2017 Draft thread

[briztoon]

Nice work....so tell me.....if someone bids on Payne at say 35 in this weak draft....can we cover that or need to go to futures?
Also if we want 1 pick in the Psd we will have to kill beams or close?

In my scenario where Ballenden is bid on at pick 29, yes we can cover a bid on Payne at 35 easily.

I would be genuinely surprised if another team bid on Payne inside the top 50.

 

[briztoon]

Surely Ballenden is bid on before that?

I'm looking at the first two rounds, and struggle to see which team will bid on Ballenden.

I believe with our trades with the Bulldogs and Tigers, that neither of those teams will bid on Ballenden. Really do not believe Gold Coast will bid either.

Geelong maybe at 22 or 24. North maybe at 23. West Coast at 21 or 26. GWS at 27 or 28.

 

[Dodongo]

Here's a depressing fact.
Since losing the grand final 13 years ago only 8 players we've drafted in the first round have remained on the list longer than the initial 2 year contract. Only 5 have made it past 3 years: Mitch Clark, Matthew Leuenberger, Daniel Rich, Sam Mayes and Marco Paparone.

Dodongo was going to make a big post about this and it's something Dodongo has been thinking for a while. Dodongo thinks that if nothing improves in 5 years and retention is still a problem, and the AFL don't introduce the draftees age to go to 20 or 21, then Dodongo would seriously try and work out a relocation back to Fitzroy. Dodongo thinks there won't be player retention then. Dodongo thinks there will be no future for us in 5 years in QLD if we can't keep players and instead of folding, this is an ideal scenario.

 

[Flea_29]

Let's move on quickly from the horror that was trade period.

Insert who you hope here:

1.
15.
18.

??. Ballenden

1. LDU
Looks to have all the tools
Two-way player

Others in the mix: I like Paddy Dow and C. Rayner

15. Hunter Clark
Good kick on both feet will add skill to our midfield
Good to get Hunter and LDU from the same TAC team

Others in the mix:Charlie Constable - Tall, tough midfielder with VG skills

18. James Worpel
I really like this kid, tough nut (blend in well with the two Robbos) and has good leadership skills.

22/23. Ballenden
I think a bid might come at 22 (GEEL) or 23 (NTH) - which will be covered easily with picks 40 + 44.

52. Payne
Kid can play

A haul of LDU, Clark, Worpel, Ballenden and Payne would be ideal

 

[Dodongo]

Dodongo wants Stephenson at pick 1. Dodongo doesn't give a shit about what our team needs ability wise. Dodongo wants to draft a player who has the potential to be a gun, who won't get home sick.

 

[Comeback Lions]

So far we have had Freeman, Clayton, Harwood, Janson, Rockliff and Schache leave (6 players)

So still a reasonable chance that both Beams and Close (as the last uncontracted players on the list) are moved on either with or without promises of being redrafted or rookied.

Likely draft scenario. 1/15/18 live. 40 and 44 match a bid for Ballenden (with any spare points becoming pick 60 in the draft or whatever), Pick 52 is a live pick.

Also note that delisting 2 would allow a list spot for the big key defender from the academy (Payne?) with a late pick, although would then mean we didn't have enough list spots to add a delisted free agent or upgrade a rookie etc.

Yes I agree, but there's one scenario you haven't considered. We take the first 3 players, use two picks on Ballenden with a pick sliding to the back of the draft. Use 52 on Payne or someone else and pass on the pick that slides to the back. That means we have a list spot to add a delisted agent or upgrade a rookie.

There is another possibility as well, if a bid comes late for Ballenden, say 30, and we match with 40 & 44, then we don't use all the points and get pick 45 back. In this case we would need to pass on 52, to maintain a list spot. Don't you just love numbers.

 

[BigHippy]

I'm looking at the first two rounds, and struggle to see which team will bid on Ballenden.

I believe with our trades with the Bulldogs and Tigers, that neither of those teams will bid on Ballenden. Really do not believe Gold Coast will bid either.

