Prediction 2017: Contenders?

Discussion in 'Fremantle' started by Grandstan, May 17, 2017.

Put it out there
  1. Walshy1

    Walshy1 Debutant

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    I think what Lyon said on the couch was the best way to put it.

    Looking for growth over wins (Bigger picture)
     
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  2. PurpleEyes

    PurpleEyes Team Captain

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    There are good reasons why people think Sandilands is the be all and end all.
    Since the start of the 2015 season, Freo have won 24 of the 36 games Sandilands has played in.
    Freo have won just 3 of the 18 games in which Sandilands has not played in.

    During that time, in those games when Sandilands has 50 or more hit outs, Freo have won 9 of the 11. The only 2 losses were against West Coast in games where Freo were reamed by the umpiring. In those 50 or more hit out games, the midfield differential total statistics are, HitOuts +447, Clearances +80, Centre Clearances +42, Inside50s +117.

    Only the uneducated does not respect just how dominating and important Sandilands is to Freo.
     
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  3. jedi mind tricks

    jedi mind tricks Norm Smith Medallist

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    Mathematically a chance for top spot. Realistically between 8 and 10.
     
  4. prpl_jss

    prpl_jss Club Legend

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    Don't compare me to that pillock. Merely stating a fact, his hitouts don't correspond to centre clearance domination. We regularly lose centre clearances.
     
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  5. PurpleEyes

    PurpleEyes Team Captain

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    Struth some of you people are frustrating.
    The stats are in complete contradiction to your statement.
    When Sandilands plays and dominates the Hit Outs, Freo also dominate the centre clearances.
    My previous post shows statistics that prove this beyond any doubt.

    Please stop posting such idiotic comments that have no data to support them.
     
  6. prpl_jss

    prpl_jss Club Legend

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    Enough with the personal insults.

    I'll use your own precious stats to back up my observations: HitOuts +447, Clearances +80

    That's 17% of clearances won due to those hit out wins. That's not a high percentage.

    What frustrates me the most about Sandi is that he could be massively better than he is - it's the wasted potential.
     
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  7. PurpleEyes

    PurpleEyes Team Captain

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    If you look at my history, I rarely if ever post personal insults.
    But your post deserves it.
    And now you want to make an argument that winning clearances by +80 in 11 games is not dominating.
    Seriously dude, you need to learn something about football statistics and what they mean.

    The stats that I see for Sandilands when he plays, makes me comfortable in saying ... there is no player currently in the AFL who has as big an influence on a games result as what Sandilands does ... and I have data to support that. So please go away and pick another Freo player to criticise.
     
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  8. prpl_jss

    prpl_jss Club Legend

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    Firstly, you joined in 2013 like the bandwagoner that you appear to be. Secondly, I was here first. Thirdly, If you don't think Sandilands is a frustrating player, and has only become more consistent in the last 4-5 years then you're just proving point 1. Lastly, I could not give two shits about statistics.

    It is not opinion that Sandi regularly hits it to a stupid place, at his feet or handballs to a player about to be tackled. Newsflash: 211 isn't perfect. I didn't say he was shit. I just said we would not go winless for the rest of the season if he went down.

    If I can't criticise a fremantle player on the fremantle board after being a member for 20 years, where the **** can I?
     
  9. PurpleEyes

    PurpleEyes Team Captain

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    The statistical correlation between Sandilands winning Hit Outs and Freo winning the clearances is so strong, that only an uneducated supporter could think different. The fact that you "could not give two shits about statistics" tells me that you are uneducated regarding Sandilands and worse still, unwilling to be educated.

    Good luck with all your ridiculous and totally unsupported opinions in the future.

    PS: I have followed Fremantle from the day I heard Neesham was to be their inaugural coach. I was also a proud member who went to all home games I could in 2000 & 2001 ... so no, even your bandwagoner comment is just as wrong as your opinions about Sandilands.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2017
  10. prpl_jss

    prpl_jss Club Legend

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    The myopia is next level.

    OK Rainman, let's have a look at some stats.

    2017
    Hitouts: Fremantle: 428
    Hitouts: Gold Coast: 321

    Ctr Clearances: Fremantle: 118
    Ctr Clearances: Gold Coast: 140

    Ratio of Hitout to Ctr Clearance: Fremantle: 0.27
    Ratio of Hitout to Ctr Clearance: Gold Coast: 0.43 or nearly twice as high.

