Opinion 2017 Draft Discussion - Pick 3 - Poll added

Discussion in 'Carlton' started by HARKER, May 22, 2017.

Put it out there
?

Who we are likely to take at Pick 3 .......

  1. Luke Davies-Uniacke

    16.9%
  2. Cameron Rayner

    37.8%
  3. Adam Cerra

    8.6%
  4. Paddy Dow

    23.8%
  5. Charlie Constable

    1.5%
  6. Darcy Fogarty

    4.3%
  7. Andrew Brayshaw

    2.6%
  8. Jaidyn Stephenson

    2.1%
  9. Jack Higgins

    0.6%
  10. Nicholas Coffield

    1.1%
  11. Other

    0.7%
  1. ItsAllAboutMe

    ItsAllAboutMe Premiership Player

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    Lobbe would be on close to $900k, if they dont have that any more then it is easy. Brisbane would not be close to paying the salary cap max so will happily take on a dud contract to get pick 2... If it was us in that situation, i would hope we would do it as well but unlike Brisbane the AFL wouldnt allow us to play the system like that.
     

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  2. RiteBak@Ya

    RiteBak@Ya All Australian

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    Honestly your source is Brisbane board of big footy. Its much like when we have people on this board coming up with ridiculous trade suggestions... like Pick 3 for Saints Pick 7 and 8
     
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  3. SHOWEY

    SHOWEY Senior List

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    Hey hey now
    I suggested 3 for 7+8 too
    ;)
     
  4. Jeremias

    Jeremias Daddy Pow

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    Pretty comfortably I would have thought.

    Trengove + Lobbe out the door = a hell of a lot of salary relief.

    Not to mention the cap just went up considerably.
     
  5. CJMB

    CJMB Senior List

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    Port has got to be an interesting situation with their spending.
    Lobbe on big coin out. Trengrove was reported on $700k or more. Impey, Young and Ah Chee also possibly on the way out. So that frees up a bit. Not sure what the go is with the player contracts and the 20% increase but they'll need to have a fair bit free considering their possible trade actions with Rockliff nominating them as well as links to Motlop and Watts. Probably helps our cause if they go for all three which reduces the chances of them offering a super-deal/overs for Rockliff and push Brisbane towards band 1 compensation.
     
  6. RiteBak@Ya

    RiteBak@Ya All Australian

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    Yes well if SOS is really smart and St Kilda really dumb.. we could trade 3 for 7&8 , and then trade 7&8 to Brisbane for 1&18... nah not going to happen lol
     
  7. CJMB

    CJMB Senior List

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    Itsallaboutme is saying that would be Port's justification for offering Rocky a crazy high salary to get Brissy the pick. Not saying he's actually worth $900k+ but that they could use those reasons to argue it.
     
  8. The Smoking Gun

    The Smoking Gun All Australian

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    Meh, I think you're stressing too much. Any of LDU, Dow or Cerra will make an excellent addition to our midfield. I like all of them for various reasons.

    Rankine, Hill, Walsh, Rozee & Bytel will split them up a bit and be Top 10 contenders. Need to be realistic Jimmae. I reckon come the second half of next season is where we'll really start to see Curnow, Weitering, SOSOS & Cuningham display the tools on a regular basis that caught SOS' eye. They'll be getting into that 25-50 game zone where they start to believe they belong, can compete and have their opponent's measure. That's not to say that some inconsistency as they continue to build won't drive us nuts at times.

    This is where it gets hard, because we tend to rate the kids based on what may best suit our list. Who knows who Norf will take. Fogarty & Brander could have huge appeal to them and provide another way to goal other than Brown. Alternatively they might like Higgins who could potentially provide something similar to what Harvey used to. The Pies & Dockers probably need KPPs more than mids so Brander or Naughton might be a higher priority.

    Any of Dow, LDU or Cerra will serve us well TW. ;)
     
  9. Aphrodite

    Aphrodite Moderator

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  10. The Smoking Gun

    The Smoking Gun All Australian

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    That theory is only valid if you base it on a points value. The problem is points don't play games people do. Rayner, Dow, LDU, Cerra & Constable have been clear standouts above the rest all year. Do you go with the elite Dangerfield at 3 or do you go with good Duncan & Cockatoo with 7 & 8 because you get 2 for 1??? Just something to keep in mind.
     
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  11. ItsAllAboutMe

    ItsAllAboutMe Premiership Player

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  12. TerryWallet

    TerryWallet Norm Smith Medallist

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    Now that we missed on Rocky(and Smith meh) and i still anticipate Gibbs going, i agree it will def be a core mid.

    I'm still not sold on Cerra being a certain Top 5 pick personally, but wouldn't surprise or displease me in the least if he came to us if LDU is gone and maybe Dow.

    My personal Top 4 is still what it was a month ago. Not specifically for Carlton but just overall:

    Rayner and LDU at 1 and 2
    Dow and Stephenson at 3 and 4.
    Cerra at 6 or 7.

    Constable will be the interesting one for me on draft night. I have him at 5 on my last list from a month ago and i still like him, as i know you do(?). But it wouldn't surprise if he doesn't go in the first dozen. Has a wide range it seems.
     
