List Mgmt. 2017 Draft Needs...

[marty36]

I understand what you're saying Bicks, but I'm not sure you get what we're asking.

For example, CCJ has fallen down draft orders due to questionable kicking, uncertainty about ruck work at the next level etc etc. Yet I would still be happy to nab him at 39.

In Fogarty's case, there are question marks over his best position and endurance, yet he is till very likely a first round prospect.

What is it that has JJ potentially available at 39? Questionable transition to AFL? Endurance? Skills? Size? Potential devlopment? There has to be SOMETHING, otherwise he would be pick 1.

People aren't knocking the player or your judgement, merely asking what it is that sees him well outside of top ten calculations.

*OK I see the edit has him around 30.

That's interesting and from what you've said about him I can see why he is that high.

Maybe it is just me, but sometimes i see people get their favourites and refuse to look at the question marks surrounding them. They can still be a favourite, but it doesn't hurt to view them objectively.

Any draftee outside the top 20 has a greater than 50% chance of failure so to say there aren't any flaws is ridiculous

Odds aren't good


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[BRL121]

Is Jordan’s brother Seymour still playing?
He would have to be the commentary favourite.

Shameful, Misty! You have used Dogs105's joke as your own, with no attribution. (See post 2573)

 

[Redleg Crow]

Yes there can be good 3rd round draft picks (hello Corey Enright!), but the reality is you have a much better chance of picking a winner in the first round.

Looking at the 15 years from 1998-2012 the median games played (excluding players drafted under the old father-son rule eg Ablett):
Round 1 - 106 games
Round 2 - 51 games
Round 3 - 34 games

52% of players drafted in the 1st round play 100+ games compared to 29% of the 2nd round picks and 28% of the third round

27% of 1st round picks play fewer than 50 games compared to 49% of 2nd round picks and 57% of 3rd round.




Another way to put it more than half of the players drafted from 1998-2012 who played over 100 games were drafted in the first round, and 45% of those who played fewer than 10 games were drafted in the 3rd round.

So let's say out of this year's draft 10 players drafted in the first 3 rounds end up playing over 200 games (which is about right - only about 12% of all players get to that many games). Most likely 6 of them will come from the 1st round, 3 from the 2nd and 1 from the 3rd

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Any draftee outside the top 20 has a greater than 50% chance of failure so to say there aren't any flaws is ridiculous

Odds aren't good


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Maybe we should 'pass' on all our picks Marty

 

[mistylake]

Shameful, Misty! You have used Dogs105's joke as your own, with no attribution. (See post 2573)

Moe from Moe’s Tavern I was quoting. We’re all plagiarising.
Is it plagiarising if it’s so well known?

 

[Bearded Clam]

I've seen plenty of him over the last 2 years and to my eye he doesn't have any flaws that stick out to me, he's like most small/medium forwards when playing in an ordinary team which the GWV Rebels were this year....lack of decent supply , makes it harder to stand out from the crowd. Anyhow I don't give a continental what others think, I'll back my judgement based on what I've seen up close and live not off what the media draft guys say...

Go to the Draft machine and have a look for yourself and point out the flaws I'm supposed to be missing? It's about the only decent footage available because he's not one of the Media guys group think players.

http://www.afl.com.au/draft/draft-machine

Beautiful kicking technique. Just looks very smooth and measured. Good overhead for his size and looks clean picking it up when it’s on the ground..

Only thing the footage doesn’t really show, or it’s hard to tell from it, is if he has a good turn of speed.. is he fast bicks?..

 

[1990crow]

Kids I like with late-rookie picks other than SA lads Mitch Crowden and Stefan Giro.....Penrith & Johnston I'm very, very keen on.


Late ND - Ethan Penrith 180cm 78kg - HBF/Wing/HFF, A real favourite of mine, elites speed, great defensive pressure, tackling machine, think Charlie Cameron!!! One player I'd be ecstatic about if he landed at the Crows. Edit : And better foot skills.

Late ND - Jordan Johnston 185cm 78kg - Medium Forward/Midfielder, X Factor Forward, Outstanding Aerialist with sticky hands, innate goal sense, long penetrating kick, played some midfield late in the season and did well in there as well. Personally I'd have no qualms taking him at pick 39 as I've seen up close what he's capable of.

