2017 Draft thread

[luthor]

If the Lions take a ruckman in the first round ever again,

.....then I will microwave my membership

Hey Damo, am I doing this right?

 

[Lazza16]

The segment on afl.com today about Coffield makes him look very promising. But we hb flankers coming out of our ears. Still????????????

 

[Sproj]

The segment on afl.com today about Coffield makes him look very promising. But we hb flankers coming out of our ears. Still????????????

Nah. Every year AFL.com does the same thing and they make every player sound like they are going to be superstars.

 

[lioninthesand]

The segment on afl.com today about Coffield makes him look very promising. But we hb flankers coming out of our ears. Still????????????

Mids mids mids.. we need mids.

 

[Maboo]

My Bonars are usually so late the train has left the station.


Sent from my SM-N920I using Tapatalk

Peak hour?

 

[jonnobackpocket]

The Rayner video and interview convinces me he should be number one pick. Will be a gun then pretty much finishes the interview with "ideally would like to stay in Melbourne but if I go interstate I still get to play footy" or something similar. It's enough plant the seed of doubt. So frustrating but the fact is where the club is geographically may stop us from ever being premiers.

 

[charles202]

I've been on the Dow train for awhile but as the draft inches closer I'm drifting towards a combo of LDU/Bonar. LDU fits a need and Bonar is an intriguing prospect as a third tall forward and onballer, can't see him going before 15 based on his injury history.

 

[M Malice]

The Rayner video and interview convinces me he should be number one pick. Will be a gun then pretty much finishes the interview with "ideally would like to stay in Melbourne but if I go interstate I still get to play footy" or something similar. It's enough plant the seed of doubt. So frustrating but the fact is where the club is geographically may stop us from ever being premiers.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

Yeah thanks for pointing that out wasn't aware. Actually now I think about yes I was, I was there. My point was if we can't pick the best purely on where the club is based and it's a revolving door every two years it's going to make it impossible to win it. When we won those we had a few extra bucks to keep blokes who were fifty fifty to stay or go. We no longer have that thanks to Ed and it's too easy for players to go home. Esp with contracts meaning nothing and our willingness to be the good guys.

 

[M Malice]

Yeah thanks for pointing that out wasn't aware. Actually now I think about yes I was, I was there. My point was if we can't pick the best purely on where the club is based and it's a revolving door every two years it's going to make it impossible to win it. When we won those we had a few extra bucks to keep blokes who were fifty fifty to stay or go. We no longer have that thanks to Ed and it's too easy for players to go home. Esp with contracts meaning nothing and our willingness to be the good guys.

I'm confident that we can do it again but they are bloody hard to win, there's no guarantee that we'll win another one before I depart this mortal coil. I remember being at Brunswick Street Oval the morning after the 2004 GF and Lethal saying this is an extraordinary team and not to get used to this grand final stuff it could be another 20 years before we are here again.

Lethal looking more and more prophetic as time passes, I'm just thankful I'm not a Demons or Saints supporter or until recently the Bulldogs and Tigers.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

I'm confident that we can do it again but they are bloody hard to win, there's no guarantee that we'll win another one before I depart this mortal coil. I remember being at Brunswick Street Oval the morning after the 2004 GF and Lethal saying this is an extraordinary team and not to get used to this grand final stuff it could be another 20 years before we are here again.

Lethal looking more and more prophetic as time passes, I'm just thankful I'm not a Demons or Saints supporter or until recently the Bulldogs and Tigers.

Hopefully it's only 20 years that way not too much longer to wait!

 

[Lace Out]

Hell I'd settle to be dumped unceremoniously out of an elimination final within the next 5 years

 

[Jivlain]

Feel that Academy prospects often get rated below their natural level. It’s like the overhanging go-home prospect unconsciously knocks them down a few picks in people’s minds. Feel if he was a Vic Metro kid he would be ranked way higher.

Most of the draft commentary is just people regurgitating groupthink. I do find it interesting that many do not rate him, perhaps I’m missing something.

That doesn't seem to mean that they get drafted earlier on the night than in the phantoms. Here I've compared the academy/FS players in HPN's Consensus Phantom Drafts from 2015 and 2016 to their actual position on draft night:


(I didn't include the 2014 draft as the different bidding system made academy picks a lot more predictable).

Even if you were to eliminate Sproule as an outlier (consensus at 42.9, eventually prelisted as a cat B rookie, counted at the bottom of the ND+PSD+RD), academy/fs bids come an average two picks after their phantom consensus position.

 

[Lion Lad]

The lions used the bunch strategy last year recruiting guys from the same team - Vic country. Could they do it again with the Haileybury connection? LDU, Bonar and Constable? All 3 attend the same school do they not? Would make the transition north a little easier..

 

[briztoon]

The lions used the bunch strategy last year recruiting guys from the same team - Vic country. Could they do it again with the Haileybury connection? LDU, Bonar and Constable? All 3 attend the same school do they not? Would make the transition north a little easier..

It's like half the first round went to Haileybury this year.

 

[BulldogMurray]

The lions used the bunch strategy last year recruiting guys from the same team - Vic country. Could they do it again with the Haileybury connection? LDU, Bonar and Constable? All 3 attend the same school do they not? Would make the transition north a little easier..

Please NO! Hate Haileybury.

Bulldog 'SKOBS' Murray

 

[xplo]

I expect ballenden to be picked before 15 even if it is just to force us to bid so we don't get 3 top 20 and ballenden. Would appreciate if the league would put the word out to let him slide in light of our current positon. A Gary ablett style equalization measure.

If you're in a race, tactically, you care about the runners near you, and between you and first more than those behind you. If you're 4th, who cares if 18th goes to 14th?