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  13. RiteBak@Ya

    RiteBak@Ya All Australian

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    Yes I have considered that and we saw what GWS did last year trying to up the draft order to get McGrath. GWS are unique with the amount of picks and high end talent they can afford to do that.

    Saints and Pick 7&8 for 3 is a much different conversation. Firstly from a points perspective they'd be giving up 1000 points. From a player perspective there is not much difference between the top 10 really, its all speculative to some degree. Why would they give up 2 chances with 7&8 for 1 chance at 3.

    So either way points value of player potential it's really a conversation people keep having that isn't close to reality
     
  14. Arr0w

    Arr0w Premiership Player

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    http://www.wafl.com.au/players/view/6507 - Stats from this season.

    What impresses me about Miller is his thirst for a contest. Is extremely agile and has a massive leap. Given his DOB, many of these taller kids have a propensity to continue growing until they are 22. If they change the centre bounce rule, to a throw up, I think it would suit Miller. He is has enough aggression to also compete well around the ground. I believe he could turn out similar to a Jenkins, would be a great pick up late in the draft
     
  15. The Smoking Gun

    The Smoking Gun All Australian

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    What I love about both Cerra & Constable is the quality of their disposal. Lets face it, the quality of our disposal through the middle of the ground is shithouse. Our delivery of the ball into the F50 is shithouse. The amount of times we turn the ball over during transition without pressure is shithouse. Apart from Cripps, our ability to effectively extract the ball with purpose from stoppage and clearance situations is shithouse. The addition of Cerra or Constable will assist to address this.

    The only hesitation I have adding Constable to Cripps and Kennedy is that I think it starts to look a little one-paced. Cerra's top speed is fine, but his rate of acceleration will need to be addressed. I'd send him off to the same running coach that assisted Cripps. When you have similarly rated players, I'll always defer to the one with the best disposal. That's why I've been big on Cerra & Brayshaw from day dot.
     
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  16. Arr0w

    Arr0w Premiership Player

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    Brayshaw continues to test well

    LOB showing his athletics background, broke the state schools record for 400 metres IIRC
     
  17. Aphrodite

    Aphrodite Moderator

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  18. Aphrodite

    Aphrodite Moderator

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  19. Garth Vader

    Garth Vader Club Legend

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    I've changed my vote to Dow. Like the fact that he appears to have very good break-away speed, amongst other things.

    Maybe Cerra is too similar to an SPS in playing style? ....not that you should necessarily restrict yourself to one SPS.

    I guess I'm very mindful of how speed has been a big factor for the successful sides, over ther last few seasons.
     
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  20. La Dispute

    La Dispute La Dispute

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    Would still rather Brayshaw and Coffield than just Dow/LDU, but I doubt the trade would happen.

    There's a minor drop-off after the first few, but it's marginal.

    I think we'll end up with Cerra or Dow, after Rayner and LDU are taken.
     
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  21. RiteBak@Ya

    RiteBak@Ya All Australian

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    that's fine, you will probably changed it again prior to the draft.
     
  22. ray8182

    ray8182 Team Captain

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    You raise some interesting points.

    The first is how LDU, Rayner, Dow and Cerra seem to have separated themselves from the rest. That is the feeling, that they are the most proven midfielders. Trading outside the top 4 is interesting and would indicate the club does not think this is the case.

    I disagree about Fogarty having done nothing. He’s been injured and played injured in his final year and as a result we don’t have as much information about him relative to other players. Clubs have been following players for a number of years and have a much broader understanding of each player over multiple years than we do when looking at final year. Clubs are also well aware of top juniors getting injured in final year and sliding in the draft. The most well known would be Selwood.

    Fogarty looks like one of the real impact players in the draft who can not only win the ball in the air and on the ground but has quality disposal. The hardest thing for me is knowing what position he will end up in. I agree we have plenty 3rd tall type players and we are desperate for midfielders. Plowman and Marchbank can play intercepting defender role. Silvagni can play third tall up forward. Maybe Fogarty will be more than just a marking 3rd tall. Maybe he ends up being hybrid forward/midfielder.

    In the era of the hybrid forward maybe curnow and Fogarty would be main forward targets. Maybe they would alternate between forward and midfield. I’m not keen on having 2 big key forwards these days, instead preferring 1 with a more mobile forward line.

    A comparative player from recent draft is Essendons Francis. Quality 3rd tall marking player in draft year. The difference between Francis and Fogarty for me is Fogartys work in the contest. Better contested player.

    Does Fogarty become a match winner up forward and in the midfield or does he become a run of the mill 3rd tall? Would need to know his game really well to make this call.


    On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app
     
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  23. HARKER

    HARKER Hall of Famer

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    Interesting also in that 3 of those 4 guys are effectively bottom-agers, all with October birthdays.
     
  24. dangerousdane

    dangerousdane Club Legend

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    Just stumbled upon a BF thread “40 prospects to watch for 2017” there were some good bios there and guess what else, all the talk of it being a super draft just like 2018 is now.

    Does anyone know how Jordan Houlahan went this year? His write up in the above thread was good and he was top 2 in both kicking tests at this years combine.
     
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  25. BringBackSOS

    BringBackSOS Premiership Player

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    Went rather well in both vertical jumps too also.