2017 Draft thread

[TheZork]

How much time have you spent with Rayner to judge his character? Was in the Vic Metro leadership group and in interviews seems like a mature, level headed kid so he can't be too bad? We'll wait and see how he tests in the combine endurance wise. As for those saying "He's just as likely to turn into another Jake Stringer"(You aren't the only one to have said this TheZork so I'm not directing this at you personally) is that really such a bad thing? Stringer is such a dangerous forward when in form. He kicked 56 goals in 2015 and last year despite having off field issues and struggling with niggling hamstring injuries he still managed to boot 42 in what was considered a poor season which goes to show how highly regarded he is when in full flight. I think with Stringer it is no coincidence that his drop in form has directly coincided with his family life falling apart, splitting with his partner and spending less time with his kids. He is clearly lacking focus and you can easily tell that his mind is elsewhere out on the oval.

If Rayner turned out to be anything close to an in form Jake Stringer I think we'd all be pretty happy. I don't really see them as similar players though. Although Stringer can be explosive with a burst of pace his broken leg has impacted his ability to show that on a consistent basis. I see Rayner as far more athletically gifted in terms of speed, burst of pace, agility and vertical leap. I think as a forward Rayner projects more as a Dustin Martin when Dusty plays forward. Just super strong in the contest, virtually impossible to beat 1 on 1 with the added ability to be a big threat at ground level.

Obviously I haven't spent any time with Rayner to answer your first question.
But are you just going to ignore the fact that dozens people in the media who have met the kid have touted him as a flight risk?
Are you going to ignore the fact that one of our very own posters teaches at his school and he doesn't have the best reputation?
Are you going to ignore the fact that he runs an 11 beep test which most kids are doing by their mid teens?
Have you watched the interview where he's stoked that the beep test is out of the combine? (doesn't seem like great character to me)

As for the Jake Stringer comparison, yes that is absolutely a bad thing, why would we use pick 1 on a medium forward that can't go through the midfield? Maybe I could understand if we already had the midfield stocked, but we don't, so why would we go for a forward?

I sound like a broken record on the endurance, but I would be astounded if he becomes anything more than a 70:30 Forward. Take any group of teenagers with just average genetics, nothing special, just average and put them in the same environment that all the draftees have been in the last 2-3 years. They'd play/train a minimum of 3 times a week, well over the majority would be getting 11+ beep test results (Mathieson even got 12). I just don't think you understand how bad 11 is. When I was in year PE 11 at school quite a few years ago, I remember noting that every guy in the class ran 11+, many of which didn't even play sport.

I don't care how good he is, I just cannot get over the endurance, its laughably bad, I don't even know how it can be so bad when he would have played so much footy over the years, that just points to a combination of bad genetics and poor work ethic.

 

[lionshine]

Rayner will be an awesome player and we couldn't go wrong with a Stringer or Martin esque forward. Only issue for me is for a team screaming out to strengthen the midfield if he only presents to be a 80/20 forward/mid then I'm not sure he's a good fit for us. We really need to bolster that midfield. I guess considering our bookends are locked in it does give us some leeway as we will be able to continue to focus on the midfield over the next 3-5 years but with a top pick I'd really like a genuine mid. Eagerly awaiting Rayner's yo-yo results at the Combine.

We can nab another highly rated midfielder with pick 12-14 though and Rayner could yet become a full time, gun mid. I do think we lack scoring power as well and whilst the midfield is undoubtedly a big need I think we could really use another young gun alongside Hipwood capable of kicking a bag.

 

[lionshine]

Obviously I haven't spent any time with Rayner to answer your first question.
But are you just going to ignore the fact that dozens people in the media who have met the kid have touted him as a flight risk?
Are you going to ignore the fact that one of our very own posters teaches at his school and he doesn't have the best reputation?
Are you going to ignore the fact that he runs are 11 beep test which most kids are doing by their mid teens?
Have you watched the interview where he's stoked that the beep test is out of the combine? (doesn't seem like great character to me)

As for the Jake Stringer comparison, yes that is absolutely a bad thing, why would we use pick 1 on a medium forward that can't go through the midfield? Maybe I could understand if we already had the midfield stocked, but we don't, so why would we go for a forward?

