List Mgmt. 2017 Draft Needs...

[Squiba]

Even if we rate Lukosious a better player and have every intention of going hard for him next year? The way I hear it we absolutely love Lukosious.
Could we find spots for both? Would it be a waste?

I can almost garunteee as a fwd we would rate Lukosius over Fogarty. But different drafts, different picks, different players. If we can get Fogarty at our pick and are as happy if happier with him than the other options, we would still pick him imo

 

[Brentmeister]

Tank??

That was also the plan with Jake Stringer and Aaron Francis, neither have been able to build their tank sufficiently to play midfield...

Think Stringer and Francis are limited by their application.

 

[mattymac]

For those interested in what the YOYO test actually involves
...

I now know I'm not interested in the yoyo test.

Most boring vid I've seen in my life

 

[TexForPM]

Rankine looks better. He's quick and evasive. Could play next year.

 

[ad victoriam]

Then you have the risk of missing out

We have no chance of getting a top 5 pick unless sloane leaves or ourselves or Melbourne fail this year

If and it is a big IF Sloane leaves all we get is an end of first round pick if we finish top that pick19. He is a Free agent, not a restricted free agent.

 

[GrommoT]

... In 2018 then, I think we will look to package up our first round picks, possibly with a 2019 pick or even someone like JJ to get in a position to draft Lukosious. That way we have bulked up the midfield and set the forward line for the future. Could be a smart strategy. As good as Rankine is, I don't think he is the type of player we would go for at the pointy end of the draft.
...

The only way to be sure of getting Luko would be to trade for pick 1 - wonder if we will do it.

Spoiler

 

[ams4crows]

The only way to be sure of getting Luko would be to trade for pick 1 - wonder if we will do it.

We don't know what he'll do next year yet, he could get injured or not continue to develop he may end up around the 5-8 Mark which we could easily upgrade to.

What if we trade up to pick 1 and he turns out to be a dud?

 

[GROTTO]

We don't know what he'll do next year yet, he could get injured or not continue to develop he may end up around the 5-8 Mark which we could easily upgrade to.

What if we trade up to pick 1 and he turns out to be a dud?

This is whats so scary about the draft. It would be interesting to look at all the number 1 picks in the last 5-10 years.

What would they be worth on the open market today?

 

[GrommoT]

We don't know what he'll do next year yet, he could get injured or not continue to develop he may end up around the 5-8 Mark which we could easily upgrade to.

What if we trade up to pick 1 and he turns out to be a dud?

True - all I'm saying is, if Crows want to target Lukos, the only way is to trade for pick 1. If we traded up to pick 3 hoping to land either him or Rankine, with our luck, they might go 1 and 2, and we miss.

I think it will be interesting this coming draft that if we get a chance at Foggy at pick 12 and whether Crows take him or not. If not, that would show that Crows don't really care about the SA bred factor, in which case the might go into 2018 with the picks we have (maybe some minor upgrading) and draft several players best available at those picks.

Spoiler

 

[marty36]

True - all I'm saying is, if Crows want to target Lukos, the only way is to trade for pick 1. If we traded up to pick 3 hoping to land either him or Rankine, with our luck, they might go 1 and 2, and we miss.

I think it will be interesting this coming draft that if we get a chance at Foggy at pick 12 and whether Crows take him or not. If not, that would show that Crows don't really care about the SA bred factor, in which case the might go into 2018 with the picks we have (maybe some minor upgrading) and draft several players best available at those picks.

CC, Lever,DangerGunston all say we do care about the go home factor

But then again fogarty will slip for the same reason

 

[GROTTO]

If the AFL draft next year is so good, wouldnt every time be trying to do their best to land a top 5 pick?

It would be almost foolish to give up any of these picks if any of these top 5 players in the draft are as good as what they are made out to be.

 

[GrommoT]

If the AFL draft next year is so good, wouldnt every time be trying to do their best to land a top 5 pick?

It would be almost foolish to give up any of these picks if any of these top 5 players in the draft are as good as what they are made out to be.

Some may be ... but the draft is meant to be very deep as well so if you didn't care about the SA factor, any first rounds are potentially very good.

Then you have teams like North who look like rebuilding so could well be interested in quantity of picks to get in as many talent as possible so if they had pick 1, would think they would be willing to trade 1 for 2 (or more?).

Spoiler

 

[GROTTO]

Some may be ... but the draft is meant to be very deep as well so if you didn't care about the SA factor, any first rounds are potentially very good.

Then you have teams like North who look like rebuilding so could well be interested in quantity of picks to get in as many talent as possible so if they had pick 1, would think they would be willing to trade 1 for 2 (or more?).

If they had pick 1, I can guarantee you we wont have the currency to trade for that.