Geelong maybe at 22 or 24. North maybe at 23. West Coast at 21 or 26. GWS at 27 or 28.

Hopefully you're right!

I think we can be pretty confident he won't get bid on before 18. Couldn't see a bid in the top 10, then you have:
11. Giants
12. Crows
13. Eagles
14. Swans
16. Dogs
17. Tigers

Surely every trade comes with a "we'll do this deal if you don't bid on our player" type *wink*, which would rule out the Crows, Dogs, and Tigers.

If you assume "academy clubs" won't bid on each others players then it's just the top 10 + West Coast.

 

[M Malice]

Picks 2 to 18.
Dockers
Blues
Kangaroos
Dockers
Pies
Saints
Saints
Dogs
Blues
Giants
Crows
Eagles
Swans
Lions
Dogs
Tigers
Lions

I can't see the Dogs or Tigers bidding on Ballenden, there would have been an informal agreement not to with the Schache trade and the swap of picks. I don't think the Swans or Giants would being fellow academy clubs either. Maybe the Pies or Blues although you wouldn't think there would be a top 10 bid.

 

[Comeback Lions]

2016
Pick 12: Jy Simpkin
Pick 18: Sam Powell-Pepper (Berry was pick 17)

2015:
Pick 12: Charlie Curnow
Pick 18: Jade Gresham

2014:
12: Cory Ellis
18: Isac Heeney

2013:
12: Ben Lennon
18: Luke Dunstan

2012:
12:Kristian Jaksch
18: Brodie Grundy

Really not much difference between the two picks - if anything history says 18 has worked out better in recent times.

Like the comparison, although Heeney before the matching formula was brought in, and would have been a much earlier pick, I think. Kind of makes the hysteria about pick 12 or 18 or 20 for CC pointless.

 

[Mayestro]

Picks 2 to 18.
Dockers
Blues
Kangaroos
Dockers
Pies
Saints
Saints
Dogs
Blues
Giants
Crows
Eagles
Swans
Lions
Dogs
Tigers
Lions

I can't see the Dogs or Tigers bidding on Ballenden, there would have been an informal agreement not to with the Schache trade and the swap of picks. I don't think the Swans or Giants would being fellow academy clubs either. Maybe the Pies or Blues although you wouldn't think there would be a top 10 bid.

Cartlon are well stock for talls at either end and need mids, and at pick 6 Collingwood would be a bit early (as long as Knightmare is picking for them). I think our biggest risk is West Coast, but their midfield also needs refreshing. I'm assuming our trading partners and non Vic allies won't bid, though Richmond are desperate for some talls.

 

[Nunez]

Yep my bad re Heeney - but the point still stands and could go back even further. Typically trends would no doubt show a consistent quality in the top 5-10, then a lucky dip afterwards. Would love to see an in depth look into this, it would make for interesting reading.

 

[Comeback Lions]

https://player.whooshkaa.com/episode?id=148910

Noble mentioning on SEN that we have the option of going with a DFA before the draft. Unless we're planning to delist both Close and C. Beams, I can't see how we'll have a list spot given the picks we likely want to take in.

Because if we take 6 picks in and Ballenden essentially chews up points from 40 & 44, with pick 44 then sliding to the back of the draft, we only have to pass on that pick to be save a spot for a DFA. But you're right, we would have to delist Close and Beams to take 6 picks to the draft.

 

[jackess]

1. Brayshaw - Safe choice

15. D Fogarty - probably taken at 12 (don’t want 3 midfielders, play him forward)

18. Z Bailey - great attack on the footy and burst away from stoppages

and Ballenden and a couple of smokies

 

[Flea_29]

If I was taking an educated guess the top 20 may look like this:-
1. Lions: LDU
2. Frem: Hayes
3. Carl: Rayner (or Dow)
4. Nth: Stephenson
5. Frem: Naughtan
6. Coll: Brander (or Balta) need KPP
7. St K: Dow
8. St K: Cerra
9. WB: Coffield
10. Carl: Higgins
11. GWS: Brayshaw
12. Adel: Fogarty
13. WCE: Allen
14. Syd: Balta
15. Lions: Clark/Constable
16. WB: Garner
17. Rich: O'Brien
18. Lions: Constable/Worpel

Hence why I think that getting two of Clark, Constable, O'Brien or Worpel is a real possibility at 15 and 18.
I do believe that the top 12 looks set and that Frem will target Hayes and Naughton (real needs) with their top 2 picks.