So, if there are fresh 'resources' being doled out (draft talent) and you CAN'T get it all yourself, you want it to go to where it hurts you the least - the lowest ranked sides.

Sure, eventually those lowest ranked sides become a threat, but right now the Adel, Richmond, GWS, Cats, etc are most focused on not going backwards relative to each other.

In 2018, Ballenden at, say, Sydney is a bigger potential headache for them than Ballenden at Brisbane.

 

[Gadzorks]

If you're in a race, tactically, you care about the runners near you, and between you and first more than those behind you. If you're 4th, who cares if 18th goes to 14th?

So, if there are fresh 'resources' being doled out (draft talent) and you CAN'T get it all yourself, you want it to go to where it hurts you the least - the lowest ranked sides.

Sure, eventually those lowest ranked sides become a threat, but right now the Adel, Richmond, GWS, Cats, etc are most focused on not going backwards relative to each other.

In 2018, Ballenden at, say, Sydney is a bigger potential headache for them than Ballenden at Brisbane.

That's exactly why I was pissed off with Adelaide over the Charlie Cameron trade. We are dead last and have been there for years with a geographical problem ( Adelaide isn't vic but has a much stronger afl culture than here) and the arguable best team in 2017 is going tough at us. Playground bully picking on the weakest. May they become eternal chokers.
Go port!!! be the best sa team.

 

[Hollow Knight]

That's exactly why I was pissed off with Adelaide over the Charlie Cameron trade. We are dead last and have been there for years with a geographical problem ( Adelaide isn't vic but has a much stronger afl culture than here) and the arguable best team in 2017 is going tough at us. Playground bully picking on the weakest. May they become eternal chokers.
Go port!!! be the best sa team.

At the end of the day, we were poaching one of their players. Hard to claim we were being "picked on".

If a club is poaching our contracted players, I want us to drive the hardest bargain possible, regardless of where the other club is on the ladder.

 

[Lions Lions]

If Brisbane are smart they will take Rayner and put him up with Luke Hodge, then draft his mate from the Western Jets Fogarty (who can also play) at either 15 or 18 so he's got a mate straight off the bat. Brissy culture has turned so much in one year. If this kid is the star many people (inc. myself) believe, offer him a stupid deal halfway through his first year that would be hard to say no too and back in our cultural growth and back in a Hodgey or Dayne Beams to take him under the wing.

 

[Lions Lions]

Rayner is the most exciting proposition we can attain at our club since Johnathan Brown was drafted.

 

[Lions Lions]

The lions used the bunch strategy last year recruiting guys from the same team - Vic country. Could they do it again with the Haileybury connection? LDU, Bonar and Constable? All 3 attend the same school do they not? Would make the transition north a little easier..

My guess is Constable will go top 10-11, won't be there at 15, but yes Bonar could be there at 15. Am hoping we look at Nathan Murphy at 18 if he's still there who's also Hailebery lad. He is a good athlete, is highly skilled and can be the classy athletic 3rd tall back or forward we desperately need. If Rayner doesn't go #1 it will be surely LDU. But I don't think we'll draft purely on need (pure mid) with someone of Rayners talents available. Am sure Rayner will be full time mid by 22, with 70 games or more under his belt off half forward.

 

[spotthedog1]

My guess is Constable will go top 10-11, won't be there at 15, but yes Bonar could be there at 15. Am hoping we look at Nathan Murphy at 18 if he's still there who's also Hailebery lad. He is a good athlete, is highly skilled and can be the classy athletic 3rd tall back or forward we desperately need. If Rayner doesn't go #1 it will be surely LDU. But I don't think we'll draft purely on need (pure mid) with someone of Rayners talents available. Am sure Rayner will be full time mid by 22, with 70 games or more under his belt off half forward.

Lot of people on the Lions board talking up Bonar, but he isn't getting that sort of attention elsewhere. Still not ranking in phantoms. Twomey did one on the last day of trade period, and he didn't make the top 15.

I'd like him - there's probably some potential there if he doesn't reinjure. Has all the markings of a bigfooty fave regardless of any substance though. Wouldn't be surprised to see him drafted around 15. Also wouldn't be surprised if he goes at 25. Don't think he's much chance for top 10.

 

[pod17]

Based on nothing other than the draft videos, it appears to me as if Rayner has the attributes required to have the most impact on games. I wouldn't mind that pace, mark and kick in our forward line. That said, LDU and Dow also look to be great prospects and with those three all being in the frame for pick one, I think we will be happy no matter what come draft day. As always, I am looking forward to reading Quigley et al's analysis of players closer to the draft.

With Rockliff gone, I feel as if it is essential we draft a mature age prospect with one of our later selections to help reduce the burden on the likes of Mathieson, Keays etc as they increase their midfield minutes in 2018. As others have said Miles would be nice, but he seems most likely to take the one year deal on offer at the Tigers. Who are the state level players that would be able to come in and play a role? Whilst Jansen obviously didn't work out, I liked the club's thinking. Perhaps there is another from left field (either a state league or another AFL list) that we have been linked with?

 

[BigHippy]

Lot of people on the Lions board talking up Bonar, but he isn't getting that sort of attention elsewhere. Still not ranking in phantoms. Twomey did one on the last day of trade period, and he didn't make the top 15.

I'd like him - there's probably some potential there if he doesn't reinjure. Has all the markings of a bigfooty fave regardless of any substance though. Wouldn't be surprised to see him drafted around 15. Also wouldn't be surprised if he goes at 25. Don't think he's much chance for top 10.

FWIW Bishop just did a phantom (based off "gut feel/inside info/guess work") and had Bonar going to the Saints at 8.

He also commented about Carlton's pick 10 that "some sources say this is the furthest Bonar will get with the Blues unlikely to let him get past".