2017 Draft thread

[Lions Lions]

Not at all, but that doesn't mean that every post needs to be delivered as if you are providing us inside information when you are actually just giving your opinion. People see through that sort of thing pretty quickly

Well it's based on solid info, but I don't have to say that and prefer not to say that in this forum.

 

[M Malice]

If Brissy don't want to take the risk on Rayner, "in my opinion" they would then trade the pick. IMO they won't draft somebody else first just because he fits the system and born in the bush and then watch Rayner get picked next and watch him star in the AFL straight off the bat while we spend two years developing another player in the NEAFL. For the record if we had finished 16th and had the 3rd pick we'd pick Dow or LDU. In this situation Rayner would be gone already #1 to somebody else.

Will be interesting to see how Rayner goes at the combine in the new style fitness assessment (IIRC yo yo test), it's about the only knock on him. If we take him I will be over the moon and happy that Noble and co. have assessed him and deemed him worth the often stated risk.

 

[Lions Lions]

Will be interesting to see how Rayner goes at the combine in the new style fitness assessment (IIRC yo yo test), it's about the only knock on him. If we take him I will be over the moon and happy that Noble and co. have assessed him and deemed him worth the often stated risk.

Brisbane as a destination has improved nearly overnight since Noble, Fagan and co have come into the club. It's chalk and cheese compared to this time last year. What they have done in 12 months is sensational and that's a big selling point to incoming youngsters and I do think they are now much better placed to pick vic metro players again as opposed to 2, 3 or 4 years ago.

 

[M Malice]

Brisbane as a destination has improved nearly overnight since Noble, Fagan and co have come into the club. It's chalk and cheese compared to this time last year. What they have done in 12 months is sensational and that's a big selling point to incoming youngsters and I do think they are now much better placed to pick vic metro players again as opposed to 2, 3 or 4 years ago.

Have you heard anything re his so called off field issues LL or do you dismiss them as unsubstantiated scuttle butt? I am sure we will investigate it.

 

[Lions Lions]

Have you heard anything re his so called off field issues LL or do you dismiss them as unsubstantiated scuttle butt? I am sure we will investigate it.

I'm sure the club will go through exhaustive avenues to help make their decision. Is it an issue blown out of proportion? Is their huge thruth to the rumours? Is it all crazy lies? I havent heard either way. If I do hear anything substantiated I'll share, but nothing so far. I would hope if your an inspiring top line AFL footballer that you would be squarely focused on that. Unfortunately that's a perfect world view and the world doesn't necessarily work that way.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

I'm sure the club will go through exhaustive avenues to help make their decision. Is it an issue blown out of proportion? Is their huge thruth to the rumours? Is it all crazy lies? I havent heard either way. If I do hear anything substantiated I'll share, but nothing so far. I would hope if your an inspiring top line AFL footballer that you would be squarely focused on that. Unfortunately that's a perfect world view and the world doesn't necessarily work that way.

And that's the point isn't it? They haven't made a decision yet and so no-one knows who they will pick, assuming we retain pick 1. Last year all the moves came in the last three months and the same could well happen again.

 

[Lions Lions]

And that's the point isn't it? They haven't made a decision yet and so no-one knows who they will pick, assuming we retain pick 1. Last year all the moves came in the last three months and the same could well happen again.

What I am saying is Rayner will go no.1 and I'd think it's very likely we keep the no.1 pick

 

[chopperduck]

I can easily see us trading down pick 1 if we can create another top 10 pick. Who knows if there will be interest or enough currency for those who are interested.

 

[WA Lion]

I can easily see us trading down pick 1 if we can create another top 10 pick. Who knows if there will be interest or enough currency for those who are interested.

All depends on how the club rates the draft and in particular the top 10 talent. If they don't feel there is a locked top pick, they would be more open to trading for sure.

Club was pretty clear that they wanted a Hybrid Midfielder i.e. not Rayner in his current guise, so if they think they can get Dow or Cerra or LDU with a slightly later pick (unlikely to get Dow as he appears to be firming as a consensus top 2 if not top 1) then more likely to pull the trigger if it also snares a 2nd top 10 pick

 

[Lions Lions]

All depends on how the club rates the draft and in particular the top 10 talent. If they don't feel there is a locked top pick, they would be more open to trading for sure.