 

[a mayes ing]

Dodongo wants Stephenson at pick 1. Dodongo doesn't give a shit about what our team needs ability wise. Dodongo wants to draft a player who has the potential to be a gun, who won't get home sick.

I can't get past Stephensen's terrible disposal. Plus we really don't know how he will go, Schache wanted to come to us. Plus think he is pretty interested in Nth Melbourne

 

[Comeback Lions]

I'm looking at the first two rounds, and struggle to see which team will bid on Ballenden.

I believe with our trades with the Bulldogs and Tigers, that neither of those teams will bid on Ballenden. Really do not believe Gold Coast will bid either.

Geelong maybe at 22 or 24. North maybe at 23. West Coast at 21 or 26. GWS at 27 or 28.

I'm with Britzoon, I think there's a big chance Ballenden slides a bit and we get the pick back in 40s or 50s range. I reckon from 26 onwards, doubt if Geelong or North will bid for him before that, why would they want him, and it is a risk if you don't really want him, that's not worth taking.

 

[Dodongo]

I can't get past Stephensen's terrible disposal. Plus we really don't know how he will go, Schache wanted to come to us. Plus think he is pretty interested in Nth Melbourne

Dodongo thinks you can't really think much about Schache wanting to play for us. Schache was introverted and lost a father at a young age so was always going to be closer to his family than most people. As far as Dodongo is aware, Stephenson is nothing like Schache.

 

[M Malice]

Save the date.

 

[peppy la pew]

Who do you guys think you will take at no 1

Rayner or UDL

No way we take Hayes and Naughton at #2 & #5, next year is the talls

 

[TheZork]

Someone on the Brissie boars reckons we will take Hayes @ #2 and Naughton @ #5

Most want UDL as #1

Wrong board Kiddo

 

[peppy la pew]

Wrong board Kiddo

Yeah edited to suit

 

[Comeback Lions]

If I was taking an educated guess the top 20 may look like this:-
1. Lions: LDU
2. Frem: Hayes
3. Carl: Rayner (or Dow)
4. Nth: Stephenson
5. Frem: Naughtan
6. Coll: Brander (or Balta) need KPP
7. St K: Dow
8. St K: Cerra
9. WB: Coffield
10. Carl: Higgins
11. GWS: Brayshaw
12. Adel: Fogarty
13. WCE: Allen
14. Syd: Balta
15. Lions: Clark/Constable
16. WB: Garner
17. Rich: O'Brien
18. Lions: Constable/Worpel

Hence why I think that getting two of Clark, Constable, O'Brien or Worpel is a real possibility at 15 and 18.
I do believe that the top 12 looks set and that Frem will target Hayes and Naughton (real needs) with their top 2 picks.

Like your work Flea_29 (and loved Garry Wilson). I'd love to get Clark at 15 and Worpel at 18. Higgins to Carlton at 10, might not happen...I like him, but not sure the love is universal. Clark could go easily go 8 9, 10 or 11. I think Worpel could go earlier too, maybe to Sydney or Dogs. As Jackess suggests Zac Bailey would also be a good get at 18, if Clark and/or Worpel are gone. We're in a good position with those 2 late first rounders.

 

[cotter101]

Ballenden will get a top 20 bid.

 

[TheZork]

Who do you guys think you will take at no 1

Rayner or UDL

No way we take Hayes and Naughton at #2 & #5, next year is the talls

Would almost definitely say it'll be LDU or Dow. Probably LDU

 

[M Malice]

Who do you guys think you will take at no 1

Rayner or UDL

No way we take Hayes and Naughton at #2 & #5, next year is the talls

The scuttlebutt is Davies-Uniacke who is the exact type we need.