Analysis 2017 Chicken Little thread

[ShanDog]

I'm still very bullish and positive about the direction we are headed in. Bolts and SOS's focus now has to be on adding depth to the midfield, and crafting a functional and highly effective forward line.

McKay, Kerr and Jaksch must be played from here on to a) see where they're at; b) get senior games into them, and c) start to develop an attack that can regularly kick 100 points a game. There's only so far our current plan of defense, defense, defense will get us. Our back line is solid and sorted for 10 years. Simpson, Docherty, Weitering, Marchbank, Williamson, ASOS, Jones, Plowman, Macreadie and Byrne would be the envy of just about every other team. Maybe need only a small lockdown defender.

Our midfield lacks depth and grunt. It's really only Cripps that is a contested ball winner. Murphy and Gibbs are both excellent on their day, but not getting any younger. Ed Curnow is great, but will never win a Brownlow. Fisher, SPS, Pickett, Polson and Cuningham have a lot of development to go. Understandable given their age. That's pretty damn thin, even thinner if Gibbs packs his bags off to Adelaide at years end.

Up forward though is a tragedy. Cas is a great contested mark, but that's about it. JSOS and CCurnow look like gems, but need another 50 games in them. We need at least another key forward. We need at least another third tall. And we need at least a quality small forward (that being said, I do have high hopes LeBois will come on).

Looking at our senior list as I type this, barring a Liam Jones-type miracle, I see no future in the Seniors for Buckley, Kerridge, Boekhorst, Smedts, Jacksh, Sumner, Palmer, Armfield, Gorringe or White. That's 10. On the Rookie list, you'd have to think that Glass-McKasker, Gallucci and Korcheck may be seeking opportunities elsewhere in 2018. There's another 3. I doubt all will go at the end of the year, as we need senior bodies to help protect the kids and ensure a strong Norther Blues, but many will go.

Whilst that does sound a little bleak, we are on the up. We just don't have the cattle, and the cattle we do have are really quite young. We require patience, and lots. What Bolt's and SOS have done in two years has been pretty incredible, but we are at least two years (realistically probably four years) away from really giving things a shake.

So, 2018 starting line up (assuming Gibbs goes) (bolded players I wouldn't consider certain best 22 yet):

FB: Weitering -- Jones -- Plowman
HB: Marchbank -- ASOS -- Williamson

C: Cuningham -- ECurnow -- Docherty
R: Kreuzer -- Cripps -- Murphy

HF: JSOS -- Casboult -- CCurnow
FF: LeBois -- McKay -- Fisher

Int: SPS -- Simpson -- Byrne -- Wright

Agree with this. I reckon SOS etc are well aware of what we need and what we are seeing is 100% expected. We went tall for the first couple years of our drafts rebuilding. Mids are the next focus, particularly through getting some quality trades or free agents in the next year or two. We'll see dividends, no doubt.

 

[SanMan75]

The sooner some of you realize that producing the intensity required to win an afl game is IMPOSSIBLE to maintain for ANY team for the whole season, the more you will enjoy all the good the boys are producing at the moment. For crying out loud take a look at the ladder, tis competition is beyond ruthless.
We are waaaaay ahead of expectation, take joy from it....

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

There were 11 players who had less than 10 possessions, 7 from Carlton and 4 from Richmond.. There is the difference, too many players doing not enough.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

The sooner some of you realize that producing the intensity required to win an afl game is IMPOSSIBLE to maintain for ANY team for the whole season, the more you will enjoy all the good the boys are producing at the moment. For crying out loud take a look at the ladder, tis competition is beyond ruthless.
We are waaaaay ahead of expectation, take joy from it....

100% agree, however not calling out poor performances from both players and coaches breeds complacency.

 

[P_Crippy]

Throwaway line that's rarely accurate or coming from a place of knowledge.

Read this so many times in game day thread but no on e put forward why?

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Concerns:

• Even judging McKay as a first year player, we'd have wanted him to have made it into the 1s by now - a severely undersized JSOS made it in last year.
• Weitering has seemed timid at times.
• SPS looked disinterested yesterday and given the huge adjustment to Melbourne life I'm terrified of him going off the rails.
• Murph and Gibbs are protecting and mentoring the kids, but are they also showing them how to do just enough to avoid criticism and coast along, as they have so expertly done at stages in their careers?
• Given that our competition for Hopper is a top four side in Geelong do we have a plan B to resuscitate the midfield, and will we be able to do so before Murph Krooz and Gibbs drop off and leave us in no mans land?