Late ND - Trent Mynott 185cm - 75kg - Balanced mid, loves the hard stuff, good decision maker, good kick, could even go as high as the 3rd round, underrated IMO.

Late ND - Tom North 184cm 85kg - Late ND - Balanced midfielder, good overhead, long left foot, elite endurance, another that's a bit underrated IMO.

Late ND - Noah Answerth 184cm 79kg - mid/defender, injured his back earlier this year otherwise would have been in 2nd round contention going on 2016 form.


Rookie - Flynn Appleby 186cm 81kg - Lock down medium defender, can play on smalls or talls.

Rookie - LLoyd Meek 202cm 106kg - Ruckman, big strong lad, very good skill set for a big fella and covers the ground well, good contested mark, taps to advantage, 2nd best Ruck in the TAC behind Sam Hayes, played 3VFL games against AFL listed Ruckmen and made the bests in two of those games.

Rookie - Jordan Butts 196cm 81kg- KPD/KPF, youngest player in this draft, will need time and development but has all the tools, good overhead, very athletic, elite endurance, just needs to put on some beef, heaps and heaps of upside given his age and light build.

Like the sound of Lloyd Meek as a rookie.

 

[craig crowing]

Hey guys is there any chance Naughton get to us at 12 and if he did would we give up a Clark or a Bodar to take .
My thoughts were if got a quality tall at 12 then lots of options to cover our mids from say Worpel at 39 down.
Remembering we have 3 top picks from last year all mids.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Hey guys is there any chance Naughton get to us at 12 and if he did would we give up a Clark or a Bodar to take .
My thoughts were if got a quality tall at 12 then lots of options to cover our mids from say Worpel at 39 down.
Remembering we have 3 top picks from last year all mids.

If Worpel is still there at 39 surely we would be mad not to grab him... and a few in the media have him still being there in the early 40’s... all the footage I’ve seen of him is very impressive IMO he’s got a bit of Dustin Martin with his cheeky fend offs and strength mixed with a bit of Daniel Rich from the lions..

Bicks informed me a few weeks ago that Worpel would be one of those players that is physically ready to play in round one next year which would be a bonus.
I reacon if we could snag a player like Bolta at 12 who can play as a KPD and also float forward and Worpel as a mid we’d be laughing...

 

[marty36]

Maybe we should 'pass' on all our picks Marty

Reading redleg crows write up the averages of 100 games overall are horrible

So all I'm saying is don't believe the Hype




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[Redleg Crow]

Maybe we should 'pass' on all our picks Marty

Reading redleg crows write up the averages of 100 games overall are horrible
So all I'm saying is don't believe the Hype
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And yet sometimes a draft is good. Here's the third round in 2008:

35 Jamie Bennell - 87
36 Ashley Smith - 45
37 Zachary Clarke - 101
38 Matthew Broadbent - 161
39 Steven Motlop - 135
40 Mitch Robinson - 149
41 Todd Banfield - 53
42 Mitchell Banner - 19
43 Liam Anthony - 58
44 Rory Sloane - 165
45 Jarrad Blight - 0
46 Luke Rounds - 6
47 Rhys Stanley - 100
48 Nicholas Heyne - 3
49 Taylor Hunt - 105
50 Jordan Lisle - 23

7 out of 16 have played 100+, but 11 of the 16 are no longer on a list.

But cripes, it is hit and miss. The 3 players drafted before Sloane are no longer playing and the 2 after him aren't either. That is a recruiting team earning its money!

By comparison the 1st round that year:

14 out of 18 played 100+ and only 4 are no longer on a list. Yarran. Johnston, Cordy, Blease. And Yarran at least got to 100 games.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Seriously don't understand why Balta ain't valued higher, he is Rance MK2

I agree.. He does have a lot of Rance about him... he is also pretty handy around the goals too though...

Note: the footage freezes for a few seconds halfway through the vid.. keep watching it comes back!..

 

[Cockwomble]

I agree.. He does have a lot of Rance about him... he is also pretty handy around the goals too though...

Note: the footage freezes for a few seconds halfway through the vid.. keep watching it comes back!..

