List Mgmt. 2017 Draft Prospects

[Royal Doulton]

What is everybody's take on J.Stephenson? Is he likely to fall as reported? I find it strange that he was a lock for top half dozen.. now a heart condition is identified and he slips? Doesnt add up for mine...
Hard to get read on it... I still have saints taking him but starting to waiver on that now

 

[Wizard17]

fair call... hopefully Naughton is taken before 9 which would likely mean that one of Stephenson or Fogarty slip through..

Collingwood I think will likely take D.Fogarty so most likely Stephenson and then there is the thing with his heart.

Apparently there is a rumor that a couple of clubs have ruled out drafting Stephenson altogether which isn't a good sign for him going early.

 

[Wizard17]

What is everybody's take on J.Stephenson? Is he likely to fall as reported? I find it strange that he was a lock for top half dozen.. now a heart condition is identified and he slips? Doesnt add up for mine...
Hard to get read on it... I still have saints taking him but starting to waiver on that now

I'd be doing a hell of a lot of research on the condition he was diagnosed with before spending any early pick on him. If the risk is too high pass.

 

[doggies ftw]

Just say Stephenson slides and we don't have a problem with his heart. How high do you guys think his ceiling really is and how well would he fit us?

 

[Wizard17]

Just say Stephenson slides and we don't have a problem with his heart. How high do you guys think his ceiling really is and how well would he fit us?

Probably one of the best fits for us in the draft. High ceiling and is a very good forward.

 

[doggies ftw]

Probably one of the best fits for us in the draft. High ceiling and is a very good forward.

Yeah thought so. So his best attribute is his x factor around goal? Is he a bit Stringer like in that regard

 

[Northernsoul74]

Probably one of the best fits for us in the draft. High ceiling and is a very good forward.

Bloody tempting at 9.

 

[Northernsoul74]

All the talk seems to be that Stephenson is going to drop quite considerably because of that heart problem. Think the top few picks will go:

1 - Bris - Cam Rayner
2 - Freo - Luke Davies-Uniacke
3 - Carlton - Paddy Dow
4 - North - Andrew Brayshaw

After this there are a few possibilities but I think one of Collingwood or Freo will take Darcy Fogarty and it is possible one will take Aaron Naughton. Adam Cerra could go here or drop through if both draft on needs based.

After this I think St Kilda will go with two of Nick Coffield, Aiden Bonar or Hunter Clark. If Adam Cerra drops through I think they will pick him.

Then comes us who will probably go with our player X who will turn out better than them all


Naughton is the more natural footballer out of the both of them though. His reading of the play is as good as I've seen in a junior footballer.

I don't even have Brander in my most recent top 20 rankings...

What’s the likelihood of player X being there at 16?

 

[Pugz89]

Probably one of the best fits for us in the draft. High ceiling and is a very good forward.

I know you don't want to waste picks but given where our list is at, would you ever just take the chance and hope for the best on someone like JS?

 

[Gollo]

All the talk seems to be that Stephenson is going to drop quite considerably because of that heart problem. Think the top few picks will go:

1 - Bris - Cam Rayner
2 - Freo - Luke Davies-Uniacke
3 - Carlton - Paddy Dow
4 - North - Andrew Brayshaw

After this there are a few possibilities but I think one of Collingwood or Freo will take Darcy Fogarty and it is possible one will take Aaron Naughton. Adam Cerra could go here or drop through if both draft on needs based.

After this I think St Kilda will go with two of Nick Coffield, Aiden Bonar or Hunter Clark. If Adam Cerra drops through I think they will pick him.

Then comes us who will probably go with our player X who will turn out better than them all


Naughton is the more natural footballer out of the both of them though. His reading of the play is as good as I've seen in a junior footballer.

I don't even have Brander in my most recent top 20 rankings...

I highly doubt Rayner goes to Brisbane or Freo, regardless of what the mail says currently. He's a huge flight risk, even within Victoria - have heard that he only wants to play for Essendon - but an interstate team taking him would be nuts. I can't see Brisbane taking anyone other than Davies-Uniacke - Brayshaw would be too much of a reach and Rayner and Dow are flight risks. Pretty sure Rayner slips to the Blues.

 

[goodcop badcop]

Quote from the article on Stephenson

The Herald Sun knows of clubs that will now pass on Stephenson. They deem the potential emotional and liability risks too great.