Club was pretty clear that they wanted a Hybrid Midfielder i.e. not Rayner in his current guise, so if they think they can get Dow or Cerra or LDU with a slightly later pick (unlikely to get Dow as he appears to be firming as a consensus top 2 if not top 1) then more likely to pull the trigger if it also snares a 2nd top 10 pick

Could we take Rayner (fwd/mid) at #1 and work on a pure mid with our 2nd choice whether that be at #14 or whether we package #14 and #18 to move into the top 10 perhaps. We might have our eyes on a player they hope to pick up with #14 even that fits the inside mid role with pace we are looking to fill.

 

[M Malice]

All depends on how the club rates the draft and in particular the top 10 talent. If they don't feel there is a locked top pick, they would be more open to trading for sure.

Club was pretty clear that they wanted a Hybrid Midfielder i.e. not Rayner in his current guise, so if they think they can get Dow or Cerra or LDU with a slightly later pick (unlikely to get Dow as he appears to be firming as a consensus top 2 if not top 1) then more likely to pull the trigger if it also snares a 2nd top 10 pick

Agree, things can still change but there appears to be a top 4 emerging with most seeing Cameron Rayner as the number 1. ie. Cameron Rayner, Paddy Dow, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Adam Cerra then a gap to a rather large group of players like Jared Brander, Darcy Fogarty, Jack Higgins, Nick Coffield, Lochie O'Brien, Jaidyn Stephenson, Andrew Brayshaw, Charlie Constable, a lot depends on how far behind the top 4 our recruitment staff rate the second group of players.

Would they rather 2 of the 2nd group (maybe 3 with Ports pick included) or 1 of the top 4 and hope for a slider out of the 2nd group at Ports pick.

 

[WA Lion]

Could we take Rayner (fwd/mid) at #1 and work on a pure mid with our 2nd choice whether that be at #14 or whether we package #14 and #18 to move into the top 10 perhaps. We might have our eyes on a player they hope to pick up with #14 even that fits the inside mid role with pace we are looking to fill.

14 and 18 are the picks I can definitely see us trading. Perhaps for one more top 10 pick and then a couple of layer picks that get us Cameron and Ballenden.

Right now it looks like Ballenden is in the 14-18 territory, so I can imagine the club trying to get a pick that is virtually certain to be ahead of a bid for him, and then some later picks for trades/Ballenden

 

[WA Lion]

Agree, things can still change but there appears to be a top 4 emerging with most seeing Cameron Rayner as the number 1. ie. Cameron Rayner, Paddy Dow, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Adam Cerra then a gap to a rather large group of players like Jared Brander, Darcy Fogarty, Jack Higgins, Nick Coffield, Lochie O'Brien, Jaidyn Stephenson, Andrew Brayshaw, Charlie Constable, a lot depends on how far behind the top 4 our recruitment staff rate the second group of players.

Would they rather 2 of the 2nd group (maybe 3 with Ports pick included) or 1 of the top 4 and hope for a slider out of the 2nd group at Ports pick.

Yeah that top 4 certainly seems to be emerging and I would be keen to ensure we get 1 of those. After that will be the interesting aspect as you say

 

[mick1013]

I'm starting to cool on Dow a bit (still think he's the best fit though). Just don't see him as pick 1 material, but an argument can be made that no one else really deserves it either. He has good pace and attack of the contest but still IMO is a bit scrubby with his disposals in close and looks a bit rushed. I don't think he has the composure of a Cerra or LDU which is so important in the modern game with high pressure footy.

It's so even the top end and will be a massive job by our list strategist and management team.

I agree that he is the best fit for the lions and think he will be available at 3 or 4 so a north swap trade or something will give them Rayner and we could still get Dow at 4 (hopefully) or even trade with Carlton at 3? What do you think we will need to do to make that happen?

 

[Lions Lions]

I'd trade 14 and 18 for pick 7 and 43 with the saints if they would go for it.

 

[M Malice]

The trade I could see happening is pick 1 for the Saints picks 7 & 8 if they are really keen on Rayner or they could use it as part of the trade for Josh Kelly from the Giants.