    If Sandi was so good, and our midfield was as good as we profess it to be, we wouldn't be 22 clearances behind ******* gold coast with 107 more hit outs now would we? Or is our midfield just shithouse and Sandi is constantly let down by our spudlike AA studded, brownlow winning, record breaking, league benchmark midfield brigade?
     
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  11. PurpleEyes

    PurpleEyes Team Captain

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    So far this season, 5 of Freo's 8 games have been against teams currently in the top 8.
    That is worth noting because all of the current top 8 teams have played less top 8 teams than Freo has. West Coast have played 4 and the rest have played 3 or less.

    If I try to place a value on the quality of the opposition that Freo has so far played this season, by using the current ladder positions, Freo's opposition total after 8 rounds is 64 (that is, GE 5 + PA 4 + WB 8 + ME 10 + NM 16 + WC 3 + ES 11 + RI 7 = 64). The lower the total the harder a teams first 8 rounds has been (assuming the current ladder is an indication of the quality of the opposition). Teams in the Top 8 have totals ranging from 73 to 95 (current ladder leader Adelaide is 76). So it's fair to say that Freo have done very well to currently be 9th given the opposition they have so far played.
     
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  12. Arcassius

    Arcassius Team Chaplain

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    Pillock here reporting in. #gettinginearly

    I agree that Sandilands is a dominant force. He could be better though :) There are still instances where he palms down in front of him predictably right into the arms of an opposition player running through, or a spike for variation that lands with the HB sweeping forward at the centre bounce. Some of that's related to him, some of it to the midfield setup at the ball up.

    I'd be curious to know what the hitouts to advantage is for the rucks in the comp as a percentage of total hitouts. And also the shark rate. I'm sure he's up there (for the former), but the effectiveness of the hitout is probably a clearer indication of pure ruck dominance than the clearance rate which has other influencing factors

    Take the most recent game for example where we lost the clearances against Richmond 35-25, despite winning the hitouts 47-23.
     
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  13. PurpleEyes

    PurpleEyes Team Captain

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    So now somebody who "could not give two shits about statistics" tries to support a dumb argument with some very poor use of statistics.
    Ctr Clearances are only possible at Centre bouncedowns (start of games or after a goal scored). Gold Coast has had at least 30 more bounce downs than Freo have so far in 2017.
    Freo have had 22 more stoppages than Gold Coast. So Freo has had more opportunity to have higher Hit Outs than Gold Coast ... again devaluing your stupid ratio of Hitout to Ctr Clearance.
    Never mind the fact that Gold Coast have 2 players currently in the top 6 for centre clearances, Ablett 3rd and Lyon 6th. Freo's highest ranked is Fyfe 10th. Fyfe and Neale have started the season slowly. Mundy has been spending time forward and Walters is a new addition to Freo's midfield.

    Your opinions about Sandilands are wrong ... just like your pathetic excuse for some kind of stats to support your dumb argument.
     
  14. _Wildcard_

    _Wildcard_ Club Legend

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    Well, if we're here after a couple of pages tentatively thinking we might have a chance of playing finals, I'd say the rebuild is going quite well so far
     
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  15. PurpleEyes

    PurpleEyes Team Captain

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    I often see this opinion regarding Sandilands. The one along the lines of ... given Sandilands size and the number of hitouts he has, he should be doing better. But the facts are, statistically he is doing better than any other ruckman in the modern era. So that comment is like saying Josh Kennedy is an ok Full Forward ... but he's kicked 19 points this year that could have been goals if he kicked straighter.

    Even though I posted earlier how in games when Sandilands has 50 or more hitouts (11 times) Freo dominates the midfield stats (ie. HitOuts +447, Clearances +80, Centre Clearances +42, Inside50s +117), people think they can pick one game to argue against it.

    Year after year I hear and read AFL news about the current best ruckman. Whether it's Nic Nat, Goldstein, Gawn, Mumford, Grundy or whoever, the statistical facts are that when they come up against Sandilands, as far as ruck work goes, most of the time he beats them. Yet we somehow feel that he still deserves criticism and that he should do better because of his size. I just wish people would do some good research and then they might just appreciate just how good Sandilands is. And when I say research, you not only need to look at his HitOuts and his influence on Freo's midfield stats, but you also need to respect the impact he has on the opposition's ruckman and their midfield.