Hypothetically if we have Demons pick ~10 and ours say ~ 16, I dont think they would trade that for pick 1. Not to mention if we had to bundle that with a player, is two of our 1sts plus a player worth their pick 1?

 

[Bearded Clam]

Yo

This is whats so scary about the draft. It would be interesting to look at all the number 1 picks in the last 5-10 years.

What would they be worth on the open market today?

u can google it pretty easily... and it’s not exactly an awe inspiring list.. Whitfield, Patton, David Swallow, Tom Boyd, Scully, Watts, Kruezer, McGrath, weitering, McCartin... not in that order obviously..

But not exactly Brownlow favourites or blokes you fear when they come up against your team.. McGrath is definitely gonna be a player though..

 

[Squiba]

Yo

u can google it pretty easily... and it’s not exactly an awe inspiring list.. Whitfield, Patton, David Swallow, Tom Boyd, Scully, Watts, Kruezer, McGrath, weitering, McCartin... not in that order obviously..

But not exactly Brownlow favourites or blokes you fear when they come up against your team.. McGrath is definitely gonna be a player though..

The number 1 pick is vastly overated. That's a large part of why I like Haggis as a recruiter. He picks for upside first, and most of the time players develop far differently in the big league compared to throughout Juniors.

 

[Mismatched]

Tank??

That was also the plan with Jake Stringer and Aaron Francis, neither have been able to build their tank sufficiently to play midfield...

The tanks of Dangerfield and GAJ were also significantly questioned early in their careers. Turned into decent midfielders.

Tank is one of the easiest physical aspect to improve if a player sets their mind to it.

Dangerfield was drafted in 2007, it wasn't until 2012 that he genuinely developed a midfielders tank and his performances showed it.

 

[Banshee23]

AFL Draft Central's Matt Balmer/Bishop gut feel where players will fall in the 1st Round at this time...

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bishops-2017-draft-thread.1162459/page-57

This is based off gut feel/inside info/guess work -- it's not an exact science. Happy to justify selection etc.

Have wipped up 'Others" in about 5 minutes due to work commitments. If there's a spelling/grammar error, apologies!

Pick 1: Brisbane Lions: Luke Davies-Uniacke
Others: Paddy Dow seems like the only other contender for the No.1 pick, with everything I hear suggesting Rayner isn't the Lions no.1 (he isn't the consensus No.1 around the place either)

Pick 2: Fremantle: Adam Cerra
Others: Freo have liked Cerra for a long time and I thought Pick 5 they'd consider him, but now may grab him at 2. Andrew Brayshaw another they've watched and liked throughout the year. Too early to consider Brander/Naughton. Already have a lot of Rayner 'types' - Dow could be considered too.

Pick 3: Carlton: Paddy Dow
Others: Picking a 'full-time' midfielder might see them grab Dow or LDU/Cerra if available. Darcy Fogarty another name that doesn't go away - but they might hope that he gets past North at 4 & to their next Pick at 10. Andrew Brayshaw would also be a candidate.

Pick 4: North Melbourne: Cam Rayner
Others: Have had multiple people mention to me over the last 96 hours that North are fans of Fogarty - but he's not someone I'd take this early. X-Factor Rayner should appeal to build their future around, Stephenson's strong 2nd 1/2 to the year might see him considered too.

Pick 5: Fremantle: Andrew Brayshaw
Others: Some people close to Brander continue to suggest that Freo have been right into them - some in the know say Naughton is another they might take, others say he isn't going to be considered. Brayshaw seems the best fit here.

Pick 6: Collingwood: Nicholas Coffield
Others: They might consider Naughton as a tall defender - but Coffield makes sense here as the best available. Aiden Bonar's strong 2nd half to the year will make him appeal heavily. They were the first club to speak to Nathan Murphy earlier in the year, but it's too early for him.

Pick 7: St Kilda: Jaidyn Stephenson
Others: Best available here - Saints will grab a slider if a tall goes above them.

Pick 8: St Kilda: Aiden Bonar
Others: Best available here - Saints will grab a slider if a tall goes above them but couldn't see Bonar being overlooked. Might look at Dandenong Stingrays teammate Hunter Clark. Saints were keen to add another KPD - but they may wait til next year after grabbing Logan Austin in trade week.

Pick 9: Western Bulldogs: Aaron Naughton
Others: Hands down the hardest pick inside the top 10 - who do they take? They've liked Nathan Murphy, but could hope he gets later. Fogarty would have to be a chance too. Small forward like Jack Higgins another.

Pick 10: Carlton: Darcy Fogarty
Others: Charlie Constable is one that SOS would take, while some sources say this is the furthest Bonar will get with the Blues unlikely to let him get past.

Pick 11: GWS: Jack Higgins
Others: Everyone linking them with Higgins makes me worried that this pick might not be as easy as it seems, especially when they could've grabbed Ainsworth last year and took Taranto. Watch this space with GWS.

