2017 Draft thread

[Crawb]

Sounds like everyone is happy then? The perfect trade

I think we've won the most from it now. Port Adelaide have just got par/haven't lost. Whilst Gold Coast are probably lost by giving up Pick 22 and 30 for Hanley and a late pick. But Gold Coast had a stack of 2nd round draft picks and had to trade some cos they couldn't use them all. They still lost, but I'd argue it's not as bad on paper as it seems for the Suns.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

After last nights result thought I'd put players into how I see the tiers forming, helps to see what talent could possibly be available.

Top Tier - Rayner, Dow, Stephenson, Cerra and LDU

Second Tier : Coffield, Constable, Fogarty, Clark, Brayshaw, Brander, Naughton, Higgins

The Next Tier (Hard to place) : Hayes, Balta, O'Brien, Garner, Worpel, Allen

Looks like a few decent prospects will be available that will appeal , even a Garner, O'Brien or Worpel in the next tier would be a good needs fit.

 

[lionshine]

I know some posters on here(Me being one of them) were keen on potentially trading picks 14 and 18 for another top 10 pick e.g. pick 5/6/7. Now that Port's pick is locked in as 12 would you guys still be keen on packaging picks 12 and 18 for pick 5/6 and potentially some picks in the 40's to help with academy bidding or trades? I think I'd be. It would ensure we get two high quality prospects before a bid comes in for Ballenden.

 

[SizeMatters]

At the end of the day i prefer Cam Rayner over Paddy Dow for what i believe we lack, that being a hybrid prospect. Someone who can play midfield as well as a general forward. In my opinion aerobic capacity can be developed and increased in a more professional environment, therefore becoming less of a issue in time. To me Cam Rayner is a special talent, who's skill set doesn't come along very often. Whereas, a Paddy Dow is easier to draft e.g. Luke Shuey, Adam Cooney, Ryan Griffen. If Dow ran a 2.82 in 20m sprint which he doesn't (Dow - 2.92), then maybe. Finally, you should never draft for need. Bad Idea. The best player available should always be drafted regardless. A No.1 draft pick don't come along very often if ever (e.g. 1998 - Des Headland / 19 years ago). Appreciate the selection we have (Nick Riewoldt, Luke Hodge, Bryce Gibbs, Tom Scully, Lachie Whitfield & Jacob Weitering).

Dow has a quick 0-5m but is devastating from 5m onwards according to Bishops stats. With some strength and sprint training he should be able to improve his 0-5m sprint times. He will be a powerful player after a few preseasons IMO.

All his vertical leaps are above average btw
20m - 2.916s
Agility - 8.046s
Beep 13.13

By the splits, his first 5m was ranked 36th overall in the TACCup, at the 10m mark he was the 7th fastest overall in the TAC Cup and his time of 2.916s was the 16th fastest overall.

 

[pulpdriver]

I know some posters on here(Me being one of them) were keen on potentially trading picks 14 and 18 for another top 10 pick e.g. pick 5/6/7. Now that Port's pick is locked in as 12 would you guys still be keen on packaging picks 12 and 18 for pick 5/6 and potentially some picks in the 40's to help with academy bidding or trades? I think I'd be. It would ensure we get two high quality prospects before a bid comes in for Ballenden.

I like the idea. Dow, Stephenson/LDU and Ballenden would be a great draft.

 

[POBT]

I'm all for getting multiple picks in the top 10 this year. Turn our two teens picks into a top 10 and I feel we're really well placed.

 

[SizeMatters]

I'm all for getting multiple picks in the top 10 this year. Turn our two teens picks into a top 10 and I feel we're really well placed.

Big call. Pretty even after the first 5 or so right to the end of the first round IMO. Personally would rather two bites of the apple unless we get wind that Ballenden will be bid on earlier than we anticipated.

 

[POBT]

Big call. Pretty even after the first 5 or so right to the end of the first round IMO. Personally would rather two bites of the apple unless we get wind that Ballenden will be bid on earlier than we anticipated.

My issue is that I suspect that clubs will have their favourites among the second tier, as well as guys they aren't keen on. It is just a gut feel but there seems to be a wide divergence of opinion on some blokes in that 6-20 range. The risk that you run by not trading down is having your preferred players snapped up earlier and having to settle for guys who you believe are a risk or who don't fit your list management strategy.

I'm also concerned about the Ballenden factor. His end of year performances have been pretty good in open company. Picks 1 and 7 plus Ballenden looks better than pick 1, 12 and Ballenden (or even pick 1, 19 and Ballenden). We'd be taking a risk if we hope for him to go after our second rounder.

 

[Leuy LongerCombo]

Big call. Pretty even after the first 5 or so right to the end of the first round IMO. Personally would rather two bites of the apple unless we get wind that Ballenden will be bid on earlier than we anticipated.

