and kicking.
 

gothedons

Team Captain
Oct 4, 2004
594
143
Darwin
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Essendon
Day 4: +2 +38
Day 5: +66 +44

Overall balance: +54
Bonus Bets: +980

Day 6:
Raonic, Pliskova, Williams 50c
Karlovic $2
Zverev $5 (have a feeling he is a decent shot v Nadal)

Day 6:
-39 +167 (Zverev 95/Karlokic 50)

Overall balance: +15
Bonus Bets: +1147

Day 7:
Thiem, Murguzura, Murray, Wawrinka 50c
Tsonga $2
 
Aug 14, 2005
2,171
3,034
NoR
AFL Club
West Coast
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lakers, nufc, subi, colts
after putting on bets for day 7, up to 32 consecutive 50c "spins". Even chucked in a no serve female to test the waters but still 50c comes up. Stats for those playing along as follows.

0.5 - 48/71 = 68% (86%)
1 - 19/71 = 27% (5%)
2 - 3/71 = 4% (5%)
5 - 1/71 = 1% (3%)
10- 0/71 = 0% (1%)

Despite my below average 50c return and above average 1 dollar return i am still averaging a lower than expected $ per ace average. It should be 83c per ace over 100 spins, according to the T and C's, I am going at a 76c per ace average. Bottom line, throw a 5 or 10 my way WH to get me at the 83c per ace average to give some legitimacy to your numbers!!
 
Felt the itch to have a roll on Fed as I reckon he is good odds given his current form, but rolled up 0.50c... standard.

Thought what the heck as I still had $75 or so left in my account as profits after I withdrew my bulk initial stake I was playing with from Day 1, so I rolled on Wawrinka and got $2 and $1 on Tsonga! The tide is turning!

Btw does anyone know where in your account it says particular bonus bets expire? And for those bonus bets we won last Monday, would they expire at 11.59pm tomorrow (Monday) night?
 
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