I sound like a broken record on the endurance, but I would be astounded if he becomes anything more than a 70:30 Forward. Take any group of teenagers with just average genetics, nothing special, just average and put them in the same environment that all the draftees have been in the last 2-3 years. They'd play/train a minimum of 3 times a week, well over the majority would be getting 11+ beep test results (Mathieson even got 12). I just don't think you understand how bad 11 is. When I was in year PE 11 at school a quite a few years ago I remember noting that every guy in the class ran 11+, many of which didn't even play sport.

I don't care how good he is, I just cannot get over the endurance, its laughably bad, I don't even know how it can be so bad when he would have played so much footy over the years, that just points to a combination of bad genetics and poor work ethic.

I've ran many a beep test in my time and understand full well it isn't all that difficult to get a 12 or higher. As I said we'll wait and see how he tests at the combine but I think people are all quick to jump on the score of 11 in the beep test and label him as someone with extremely poor endurance and someone who won't be able to work on it and improve it and I feel that completely disregards the fact that he has played big midfield minutes in actual games of footy this season. Is it completely out of the question that Rayner was carrying some sort of niggle that limited his ability to put his best foot forward in that test? Or perhaps he had the flu and was physically cooked by 8 or 9 but pushed through for an 11? Who really knows, we'll have to wait and see how he tests in the combine.

As for the questions on his character, who are the dozen people in the media who have touted him as a flight risk? I know Brett Anderson has and it was mentioned in an article. That is all I have seen though. Next thing you know everyone on BigFooty is labelling him as a flight risk and it doesn't take long before that label sticks permanently. He probably does have a preference to stay in Vic, but I'd imagine most teenage draft prospects would prefer to remain in their home state. He may be a genuine flight risk who blatantly does not want to leave Vic, but no one truly knows that except for Rayner and those close to him. I'll trust our recruiters and Noble/Fagan to suss all that out.

 

[pulpdriver]

We can nab another highly rated midfielder with pick 12-14 though and Rayner could yet become a full time, gun mid. I do think we lack scoring power as well and whilst the midfield is undoubtedly a big need I think we could really use another young gun alongside Hipwood capable of kicking a bag.

Scoring power can never be highly rated enough, but for a team that already struggles with every single of facet of contested possessions and creating scoring opportunities we are pretty damn efficient once we get them. Just think we need to address the full time mids first and foremost.

Who do you like out of that mid tier 10-15 group for us as a full time mid option?

 

[TheZork]

I've ran many a beep test in my time and understand full well it isn't all that difficult to get a 12 or higher. As I said we'll wait and see how he tests at the combine but I think people are all quick to jump on the score of 11 in the beep test and label him as someone with extremely poor endurance and someone who won't be able to work on it and improve it and I feel that completely disregards the fact that he has played big midfield minutes in actual games of footy this season. Is it completely out of the question that Rayner was carrying some sort of niggle that limited his ability to put his best foot forward in that test? Or perhaps he had the flu and was physically cooked by 8 or 9 but pushed through for an 11? Who really knows, we'll have to wait and see how he tests in the combine.

As for the questions on his character, who are the dozen people in the media who have touted him as a flight risk? I know Brett Anderson has and it was mentioned in an article. That is all I have seen though. Next thing you know everyone on BigFooty is labelling him as a flight risk and it doesn't take long before that label sticks permanently. He probably does have a preference to stay in Vic, but I'd imagine most teenage draft prospects would prefer to remain in their home state. He may be a genuine flight risk who blatantly does not want to leave Vic, but no one truly knows that except for Rayner and those close to him. I'll trust our recruiters and Noble/Fagan to suss all that out.

Just because he's been able to play big midfield minutes in under 18's it doesn't mean he will be able to in the AFL, its a very different game. More than ever the modern game requires all 18 players to put pressure on, all it takes is 1 person not playing their defensive role and you get opened up.

Yes we'll wait and see on the endurance but I really doubt he'll test well at the combine for it.

I trust Fagan and Noble to assess his character as well, but at this stage even if he does pass the character test, I'd still be going for a pure midfielder assuming his endurance is as bad as its said to be. It would just be silly for us to go for a forward over a midfielder.

 

[lionshine]

Just because he's been able to play big midfield minutes in under 18's it doesn't mean he will be able to in the AFL, its a very different game. More than ever the modern game requires all 18 players to put pressure on, all it takes is 1 person not playing their defensive role and you get opened up.