Yep want him, want him NOW

 

[Bearded Clam]

Yep want him, want him NOW

He actually looks like a pretty handy second ruckman too

 

[Glenny83]

If Worpel is still there at 39 surely we would be mad not to grab him... and a few in the media have him still being there in the early 40’s... all the footage I’ve seen of him is very impressive IMO he’s got a bit of Dustin Martin with his cheeky fend offs and strength mixed with a bit of Daniel Rich from the lions..

Bicks informed me a few weeks ago that Worpel would be one of those players that is physically ready to play in round one next year which would be a bonus.
I reacon if we could snag a player like Bolta at 12 who can play as a KPD and also float forward and Worpel as a mid we’d be laughing...

I can see why Worpel is rated for around our pick but I'm not convinced on him to be honest. I think his size is a big factor for him this year and his kicking while ok isn't high end. He played centre pretty much the whole game during the all-stars match and their midfield got toweled up. I tried to keep an eye on his clearance work and he's not nearly as good as say Zac Bailey, who could be around that 39 mark, who I'd love us to get.


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[Danger in Texas]

I can see why Worpel is rated for around our pick but I'm not convinced on him to be honest. I think his size is a big factor for him this year and his kicking while ok isn't high end. He played centre pretty much the whole game during the all-stars match and their midfield got toweled up. I tried to keep an eye on his clearance work and he's not nearly as good as say Zac Bailey, who could be around that 39 mark, who I'd love us to get.


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Bailey is an absolute gem, rate him at around the 15-20 mark. Unfortunately he isn't a chance to get to pick 39

 

[Glenny83]

Bailey is an absolute gem, rate him at around the 15-20 mark. Unfortunately he isn't a chance to get to pick 39

I rate him in the 20's but one thing in our favour is he doesn't have that back log of intel on him. Clubs would probably have to change their approach to take him earlier IMO. Cockatoo went early off the back of one game but he was on the radar for years before. I'm just hoping and clutching at straws TBH.


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[Redleg Crow]

So the consensus seems to be Fogarty, Clark, Bonar or Balta?

 

[Mego Red]

Isn't the problem with Balta that he's an athletic specimen, but doesn't have a football brain.

In this draft, I'd rather Higgins.

 

[GreyCrow]

Isn't the problem with Balta that he's an athletic specimen, but doesn't have a football brain.

In this draft, I'd rather Higgins.

Can you define what a football brain is?

 

[1990crow]

Isn't the problem with Balta that he's an athletic specimen, but doesn't have a football brain.

In this draft, I'd rather Higgins.

His highlights show he can mark and kick long and accurately. You can't teach those two. I think you can teach positioning, running patterns and leading patterns (Tex, Talia etc).
He looks a quality tall..

 

[The Sloane Ranger]

Isn't the problem with Balta that he's an athletic specimen, but doesn't have a football brain.

In this draft, I'd rather Higgins.

His decision making doesn't seem to be his strength at this stage

He also likes to get away from footy and doesn't seem to study the game or watch to much footy which sort of means he is purely relying on direct work at training and his coaches to improve his knowledge of the game

 

[Redleg Crow]

His decision making doesn't seem to be his strength at this stage

He also likes to get away from footy and doesn't seem to study the game or watch to much footy which sort of means he is purely relying on direct work at training and his coaches to improve his knowledge of the game

Sounds like a Nick Kyrgios type - not necessarily a bad thing, but requires very good mentoring and management, and could pay off big time .... or not.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I rate him in the 20's but one thing in our favour is he doesn't have that back log of intel on him. Clubs would probably have to change their approach to take him earlier IMO. Cockatoo went early off the back of one game but he was on the radar for years before. I'm just hoping and clutching at straws TBH.


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Clubs are all over him , he played well at every level this year under their eye inc NT in U18s then Allies + Norwood and school footy

He will be gone in 20s

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Can you define what a football brain is?

It's a definite thing that gives you innate ability to find the footy , kick goals , set them up or even defend

Ben Rutten had an elite footy brain with his positioning as a defender to make up for his shortfalls speed etc

Higgins Constable and Spargo are the 3 that have it in spades