If Paddy Dow is seen as our 1st priority being an inside midfielder who spreads from the contest which is what Chris Fagan has said we need. Or would be better off going for 2 of Constable/Brayshaw/Worpel as the inside bulls.

Edit- I like Lions Lions Suggestion above as well, probably a better idea.

 

[SizeMatters]

I agree that he is the best fit for the lions and think he will be available at 3 or 4 so a north swap trade or something will give them Rayner and we could still get Dow at 4 (hopefully) or even trade with Carlton at 3? What do you think we will need to do to make that happen?

I very highly doubt Dow will be at 4 though. We are hot on Cerra as well apparently and he could be there at 4. As you said it really depends if we rate Dow as a better prospect than Cerra + another top 15 player (assuming the trade gets us a top 15 pick). I'm personally conflicted on it . I think Cerra and Dow are fairly equal in terms of what they bring but I think Dow is easily the better fit for what we need currently.

 

[lionshine]

I'm warming to the idea of trading pick 1 for picks 7 and 8. If we were to do this I'd like to see us trade picks 14 and 18 for pick 5 or 6 as well.

That would give us a shot at three of the likes of Adam Cerra, Nick Coffield, Hunter Clark, Jaidyn Stephenson, Andrew Brayshaw, Jack Higgins, Charlie Constable, Joel Garner, Lochie O'Brien, Lachlan Fogarty, James Worpel or Matthew Ling.

Adam Cerra is a likely top 4 draft pick but is the most likely of the consensus top 4 to drop slightly imo.

The draft could pan out something like the following if we traded pick 1 for picks 7 and 8 and picks 14 and 18 for the Magpies pick 6-

Pick 1 St. Kilda Cameron Rayner
Pick 2 Gold Coast Paddy Dow
Pick 3 Carlton Luke Davies-Uniacke
Pick 4 North Melbourne Jaidyn Stephenson
Pick 5 Fremantle Jarrod Brander
Pick 6 Brisbane Adam Cerra
Pick 7 Brisbane Hunter Clark
Pick 8 Brisbane Nick Coffield

We'd have to manufacture some extra picks through some shrewd trading to trade for Cameron plus potentially others and also points for Ballenden. This is where Stef Martin may become expendable if he can net us a pick in the 25-35 range.

I'm still not convinced this is the best option for us. I'm still leaning towards keeping pick 1 and guaranteeing we get our hands on one of the top prospects. If we were to trade pick 1 for the Saints picks 7 and 8 though I'd want us to package up picks 14 and 18 for another top 10 pick like the example above to give us 3 top 10 picks and really help us bolster our midfield.

 

[BuntonRules]

Would not trade out of the top 4. No matter how much good milk you get, it ain't cream.

 

[lionshine]

Would not trade out of the top 4. No matter how much good milk you get, it ain't cream.

Normally I'd agree but outside of Rayner(Who supposedly does not wish to leave Victoria) I'm not sure the cream is much better than the milk this year. I still think I'd prefer to keeping our top pick but I'd be more inclined to consider trading it this year than I would most other years.

 

[Hollow Knight]

 

[charles202]

I just can't see us trading out of a position where we miss out on Dow seems too much of a good fit (speed and clearances). From what has been reported around here he has been a target for a long time before he shot up draft boards.

If pick 16 is a live pick then the talent pool seems so even that we can pick up a slider as our needs, in particular for midfielders, is still broad.

It's fun to dream of trades but sometimes just taking what falls to you is easiest and best.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

We butter keep our pick 1 then.

 

[lionshine]

I just can't see us trading out of a position where we miss out on Dow seems too much of a good fit (speed and clearances). From what has been reported around here he has been a target for a long time before he shot up draft boards.

If pick 16 is a live pick then the talent pool seems so even that we can pick up a slider as our needs, in particular for midfielders, is still broad.

It's fun to dream of trades but sometimes just taking what falls to you is easiest and best.

Yeah FWIW I'd be very surprised if we traded pick 1. I know the club has come out and said we'd be open to trading it but the majority of wooden spooners say that each season. I don't think the club will want to trade away the marketing tool that pick 1 brings. Advertising the arrival of the best youngster in the country sells hope to the members/fans.

 

[BangyBangy]

We butter keep our pick 1 then.

Our recruitment team has a lot to whey up.