Yes we'll wait and see on the endurance but I really doubt he'll test well at the combine for it.

I trust Fagan and Noble to assess his character as well, but at this stage even if he does pass the character test, I'd still be going for a pure midfielder assuming his endurance is as bad as its said to be. It would just be silly to go for a forward over a midfielder for us

No but it does suggest he is capable of registering a higher score than 11 in the beep test and perhaps that score from earlier this year was an anomaly and this whole endurance issue surrounding Rayner has been blown way out of proportion. FWIW I still think I'd prefer Dow, however, I really rate Rayner as a prospect and think we could really use a player like him.

 

[TheZork]

No but it does suggest he is capable of registering a higher score than 11 in the beep test and perhaps that score from earlier this year was an anomaly and this whole endurance issue surrounding Rayner has been blown way out of proportion. FWIW I still think I'd prefer Dow, however, I really rate Rayner as a prospect and think we could really use a player like him.

You could be 100% correct on all your points. My opinion is just based on all the information out there, which points to the fact his character and endurance aren't great. If his endurance turns out to be good and he passes the character test, then I absolutely think we should take him, that would make him the best player in the draft. However, from the information given I'm assuming that his endurance and character are poor, meaning that he'd be a forward (not our priority) and a flight risk.

 

[the starboy]

No but it does suggest he is capable of registering a higher score than 11 in the beep test and perhaps that score from earlier this year was an anomaly and this whole endurance issue surrounding Rayner has been blown way out of proportion. FWIW I still think I'd prefer Dow, however, I really rate Rayner as a prospect and think we could really use a player like him.

Long term lurker, but minimal poster; but I absolutely agree with your first point about a niggle/illness, and disregarding his beep if he's playing midfield in TAC cup. I'm young and run a 13-14 beep, yet can't run through the midfield in Senior country footy let alone TAC Cup.
It's a completely different type of fitness, and one I'm sure we will see a better reflection on for him personally after the new tests at the combine.

With regards to people peddling the rumour regarding his poor 'character'; 18 year olds (be it prospective professional footballers or not) have a social life, and do go out. In fact I'm close friends with a Sydney player, and most of those boys go out after most home games (seems to go okay for them) socialising builds culture, there is a limit and we've seen countless examples of individuals/groups who don't know it, but don't write someone off because they like to 'party'.
There is little substancial evidence other than someone who claims to be in 'the know' that he has an issue with his character- Rayner was in the leadership group at Vic Metro, and by all accounts is a charismatic well liked young man, so I hope our board don't get caught up in those rumours, and I'm sure Fages/Noble etc. will pick the best prospect with regards to fitting our list.

 

[Hollow Knight]

McCluggage and Berry interviewed at the B&F said they are on the Paddy Dow bandwagon. Vic Country boys have each other's back.

 

[briztoon]

McCluggage and Berry interviewed at the B&F said they are on the Paddy Dow bandwagon. Vic Country boys have each other's back.

Witherden as well at the Rising Star Award when interviewed by Cal Twomey for Road to the Draft.

 

[Lions Lions]

Obviously I haven't spent any time with Rayner to answer your first question.
But are you just going to ignore the fact that dozens people in the media who have met the kid have touted him as a flight risk?
Are you going to ignore the fact that one of our very own posters teaches at his school and he doesn't have the best reputation?
Are you going to ignore the fact that he runs an 11 beep test which most kids are doing by their mid teens?
Have you watched the interview where he's stoked that the beep test is out of the combine? (doesn't seem like great character to me)

As for the Jake Stringer comparison, yes that is absolutely a bad thing, why would we use pick 1 on a medium forward that can't go through the midfield? Maybe I could understand if we already had the midfield stocked, but we don't, so why would we go for a forward?

I sound like a broken record on the endurance, but I would be astounded if he becomes anything more than a 70:30 Forward. Take any group of teenagers with just average genetics, nothing special, just average and put them in the same environment that all the draftees have been in the last 2-3 years. They'd play/train a minimum of 3 times a week, well over the majority would be getting 11+ beep test results (Mathieson even got 12). I just don't think you understand how bad 11 is. When I was in year PE 11 at school quite a few years ago, I remember noting that every guy in the class ran 11+, many of which didn't even play sport.

I don't care how good he is, I just cannot get over the endurance, its laughably bad, I don't even know how it can be so bad when he would have played so much footy over the years, that just points to a combination of bad genetics and poor work ethic.