    BTW, I just quickly watched the first half of the RI vs FR game, forwarding through to each of the centre bounce downs to watch those. Sandilands won virtually all of them, tapping to the advantage of Freo players, but often they were quickly tackled prior to getting a clean clearance. Taberner took 2 of the Centre Rucks and Richmond had two very clean and easy clearances.
     
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  16. Unique Name

    Unique Name Premiership Player

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    Ok Mrs Sandilands.
     
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  17. Clems Knee

    Clems Knee Norm Smith Medallist

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    Interesting that you called out the post below this for personal abuse because PurpleEyes called your comment "idiotic" but felt free to call another poster names. (I was going to say "respected poster" but that's going too far).

    I get you have been a member for a long time. You probably remember that game where Sandilands tore Geelong apart at home. The most dominant performance by a ruckman I've ever seen live.
    Here's the thing: no one can do that every week. It doesn't matter if he's the biggest footballer ever. If he managed that every week he would be better than both Abletts put together. But I reckon some football watchers expect that from him every week.

    You are right - Hit Outs aren't always a good predictor of centre clearances or winning games - look at Jacobs last week. The rest of the midfield is also important.
    Hit Outs to Advantage are a good predictor though, and I think Sandilands does well there statistically.

    Sandilands is such a dominant force that he almost always wins his position. Opposition teams spend a huge amount of time worrying about how to neutralise him - and quite often they manage it.
    But when he is not playing, and is replaced by a normal ruckman such as Griffin, we see how much value he provides.
     
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  18. blue shark

    blue shark Club Legend

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    Lets hope that Ross is speaking the truth, because the way we started the season is probably closer to the way he
    plays, holds his cards.
     
  19. Dump Truck

    Dump Truck All Australian

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    I don't think we'll play finals but we're definitely already exceeding expectations. I penciled us in for 5-8 wins this year and so far we've hit the 5 by round 8. We should get at least 8 or 9 wins comfortably which is a big win in my book. If you remove the first two games then our seasons stats actually look a whole lot more competitive. Realistically our 3 losses have come against top 4 sides. Our biggest challenges will be Adelaide in Adelaide, Saints at home, Sydney away, GWS away, Geelong away and the Derby. If we can win one or more of them that will show we can definitely make finals.

    Our best player this season was S.Hill before he got injured. We've since won 3(?) more games without him. Having him back in will be a huge positive. He's both inside and outside and his brother and him have that telekinesis thing going on.
    Walters has been brilliant in the midfield and with S.Hill coming back and B.Hill in career best form the outside tag will be tough. Add in Neale/Blakely/Fyfe and occasionally Mundy then it's looking good. The fact Mundy playing forward is working so well and Blakely seamlessly transitioned into A grade helps.
    The forwardline hasn't quite "gelled" yet. We still have a heap of room for improvement there. Can easily kick an extra 4/5 goals a game. The weekend it was our poor set shot kicking that kept the tiges in the game in the third. McCarthy is still learning, Tabs is starting to be the player we know he can be and Kersten is doing everything that's asked of him. Add in Grey and Croz who both can do better and it's a decent mix.
    Our biggest potential positive for the year however (and a potential finals boost) is Bennel. If he gets on the park for 6-7 games, we will win more then we will lose.


    Plus if you add in the bulk of younger players;
    The "potentials" (less than 10 games): Ryan, Nyhuis, Cox, Darcy (all 0), Grey (9), Balic, Logue (both 4) plus other rookies. For me Duman really excites me as the one who could be anything.
    And "Take the next step up" (10-50 games): Weller (33), Tucker (18), Langdon (23), Hughes (12), Blakely (24), McCarthy (29), Kersten (45), Tabs (47), Hamling (31), A.Pearce (inj 21), Apeness (inj 7), Collins (12)

    This year will be huge if we can turn most of those players into best 22 or pushing hard for best 22. Finals shouldn't be our priority this year. However this list has a lot more talent and nous then our previous bigger bodied, hard brigade of Mzungu, DeBoer, Suban, Barlow (love him), Mayne, Crowley, C.Pearce, Ibbo, Dawson, Griffin etc.

    As discussed our biggest challenge will be the replacement for Sandi while Darcy who I believe will come good takes his time. The biggest thing right now is winning all our close games. Our team has a belief which is huge going forward. Honourable losses can build a bit of team spirit but chalking up wins will really instill the belief we can match it with anyone.
     