Disagree about Harry, he'll be fine and I wouldn't have necessarily expected him to play by now. Hoped maybe, but not expected.
SPS has played 12 out of 13 games with little preparation. Sure, his form is tapering off a little, but is that not to be expected from a just-turned-19yo with 12 games under his belt? He's still undersized and we can't expect him to play every game in his first year and be at the level that earned an RS nom every week. He's probably at that point now where you have to decide if he has slightly more extended rest in the VFL to play another half dozen or so senior games at the end of the year, or if you just keep pumping games into him at senior level and risk burning him out or wrecking his confidence with some below par outings. Personally I'd give a run of maybe 3 games in the VFL and then bring him back.

Weitering I'm not concerned about, but I did notice yesterday that he kind of ducked his head in a marking 'contest' because he seemed to be expecting some contact. Not massively concerning, but it didn't look great and I say 'contest' because he actually took the mark uncontested with nobody around him.

 

[Smalls0304]

The out coached stuff is absolute crap. Their midfield just worked way harder than ours, they kept catching us on the spread and once that happens you can't blame the backline for not stopping their forwards marking it when there is no pressure on the ball carrier. We just looked flat, we will see this occasionally for the next couple of years with a young list. I expect we'll turn up against adelaide. Would've liked to see Weitering go forward earlier though.

 

[Styxx]

Usually i would agree but none of our kids had any impact on the game yesterday.

Charlie can hold his head up from yesterday, I was mainly referring to the year in general.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Charlie can hold his head up from yesterday, I was mainly referring to the year in general.

Charlie was awesome yesterday, one of his best games.

 

[gab213]

Charlie was awesome yesterday, one of his best games.

The kid has the potential to turn into a real excitement machine, could be something very special.

 

[Metalcrusher]

I'm not concerned at all, but I think there's a little merit in it. We were caught out of position all day and didn't seem to get into our structure quick enough. The defence was doing reasonably well under the circumstances, but they had free men leading into space with defenders a few steps behind and sometimes not even near it to say boo. If Richmond had kicked straight, it would have been ugly. Now players shoulder a fair bit of responsibility there, but it clearly wasn't working and adjustments needed to be made. Did we make adjustments? I'm not sure that we did and if we did, they didn't really work.
I don't see a problem in the opinion that he was out-coached. Can't expect him to win the battle of the tactics all the time. Excluding the Hawks games, he's only 35 games into a head coaching gig.
It's not the end of the world, but he shouldn't be immune to scrutiny either.

Which is why I alluded to Bolts being out coached. The team seemed slow to react to positional changes of the opposition. I think Bolts will grow from this. He is avid in his pursuit of education, we have had the same cattle on the park +/- a few .... yet Richmond (apart from the 1st quarter) looked to have our measure all day.

And I said we weren't "ON" 47 tackles to a 2017 average of 72 (I think from memory). We were either cooked or Bolts couldn't get the team firing. Whatever reason apart from the first quarter ..... the score board flattered us.

This is to be expected with a young side with a young coach. However, that does NOT excuse out elder estatesmen. Murphy and Gibbs had howlers no matter what the stat sheet said.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

Which is why I alluded to Bolts being out coached. The team seemed slow to react to positional changes of the opposition. I think Bolts will grow from this. He is avid in his pursuit of education, we have had the same cattle on the park +/- a few .... yet Richmond (apart from the 1st quarter) looked to have our measure all day.

And I said we weren't "ON" 47 tackles to a 2017 average of 72 (I think from memory). We were either cooked or Bolts couldn't get the team firing. Whatever reason apart from the first quarter ..... the score board flattered us.

This is to be expected with a young side with a young coach. However, that does NOT excuse out elder estatesmen. Murphy and Gibbs had howlers no matter what the stat sheet said.