“It’s serious,” one chief recruiter said.

“We haven’t made a final call, but it’s a big worry.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...r/news-story/3c26b236be04a65e79b8462ae18b8133

It's interesting that Sam Landsberger did that article, yet he never mentions that we're interested in him. Mentions North, Freo, Collingwood, Saints but not us.

 

[Northernsoul74]

I highly doubt Rayner goes to Brisbane or Freo, regardless of what the mail says currently. He's a huge flight risk, even within Victoria - have heard that he only wants to play for Essendon - but an interstate team taking him would be nuts. I can't see Brisbane taking anyone other than Davies-Uniacke - Brayshaw would be too much of a reach and Rayner and Dow are flight risks. Pretty sure Rayner slips to the Blues.

He’s entering the draft, how can he only want to play for Essendon? I get he may not want to leave Victoria but only the Bombers seems weirdly specific.
Twomey seems to think Lions have narrowed down to either Rayner or Brayshaw.

 

[dogwatch]

He’s entering the draft, how can he only want to play for Essendon? I get he may not want to leave Victoria but only the Bombers seems weirdly specific.
Twomey seems to think Lions have narrowed down to either Rayner or Brayshaw.

It's the logical progression.

Although players are not supposed to do it (because it's a form of draft tampering) a number of players have made it clear they wouldn't stay long if drafted to Gold Coast, Brisbane, etc. Paddy Dow is one I've heard of in this draft. The more this tactic succeeds the more likely that future draftees will push the boundaries even further. For instance Ed Richards with his strong Magpie heritage could say to clubs "pick me if you want but I'm off to Collingwood first chance I get". They know that in all probability they'll get no more than 2 years out of him.

I'm just speculating based on the above posts but Cam Rayner could be the first such case.

If so, it'll create a problem for the AFL, not only in sustaining the Queensland clubs (and perhaps GWS) but also in maintaining the line that the draft is one of the great instruments of equalisation.

How long until a club - rather than an 18yo player - takes it further and decides to exploit this? Let's just use Essendon as a hypothetical ... they go to Cam Rayner and say just tell 'em you're not interested in any club except us. Don't worry. We'll (cough, cough) look after you. Either Cam slips to Essendon in the draft (so they get him for way below what he's worth) or he crosses to Essendon two years later after refusing to sign a contract extension. Meanwhile he becomes a genuine star and an AA selection at age 20. But because he's only interested in Essendon the other club - the one that drafted him - gets bugger all out of Dodoro. Let's say a couple of second rounders.

I'm not saying Essendon would dream of doing anything illegal like that, but as a hypothetical you can see that it's collusion to undermine the draft. Pretty hard to police too. The AFLPA would probably side with the player on this (they always do).

 

[murphy's twin]

Bishop: “naughton at 9 is almost a lock”

 

[murphy's twin]

Also thinking that Richards will most likely last through to pick 16.

I’m happy with our future backline intercept power and run tick tick

 

[Struggle]

Bishop: “naughton at 9 is almost a lock”

Who is bishop and what does he know about our list management team?

 

[TiAn_]

It's the logical progression.

Although players are not supposed to do it (because it's a form of draft tampering) a number of players have made it clear they wouldn't stay long if drafted to Gold Coast, Brisbane, etc. Paddy Dow is one I've heard of in this draft. The more this tactic succeeds the more likely that future draftees will push the boundaries even further. For instance Ed Richards with his strong Magpie heritage could say to clubs "pick me if you want but I'm off to Collingwood first chance I get". They know that in all probability they'll get no more than 2 years out of him.

I'm just speculating based on the above posts but Cam Rayner could be the first such case.

If so, it'll create a problem for the AFL, not only in sustaining the Queensland clubs (and perhaps GWS) but also in maintaining the line that the draft is one of the great instruments of equalisation.

How long until a club - rather than an 18yo player - takes it further and decides to exploit this? Let's just use Essendon as a hypothetical ... they go to Cam Rayner and say just tell 'em you're not interested in any club except us. Don't worry. We'll (cough, cough) look after you. Either Cam slips to Essendon in the draft (so they get him for way below what he's worth) or he crosses to Essendon two years later after refusing to sign a contract extension. Meanwhile he becomes a genuine star and an AA selection at age 20. But because he's only interested in Essendon the other club - the one that drafted him - gets bugger all out of Dodoro. Let's say a couple of second rounders.