Pick 12: Adelaide: Hunter Clark
Others: Best available, would grab D.Fogarty surely if he gets through.

Pick 13: WCE: Oscar Allen
Others: They need mids - but there isn't a suitable option here. Allen next best player on the board and a WA prospect. Clark would fit the bill if he slides. Constable's running in WA might be an issue - but he could be a project midfielder if they can get him up to speed.

Pick 14: Sydney: Nathan Murphy
Others: Seems the best fit here for the Swans - can play at either end. Constable another candidate.

Pick 15: Brisbane: Charlie Constable
Others: Best available here - but the fear could be that he is gone before this pick & it'd be very hard to see who the Lions grab at Pick 15. They also have Pick 18 - might look to take an outside mid or add some speed such as Petruccelle or Lochie O'Brien. Unlikely to take a tall with Ballenden's bid coming in the 20s.

Pick 16: Western Bulldogs: Ed Richards
Others: Murphy will be there man if the Swans don't take him. Could they take Gryan Miers this early? Richards' speed will appeal, as could Jack Petruccelle. Good chance to bid on Naish.

Pick 17: Richmond: Jarrod Brander
Others: Best fit to grab a tall. If Oscar Allen gets here that'd make sense - think Sam Hayes will be grabbed at their next pick, but he has a lot of work to be done on his running. Naish bid could come at Pick 16 - otherwise they'll be able to use Pick 20 as well. Lot of talk Richmond like Noah Balta too.

Hunter Clark sounds like he goes alright ... can't go wrong with a dual-sided mid

 

[Bayno82]

This whole Fogarty thing with expecting him to fall is like Francis a couple of years ago. Im expecting not to get him but would be pleasantly surprised if we did

 

[Brentmeister]

This whole Fogarty thing with expecting him to fall is like Francis a couple of years ago. Im expecting not to get him but would be pleasantly surprised if we did

Francis had a much stronger draft year though, and showed some really good signs for West Adelaide's senior side.

 

[GROTTO]

Of course Fogarty will go to Carlton. This is the sequel to the Gibbs saga. Watch the lols, in a year or two from now if he wants to go home.

 

[Danger in Texas]

The tanks of Dangerfield and GAJ were also significantly questioned early in their careers. Turned into decent midfielders.

Tank is one of the easiest physical aspect to improve if a player sets their mind to it.

Dangerfield was drafted in 2007, it wasn't until 2012 that he genuinely developed a midfielders tank and his performances showed it.

Danger took four years to develop his tank (I'd say five, but he spent his first year on the list back in Vic). Gaz took six.

It takes a while for some players to develop their tank so they can become fine midfielders, but when they do, they go BANG. Fogarty could be one of those, but it's a very risky chance to take. Can we afford to take that chance? Possibly.

 

[Shaz2012]

Will be a pretty interesting draft for us this year waiting to see if DF goes before our pick - and then to see if we actually pick him.

As for 2018, I expect us to try to trade our way up to get Rankine or Lukosius. Its a deep draft so our picks will all be valuable, so clubs might be more than willing to trade (say) picks 13 (melb), 15 (ours) and 19 (carl) for a high enough pick to get one of them. We could also throw in our 2019 first.

But if the 2018 draft is that strong, why wouldn't we take these picks to the draft?

 

[Squiba]

AFL Draft Central's Matt Balmer/Bishop gut feel where players will fall in the 1st Round at this time...

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/bishops-2017-draft-thread.1162459/page-57

This is based off gut feel/inside info/guess work -- it's not an exact science. Happy to justify selection etc.

Have wipped up 'Others" in about 5 minutes due to work commitments. If there's a spelling/grammar error, apologies!

Pick 1: Brisbane Lions: Luke Davies-Uniacke
Others: Paddy Dow seems like the only other contender for the No.1 pick, with everything I hear suggesting Rayner isn't the Lions no.1 (he isn't the consensus No.1 around the place either)

Pick 2: Fremantle: Adam Cerra
Others: Freo have liked Cerra for a long time and I thought Pick 5 they'd consider him, but now may grab him at 2. Andrew Brayshaw another they've watched and liked throughout the year. Too early to consider Brander/Naughton. Already have a lot of Rayner 'types' - Dow could be considered too.

Pick 3: Carlton: Paddy Dow
Others: Picking a 'full-time' midfielder might see them grab Dow or LDU/Cerra if available. Darcy Fogarty another name that doesn't go away - but they might hope that he gets past North at 4 & to their next Pick at 10. Andrew Brayshaw would also be a candidate.