I have the same feelings, Ballenden really blurs the waters thou. I'm pretty confident that pick 12 will be a live selection for us. After the top 5 Rayner, Dow, Cerra, LDU and Stephenson, It looks like we'd have access to very similar talent, potentially paying pick 18 for our preferred player would be a decent premium to pay If the club sees it similarly.

Pick 12 might hold enough currency to get Fremantle interested, pick 5 and 40 we'd have access to another one of those top players and 40 would be handy currency for Ballenden. From Fremantle view if they're looking to sure up their KPP stocks they may still have access to Brander or Naughton with Hayes as a possible fall back option at 12. At 18 they could go local with Allen which should appeal.

 

[Scubaveg]

My issue is that I suspect that clubs will have their favourites among the second tier, as well as guys they aren't keen on. It is just a gut feel but there seems to be a wide divergence of opinion on some blokes in that 6-20 range. The risk that you run by not trading down is having your preferred players snapped up earlier and having to settle for guys who you believe are a risk or who don't fit your list management strategy.

I'm also concerned about the Ballenden factor. His end of year performances have been pretty good in open company. Picks 1 and 7 plus Ballenden looks better than pick 1, 12 and Ballenden (or even pick 1, 19 and Ballenden). We'd be taking a risk if we hope for him to go after our second rounder.

I'm not really sure how the academy bidding works so this could be really flawed logic.

Is there any chance Ballenden gets bid on in the first 6/7 picks though? If it plays out that way do we have to use our next available pick to take him? If that's the case aren't we better off using pick 12 to match the bid and still have pick 18 in our pocket?

Where as if we trade pick 12 and 18 for pick 7 say and there is a bid on him at pick 6 we would use pick 7 on him and not have 18?


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[DanT7]

I'd like us to draft Jordan Keras.

 

[SizeMatters]

My issue is that I suspect that clubs will have their favourites among the second tier, as well as guys they aren't keen on. It is just a gut feel but there seems to be a wide divergence of opinion on some blokes in that 6-20 range. The risk that you run by not trading down is having your preferred players snapped up earlier and having to settle for guys who you believe are a risk or who don't fit your list management strategy.

I'm also concerned about the Ballenden factor. His end of year performances have been pretty good in open company. Picks 1 and 7 plus Ballenden looks better than pick 1, 12 and Ballenden (or even pick 1, 19 and Ballenden). We'd be taking a risk if we hope for him to go after our second rounder.

I like trading down for another top 10 pick in terms of what we could get solely with the draft but I think we may use one of our first rounders to trade up for two second rounders for trades. If the rumours are correct we could have to find ways to bring in a Cameron, Cox, McKenna for example. Trading pick 12+18 for a top 10 will not allow us to do it unless we trade future picks which is possible but risky especially in a supposed strong 2018 draft. There are multiple ways to do this which is great for the club to have this flexibility.

 

[Chezz]

I like trading down for another top 10 pick in terms of what we could get solely with the draft but I think we may use one of our first rounders to trade up for two second rounders for trades. If the rumours are correct we could have to find ways to bring in a Cameron, Cox, McKenna for example. Trading pick 12+18 for a top 10 will not allow us to do it unless we trade future picks which is possible but risky especially in a supposed strong 2018 draft. There are multiple ways to do this which is great for the club to have this flexibility.

I see what your saying and in normal circumstances if we could get a good deal it would be great.

But, I think, if possible, it's best we try and trade up in this draft. We lack top tier talent. Every club has what could be considered as marquee players (we have only Beams and Zorko). Hipwood and Witherden certainly look like they could be elite down the track. If we could get 2 top 6 picks in before Ballenden I think it would help towards addressing this. Cameron, Cox and McKenna aren't taking us to the next level.

 

[Daniels Riches]

Great day of footy for the Lions yesterday. Big praise for the 2 Eagles!
Matty - for getting us over the line in the last quarter in the NEAFL Grand Final
West-Coast - for helping us net pick 12
The cherry on top was the fact that it was old mate Polec who gave away the free kick to Shuey!
No way we entertain our port pick for Cameron now.

 

[CarterS]

We have been pretty lucky the last couple of drafts, I'd expect a bid on Ballendon in the Top 10 this time around, and unfortunately we will have to use our 12 to match. Collingwood's first pick would be the one I'd be expecting. Otherwise someone will bid on him just to wind us up, knowing we will match.

 

[pulpdriver]

We have been pretty lucky the last couple of drafts, I'd expect a bid on Ballendon in the Top 10 this time around, and unfortunately we will have to use our 12 to match. Collingwood's first pick would be the one I'd be expecting. Otherwise someone will bid on him just to wind us up, knowing we will match.

Yeah, he's a top 10 pick. Pretty sure our department will trade accordingly though. We're in a very good position.

 

[Daniels Riches]

Yeah, he's a top 10 pick. Pretty sure our department will trade accordingly though. We're in a very good position.

Where can u see the earliest bid on Ballendon mate? I was thinking that Richmond would most likely place a bid with their first pick, but looking like he will be already off the table by then. Have u heard of any interest from any particular clubs apart from the pies?