I'm not saying Essendon would dream of doing anything illegal like that, but as a hypothetical you can see that it's collusion to undermine the draft. Pretty hard to police too. The AFLPA would probably side with the player on this (they always do).

The AFL could shut this down by mandatory 3-4 year contracts for the first 2 rounds of the draft with a sliding salary from pick 1 down. E.g. pick 1 earns $1.6m over his first 4 years and pick 10 earns $800k, etc.

Draftees forcing trades after two years for unders is the actual problem (which may be reduced somewhat by mandatory 3-4 year contracts), but that won’t change until the AFL lets clubs trade players without player consent and clubs take a tougher approach to holding players to contracts. Also, incentivizing players financially for remaining with the team that drafted them/traded for them.

 

[batts66]

Who is the magpies Bont this year??? The one they really wanted, but someone from within the club choose to share???
I will start if you get what i am saying. Pick 6 Chris Judd

 

[AJARWA]

Not buying this naughton talk.

 

[doggies ftw]

Eughhhhh pleaseeeee no Naughton

 

[bobby2]

It's the logical progression.

Although players are not supposed to do it (because it's a form of draft tampering) a number of players have made it clear they wouldn't stay long if drafted to Gold Coast, Brisbane, etc. Paddy Dow is one I've heard of in this draft. The more this tactic succeeds the more likely that future draftees will push the boundaries even further. For instance Ed Richards with his strong Magpie heritage could say to clubs "pick me if you want but I'm off to Collingwood first chance I get". They know that in all probability they'll get no more than 2 years out of him.

I'm just speculating based on the above posts but Cam Rayner could be the first such case.

If so, it'll create a problem for the AFL, not only in sustaining the Queensland clubs (and perhaps GWS) but also in maintaining the line that the draft is one of the great instruments of equalisation.

How long until a club - rather than an 18yo player - takes it further and decides to exploit this? Let's just use Essendon as a hypothetical ... they go to Cam Rayner and say just tell 'em you're not interested in any club except us. Don't worry. We'll (cough, cough) look after you. Either Cam slips to Essendon in the draft (so they get him for way below what he's worth) or he crosses to Essendon two years later after refusing to sign a contract extension. Meanwhile he becomes a genuine star and an AA selection at age 20. But because he's only interested in Essendon the other club - the one that drafted him - gets bugger all out of Dodoro. Let's say a couple of second rounders.

I'm not saying Essendon would dream of doing anything illegal like that, but as a hypothetical you can see that it's collusion to undermine the draft. Pretty hard to police too. The AFLPA would probably side with the player on this (they always do).

Didn't the bombers "hypothetically" do exactly that with Elliott Kavanagh a few years back? I'm not saying that Essendon would do that, just that they did.

 

[dogwatch]

Didn't the bombers "hypothetically" do exactly that with Elliott Kavanagh a few years back? I'm not saying that Essendon would do that, just that they did.

Haha, I'd forgotten about that. Can't remember the details but it rings a hypothetical sort of a bell.
Turned out well for them. Played 12 games. Karma.

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

Didn't the bombers "hypothetically" do exactly that with Elliott Kavanagh a few years back? I'm not saying that Essendon would do that, just that they did.

Spot on, worked out well for them

 

[RedWhite&Blue]

Quote from the article on Stephenson

The Herald Sun knows of clubs that will now pass on Stephenson. They deem the potential emotional and liability risks too great.

“It’s serious,” one chief recruiter said.

“We haven’t made a final call, but it’s a big worry.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/a...r/news-story/3c26b236be04a65e79b8462ae18b8133

It's interesting that Sam Landsberger did that article, yet he never mentions that we're interested in him. Mentions North, Freo, Collingwood, Saints but not us.

Just discussed the Stephenson situation with a HRO at the Saints. Says that he is exactly what the Saints need (elite outside runner) but they will more than likely pass on him because of the heart risk. Stephenson’s Mum has the gene and his sister has the gene and they both play netball at the elite level. The condition can only be confirmed by a DNA test that won’t be completed until well after the draft so it’s a real roll the dice situation for the teams with picks 4-12ish. After those picks he is too talented to pass up but amongst those picks the players around him are of a similar standard so the thought is it’s safer to pass.
At the moment the Saints will pass on Stephenson and will take Coffield if he’s available.

 

[giblj]

Posted without comment.