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  20. samFFC

    samFFC Premiership Player

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    Keep playing the kids, keep playing good footy, who cares about the win total at the end of the season (not going to be 11+ anyway) :rainbow:
     
  21. tacopavlich

    tacopavlich Club Legend

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    Requires more than one player to perform to win clearances. Seems rather absurd tbh.
     
  22. Arcassius

    Arcassius Team Chaplain

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    It's ironic that you comment on selective use of stats - yet you narrow yours to specifically be games in which he has had 50 or more hitouts, and include differentials that aren't solely related to the performance of the ruckman as 'proof' of your argument. Your review of the Richmond game highlights that it's difficult to correlate clearances to ruck performance - which is the whole point I was making when i used that example.

    I'm not disputing that he's a dominant ruckman statistically - and he's been consistently good over his career. But stats aren't everything, and the hitouts stat you cherry picked to prove your argument isn't the only filter through which to view a ruck. Dominating the stats doesn't magically invalidate my view that tapping down to an opposition player, or spiking it straight to a sweeping defender is a wasted opportunity. That handballing to a player under pressure or not going for goal when it's his turn to go isn't ideal. So yeah, while he's a great of the club - I do feel he could be better. Both views can be correct at the same time ;)

    Incidentally - i'm guessing that this is one of the articles that you annoyed you -


    One club's ruck coach said it was difficult to assess the value of ruckmen because people tried to distil their game to statistics that were inadequate and misleading, because the intangibles of a good ruck were unquantifiable.

    "What value do you put on a big bloke having presence? What value do you put on a bloke who knocks midfielders over, blocks and puts the wind up them? None of those are stats.

    "The ruck stats are basically bulls--t anyway. Hitouts are the most useless statistic ever. You can only look at hitouts to advantage and even then you have to look at clearances and scores from stoppages. You can be putting it down your midfield's throat but if they fumble, get tackled or don't clear it then that is not your fault.

    "We never used hitout figures, they are a complete waste of time, they are nonsense. Hitting the ball first means nothing if your team doesn't clear it.

    "Hitout to advantage figures are what we look at. If the ruck can hit to your advantage it is then up to the midfielder to clear the ball. We review the games and rank the ruck hitouts for every game and I am sure all clubs do the same.

    "You have to look at every one and give it a grade and then you can get an idea of whether they were any good."
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2017
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  23. PurpleEyes

    PurpleEyes Team Captain

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    The conversation started with a poster stating how important Sandilands is to Freo's success.
    prpl_jss basically responded against that with "Dominates hit outs, loses clearances."

    The statistical data I have seen suggests that is definitely not the case.

    When Sandilands dominates (ie. 50+ hitouts), Freo generally speaking also dominate the midfield stats (ie. clearances, centre clearances and inside 50s).
    The statistics I showed have an extremely high correlation between Sandilands dominating hitouts and the midfield dominating and even if those statistics may not have a direct one for one perfect relationship, they are the best statistics I have available to do any analysis. If somebody can present some HitOuts to advantage, then I'm sure those stats will only further support a position of Sandilands positive impact on Freo's midfield stats.

    If you believe I am being selective, then please provide some statistics (with a decent sample data ... ie. not just one game) to show otherwise.
    Only on one occasion have I used the word "proof" and that was in the context of "proof beyond any doubt". I mostly say the correlation between Sandilands Hitouts and the midfield stats are high or even overwhelming which is a mathematical fact, not an opinion.

    So often I see people with an opinion not supported by statistics choose to simply dismiss the statistics.
    I am regularly changing my opinion based on the statistical research I do.
     
  24. SHill Shall

    SHill Shall All Australian

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    I think the issue for me is as simple as Sandi dominates both statistically and qualitatively as I watch him play. It ALWAYS feels better before clearances when he attends the stoppage. Yes he does the odd dumb thing, but he himself is a clearance machine and some of his relieving contested marks on the edge of D50 this year have been enormous (Melbourne in Q4 when under the pump comes to mind).
     
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  25. freoextra

    freoextra Premiership Player

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    Geez drop the stats and watch a game, no one would think Freo is a better team without Sandi. Simples!!!

    Sometimes we don't make the most out of his dominance but he is the oppositions biggest headache and even that last ruck contest in the last game he showed his value and experience with the shepherd for Neale.

    Greatest Ruckman Freo has seen by the length of the straight and never once considered moving.
     
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