 

[pulpdriver]

Where can u see the earliest bid on Ballendon mate? I was thinking that Richmond would most likely place a bid with their first pick, but looking like he will be already off the table by then. Have u heard of any interest from any particular clubs apart from the pies?

Pies screaming out for a quality tall but they probably need someone more ready made. I reckon Richmond are likely though. Assuming they haven't already had to match for Naish they're in prime position with needs and picks to have a crack. I'm not even close to a draft or list expert though.

 

[POBT]

I reckon the following clubs could potentially draft a tall: Pies, Freo, St Kilda, Richmond, maybe Dogs if Stringer goes.

 

[a mayes ing]

I reckon the following clubs could potentially draft a tall: Pies, Freo, St Kilda, Richmond, maybe Dogs if Stringer goes.

Don't think Freo would, McCartney, Kersten, Apeness, Taberner. Would think Saint have more pressing needs than a fwd, they have 3 l think

 

[WA Lion]

I reckon the following clubs could potentially draft a tall: Pies, Freo, St Kilda, Richmond, maybe Dogs if Stringer goes.

Yep - I'm really keen for the club (which I'm sure they are anyway) to explore turning 12 and 18 in to another mid top 10 pick and then some later picks for Cameron and Ballenden.

I suspect a bit will depend on Schache and Rockliff though - if one/both hypothetically leaves then we have additional picks to work with.

Would love to nab 2 of Dow, Stephenson and LDU, and then Clark or Worpel with a pick before Ballenden

 

[briztoon]

Even breaking a draft in to tiers, teams will have players ranked in order of perceived talent within the tiers.

Of course when players within tiers are ranked pretty even, team needs come in to play.

We certainly see this in this years draft.

Almost every draft watcher has Rayner ranked one, but many of the same draft watchers have us taking Dow.

Same with Fremantle and Collingwood. Some mock drafts have Fremantle drafting Naughton, even though most draft boards have ranked in the 15 to 20/25 range.

As already mentioned, Fremantle would be the first team to discus a trade with, picks 12 and ~18 should possibly give them access to Naughton & Allen.

Richmond might be the only team to possibly draft Allen.

 

[SizeMatters]

I see what your saying and in normal circumstances if we could get a good deal it would be great.

But, I think, if possible, it's best we try and trade up in this draft. We lack top tier talent. Every club has what could be considered as marquee players (we have only Beams and Zorko). Hipwood and Witherden certainly look like they could be elite down the track. If we could get 2 top 6 picks in before Ballenden I think it would help towards addressing this. Cameron, Cox and McKenna aren't taking us to the next level.

Don't think this draft is renowned for having top tier talent outside of the top 2 or 3. This is the trade/draft period to move on picks for needs and I totally disagree with your assessment that CC, McKenna and Cox wouldn't take us to the next step. If we could somehow turn a speculative mid/late first rounder of a weak draft into 2 mature bodies that fill urgent needs for our list going forward + a late draft pick for Payne we'd be stupid not to take it. Of course it's just rumours at the moment but CC + McKenna will set up our outside run for the next 7+ years and will certainly improve our list going forward.

 

[Chezz]

Don't think this draft is renowned for having top tier talent outside of the top 2 or 3. This is the trade/draft period to move on picks for needs and I totally disagree with your assessment that CC, McKenna and Cox wouldn't take us to the next step. If we could somehow turn a speculative mid/late first rounder of a weak draft into 2 mature bodies that fill urgent needs for our list going forward + a late draft pick for Payne we'd be stupid not to take it. Of course it's just rumours at the moment but CC + McKenna will set up our outside run for the next 7+ years and will certainly improve our list going forward.

Cameron is a spud. End of thread. Can run and tackle/pressure. That's it. McKenna has good speed and a good outside runner sure. Cox is still learning the game. Based on yesterday, we're better off playing Eagles than losing a draft pick for Cox.

Go to the draft and back our recruiting guys in. Someone like Worpel should be avaliable in the 12-18 range. I would much prefer to back in a 17year old with faults, rather than a 23 year old who has shown no signs of improvement in Cameron

 

[SizeMatters]

Cameron is a spud. End of thread. Can run and tackle/pressure. That's it. McKenna has good speed and a good outside runner sure. Cox is still learning the game. Based on yesterday, we're better off playing Eagles than losing a draft pick for Cox.

Go to the draft and back our recruiting guys in. Someone like Worpel should be avaliable in the 12-18 range. I would much prefer to back in a 17year old with faults, rather than a 23 year old who has shown no signs of improvement in Cameron

Yeh I agree Cameron hasn't lived up to the hype but he certainly brings what the modern game demands from small forwards. Tigers could win a premiership off the back of their smalls relentless pressure and tackling and it's something Fagan has been highlighting as a need for us. Agree to disagree then but I think fixing our most immediate and long term need is a better option than drafting a youngster at pick 12 in a weak draft.