Pick 4: North Melbourne: Cam Rayner
Others: Have had multiple people mention to me over the last 96 hours that North are fans of Fogarty - but he's not someone I'd take this early. X-Factor Rayner should appeal to build their future around, Stephenson's strong 2nd 1/2 to the year might see him considered too.

Pick 5: Fremantle: Andrew Brayshaw
Others: Some people close to Brander continue to suggest that Freo have been right into them - some in the know say Naughton is another they might take, others say he isn't going to be considered. Brayshaw seems the best fit here.

Pick 6: Collingwood: Nicholas Coffield
Others: They might consider Naughton as a tall defender - but Coffield makes sense here as the best available. Aiden Bonar's strong 2nd half to the year will make him appeal heavily. They were the first club to speak to Nathan Murphy earlier in the year, but it's too early for him.

Pick 7: St Kilda: Jaidyn Stephenson
Others: Best available here - Saints will grab a slider if a tall goes above them.

Pick 8: St Kilda: Aiden Bonar
Others: Best available here - Saints will grab a slider if a tall goes above them but couldn't see Bonar being overlooked. Might look at Dandenong Stingrays teammate Hunter Clark. Saints were keen to add another KPD - but they may wait til next year after grabbing Logan Austin in trade week.

Pick 9: Western Bulldogs: Aaron Naughton
Others: Hands down the hardest pick inside the top 10 - who do they take? They've liked Nathan Murphy, but could hope he gets later. Fogarty would have to be a chance too. Small forward like Jack Higgins another.

Pick 10: Carlton: Darcy Fogarty
Others: Charlie Constable is one that SOS would take, while some sources say this is the furthest Bonar will get with the Blues unlikely to let him get past.

Pick 11: GWS: Jack Higgins
Others: Everyone linking them with Higgins makes me worried that this pick might not be as easy as it seems, especially when they could've grabbed Ainsworth last year and took Taranto. Watch this space with GWS.

Pick 12: Adelaide: Hunter Clark
Others: Best available, would grab D.Fogarty surely if he gets through.

Pick 13: WCE: Oscar Allen
Others: They need mids - but there isn't a suitable option here. Allen next best player on the board and a WA prospect. Clark would fit the bill if he slides. Constable's running in WA might be an issue - but he could be a project midfielder if they can get him up to speed.

Pick 14: Sydney: Nathan Murphy
Others: Seems the best fit here for the Swans - can play at either end. Constable another candidate.

Pick 15: Brisbane: Charlie Constable
Others: Best available here - but the fear could be that he is gone before this pick & it'd be very hard to see who the Lions grab at Pick 15. They also have Pick 18 - might look to take an outside mid or add some speed such as Petruccelle or Lochie O'Brien. Unlikely to take a tall with Ballenden's bid coming in the 20s.

Pick 16: Western Bulldogs: Ed Richards
Others: Murphy will be there man if the Swans don't take him. Could they take Gryan Miers this early? Richards' speed will appeal, as could Jack Petruccelle. Good chance to bid on Naish.

Pick 17: Richmond: Jarrod Brander
Others: Best fit to grab a tall. If Oscar Allen gets here that'd make sense - think Sam Hayes will be grabbed at their next pick, but he has a lot of work to be done on his running. Naish bid could come at Pick 16 - otherwise they'll be able to use Pick 20 as well. Lot of talk Richmond like Noah Balta too.

Greene and Higgins with Taranto rotating through the Fwd 50 will be exceptional in future years. I feel GWS may look to correct their balance.

 

[Squiba]

Will be a pretty interesting draft for us this year waiting to see if DF goes before our pick - and then to see if we actually pick him.

As for 2018, I expect us to try to trade our way up to get Rankine or Lukosius. Its a deep draft so our picks will all be valuable, so clubs might be more than willing to trade (say) picks 13 (melb), 15 (ours) and 19 (carl) for a high enough pick to get one of them. We could also throw in our 2019 first.

But if the 2018 draft is that strong, why wouldn't we take these picks to the draft?

Assuming we have 10,17, 22, if any combination of Rozee, Hately and another good Vic country or similar prospect are best available at our projected picks, I would personally prefer the 3 good prospects rather than 1 brilliant one.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Patton, Boyd, McGrath and Weitering would all still command High end or even multiple 1st round picks to obtain, Whitfield, Scully and Swallow at least late 1st Round picks IMO. Injuries and multiple concussions haven't been kind to Kreuzer and McCartin or Swallow for that matter. The only one I'd consider a bust is Watts and he was probably weighted down with expectation being drafted to a cot case team at the time.

Agree.. although I was talking more along the lines of a no.1 draft pick doesn’t instantly mean the player is gonna be a superstar who year in year out gets the most votes in the Brownlow for their club and someone who tears teams apart... even the no.1 pick is a gamble.

And then on the flip side you look at the picks guys like Sloane and McGovern are drafted!..