Honestly think - if you look at it carefully you'll realise we were probably just out of legs. SPS problem may well have been the ankle that kept him out for a couple flaring up, reports Ed Curnow tweaked his knee, Lamb (obviously), Murph looks to be carrying a shoulder injury - quite possibly responsible for his form dip, thats a lot of run in our team missing or at sub par levels, then include Smedts who has 0 confidence, Boekhorst who looked like a school kid, Graham who isn't fast enough to defensively run on a fast turnover and Pickett who seems to have minimal confidence and had no preseason. Don't think any of that translates to Bolts inability to get us firing, combination of bad luck and players who didn't step up.

Gibbs didn't have a howler, he did plenty for a team that had 3 effective midfielders (kreuz, cripps and gibbs). Can't expect any more of him when the majority of the rest of the runners in the team were struggling.

 

[mediumsizered]

Since this is the chicken little thread, at what point does Weitering over Clayton Oliver become a thing...

I mean, I like Weitering and he will be a good player for us. But Oliver is unprecedented...

Let's see now. In our previous 3 games Weitering kept Ben Brown to 1 goal, Jeremy Cameron 0 & 2 metre Peter to 1 goal kicked in the dying moments of our win against the Suns. I think he will be alright.

 

[thylacine60]

all without fainting........

 

[Metalcrusher]

I am still fathoming why half way through a reset/rebuild/ground up renovation what ever the catch phrase is .......... there is need for a sky is falling thread?!?!!?

 

[Metalcrusher]

Since this is the chicken little thread, at what point does Weitering over Clayton Oliver become a thing...

I mean, I like Weitering and he will be a good player for us. But Oliver is unprecedented...

This unprecedented Oliver??

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/ol...n/news-story/5712c14bb175948681dbf9033fe28298

 

[Nostalgia]

It was not the loss but the terrible skills, awareness and decision making that made this disappointing. We lost our structure far too much.

Well according to Lobby Lloyd ( Matty the Smiling Assassin) Bolts style is to park the bus in the other side's forward. According to Gerard Healy Hardwick parked his bus against ours. Work that out!

 

[Nostalgia]

He's actually had a very average year to be honest.

Love his composure but he doesn't have Rance's attack on the ball or ferociousness.

He will be a great player but not sure he is the messiah people have been spruiking.

Rance is 10 years older plus he is a 7th Day Adventurist! Aka A religious nutter. Maybe Weiters needs to join a fundamental Christian church - Praise The Lord

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Well according to Lobby Lloyd ( Matty the Smiling Assassin) Bolts style is to park the bus in the other side's forward. According to Gerard Healy Hardwick parked his bus against ours. Work that out!

I give up.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

He's actually had a very average year to be honest.

Love his composure but he doesn't have Rance's attack on the ball or ferociousness.

He will be a great player but not sure he is the messiah people have been spruiking.

Pretty sure Rance wasn't travelling that we'll early either. From 2009-2011 he was a bit of a whipping boy.

 

[mediumsizered]

Pretty sure Rance wasn't travelling that we'll early either. From 2009-2011 he was a bit of a whipping boy.

In fact he was one player you were always happy to give the ball to because he would always give it back, generally close enough to goal to guarantee maximum return.

Well according to Lobby Lloyd ( Matty the Smiling Assassin) Bolts style is to park the bus in the other side's forward. According to Gerard Healy Hardwick parked his bus against ours. Work that out!

No wonder it was so hard to score yesterday. Whose idea was it to park the buses on the ground? Surely there was room in the car park.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I am still fathoming why half way through a reset/rebuild/ground up renovation what ever the catch phrase is .......... there is need for a sky is falling thread?!?!!?

Henny Penny?

 

[Jabba73]

Well according to Lobby Lloyd ( Matty the Smiling Assassin) Bolts style is to park the bus in the other side's forward. According to Gerard Healy Hardwick parked his bus against ours. Work that out!

Is that a euphemism for something?

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Rance is 10 years older plus he is a 7th Day Adventurist! Aka A religious nutter. Maybe Weiters needs to join a fundamental Christian church - Praise The Lord

I'd love a 7 day adventure. Where do I sign up?

 

[Toddski]

Rance is 10 years older plus he is a 7th Day Adventurist! Aka A religious nutter. Maybe Weiters needs to join a fundamental Christian church - Praise The Lord

LOL!! No religious nutters at Carlton please.