I'm not saying he's going to be a bad player, he's still top 3 of this draft in my opinion.
I'll never profess to seeing a lot of him beyond highlights on the net. He really doesn't remind me at all of of Dustin Martin and even less Dangerfield. Yes I understand your point you're only comparing when those two play in the forward line but their main position is in the middle. Even excluding his endurance, from my limited experience watching him he's primarily using his bulk to get the footy rather than reading the play which is fine and we've seen a roughly similar manchilds in Dunstan and SPP come in comfortably in the AFL as well.
His best position is playing as a high half forward with scope to run through the middle occasionally. I think he has the potential to be be a gun but if we are trying to trade up to get pick 1/2/3 to get him, we might as well try and use pick 7 and 8 to get Petracca who I think is probably better in every way apart from evasiveness or even cheaper to try and Stringer who is probably even more explosive and we know can play at AFL even whilst being on gear etc..
I know you rate him ARR and I do as well to a degree but I think LDU is a
much better prospect whose skill will translate better to AFL and is probably what we'd need more, a better kick, gets more contested ball and is just as fast getting out of stoppages.
Also for the late reply but I had to watch more of the campaigner just so I can be confident in what I say
Fair enough, I guess we may need to agree to disagree to an extent.
Not sure if you were around then, but in case you weren't, I was just as big a wrap for Petracca as I am for Rayner and argued long and hard for us to pick him over Paddy, so it's not like you're talking here to someone who's not extraordinarily aware of what Petracca brings to the table, but I see no reason whatsoever why Rayner is any less than Petracca, from a footy talent POV at least.
Fitness wise, sure, he has a bigger ? there, and that very well could make the ultimate difference, but other than that I see them on the same sort of level for football ability.
I also very much disagree re Petracca being a better kick. Given that we had pick 1 that year we of course followed CP's progress extremely closely on here and the biggest knock on him comfortably was on his kicking. We're not hearing anything of the sort really re Rayner, who has a thumping kick, on both sides.
CP went at less than 50% KE I believe that year and then he tested TERRIBLY for both kicking and goalkicking at the combine (bottom 15% for both). Then last year at AFL level he went at 50% KE for the year, which is deplorable for anyone not playing ruck.
Yes he is capable of some amazing 50m bullett passes, but for every one of them there's probably one or two butchered kicks, as those efficiency stats would suggest.
As for Rayner's midfield ability, his numbers don't lie. You don't have regular 14 or 15 contested possession games by accident. Especially if you're only getting about 23/24 disposals all up. It also needs to be remembered that highlights packages are just that, packages of what whoever is putting them together thinks will look best, so you're not necessarily going to see the less flashy grunt type work he does.
As for CP v Rayner, something that I believe also needs to be taken into account is that being born in early Jan, if CP had been born just a week or two earlier, he would have been taken on the 2013 draft, with Billings, Bont and co.(he's less than 2 months younger than Bont) and he was finished with his schooling and at uni in his draft year, and didn't play any TAC Cup footy in year 11 that I'm aware of.
Rayner on the other hand was born latish October and is presumably still in year 12, so he is effectively a "year younger", and also a year behind where CP was at school at the same stage.
Unlike CP, Rayner did play TAC Cup footy in year 11 (last year) and he went so well that in one game he kicked 7 goals and in another he Kicked 6, etc.
When CP was in yr 12 and 17yo like Rayner is now (2013) there were likewise big questionmarks on his tank and in particular his ability to play midfield, but in that upcoming offseason, he got someone to train him from memory and got much fitter and leaner, and that allowed him to play much more midfield the following year and dominate.
If Rayner got to go around again at 18yo and with his schooling finished next year like CP did in 2014 just imagine how much he would dominate, especially if he was able to get fitter in the meantime!
It's obviously hard to say how much if any difference that makes, but it's hard to imagine it doesn't make some (even if it's just from a maturity POV) and this is part of the reason that as much as I did and do rate CP, I don't see him being a level of talent above Rayner at all. Just fitness and maybe a slight touch of pace, but with worse kicking.