Is it possible he tanked the beep test ?

 

[Lions Lions]

The thing with Rayner is a lot of people are saying on here he is more a forward and is a 70:30 forward etc, I think and I have compared him with a recruiter, he is more likely within a couple of years to be a 75:25 mid. From what I have heard, plenty of recruiters believe he will be a full time mid once he develops a tank and that can take 2 years slowly progressing.

 

[Bucking Beads]

McCluggage and Berry interviewed at the B&F said they are on the Paddy Dow bandwagon. Vic Country boys have each other's back.

OK Hugh! We'll draft your mate Paddy if you sign this nice 3 year contract extension...

 

[cotter101]

The thing with Rayner is a lot of people are saying on here he is more a forward and is a 70:30 forward etc, I think and I have compared him with a recruiter, he is more likely within a couple of years to be a 75:25 mid. From what I have heard, plenty of recruiters believe he will be a full time mid once he develops a tank and that can take 2 years slowly progressing.

No one's doubting his playing ability.

 

[TheZork]

Is it possible he tanked the beep test ?

Definitely possible but then we go back to the 'having good character' point if he tanked it. We'll wait and see I guess

 

[Billy Puller]

Rayner only ran a shit beep test cause he didn't get a chance to twirl before the test.


I'm fully behind the Rayner bandwagon, let's get some more character into this club. Dustin Martin is a pleasure to watch and a refreshingly real human being.

Let's not get another robot, bit of ego is needed in this team. Rayner numba 1

 

[The Zork]

Would be interesting to know if the top 2-3 prospects in the mix have a clear preference between us and Gold Coast and whether it will influence their interviewing approach with our club.
I do feel for our neighbours, it really doesn't feel like a desirable destination at the moment.

 

[SizeMatters]

I think it's only going to get worse as well unfortunately. A lot of whispers about that Collingwood, Carlton and Hawks are going to be throwing a lot of cash around for Lynch. He's a loyal bloke but there's only so much shit someone can take...

 

[lionshine]

Tim Kelly had 24 disposals and 10 tackles and was seen as the catalyst for a mini South Fremantle comeback in the final quarter in their Qualifying final loss to the Peel Thunder today. I can see a team taking a punt on him with a pick in the 35-60 range in this years draft.

 

[Crawb]

Would be interesting to know if the top 2-3 prospects in the mix have a clear preference between us and Gold Coast and whether it will influence their interviewing approach with our club.
I do feel for our neighbours, it really doesn't feel like a desirable destination at the moment.

I was thinking about this. Since the top 2 clubs are Qld, top draftees can kind of anticipate that Qld might be a likely destination rather than getting a "shock" on the night. This could make the transition a little easier perhaps at least in the first month or so.

Also I think we've got a good young list and a lot more positive vibe from the Vic media compared to Gold Coast. The dirty laundry from the Ablett saga will likely get aired during the trade period too and it will be kind of hard for draftees not to notice.

I guess if they're dead set on coming home it's probably easier to go the Suns and treat them as a feeder club for 2yrs however.

 

[jackess]

The outrage over the academies seems to have died down completely. The new bidding process took away a lot of the advantage Sydney used to get Heeney. Also noticed on one of the draft power rankings that 20 of the top 25 were Victorian.

 

[mpal6]

McCluggage and Berry interviewed at the B&F said they are on the Paddy Dow bandwagon. Vic Country boys have each other's back.

Stack 'em up from country.

 

[BRAB]

The outrage over the academies seems to have died down completely. The new bidding process took away a lot of the advantage Sydney used to get Heeney. Also noticed on one of the draft power rankings that 20 of the top 25 were Victorian.

I'm sure it'll be back when another top 5 pick comes out of one of them.

When hipwood is potting 60 goals a year on the regular and Andrews is an AA defender I'm sure people will be complaining a lot too.

 

[Elixuh]

If DOW is the one that wins his own footy and has speed then sign me up.

 

[briztoon]

The outrage over the academies seems to have died down completely. The new bidding process took away a lot of the advantage Sydney used to get Heeney. Also noticed on one of the draft power rankings that 20 of the top 25 were Victorian.

Helps that all the Victorian clubs now have their own Next Generation Academies.

I expect there will be quite a few next gen kids next year, as well FS and Northern academy kids.